sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Central Bank's cut now the turn of BOE, hope of FED in September. BOJ rise is still digested. Risk off is huge, US 10 Y is dropping and further to go, purely on risk off. There is chance of another 10-15 bps fall. The fall in yields usually should be good, but historically if the fall is on the backdrop of risk off (risk assets gets sold), or on the...

sreebhashyam

Just last Thursday we were hoping markets would stay below 24630 and move lower. Bulls had different plans and pulled one of the sharpest candles, unfolding on a Friday. The trouble with excess at the end or near the end of the cycle is they can potentially be traps. Yesterday we did write about the possibility of break above 25K and then fall below. This...

sreebhashyam

Where are we now, is always an interesting question that at any point of time we put to contextually. BOJ rises rates, markets jump yesterday. Come US markets, FED pauses, but markets take as hint to September Cut. FED does what it does best, did nothing new. Recall Markets expected 6 cuts this year almost around 8-10 months back, we are yet to see...

sreebhashyam

Our markets simply put lack lustre, the volatile moves are elsewhere. 1. Bank of Japan raises rates, JPY roars, today as we speak NIKKI hit 5% down and the carry story is in worry for now. 2. Hamas leader death, growing geo-political pushes crude prices higher the game is ending or beginning? 3. FED holds the rate, keeps the door half open (half shut), hopes...

sreebhashyam

One of the surprises in terms of mixed responses, or slightly below expected performance is this index and within this index many components. It is week of Central Banks, starting with BOJ little later another 90 minutes to go. Budget concerns are over as it is passed, no more debate live with it, this too shall pass. Concerns from SEBI mount, measures are in...

sreebhashyam

The entire price action looks within the expanding triangle or the inverted triangle or the Gramaphone. While bulls rejoice, bear strike, sell higher is the new mantra than buy the dip. Over bought conditions in weekly, oscillators struggle in the daily and shorter frames suggest the same. The only stumbling block for the bears or the hope that is holding is...

sreebhashyam

The fall from the top, near the large bearish candle, coming on the heels of evening star is completely out of syllabus for the bulls. This happening on one of the healthy index is another one to note. What ails this that moves in range extremes is another story which we narrate. In Daily we have bullish engulfing pattern and that lends some support, but the...

sreebhashyam

Ooops is a pattern that Larry Williams coined in 1979, it suggests the next the price action of the previous days closes in the top 10% range, the following day prices open with a gap high or low and then closes all the way into the territory of the previous day Larry Conners suggested some qualification about this pattern entry, 10% is the qualification of the...

sreebhashyam

Bank's move baffle any one who thinks their helath has improved over the decade, much more capitalised, private banks coming back to the fore, HDFC Bank holding around known range. But the Index fall from 52700 to near 50550 is a hard truth to digest. This is one of the spaces where the price action retraced back to the pre-exit polls. Is it cursor to the...

sreebhashyam

That was well managed by the Expiry team. Made to believe close. It was ditto in June too, however, March April and May were larger moves on expiry day also. Now was that an opportunity to sell yesterday considering that the up move was false or was it confirmation that the downside is all but over. Frankly we are 200 points either side to conclude, or we are...

sreebhashyam

How one reacts if the best crumbles first. That is the impression one gets when this one cracks. True, it moves from extremes without warning, true the base is increasing. The fall of PSU shares, the one-off rise in some not the whole is cause for worry or an opportunity knocking one's doors. Clearly for those with longer horizon the opportunity, for those...

sreebhashyam

It was never, it is ok, it is small, it is an opportunity, it will bounce back! When regulators are worried, they throw the sample and research time and again to show the speculation in underlying. Mutual funds indirectly tell but cannot refuse your money. If you cannot digest you only vomit, it is part of the natural re-building process, are we in for one such...

sreebhashyam

It is one event, touted as no more an event in recent times. But comes as an event. Simplification, Removing Indexation, that too with immediate effect. Large cuts in precious metals, (wealth overnight fall in those who bought in recent times). We'll all those are short term, in the longer term we move on, that is human and that is what is evolving from the...

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Budget comes budget goes, but not the hopes too go. The mood is one of extreme despair, places where there is hope is for rotation and that is purely FMCG. In very short word, buy IT or ITC. Tax increase in Capital Gains tax though looks marginal comes at a time when there is cry for correction. The real-estate indexation is another one, markets will analyse...

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22/7 is another way of expressing the Pi, though the International Pi Day is celebrated on 14.3 Tomorrow is the budget day; economic report will come one day before. Markets have no time to look into this. Chief concerns remain, the speculation, the move of savings to equity, that is eroding the banks deposit ratio in turn raises the cost of funds. The NIM of...

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It opened in euphoria, it stayed, then the claim this fall is not big, considering the rise we have, not to worry another historical opportunity to buy when the fall happens. Wave 5 dynamics of new products, old euphoria ignoring the changing dynamics. The dark clouds appear at the time, when one tries to carry an umbrella which is absolutely no use. The pip...

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No further cues, fall and rise, and then the failure around the neckline of an otherwise inverse head and shoulder, Market waiting for the budget to break higher, what if we end up break that upward sloping green line, pushing the busted Inv Head and shoulder, probably taking to recent low. Anything is possible, failure at the neckline is the focus than...

sreebhashyam

RBI Governor Comments that in every silver lining there are clouds needs a careful calibrated analysis. If that is mentioned around the inflation which remains optimistic but at the same time the wording of cloud suggests nothing can be taken for granted. Now talking of taking for granted is the Indian bulls who continue to believe there is a rise every day...