taylorbray

taylorbray

Random fed liquidity indicator that shows similar data to the FRED Fed Liabilities and Capital data. Same divergence. Only one of these rallies was dip bought in a significant way, and it had the liquidity to back it up. What's the bull thesis now?

taylorbray Updated 

Banking crisis saved this divergence. What happens when bank deposit outflows slow (which MMF inflows data suggests will happen, so far) and the Fed is free to go back to unloading the balance sheet?

taylorbray

It seems like we might trade between the ATH vwap and October bottom vwap for the rest of our lives. Currently in the massive supply zone. Broke down for a day, then saved by Meta's so called ""'earnings beat"". With liquidity drying up, more short-term upside is a hard bet to make. Seems like a retest of ~3800/3900 is more likely. From there, if we trade...

taylorbray

Resistance: - VWAP from 164 (recent low) / test of 101 VWAP - VWAP from recent high Support: - VWAP from 101 (bear market low) - Trendline support of higher lows Daily chart pattern is lower highs, higher lows. Reeeeal tight Hard to call here, need a little longer to see who wins this battle.

taylorbray

Testing a strat, got some backtest info on here. RSI gets into ~50 range and we hold 150, Im gonna look to swing late april/earnings exp calls. slightly OTM, will roll down strike if we dip after a buy. Fundementals are the same as my other long

taylorbray

Bull case: - Holding the YTD AVWAP - RSI divergence cleared up some overbought conditions (4hr chart) - Good earnings and guidance - Consumer is still spending like a maniac (credit cards) - Seasonality is favorable Bear case: - No reopening in China - High likelihood of higher rates (macro) If last year's action is any indicator, some downside is not...