micmuc

micmuc

It seems unlikely we set a new higher high before revisiting the daily 100 moving average, given the long time it has taken since the last time we did so. Some further sideways action seems possible though.

micmuc

Many seem to believe the bull-market has started in full glory and have been loading up on leveraged longs. Wouldn't be too sure of that. On the logarithmic chart we're at a strong resistance from multiple perspectives and a retrace seems likely. Close-Up: Cheers

micmuc

Not necessarily recommending to open shorts, but it certainly seems sensible to take some profit on longs

micmuc Updated 

The bear market might still be alive if we reverse here

micmuc

Only once before price kept rallying after hitting RSI80 despite RSI subsequently declining (i.e. "bearish divergence") as long as it has last few weeks. That once before was May 2017 and back then the music stopped after 42 days. A correction of 40% followed. Since hitting RSI80 on April 2nd of this year we have been rallying for 38 days already despite RSI...

micmuc

I expect a weekly close below 5300, so that both the bull and bear narratives are kept alive. This is in the interest of the big guys, independent of what longer term direction their interests may align with; - If they want up, they'll make the most money by first attracting extra retail shorts at such slightly lower levels - If they want down, they must avoid...

micmuc

Last time Bitcoin climbed while the Alts went down, a correction followed that amounted to 2 times the Bitcoin climb. I don't think the current situation is sustainable for much longer. Either way, the higher we go, the bigger the correction.

micmuc

They usually move side-by-side, but sometimes they don't. Last time we saw this divergence, we crashed hard shortly after (Please note prices are indexed so they fit on the same chart)

micmuc

Stop hunt finished, we're going down now

micmuc

As per the above, I have closed my longs and am short now..

micmuc

Update here as my previous posts have all been very bullish but for later reference I want to log that I have turned direction now. Main reason is that it feels as if the market / TradingView has become excessively bullish. Even former permabears are predicting 7k+ prices now and often when there's so much conviction, true value lies up for grabs for the...

micmuc

The big question for all those comparing the current bear market to the 2015 bear market is: Where are we? Point #1 or #2? Will we reject the 50 weekly EMA? Or break it? My belief is that we are are at point nr. 2 already and will break the 50 weekly EMA upon what can essentially be called the first attempt. Why? A. Having the same happen as in 2015 would...

micmuc

Last few days/weeks ETH lagged behind BTC because of two strong resistances. Now these are both broken, ETH will likely play some price catch-up. Target: 270 Back-ground to the resistance lines:

micmuc

Many seem to think that the current high RSI is unsustainable, however they forget that in a short period of high RSI one may miss out on a lot of gains. In fact, every time RSI broke 82 in Bitcoin's recent history, a rally always followed that took us at least an additional 43% higher within a matter of weeks. Those rallies took us to temporary tops after...

micmuc Updated 

Last five times BTC broke out over the RSI 80 level, a rally followed taking us at least 23% higher. It therefore seems more likely than not that we will overall continue up coming days/weeks and even touching 8000 by the end of April would not be too much out of the ordinary.

micmuc

..we haven't seen more than a baby rally For a rally that celebrates that the bear market is over, I expect it to go much further. Both BTC and ETH will probably close to double compared to their rally-starting point (BTC: 4200 x 2 = 8400; ETH: 140 x 2 = 280) before we see another wave down. If you think we'll see a correction any time soon, think again. Who...

micmuc

Or at least due for a strong correction? You're completely wrong. The meaning of this rally is that the bear market is over and that is much more meaning than the other two rally's highlighted above. For that reason we'll see a rally that brings us *at least* as far. The bulls just rallied from 140 to almost 180 but have an ATH of $1550 in the back of their...

micmuc

Ethereum hasn't broken it's resistance yet, but the pool of short stops lying above this resistance is undoubtedly as big as the short squeeze pool Bitcoin had above its resistance (that got broken earlier today). Coming days we'll probably see increasing pressure on this resistance and eventually it'll break like it did for Bitcoin. Target: ETH $210, although...