motleifaul

motleifaul

The move down gained momentum and it seema that we can see substantial lower rates now.

motleifaul

Yesterday's red candle is an engulfing one. That's why I prefer he downside. May be we will see an upward correction first. So if you go short now already don't set the stop to tight.

motleifaul

It is nothing special just an expected move to the lower side of the range again. The overall trend remains bearish. But as we remain within the range the risk is acceptable.

motleifaul

Purely technically speaking I would say that you watch out for a technical correction. Another rise should be possible until around 27.50 which is the low of December 2006. But then take into account that this sharp rise is not from another world. It is -whatever the reason of the breakout of the more than 5 year old range might be- the end of an ABC-wave June...

motleifaul

No new high created yet suggests to me a correction here first.

motleifaul

Target is the either the midline of the Raff Channel or the lowline of the Donchian Channel or even the Summer low. We are in a sideward market with a slight downward bias.

motleifaul

I expect a correction of the upmove to what was a pivot point in the daily chart. It may take us back to the former highs of 29/30th Oct. which will serve as supports now.

motleifaul

We are still within the cloud. That's why it's risky to go short. Nevertheless the downward movement is intact and I suppose that the 50% of the small wave will be done at least. This also very close to the lower Bollinger border. If that border won't extend, then the movement will halt there.

motleifaul

There is some room to the upside now, at least for a retracement.

motleifaul

Point D was surpassed by far. And so were the Donchian Channel' s and the pitchfork's boarder. We got a falling RSI divergence. So I am afraid Amazon will not hold in the sky and fall back until point D.

motleifaul

I suppose that we are at the end of the yellow ABC. This will result in lower Gold until mid November. I prefer this as we are just under the cloud and at the upper line of the falling Schiff pitchfork. A bullish scenario would be that we are on the way of violet CD which would take us almost up to the 2 year old former major support from where the previous long...

motleifaul

There is still room to the trend line.

motleifaul

It is possible now that the 31 will be tested now again.

motleifaul

As for my part sold some against Yen. The Japanes hold over 1 Trillion USD US debt. If they only would sell part of it... If this is going to become a D-wave then the Greneback may fall below 96 an even lower.

motleifaul

This is a multipivot - hidden and unhidden(Ackerman won't like). 1. It is a Mid-June-resistance, 2. an Ackerman's Halfpoint, 3. the upper line of a pitchfork, 4. the bundary of a Donchian Channel. All not exactly 7 times but if tomorrow we do not rise up, then the RSI will begin to fall out of an oversold position and perhaps the 4-day MA will be passed. Then it...

motleifaul

but in this case... perhaps the trend will be friendly enough.

motleifaul

I got a prliminary use of Ackerman's idea before I realized the whole theory. After the 25 % Retracement has been taken out I assume that a downmove is on the way. The pivot is a Fibonacci extension that is a former high of the last trading hour of a day. Once it worked as you can see. Let me see now if it works a second time.

motleifaul

All signs still favour a continuation of the trend prevailing.