mljones

mljones Updated 

BitFink posted a very clever way to use RSI divergence on long term BTC to find tops and bottoms of the macro 4 year structure: I was looking at using this on shorter time frames and it seems like it's especially useful for finding the exit in conjunction with an elliot count. In this example once you have your 4 wave candidate you can look at the symmetry on...

mljones

CL continues its long standing orbit of 56. For daytrades buying pullbacks during upward trends is probably going to be a good strategy. Previous uptrends back to 56 have been a bit choppy so looking to buy double bottoms that re-test the low of the day might also be a good intraday strategy. I would not be buying the high of the day unless it's a very specific...

mljones Updated 

Adjusting projection for spring/summer top due to fact that halvening will affect it. Previously in 2016 there was a big peak 22 days before the halvening and lots of opportunity to get in at lower prices. Using ghost bars also maps to about the same $17k price I had before. I am expecting a parabolic move up into the mid teens and will be scaling out a bit. I...

mljones Updated 

2020 seems very bullish but it is actually only at the FLAT stage of the 4 year cycle. If you look at the opening price of each year you can find which part of the 4 year cycle we're in. Year Open price Increase Stage Trade End Of Year? 2012 5 Buy 2013 13 289% BULL Buy 2014 732 5529% SUPERBULL Sell 2015 321 44% DUMP Buy 2016 431...

mljones

This corrects mistakes I made in part 1. There are 4 stages to the cycle (bull, superbull, dump, flat). Graphing them out shows that the 4 year cycle defined by the halfing pattern is possibly decelerating. Also in the previous post I made the mistake that this is a FLAT year, it is actually a BULL year. In the middle of the chart it's easy to see the 4 year...

mljones

Looking at how LTC responded to its halving to plan for the 2020 BTC halving. BTC previously peaked 22 days before its halving but LTC peaked 44 days ahead of it. This suggests that halvings are getting traded away at a faster pace and it might be harder to select the exact date. The megatrend indicator seems to have been doing a pretty robust job of trading...

mljones

Have my eye on a long for eth where a lot of fibs converge and a potential 4 wave entry might be brewing. 4 wave signals have been doing great for me lately so this caught my attention. It also maps about to the region where the 15 minute 50x liquidation level on bitmex would be which is something I haven't used before but looks like it has potential. As usual...

mljones Updated 

I am long from a 1 minute opening range breakout but it looks like there is kind of a bull trap in the order book around 9600 or so. This is also a major fib level and a point where wicks had met in both directions previously so price could have a hard time getting back through it. I have about a 13 expected RRR on the first target for my trade and when it's...

mljones Updated 

BNB is one of my favorite things to trade. It's already at the shallow .786 fib that would be an expected retrace region for cryptos in a bull market. BTC is not yet at its .786 so BNB will probably retrace a bit farther until BTC get there. This is one I will probably scalp the move frequently over the next day or two long. Plan is to wait for BTC to get to its...

mljones Updated 

It looks like BTC actually hasn't completed the impulse that started at 6400 since the current 5 wave has only printed 2 of the expected 3 waves. Given that we're in a bull market and impulses tend to retrace to the .786 of the overall impulse we can get estimates for areas to watch for intraday reversal on the next couple wave completions. My current list is...

mljones

Eth traded past the expected .786 support fib but is printing a rejection wick meaning this is a signal to look for bottoming formations like double bottoms and head and shoulders. My intraday bias is to look to buy the last test of the day low, I am not really interested in buying breakouts because the adverse volatility will make it hard to have a small stop...

mljones Updated 

I am highly bullish eth but this opening range breakout short popped up from a script so I opened a small futures position on it and am watching to see if it hits my longer term .786 buying zone near 250. The original setup had a 6.45 RRR but I moved to break even around 10:20 after it had printed a rejection wick on the 1 minute chart showing it was probably...

mljones

During bull markets cryptos target the .786 rather than .618 for pullbacks. In this case on eth it maps to the big round number $250. I have all my long term positions built so this will not be an area for large trades for me but I will be watching it for intraday scalps from the low of the day to the top of the day.

mljones

During bull markets cryptos tend to only retrace to .786 of an impulse. I am already have my long term position built so I am not really looking for any big trades here however the 9640 region will be an area I will be watching on much smaller intraday time frames for scalps long. I might or might not keep a little portion of these scalps that are winners to hodl...

mljones Updated 

Looking at the 2017 bull market start the first couple impulses only pulled back to the 1.5 extension, it wasn't until price had actually doubled that it finally pulled back to the usual 1x extension of the 3 wave during the impulse. The lession is that when it looks like BTC is shifting gears from bear to bull market to be aggressive on the first wave of...

mljones Updated 

This is an idea that popped into my mind after watching BitFinks recent macro trade strategy at Taking the peaks and slopes of the last two bull markets as points to define a Gann fan gives the next fan line intersecting exactly with ghost bars projected from the previous bull market. This intersects next summer at $280k. I don't think it will go that far but I...

mljones

Macro cycle trade on 6 month intervals. Still haven't finalized my plan to get back in but it will probably just be the 16 week donchian high. Really not interesting in tracking smaller pullbacks on smaller timeframes, I am coming to the point of view that the power law corridor is probably the most profitable timeframe.

mljones Updated 

The top of this wave is likely to be $12k and it will likely pull back only to $10.5k. BTC is in an extended 5th wave of an Elliot wave. Comparing this wave to the waves from the start of the 2017 bull market (see attached charts) I am expecting the correct extension from the 3 wave to be 1.9x which puts the top of the 5 wave at about $12k. These bull market...