mintdotfinance

mintdotfinance

Treasury yields represent the ROI that investors can expect from buying U.S. government debt. Higher yield signals lower bond price and lower yields point to higher bond prices. So far this year, yields have eased chiefly due to Fed’s intention to slow the pace of its balance sheet runoff. Potential recession concerns are also weighing down on yields. Yields...

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Corn entered 2025 on a strong note, rising 37% from its multi-year low in August. Strong export demand for U.S. corn and adverse weather in South America supported a longer-term recovery. Then came the Trump tariffs. Retaliatory measures from China, Canada, and Mexico have driven prices down 9% since February, raising concerns about the future of U.S. corn...

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Yellow metal prices have soared. It has been setting several new all-time highs with futures trading just shy of the USD 3,000/oz level. However, gold has struggled to breach past the crucial mark despite multiple attempts. Some data points suggest that the rally in gold might be losing steam even though fundamental demand drivers remain intact. A nuanced...

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Henry Hub Liquified Natural Gas (“LNG”) prices are roaring back, surging in February as frigid temperatures, falling inventories, and soaring LNG exports fuel a bullish rally. With US storage dipping below the five-year average for the first time since 2022 and technical indicators flashing strength, does the rally have more room to run? LNG RALLIES AS COLD...

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One month into his presidency, Trump has injected fresh uncertainty into oil markets. His rapid-fire policies aimed at boosting production, imposing tariffs, and pushing for conflict resolutions in the Middle East and Russia—are reshaping the energy landscape. His unpredictable and bold approach to trade has left markets on edge. Bearish sentiment is being...

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Not a single macro portfolio manager was fired for adding gold to their portfolio over the last two years. Such has been gold’s stunning performance. Will Gold’s ascent continue? Narratives and numbers signal unstoppable and solid bull run in gold for now. BULL CASE REMAINS INTACT AND IS INTENFISYING This paper will not delve much into fundamentals. We...

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The Nasdaq-100 has led this cycle, driven by U.S. economic resilience and an unprecedented investment surge in artificial intelligence and cloud infrastructure. However, risks are emerging from overvaluation, excessive AI spending that has yet to translate into revenue, and geopolitical uncertainties tied to the Trump administration. With the Nasdaq-100 trading...

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Bitcoin prices surged on President Trump’s inauguration day (Jan 20), reaching an all-time high of USD 109,000. However, since then, prices have stagnated. Recent tariff announcement has driven a sharp selloff. Optimism about a crypto-friendly Trump administration continue to fuel bullish sentiment, but the lack of concrete regulatory guidance has limited...

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What goes up eventually comes down. This is even more true for oil prices amid a range of forces at play. The recent rally has been popped by significant headwinds facing crude oil prices. WTI Crude Oil (“WTI) has trended down sharply amid sluggish demand and a surplus in supply. Global oil consumption has remained tepid, with China's economic recovery slower...

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“Gold is money. Everything else is credit” said John Pierpont Morgan some 100+ years ago. Gold is limited in supply. Much of what can be mined has been dug up. Gold bugs opine that the only way for gold prices is up as fiat money continues to be printed with nothing but institutional promises backing them. As a result, not only is the price of gold inching up,...

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How often do US equities deliver 20%+ annual returns sequentially? The S&P 500 index representing a broad selection of US listed firms generated 24.2% in 2023 and 23.3% in 2024. Source: Visual Capitalist So, what is in store for 2025? Analyst consensus points to a 10% upside in 2025 given strong economic fundamentals, AI-led capex and productivity gains,...

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Bitcoin prices are on fire. It has surged 129% YoY with anticipation surrounding re-election of Donald Trump as the POTUS for the 2nd time. Trump is regarded as the “most pro crypto” President. Trump is poised to usher in a crypto friendly policy framework aimed at accelerating institutional adoption and positioning Bitcoin (“BTC”) as a cornerstone of the American...

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Outlook for crude oil prices in 2025 is a complex interplay of various factors. China’s fiscal & monetary policies, Trump’s energy agenda, OPEC+ strategies, and geopolitical developments will collectively sway oil prices. For now, the outlook for 2025 remains bearish. Analysts expect persistent oversupply, driven by rising non-OPEC+ production. Demand growth will...

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Henry Hub Natural Gas (US LNG) prices have surged 46.2% since November 2024, driven by colder weather forecasts, rising European gas prices, increased feed gas to U.S. LNG facilities, and expectations of stronger domestic and European demand. US LNG prices typically climb in winter as U.S. heating needs spike, with the December-March period marking a net...

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After a politically charged November, bond markets have shifted their gaze back to economic fundamentals, setting the stage for a crucial Federal Reserve meeting on December 17. Recent data—including a robust jobs report and rising inflation—have reignited debates over long-term yields and the Fed’s future rate trajectory. With the Fed’s dot plot and 2025...

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Size begets size. Records are being shattered. US Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) have attracted >USD 1 trillion inflows YTD 2024 for the first time in history. Pro-business policies under President-elect Donald Trump continues to entice investors into US equities. US stocks are at record levels. Is that a concern? Yes. But, unlike other rallies which tend to be...

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If you cannot beat them, join them. Activist funds are astute investors. Considering their investment strategies to position one’s portfolio can often lead to credible positive returns. But mind the risk as with any other investing strategies. Activist funds are circling around specific Japanese stocks that have significant potential to unlock value from...

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Rates & REITs move inversely. Higher rates dampen REITs performance. Declining rates favour REITs returns. With rates easing, are REITs at the cusp of recovery? What does 2025 hold for US real estate? The answer is best captured in two words - "Cautiously Optimistic". 2025 Commercial Real Estate ("CRE") Outlook - a survey by Deloitte - shows that ~90% of...