mtb1980

mtb1980

Current Market Structure: **(Like Corn) Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range (IMO) from 10.00 to 12.00. Currently risk has been to the upside and inflationary threats elevated, keeping beans elevated as well. There are to many variables...

mtb1980

December 22 Corn - Weekly: From 2014-2020 Corn traded within a more definable market structure, 3.00-4.50(ish). During this time I would run previous years High to Low retracements on new crop contracts and place initial targets at retracements under 100% and hope to fill targets up to 127%. We are currently in the beginning stages of developing a new market...

mtb1980

March 22 Corn - Daily: March Corn broke above the downtrend line and filled a Major Primary target at 6.15 with its 6.17 high. Last week’s 5.93 close matches the pivot high we are currently using for retracement targets, and it is resting against a current uptrend line that began in mid October. Also, the Heaviest amount of volume by price is between 5.75 and...

mtb1980

Corn – Weekly Cont: Price action last week hit 3 major areas of resistance. (Downtrend line, Cloud resistance, and 50% retracement) Targets above at 6.44 and 6.84. Primary target at 7.08 and then last year’s high at 7.35 Lower retracement targets (not shown) at 5.89, 5.71, 5.57, and 5.43. Risk is 5.20

mtb1980

Current Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** (IMO) The current Domestic and World; Supply & Demand numbers,paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. ...

mtb1980

Initial thoughts on hedge/pricing targets with the current Market Structure for 2022 Soybeans

mtb1980

November22 Soybeans – Weekly: Consolidation above 12.00 and looking for direction. The blue Tenkan is about to cross under the red kijun. Support is 12.02 and 11.84 with risk down at 11.50. A break below would target the 10.97-10.75 area. Resistance against the red Kijun line at 12.32 and then the down trending line. Initial targets at 12.95-13.13. Upside...

mtb1980

January Soybeans - Daily: The January contract shows a different picture than the continuous. Jan beans did break above the trend line and 24% retracement, but fell short of the 38% target. The cloud resistance stopped beans at 12.89. The move below the trend line is concerning. There is a Harmonic Pattern potential for a reversal at 11.93-11.81. We need a...

mtb1980

Soybean – Weekly Cont: Soybeans struggled to get weekly closes inside the cloud and now working to break below the blue Tenkan line. A High to Low cycle needs to see a break above the trend line and above the 24% retracement to move out of bearish territory. The failure below 12.96 suggests we are not bullish. A weekly close below 12.30 targets the 11.81 lo. ...

mtb1980

Current Market Structure: **(Like Corn) Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range (IMO) from 10.00 to 12.00. Currently risk has been to the upside and inflationary threats elevated, keeping beans elevated as well. There are to many variables...

mtb1980

December 22 Corn - Weekly: From 2014-2020 Corn traded within a more definable market structure. 3.00-4.50(ish). During this time I would run previous years High to Low retracements and place initial targets at retracements under 100% and hope to fill targets up to 127%. We are currently in the beginning stages of developing a new market structure where upside...

mtb1980

March 22 Corn - Daily: Heaviest amount of volume between 5.75 and 5.85. This should act as good support or resistance as March takes the lead contract. Impressive intra-day recovery Friday. A break above $6.00 will have interest up to 6.15. Be careful of a bull trap in the 5.98-6.03 area. A quick move up and then close below the trend line would not look...

mtb1980

December 21 Corn - Daily: Corn had all the potential to fail on Friday as the world Financial and Energy markets caved on the latest news on a new Covid Variant. After gapping lower and trading most of the day lower, buyers came in late and gave the Dec21 contract its highest daily close since July…. that seems bullish. Volume was decent/strong for a...

mtb1980

Corn – Weekly Cont: Price action currently inside the cloud shows the potential for a wide range of movement. Filled the 38% 5.88 target. Next line of resistance at 6.07 with a 50% target above at 6.16. Support is the blue Tenkan line at 5.47 with further support at 5.20. Risk below is the pivot low at 4.97 and then it is wide open.

mtb1980

Current Market Structure: **Sensitive, with extreme bandwidth** The current Domestic and World Supply & Demand numbers paired with recent inflationary threats support a price base range from 4.75 to 5.15. There are to many variables that could change the fundamental picture and that is what this chart and the extreme bandidth is trying to tell us. ...

mtb1980

Soy Crush: Crush demand remains very strong currently at 1.66. Strength in Crush margins can come on the backside of strong moves lower in beans. Currently crush is high due to strong demand for oil and a weaker bean market. If Bean oil holds elevated levels and Meal can find some strength, Soybeans should find a lift higher. Soybeans: Price has retreated...

mtb1980

US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes. Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports…. COT: Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users. Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently...

mtb1980

S&P has my attention 1: The Doji on today’s daily chart 2: two pitchforks have their median line resistance converging in the same area (with today’s doji) 3: Momentum indicators are overbought or approaching overbought.