mtb1980

mtb1980

10yr Corn outlook: 1 thought (of many I have) on the potential course of the corn market for the next 10 years. I feel the job of the market is to find a price high enough to ration future demand. Could be 7.80, maybe 8.50, or even 9.50. The potential is there for any of those numbers to mark a major swing high for Corn. The higher that mark is nearby, the...

mtb1980

The past couple of recessions have been preceded by a 24 month 200% run up in Crude Oil. I am Not using the covid crash low but the recovery low from Nov 2020 for showing Crudes 200% (+) gain so far. I fear the Soaring energy could continue for a bit yet and couple that with other commodity prices soaring it will be a hard road for our economy going forward. ...

mtb1980

Continuous Crude Oil - Weekly: Price action turning lower at weeks end. Using the most recent Swing high to swing low retracements has crude falling short of the 162% primary target at 99.61. The lagging indicator line (on the Ichimoku) is attracted to previous price action. **The lagging indicator does not drive future price action.... Think of it like a...

mtb1980

S&P 500 vs its stocks above the 200 day MA: Bottom chart shows the S&P since 2008. The recent run up on the chart hides many of the details on this weekly chart. The chart on top, tracks the percentage of stocks above their 200 day Moving average for stocks that make up the S&P 500 . In April of 2021, 96% of the S&P stocks traded above their 200 day MA. Currently...

mtb1980

Cont KC Wheat - Weekly: Some indecision the past few weeks with price action working above the Blue Tenkan and below the red Kijun lines. Upside targets remain at 8.75 to 8.92. A breakout above the 8.92 high has targets up to 9.84. Support is 7.43 with further retracements at 7.07 and 6.51.

mtb1980

November22 Soybeans – Weekly: New Crop beans quickly moved up to fill the primary (162% retracement) target at 14.14. I usually wait for confirmation of a swing high before running retracement targets for support, this market is moving fast. What to do??? There is still time in February to lower the insurance average. Look at Short Dated puts to get through...

mtb1980

March Soybeans - Daily: Trying to measure upside targets on beans seams futile on a daily scale….. But we try From the May21’ Swing high at 14.45 to the Nov21 Swing low at 11.93, March22 Beans filled the recent target at 16.01. On the more precise scale on the right, we look at the consolidation before Monday’s gap higher to measure a primary target at 15.86...

mtb1980

Soybean – Weekly Cont: Price accelerated from the 50% retracement and resistance level at 14.24 up past the cloud and quickly filled the next primary target at 16.12. Last spring beans spent a few weeks above 15.75, but with light volume. No telling if beans will chop around into a consolidation pattern to give us time to better guess a direction, or if it...

mtb1980

Looking at the same parameters as we did for the Corn: I didn’t show a 200% or 300% rate of change as I did with Corn. Instead I show that it would take a 107% rate of change to match the 2012’s 17.89 high. **A 200% gain would place Beans in the mid $20’s….

mtb1980

December 22 Corn - Weekly: So far new crop corn has done a good job staying above the blue Tenkan line at 5.60. The most volume by price is in the 5.45-5.60 area. This could eventually act as a magnet to pull price down to…. The primary target at 5.78 has been filled. Targets above at 6.05, 6.24, and then 6.49.

mtb1980

March 22 Corn - Daily: The uptrend in March Corn has found upside pivots against the 162% retracements of each previous leg down (Shown with the grey boxes). Using the recent 6.42 swing high and 6.10 swing low, we can identify the 6.62 Target as the latest Primary target filled. 6.74 is the next target higher. We will redraw retracements should we make another...

mtb1980

Corn – Weekly Cont: Price action working above the supportive Cloud, blue Tenkan line, and downtrend line. Target above at 6.84. Primary target at 7.08 and then last year’s high at 7.35. ** 162% retracement target at 8.82 **

mtb1980

**Please do not take this as a projection or extreme bullish stance. This Market is sensitive to major up and down moves that will eventually leave many surprised by the high and the low it will leave behind. The quarterly chart shows extreme highs being made in the past 50 years. The current Corn market shares some similarities with the 06’-08 and the...

mtb1980

Continuous Hogs- Weekly: Currently plotting against the February contract. Uptrend lines off swing lows, and downtrend lines off swing highs. Creates areas to watch for action and reaction points. The Red uptrend line off the Covid Crash low is trying to maintain the overall strength in Lean Hogs. A firm break below could find support at any of the dashed...

mtb1980

Cont KC Wheat - Weekly: Retracements on the Left are from the 08’ High and the 19’ Low. Keep an eye on them on this trend up. The current leg has us between the 8.92 pivot and the 7.81 pivot. A move lower will look for support at the red Kijun line around 7.35. A move above the 8.92 high would next target a leg higher to 9.61…

mtb1980

November22 Soybeans – Weekly: A break above the down trend line is encouraging, but Nov22 beans still remain in consolidation (for Now). Previous years High to Low retracements should encourage some initial sales from 12.50 to 13.10. Initial Upside potential with Primary target up to 14.14, Downside risk below 11.00…. May be good to look at Short Dated Puts...

mtb1980

March Soybeans - Daily: March beans showing a strong move from 11.93 to 13.84. The daily chart shows support at the blue Tenkan line and near last week’s low of 13.34. Further support is the red Kijun line at 13.04 and then the uptrend line. Risk at 11.91 and lower. Targets above at 13.84-13.91, 14.16, and 14.45. Any New bullish sentiment could find targets...

mtb1980

Soybean – Weekly Cont: The High to Low Cycle appears complete (for now) with the break above the downtrend and 24% retracement. Beans filled the 38% target with a 13.84 high. The close last week is concerning as it left a doji like formation that could be cause for a change in trend??? Beans need to get above 13.84 (preferably a weekly close) to negate this...