mintdotfinance

mintdotfinance

What rises, must fall. What comes down, goes up again. This rings most true for crude oil prices. Both secular and seasonal trends are at play in crude oil prices. Demand for oil moves in tandem with global economic activities. Key secular trends impacting oil markets over this decade was covered in our previous paper . These range from falling demand from...

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“We are not addicted to oil, but our cars are”, said a former CIA Chief, James Woolsey. That addiction is on the decline as we pen this paper. Love it, or hate it, but you cannot ignore it. Crude oil powers the planet. When global economy stutters, oil prices plunge. Midway through 2023, crude oil demand appears wobbly on recession overhang and shaky economic...

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In our previous paper , we outlined how investors can use CME's Micro S&P 500 Futures to hedge beta exposure and extract pure alpha. The paper referenced that the Super Sevens stocks (Amazon, Apple, Google, Meta, Microsoft, Nvidia, and Tesla) will continue to outperform the broader S&P 500 index. Not only do these stocks benefit from passive investing and ESG...

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Imagine this. Dark skies, earth tremors and thunder roars. Shelter is top priority. Size matters in a crisis. When the tsunami strikes and lightning splits the sky, investors shudder in fear; But the super seven stand tall, shielding investors from the fury. Dramatic metaphors aside, we truly live in unprecedented times. Risk lurks everywhere. List is endless....

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In global finance, everything is relative. For now, there is no good answer to the perennial question: If not for the US dollar, then what? That is why, despite all its flaws, the dollar remains the ultimate haven currency. And the US Dollar Index (“DXY”) measures the performance of the US Dollar against a basket of six major currencies of USA’s major trading...

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Corn is a versatile crop. It is used in a variety of ways. Corn is a major source of food for humans and animals. It is also an input in industrial products, such as ethanol and plastics. According to the FAO, in the past year, over 1.1 billion tons of corn was produced worldwide. Gross production value stood at $192 billion, second only to sugarcane (1.8B tons)...

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Not too long ago, Gasoline prices rattled American car drivers with a price tag of USD 5 a gallon. And now, much to their delight, gasoline prices have eased to USD 3.50 a gallon. Slump in crude prices which influences gasoline has plunged by one-third over the last twelve months. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate ("WTI") trades around USD 70. Rattled US...

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Corn prices have fallen 14% since the start of 2023. The latest USDA report points to further downside. Corn prices are expected to fizzle with expectations of a bumper harvest combined with tepid demand. The USDA expects a record harvest of 15.27 billion bushels. The 2023/24 forecasts signal rising corn supply boosting ending stocks to their highest level since...

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Some people create their own storms. And then get upset when it starts to rain. US Debt Ceiling drama is akin to a soap opera that never ends. Debt ceiling issue is not new. Why bother now? Political polarisation in the US has got to unprecedented levels. The showmanship could tip over into a political nightmare. It could send economic shockwaves with impact...

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Soybeans are one of the most versatile and important agricultural commodities in the world, consumed extensively by humans, livestock, and industry. Soybean prices have an undeniable impact on the global economy and their importance is only increasing with the rapidly growing bio-diesel industry. In our previous paper Heavy Exports Weighing Down Soybeans , we...

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One thing about tables, they turn. This time last year, the dollar was unrivalled. Now, it is being challenged amid a banking crisis, recessionary fears, and a debt ceiling drama. Having stepped up on the rates faster than the rest, the US Fed’s combat against inflation fuelled a dollar rally . It now finds itself between a hard place and a rock. Many expect the...

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Despite sharp inflation, the Bank of Japan (BOJ) left YCC unchanged on March 10th. This was Haruhiko Kuroda’s last meeting as BOJ Governor. Japan is still struggling to stoke growth at risk of sustained stagflation. Hence, his decision to leave rates intact was no surprise. Kuroda left the YCC unchanged. Analysts expected him to scrap the YCC so that the new...

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Buying financial assets in dips provides an inbuilt margin of safety. Enriching that trade is a currency that is hovering at its near lowest in a decade. Expected equity gains compounded with Yen that is anticipated to strengthen will strongly propel alpha from the proposed trade setup in Japanese equities. The P/E ratio based on next 12-months earnings in...

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Amid serious pushback, Chicago Board of Options Exchange (CBOE) went live on 26th April 1973. Options are now a standard tool for portfolio risk management. Not so, back then. They were seen as gambling instruments for reckless speculators. Shortly after CBOE launch, Fischer Black, Myron Scholes, and Robert Merton provided a mathematical model for computing...

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Soybean is among the world’s most traded crop. It is used in various industries. Soybean drives global food prices. It can tilt trade balances of an entire nation. This paper describes the importance of Soybean. It lists key producers, consumer and maps the harvesting cycle across the calendar by top producing countries. Given rising Brazilian exports, higher...

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Economists make forecasts to make weathermen look good. Trying to forecast trends in complex systems is never easy. As with weather, financial markets are influenced by a myriad of factors which can make prediction akin to gambling. Time in the market beats timing the market so a far safer bet is building a diversified and informed portfolio. As mentioned in our ...

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In times of crisis, investors rush to safety. When risk shows in places of safety, bank runs begin. One's pain is someone else's gain. Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) & Signature Banks' combined assets at $300 billion is witnessing a flight to safety. At $300 billion, it is trivial relative to $23 trillion within the American banking system. Remember that the FDIC...

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DBS is positioned uniquely at the intersection of both India and China to gain from growth in both countries. Facilitating capital flows out of China, continued rising footprint in India, digital asset presence, a trusted bank in Singapore which is emerging as the Swiss of Asia, DBS has more than one source of tailwind powering its upward flight. Specifically,...