stanchiam

stanchiam

as seen from chart, price broke out and currently back to retest break out region the overlapping action does look like part of a bigger corrective action will not rule of a move back up, good luck

stanchiam

retracement time and price wise is too short, still look for higher price and ideally hit at least 50% even if wrong, if right, we could see 1.09x

stanchiam

too early to know if it is indeed a running flat and only time will tell however, there is clear 5 wave down from 1.0906 region and we should see at least a corrective wave back up towards 50% region if wrong, if right, it will shoot above 1.0906

stanchiam

if such scenario come true, we will see prolong side way movement within the triangle until price break out in either direction, bearish scenario preferred though ;)

stanchiam

Same as eurusd, euraud favor a short term move up, failure to move back above 1.415 will pressure price lower to new low before higher.

stanchiam

As we have 5 waves down, short term favor a corrective move back up, after that, to continue lower. The extend of the fall depend if this is a wave 3 or C, both possible atm.

stanchiam

Will take a while before it get clear, in the meantime, price is stuck in range until decision is made. Price favour bears for now.

stanchiam

Still prefer bullish view but not ruling out the possibility of another new low. Price is now below my median line and indicate bears in control for now

stanchiam

To the bears, my ending diagonal is your leading diagonal...lol Lets continue to watch this show as it reveal itself.

stanchiam

Strong NFP did the opposite to usd, instead of usd becoming stronger after NFP, it falls. This confirm the bearish view. Using elliott wave, we clearly saw the top on Jan 2017 follow by a leading diagonal fall. The subsequent move up is viewed as corrective as shown in the chart, it is clear 3 wave up. What this suggest is the continue fall, just that this one...

stanchiam

break back below 100.7 will confirm this view of a bigger fall

stanchiam

low risk high reward trade

stanchiam

but bulls need to take over from now on, else it will collapse bulls need to show us clear 5 mini waves up as minor wave (i)

stanchiam

waiting for long to get trigger which stop will be lose move wave up add more long if break above high

stanchiam

We saw how price reacts around the 62% region, a nice rejection and a spike back up. Lets see how far the bulls can bring us, 1.072 is critical level to break above if bulls is to bring it way above.

stanchiam

high possibility bulls will take over again even if wrong, should see a move back up to around 1.065-1.07 region

stanchiam

The wave structure supports such bearish scenario, if Trump repeat and talk about level playing field and usd is too strong, do not be surprise usd fall strongly. As most are looking for stronger usd and new high, mr market might just do the opposite. Good luck.

stanchiam

the strong bounce look impulsive and could be wave i and start of upside the entire fall from top look corrective, especially when looking at usdchf, its rise is 100% corrective therefore the case is supportive of more fall on usdchf and hence probability of eurusd upside