supestv

supestv

BTC has been in a horizontal pattern for 13 hours. It just broke it. Bullish signal upward.

supestv

In my chart I have drawn all the major impulse and correction cycles: 1. Starting July 7 2017 to $20k -> Retraced to 0.786 Fib ($6000) 2. Starting at $6000 to $11.5k -> Retraced to 0.786 Fib ($7200) 3. Starting at $7200 to $9150 -> Retrace to 0.786 Fib = $7700 ??

supestv

So, it seems we were not on Wave 3, and Wave 2 did not end at $8250. Subwave A of Wave 2 ended at $8250, which means that we just finished Subwave B of Wave 2 at $9070 and Subwave C and therefore Wave 2 will probably end around $7900. The good news is this: now that you know this, you can keep reducing your stop order buys as the price decreases (in times like...

supestv

We are at a point of 2 paths: either we're on a wave 3 up, on still on wave 2 down. This is the point where people can lose the most money. If you're sold, you can lose buy having to buy back BTC at a much higher price. If you've bought in, the price could drop. In cases like this where Elliot Wave can't help, it\s good to draw trend lines and channels. It...

supestv

I have drawn two possible paths. We are either on subwave 2 of wave 3, or subwave C of wave 2. You can see that for some time, both paths can be valid. The only way to invalidate the green path, is if the price retraces back above $9070, which was the beginning of subwave C, which would never happen if we were on subwave C. But I bet you'd want to rebuy much...

supestv

Previously I had said that there was a wave failure. But I take that back. It's still possible that we're on wave 3. We might still be on a subwave 2 of wave 3 going to $10k (orange path). Or we might not have finished the ABC subwaves of wave 2, and wave 2 is going down to $7900 (green path) or less - but no lower than $7200 which was the start of wave 1...

supestv

It happens. A lot. BTC will just fake you out. Clearly the price was not following a wave 3, or that wave 5 has finished which is unlikely. I think we haven't finished wave 2. That means that we probably just finished subwave B of wave 2, and we're going down to finish Wave C. That's possible because subwave B of Wave 2 did not go above the end of Wave 1. I...

supestv

While other charting methods are good for determining support regions, divergences etc., the biggest benefit I get from Elliot Wave is to determine stop losses. Opponents of Elliot Wave are always saying that it's so random and changes all the time. Of course - no-one can predict the market, we can only study the waves which represent market sentiment. The...

supestv

I drew this chart yesterday. How did I know wave 2 was going to end at 8650? I just drew the Fib and picked the 0.5 retracement level as a reasonable retracement. In my Elliot Wave notes, apparently wave 2 and wave 4 like to follow fib levels. Based on the fact that Primary Wave 1 ended at 9150, and Primary Wave 2 ended at 8250, then Primary Wave 4 is going to...

supestv

Drew this Elliot Wave yesterday. BTC seems to be following it quite well.

supestv

Here is my Elliot Wave count. I thought I was being optimistic, but it's blowing above my estimates. About time BTC. About time.

supestv Updated 

Yesterday it wasn't clear whether 1. Wave 1 ended at $8700, and wave 3 ended at $9150, and we were therefore on Wave 4 or 2. Wave 1 ended at $9100, and were therefore on wave 2. Given that the corrective wave ended at $8300, that means it has to be wave 2 since wave 3 cannot retrace into wave 1. It looks like We are currently on Wave 3, and it looks like Subwave...

supestv

most TAs agree that we finished Wave 1 at $9150. That means that we either finished wave 2 at $8450, and we are on a wave 3; or it means we are still on a wave 2. I have charted believing that wave 2 ended at $8450. But... if we haven't ended wave 2, that means that wave A ended at $8450, we just finished wave B, and wave C will end around $8300 or possibly...

supestv

So far so good. We appear to have finished an A of an ABC of a sub-subwave 2 of a subwave 3 of a wave 3. Tradingview doesn't allow me to publish the 1 minute view, but if I did, you can see that it is following the path even more clearly. My Subwave 3 ends at $9100, given that we've been trying to break this for the last few days. And my Wave 3 ends at around...

supestv

Charting subwaves of subwaves to continually confirm whether we're on a subwave 2 of a larger subwave 3 up to $9100 on a wave 3 up to $9400. If we're on a subwave 2 of a subwave 3 of a wave 3, that means that there is an ABC pattern. The price seems to be following the ABC quite nicely.

supestv

This seems correct to me. So far the price is following the wave, and sub-waves etc. Points to note: 1. Wave 1 started at $7200, and it ended at $9150. 2. Wave 2 ended at $8450. This is confirmed because trying to redraw the end point of Wave 2 was "impossible" unless it ended at $8450, given the current price is over $8700 at time of writing. Therefore: 3....

supestv

We finished a Wave 1 at $9100. That means we had to finish a Wave 2. The question is where does Wave 2 end? At first we thought $8744. It recovered strong to $9093, but then slowly crashed first to $8592, then to $8450. Was $8450 the bottom? After exiting $8450 it shot up to $8678 but then for several agonizing hours lived in a descending triangle. It...

supestv

BTC Price following Elliot Wave count so far. Be patient. I had a stop loss trigger at $8550 because it looked like it was going to break the descending triangle downward, and I had to buy back in at a higher price. The key lesson for me is that when you draw a pattern, sometimes you have to increase the margin of error. I shifted the horizontal line in the...