supestv

supestv

So it looks like we're about to start mini-subwave 5 of subwave C of Wave 2. After Wave 2 is Wave 3 going to the moon and beyond. But at the same time, we have to be mindful of our own biases. We have to chart the bullish and bearish waves to test whether we are right or not. The bearish path is that we had finished a wave 4 up that started at $6504 and ended...

supestv

So it looks like we're about to start mini-subwave 5 of subwave C of Wave 2. After Wave 2 is Wave 3 going to the moon and beyond. But at the same time, we have to be mindful of our own biases. We have to chart the bullish and bearish waves to test whether we are right or not. The bearish path is that we had finished a wave 4 up that started at $6504 and ended...

supestv

SubWave A (of Wave 2) retraced to exactly 0.236 fib level, using $6504 as the start of wave 1. I predict that subwave C will complete at the 0.382 fib level, then after that wave 3 will continue the trip to the moon.

supestv

so 5 waves up have finished (We know that this is not a subwave 4, because it retraced into Subwave 1 territory). And what happens after 5 waves? ABC correction, which usually retraces to the end of wave 4, in this case around $7800. After that I believe btc will continue upward. The bull run is here.

supestv

You can see btc is bouncing around a large symmetrical triangle. I think it will bounce in this area for quite a while, but you see that the 4 hr MACD blue is curling down. I think when the MACD crosses over some time this weekend, it will break out of the symmetrical triangle downward - bounce off $7600 before going back up again.

supestv

last night before I went to bed I watched btc exit the symmetrical triangle downward, then it did the extraordinary thing and went back into the triangle and jumped up another $300!! I went to sleep and missed the jump by 15 minutes. Now it looks like btc is in another symmetrical triangle. Will it do the bait and switch again? Good thing I'm awake when it...

supestv

Have we finished wave 5, or still on Wave 4? Not sure whether you can see the lines I drew, but I drew alternative counts. The darker blue line indicates we have finished wave 5, and have started an ABC. The ligher blue line indicates we are on a wave 4, and still have wave 5 to complete. The problem with the idea of being on a wave 4, is that wave 3 doesn't...

supestv

And ascending triangle formed which is a continuation pattern and has a 72% success rate of continuing the bullish trend.

supestv

A bull flag has formed which has a 67% chance of predicting an upward movement. I am cautiously optimistic that the pump is not going to be followed up with a dump. The reason being is that I think most of the massive pump and dump movements are caused by bots operating in a low liquidity environment, not the result of whales dumping. I have seen the results of...

supestv

Look at that OBV – clearly indicating that bullish volume is dominating the market. I was happy to wake up this morning to see my stop orders had triggered at $7190 – the point where the bearish Elliott wave count was invalidated. So what now? What’s the market sentiment? 1. OBV is in an upward trend indicating that the volume favors the bulls for the first...

supestv

If you've read my previous posts, you'll see that I think we're on a micro-subwave 2 of mini-subwave 3 of subwave 5 of wave 5. Why bother doing Elliott Wave analysis at such a micro level? Because the current wave structure is a downward motive wave, and Elliott Wave gives us rules for invalidating this: Wave 2 cannot retrace before the start of Wave 1. So if...

supestv

Since $11.6k, the OBV has been following a trend line even though almost every indicator has given mixed signals about whether a recovery was going to happen between then & now. I only know of one other TA who uses OBV, & no TA I've seen on tradingview seems to use it. Why is it so important? Because at various times since $11.6k, some of the "best" TAs I...

supestv

I've drawn a bright green horizontal line on the OBV indicator. Notice how the OBV has been on a downward trend since $11k. Now it's beginning to flatten out, a sure sign that the downturn is ending. When the price hit $6k, the OBV curved sharply down to a point and then curved upward sharply toward $11k. Clearly these sharp movements in OBV are unsustainable....

supestv

Grandma : that's the person who back in December asked whether she should have bought bitcoin at the all time high. She believes the price will always go up. She doesn't really know much about how the market works, and is greedy when others are greedy and is fearful when others are fearful. Right now she thinks btc is garbage and the price will keep going...

supestv

I redrew my Wyckoff Accumulation Phase schematic (in black) to align with my Elliott Wave count. I think the stars are aligning.... Compare with: d.stockcharts.com The prices have been behaving very differently in the last week than other at other times. What has normally in the past led to a mass panic and sell-off has instead resulted in quite resilient...

supestv

I think we may be in a Wyckoff Accumulation phase. In the past, I have seen much sharper crashes to lower lows by now, has instead resulted in modest lows with sideways movement, and a surprising resilience of btc to follow trend lines. Even if temporarily going past a trend line, it will return back to the trend line. Check out the Wyckoff schematic I drew in...

supestv

Back when btc was nearing $20k, all the social media was awash with predictions of even higher btc prices. And then BTC crashed. Now the reverse is true - everyone on social media and most technical analysts are saying btc will go lower and lower and lower. I'm hearing now predictions of below $4k. Well guess what? When everyone is saying it will go up,...

supestv

Now that subwaves 1 and 2 are complete, the stage is set to predict the behavior of the remaining 3 waves. Subwave 1 bounced off the long-term purple trend line. It remains to be seen whether subwave 3 will punch right through or bounced off. If subwave 3 bounces off the purple trend line, then we may be on an ABCDE wave bouncing between the purple and green...