marketfellow

marketfellow

02/25 As mentioned in previous 02/20 notes that S&P gave us clear reversal signal. Yesterday breakdown became reality. This gap-down breakdown is severe because it could be turning point of the decade long bulls into bears. Today's follow-through is another confirmation that rebound is not there. Much stronger sell-offs are coming. Next support is 2830.

marketfellow

02/24 Three stages up, three stages down. After Nasdaq top-out last week breakdown today, it would be important to know how low it will slide until meaningful support or rebound level. Based on previous three channel patterns, next support level should be around 8555, then 7695. Please note that earlier straight up pattern could make downtrend fast and strong.

marketfellow

02/21 Gold miners are ready to shine when crossing final line 30-31. Double Cup-with-handle patterns are solid foundation for potential long uptrend.

marketfellow

02/20 Short rising wedge pattern finishes today with potential doji reversal. This is the second try after broken uptrend channel late January. Please note that short pattern after extended rally means exhaustion.

marketfellow

02/18 The third breakdown shall come today for Nasdaq climax run series. Notice this time uptrend duration is much shorter compared to previous two times. Previous breakdown level 9400 and 8600 can serve as potential rebound or support level. However, these levels are fragile because of lack of testing and extended in nature. Therefore, watch out potential sharp...

marketfellow

02/07 Finally, long-waiting Doji Reversal candlestick pattern appears on DJIA after extended, low volume rally. Erratic, wild actions in the past few weeks created more confusions for market participants. But, it should be wise to watch closely for potential final top-out after 10+ year bulls market. We do not have many chances in our lifetime to participate this...

marketfellow

Nasdaq climbed near 2000 points in about 4 month period. Recent gap-down was reversed with gap-up (island reversal) to run another record high today. Tesla, Apple, Microsoft, Amazon remind us about year 2000 dot com bubble from their climax run behavior. However, climax is the strongest rally ever so it is impossible to know exact day for topping out. At this...

marketfellow

01/30 Dow Jones is struggle to rebound above 29000 where it broke its 4-month trend line. Final trigger level for full scale downtrend will be 28400. It is expected that high intensity sell-off could occur at that level.

marketfellow

01/30 S&P broke its four month uptrend. Upper bond and lower bond were defined by yesterday high and today low. Since range is narrow, new trend will begin soon when either boundary is violated.

marketfellow Updated 

01/27 China fatal disease begins to spread out. Combing with extended rally in the past 3-4 months, major reversal and breakdown produces ideal entry point for short / put position.

marketfellow

01/24 Major candlestick pattern on three black crows appear on Nasdaq with channel breakdown pattern. Uptrend is over and downtrend starts.

marketfellow

01/23 (updated) Double Parallel Channel pattern shows extreme bullish bias. But party will finish when lower boundary is broken. When it happens, it offers low risk entry point for short/put position.

marketfellow

When the second channel is broken, downside momentum may pick up quickly.

marketfellow

Regression trend breaks offer resistance level. Previous top and bottom shows rebound and support level. Assuming downtrend is on its way unless resistance is broken with new high. Nasdaq chart provides a clear picture on all these.

marketfellow

MACD indicator is one of the most useful indicator for trend following traders and investors. Its parameter (12,26,9) is very suitable for medium term traders where trading time frame is among from couple weeks to 1-2 months. This DJIA example gives us precise timing for enter and exit long position based on MACD crossing points and divergence signal.

marketfellow

Volume is the only indicator can provide hint for price future action. It is important to watch how volume behaves compare to breakdown and rebound in order to determine the strength of rebound. In this case marked, breakdown showed extreme high volume (use 50 DMA on volume) but rebound came very light weight. Thus, it is reasonable to assume rebound is more...

marketfellow

Since SPY broke its uptrend, it is reasonable to use Fib to measure its strength. Assume 61.8% (304) or 50% (300) to be its target.

marketfellow

DJIA shows its bullish status in all time frames. Particularly, DJIA is able to rebound on 50 DMA line yesterday with today's gap-up. Thus, bullish bias stays there until broken on 50 DMA. Uptrend channel also describes its strength well. Only concern is that DJIA is tool bullish using distance of 50 and 200 DMA lines as reference.