ram4nd

ram4nd

We've been consolidating near the bottom for a while, and the setup looks promising for a breakout. Fundamentals support this: energy demand is rising, and commodities are becoming increasingly scarce. Technically, we see a double bottom and a head-and-shoulders pattern. Price action is tightening into a pennant-like formation, suggesting an imminent move.

ram4nd Updated 

Comparing bitcoin to a bubble cheatsheet. Inflation adjusted looks even closer to a bubble. Not to mention the rest of the evidence with tech correlation, business cycles and general "pump and dump" factual evidence. We have had a lot of pump, ETFs probably the biggest part of it.

ram4nd

This is a continuation of my previous TA. We have to look at DXY, it's currently touching support. If it breaks down (I am a bit biased there). Then we will see EURUSD go up. Daily graph on EURUSD looks even more bullish. The only downside would be that the pattern really is pulled towards support and I have seen this kind of patterns breaking down. My previous chart:

ram4nd

I am more in a camp of "bitcoin will go down with nasdaq" rather than "bitcoin is an inflation hedge, a gold 2.0".

ram4nd Updated 

Not looking good for tech sector and the big indexes that are overweight in tech sector.

ram4nd Updated 

Full disclosure, I am biased. I don't understand why people claim bitcoin has any value. That said, this is my technical bear case for bitcoin.

ram4nd Updated 

Will see if this pullback goes all the way to support or not.

ram4nd

Is this the top? Expect more volatility this month and then down? Will this go down with nasdaq? Will this mean that yield curve will normalise? All these questions, seems likely. Or we get one final push, to get all of the retail in and then we do the flash crash?

ram4nd

Will This pennant become bullish? Will they lower rates? Based on history and the macro indicator of 10/2 year yield, will see.

ram4nd

If dollar continues to weaken against other currencies (DXY) then this pattern will fill out nicely.

ram4nd Updated 

There are many risks that can send crude flying. No more SPR release, OPEC cuts, China opens. On the other side is the end of the aggression against Ukraine.

ram4nd Updated 

Definitely not an exact science, but I am bullish on VIX. FED is supposedly going for recession. I think they are, just they try to have a "soft landing". I would even argue it's smart to have soft landing, if the leverage would unwind on a single day the financial system would stop existing as we know it.

ram4nd

Purely technical, haven't done fundamental analysis on the sector. Double bottom on Renko + log. Renko for noize reduction and log should also give a nice boost if this probability plays out.

ram4nd

There is no bull market without crossing the trend line and retouching the line. Technicals aside BTC is a speculative asset, there is no intrinsic value. So there will be no bull market while fed does QT.

ram4nd

Paper silver is in important place. Physical is obviously being drained from comex and has nothing to do with the price. Paber on the other hand is being thrown around and markup on physical gets higher and higher %.

ram4nd

A decending wedge forming in VIX. The bear market rally doesn't pass the sniff test. Not sure how things are at USA, but in EU we have worse and worse bills for electricity and food. Recession probabilities are high. Currently central banks seem to want to go towards recession and not further inflation rate increases. Combining the macro view with the irrational...

ram4nd Updated 

We still have time until FED pivots, atleast we aim for average recession correction. But markets don't go in straigh lines, so follow the trend until the end. The end is Powell Pivot 2.0

ram4nd

Last weeks news were not good, but market rallied. I would like to think of it as getting retail to go long so the big guys can get all their stop losses.