the_sunship

the_sunship Updated 

106 is the magic number for me on AMZN - both daily BB and structural trendline resistance is there and we have steep hidden bearish divergence on the daily charts (yellow lines on price and rsi). AMZN doesn't always get to it's BB but I think this time it will, we'll see. Either way, I think it pulls back from there. 106 can be reached with FOMC reaction or with...

08:56

the_sunship Updated 

No sell off today is another warning that we may have more chop tomorrow and in the coming week. Looking at the action today makes me think we're in a B of 4 and the C will be with the FOMC announcement. However because it's probably a 4th wave, chances are we find support at either 3980ish or 3950 - the important MA's are there on the daily charts. The RSI is...

the_sunship Updated 

It's a controversial call to say energy prices are going to drop dramatically into next year but this is what the XLE chart is showing. We're at a double top with monthly bearish RSI divergence, and the same structural trendline where it fell last time. My guess is it could get back down to 50. If it's a C leg it could happen faster than most would expect. 50...

11:35

the_sunship Updated 

All in the video, basically I'm waiting for ES to break 3950 area convincingly and then retest it for a short. My guess right now is - not much will happen before FOMC and AAPL earnings, but who knows for sure. USOIl may make one more high to 84, it would be a good shorting opportunity. Gold looks strong and the dollar is still weak. Bonds also close to resistance...

the_sunship Updated 

I have been fixating on 3600 as a possible low coming in March for a few reasons - 1. weekly and monthy BB are close to each other at that level (the October 2022 low was also monthly and weekly BB support) and 2. the monthly 50ma is near there as well. I tried a few more pitchfork ideas, and right now this is the one I like best. If we get to the median line by...

13:35

the_sunship

SPX is in the area where I think it may reverse although higher highs to end the day is certainly possible. It has been a hard slog for bears and according to what I'm seeing on the put/call charts, the bets are mostly bullish. This makes sense in terms of price action but under the hood there are some issues. There are technical reasons why I'm still bearish...

10:14

the_sunship Updated 

All in the video. I do believe one more push up into Friday is looking more likely as of now. If we have a gap up or gap down tomorrow, the plan is pretty clear, so I'll just wait to see what they want to do after 8:30. Oil is in a similar predicament, the VIX and Dollar can both drop a bit more before finding support. Good luck!

08:06

the_sunship Updated 

All in the video. Watch for a pullback this week, maybe starting tonight, maybe starting Monday or Tuesday. A little more chop into big tech earnings in early February is likely. Gold looks strong but the Dollar is warning of a reversal soon. Oil is a short still and should have trouble in the 83 area.... Good luck!

11:16

the_sunship Updated 

After today I'm very much considering another leg up on the indexes after a bear trap tomorrow to 3850's. The 18ma weekly should act as support and IF we come down to it, the 4 hr rsi will be showing hidden bullish divergence. I'm using the video as a walk through of my thought process covering SPX DXY GOLD and USOIL. I urge caution for bears at this time. I hope...

10:25

the_sunship Updated 

all in the video - I want to get it up quickly so I won't write much here. The reversal looks good, but watch for whipsaws tomorrow.....

09:57

the_sunship Updated 

ok another weekly preview of these particular instruments. We're in an interesting point on all of them as you can see in the video. The SPX bias is up but watch for possible reversal this week as the Weekly RSI is at a resistance point. DXY retesting it's channel boundary again, Gold had a breakout but needs to hold over 1870 to continue, USOIL looks like...

the_sunship Updated 

If we completed the B wave up, a C wave down should commence starting today. C waves are notorious for their characteristic buying or selling pressure, panic or fomo at it's peak. A good example was the covid sell off in Feb - March 2020. This is only one possibility. I'll post more as time goes by and see see how price looks. Either way I believe we will have...

08:51

the_sunship Updated 

All details in the video. Bias is now up on SPX but this week will be crucial to close above 3940. A failure to hold the 18 ma would be bearish. Dollar has an inverted hammer on the weekly chart - a warning of reversal. Gold also in a precarious area, USOIL needs to hold 70 otherwise 65 looks likely. Good luck!

09:16

the_sunship Updated 

The idea from yesterday is not working as I thought so I had to reevaluate what I'm seeing this morning. The general bias is still down - under the 18ma on daily and weekly, embedded bearish slow stochastic, put call ratios back to normal levels again, and more.... If we move quickly downward, there is daily BB support near 3740 on ES. That should at least pause...

the_sunship Updated 

So a follow up to my previous post because they are not breaking this market down as hard today as I suspected. Very possibly B continues sideways into CPI tomorrow and we rally into the end of today. A false breakdown on CPI (the final e wave) would give then get us the move up, how far is uncertain for it should take a few days at least. C target may even get to...

the_sunship Updated 

After watching the price action today it looks clear to me that a meltdown 3-400 points will probably not occur. I'm seeing another ABC down - the C of B looks like it's starting today. After that, one more up for a dramatic C would make sense as the mid time frame RSI will have nice bullish divergence at the low. This move down (if it occurs) should be finished...

the_sunship Updated 

Hang Seng index had a perfect backtest of monthy trendline, I think it's a short here and if you look at the news, the fundamental reasons are there as well. Common targets for the C wave would be equal to the previous A wave (around 12k) or, if things get really ugly 1.272 of A - which would be around 6500. Both areas have strong horizontal support. The Monthly...

11:27

the_sunship Updated 

A false brake out started the day. We are still under the 18ma on the daily and weekly charts. For me, the next target should be the lower daily BB around 3750. We are embedded bearish on the slow stochastic so the idea that we can grind down hard into later January or early February is certainly possible. I also share some ideas on bear market rules which is...