spytradingpro

spytradingpro

Recap Yesterday saw a clean uptrend move in ES, marking a major low after three days of higher daily lows. The relief bounce to 4418 and high 4420s was anticipated and played out as expected. The day ended with ES reclaiming 4400 and squeezing to the 4426-29 target. The market now sits 100 points off last Friday’s low, with key catalysts such as NVDA earnings and...

spytradingpro

Recap ES broke its three-day red streak last Friday by putting in a daily bullish reversal candle. This triggered a relief rally that started this week, squeezing 60+ points. Despite the volatility, ES has remained in the same position as it was on Friday/Monday in the 4390-4400 support cluster. The question now is whether ES is building a base for a bottom or...

spytradingpro

Recap In my last newsletter, I spoke about the bullish hammer candle reversal day we saw in ES after three straight red days. This was only the third green day in the entire month of August. As a result, I was holding long over the weekend with multiple setups to add to this. My general lean was that we could bounce more, to 4404, then perhaps 4420s before trying...

spytradingpro

Recap This week has been a masterclass in what I call “Technical Analysis 101”. The most significant technical event of 2023 occurred on Tuesday, with ES breaking down the uptrend channel connecting the March and May lows. This resulted in a 100+ point multi-day selloff, the deepest since before the March low. However, ES managed to put in a green recovery day on...

spytradingpro

Recap The bears had their first major technical win since mid-February, breaking the perfect rising trendline from the March lows. This has triggered a "sell the bounce" theme with the bulls struggling to put in green days in August. The question now is whether there is a relief bounce on the horizon. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures:...

spytradingpro

Recap August 2023 has been a unique month with 12 trading days, 10 of which were red. Tuesday, ES hit its most significant support level, leading to a continued grind down. This triggered shorts Tuesday for a breakdown trade, which finally followed through yesterday afternoon. After 10 of 12 days red, the question is whether the bulls can get a relief bounce and...

spytradingpro

Recap As predicted, we saw a push to 4515 major resistance followed by a dip in the ES. This was no surprise as ES remained stuck in a 1.5 week bi-directional range, the largest of its type since May 2023, and December 2022 before that. Late in the day, we finally broke the range down. Premarket 🌏 Asia: Mixed 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil:...

spytradingpro

Recap July, the second most bullish month of the year, saw three consecutive weeks of growth, rallying 220 points. August started with the first red week in three, followed by a more turbulent descent this week. However, August is traditionally a consolidation month, with a 0.1% average return over the past 20 years. This pattern of a choppy first half and...

spytradingpro

Recap Yesterday, CPI delivered as expected with plenty of large, bi-directional swings and traps. Despite this volatility, ES followed the general trade plan well, defending the 4493 support zone and continuing the rally to high 4530s. The market closed right at the 4493-88 level, which has been tested six times since last Friday. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia:...

spytradingpro

Recap The month of August has seen a shift in trading character, with massive bi-directional swings in the ES. The ES made four full round trips from the 4535+ zone down to the 4480-90 zone since Friday alone. On Tuesday, the ES rallied to 4532 then dipped back down to the 4480-90 zone and held. The 4493-88 zone remains the most important area in ES, as it...

spytradingpro

Recap The week started with a squeeze due to ES back-testing the crucial 4493 level from its July 12th breakout. This led to a technically perfect 48 point rally on Monday. However, markets are known to be unpredictable and often trap players in a cycle of relentless dip buying and selling. Tuesday saw a sell-off from Monday's highs down to 4480s, followed by a...

spytradingpro

Recap As predicted in my last newsletter, the ES saw a relief bounce after putting in 4 consecutive red days for the first time since May. I went long late on Friday afternoon at 4493 and we saw a rally from 4493 on Friday to 4522 overnight on Monday, followed by a dip and then a continued rise. This was due to a technical backtest of a 3-week ascending triangle...

spytradingpro

Recap August started off with a bearish week for ES, marking its first red week in a month. The month is historically bearish at the start but bullish towards the end. Last week saw a rare three consecutive red days, a pattern only exceeded once since the March low. A relief bounce was anticipated, with a target of 4550, which played out as expected. ES then...

spytradingpro

Recap As we've moved into August, we've seen a shift in the “character” of ES, with volatility returning and large, bi-directional swings in the market. Despite this, it's important to note that August is not a “bearish month” but rather a seasonally neutral month, with a +0.1% average over the last 20 years. The focus for this month will be on tactical, unbiased...

spytradingpro

Recap The last newsletter discussed the potential for bearish seasonality in August for SPX. This was timely as volatility was unleashed shortly after the newsletter was sent out. The catalyst for the volatility and selling was the US credit downgrade, which triggered a loss of critical multi-day support. This led to the most eventful evening session of 2023,...

spytradingpro

Recap After the ES rallied and trended cleanly for +390 points from June to mid-July, the last two weeks have been characterized by a grinding summer chop. Despite testing the 4609 level six times in the last week with two failed breakouts, the ES has remained stubbornly resistant. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down a lot 🛢...

spytradingpro

Recap ES continues its characteristic bull market cycle of multi-day squeezes followed by wide rangebound consolidation under resistance, as it has done since July 19th. This pattern is expected to continue until a breakout occurs. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia: Down a bit 🌍 Europe: Down 🌎 US Index Futures: Down 🛢 Crude Oil: Down 💵 Dollar: Up 🧐 Yields: Up strongly 🔮...

spytradingpro

Recap In the past week, the markets have shown a series of traps and failed breakouts/breakdowns, with a significant bear trap occurring last Thursday. The ES sold 75 points, only to bounce back, demonstrating the biggest bear trap in 2 months. The 4608 level has been resistance for a full week, tested 4 times with one failed breakout. Markets Overnight 🌏 Asia:...