sky070

sky070 Updated 

Long-term price analysis using confluence of Log regression bands, SMA's, and Fibonacci retracements. Possible case for a test of the 400w SMA, based on % distance to previous all-time highs.

sky070

Relative price is trading in this parallel channel . If support holds Bitcoin may see some relative strength here.

sky070

Testing resistance, if it breaks we should see bull follow through. Potentially a good area to open a hedge.

sky070

Testing a long-term trendline support. Watch for a break or a bounce.

sky070

The odds of another green month decrease with each passing month. The longer we go on without a significant correction, the worse I fear the pullback will be. We typically we get a scare shortly before/after the halving. Be prepared for such a scenario playing out again.

sky070 Updated 

Watch for a monthly close outside of this descending triangle. A break in either direction will likely dictate what comes next.

sky070

Noticed a strong similarity between the charts. If history repeats, buying MATIC at $0.6 with a stop below the lower trendline could offer excellent risk/reward.

sky070

I suspect a bounce off EMA 26 (1h) is the most likely scenario. Failing that, there's further support at EMA 36, two 50% levels, and prior support / resistance lines. For a low chance of being stopped out, placing your stop at 0.85 provides room for plenty of support. If you are looking for a more aggressive entry, I would DCA at EMA 26/36 and place the stop...

sky070

In past pre-halving years, we have encountered resistance at the 0.786 Fibonacci level. If history repeats, 48-50k might be a good place to take some profit.

sky070

In 2016 we bounced around between the 12pt EMA and 3-factor Supertrend for 5 months before finally breaking out. Note that this is BTCUSD * BTC.D.

sky070

Assuming we found a market cycle bottom for BTC/ETH, we can start considering future targets so we're not caught off-guard when the time comes. Both charts have been trading in an ascending triangle (when adjusting for BTC_SUPPLY and ETH_SUPPLY). I would take profit when either upper trendline is touched, and either wait for a clear breakout, or for a retest of...

sky070

Adjusted for BTC_SUPPLY, it has accurately caught the past few cycle bottoms/tops, including the double-top in late 2021.

sky070

Compare with last cycle, where it acted as resistance until after the Covid crash. If we fail to break through, I expect to see lower prices.

sky070

Either we confirm this level as support, or we break out of a structure we've been in for nearly a decade. Be prepared for either scenario.

sky070

November 2019 had this exact setup. Bull market support band / September peak should act as worst-case stop. Might be worth waiting for a slightly better entry from here if R:R is unfavourable.

sky070

When the red support has been lost in the past, it's led to a large drop in price relative to bitcoin.

sky070

Linearized Bitcoin chart (to the power of 0.1) We've now broken down from 2 major supports, after a recent pullback. Currently resting above the 0.786 Fibonacci level fit to all data, if this breaks I imagine things could get ugly.

sky070

BTCUSD^0.1 provides a linearized view of it's price, which allows for a Fib Channel placement. Confluence of support at 15k level (200W SMA + 2019 peak)