sufiansaid

sufiansaid

The projected monthly range low had been exceeded. My belief in the market is that price should "normalize" and goes back inside the range (Banks profit taking). The monthly range has been hit and exceeded and also the weekly range was hit (set default bias = retracement/reversal bias). Currently, I am setting a bullish bias for this pair and it will remain true...

sufiansaid

Your job as a trader is to define an edge, a trading plan, anticipate setups you would trade. Focus on the process, not the outcome. I personally like to make at least two potential scenarios that I would trade in a day or any specific timeframe. A way to keep my mind open should my initial trade won't come off or stopped out, there is another setup forming. This...

sufiansaid

Fundamentally, I see Sterling is Bearish due to Brexit jitters. I believe the price action in the past few weeks have illustrated that sentiment (duh!). Monthly range have hit though hence I will set my bias for a bullish retracement bias (wait for a "confirmation candle" so I could start looking for bullish setups = entry. 1.2900 are the price that I like before...

sufiansaid

My trading belief is that when the price hits the certain range (USDCAD Avg Monthly Range = 300+ish pips), by default it should reverse minimum 60% of the recent move (some of you call it "a retracement") if not the entire move. Candle patterns that I look for in a way to confirm a reversal/retracement is on its way is Piercing Candles or Engulfing Candles. One of...

sufiansaid

I have said it several times I remain an EURUSD Bearish bias - long-term - due to the monetary policies divergence, on top of the fact that market unlikely have fully priced it in (hence there could be more move to the downside). To the shorter term however, I am pretty much Bullish bias because of the following : 1) EURUSD has had a strong sell-off in which it...

sufiansaid Updated 

Quick Recap on my yesterday's trade and price action up until now Yesterday my intraday bias was EURUSD = Up. Reason? : 1. Price last week have hit Weekly and Monthly Range 2. Price is trading below this levels hence its on price levels that I like to call "a hot zone". Its not a certainty but it has high probability the price would reverse/retrace/move...

sufiansaid Updated 

This is a continuation of the earlier trading plan. Refer this trading plan for context : If the price could go down and test 1.13600 again and the market shows its hand (in a form of a W pattern or bullish engulfing candle), I will long EURUSD. If you like this write-up (albeit pretty short!), give me a Follow and Message me for any discussion you would like...

sufiansaid Updated 

Some of the typical occurances in the day week in week out. Here's what needs to be taken note : 1. Price hit the range has high probability for the price to reverse or move sideways (especially after London closes) 2. If price hit the range, sometimes it is followed by a "final" push (breaking the range) before a reversal happens. Some like to call it Market...

sufiansaid Updated 

All described in the chart //Please visit my Live Trading Room (Still testing for video clarity and audio clarity)

sufiansaid

Long EURUSD - Testing 1.15800 and yesterday's low area. I am not ruling out several more tests on these levels and even further down yesterday's low if the Banks want to strike some stops. Happy Trading //My Live Trading Room (Still Testing for Picture and Audio Clarity). Please visit : www.youtube.com

sufiansaid Updated 

Fundamental analysis wise, there is an obvious monetary divergence between the Feds and the ECB. One central bank wants to hike rates few more this year (Feds), one central bank wants to keep the policy loose with continuing the QE. Sentiment from yesterday was Euro bid after consecutive days of heavy selling of the Euros. The bigger picture I still see Dollar is...

sufiansaid

When there is no clear sentiment/fundamental move that I could trade off, trade based on different kind of fundamentals = "To make money, what had been bought, it needs to sold". Wednesdays or Thursdays always the time when the market ended their accumulation phase and start a new trend OR taking profit after several days of buying (in this case buying the Euros,...

sufiansaid

Rationale for Bearish Dollar : Eventhough the Federal Reserve hike the interest rate (was fully priced in by the way prior the hike), Yellen's concerns on Inflation pushed the dollar down. I am anticipating further weakening of the dollar today. Risk for the trading plan : Dovish tone from ECB Draghi later today.

sufiansaid

USD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar CAD Bearish Rationale : 1. I am expecting the effect of Dovish CAD...

sufiansaid

USD Bullish Rationale : 1. Optimism tax reform bill 2. It's been said that the market have fully priced in December interest rate hike but this "certainty" seems to ease investors in betting Dollar strength at the moment 3. Personally, I see no reason as of now to be bearish the dollar GBP Bearish Rationale : 1. Continued uncertainty and MESS over the...

sufiansaid

So BOC, despite of the positive economic data past few months, remained "cautious" about them stepping off the gas even further (aka raising interest rates). It took me several seconds to speed read the statement, digest it, intepret it and make an actionable plan based on that information. At the time, I thought it was pretty dovish, not VERY dovish.. but dovish...

sufiansaid

As long as the uncertainty over Brexit divorce deals and irish border remains, I will be bullish on the sterling overall. A hawkish tone from BOC later today could be a major catalyst for this pair to move lower. A positive development on the brexit issue and a dovish tone from BOC later are the major risks for this trading plan.

sufiansaid

BOC Rate later today. Market expects the BOC to hold the rate today but a least dovish or hawkish statement are expected later after series of positive economic data for Canada. BOJ as we all know is still deep in their easing zone. If BOC reveal they are planning to raise interest rate in the future, then Boom.. thats as much diverged as it could get in terms of...