the_sunship

the_sunship

We are now backtesting the weekly trendline and reached the weekly upper BB. In my opinion it's time to take profits and (possibly) collect shorts. They could go a bit higher to spike through the trendline first. Getting above 1900 on a weekly close would be very bullish for gold and we could see all time highs in 2023. My guess is a pullback here at least for...

the_sunship Updated 

Happy New Year to all! So with the new year we have a more complex correction structure. The "bear pennant" is now broken to the upside but with no follow through on two attempts. On ES they touched the daily 18ma overnight and retreated. Also we are at a fib line of the pitchfork and a structural trendline which seems to be holding price back (blue line). I still...

the_sunship Updated 

Happy New Year to my followers! I hope 2023 will be a successful year of trading for all of you. I'm presenting a map of what I'm seeing in the market here on the last trading day of the year. I believe we are far more bearish than bullish at this point in time. Surprisingly, we are still quite low on the VIX and put/call ratio charts as of today. Unless the...

the_sunship Updated 

If we can't get over this morning's highs we may be in the middle of a larger ABC move to completely wash out the market. This would give the "it's 2008 again" crowd encouragement to go all in short and the bulls to give up completely before the larger bounce in January. If we are in a C wave down, very few are talking about it (none that I've seen at least)....

09:19

the_sunship Updated 

Just a short analysis of SPX/SPY, the Vix and the put/call on spx index. I think a sudden flash down could be possible within the next few days/week. Keep in mind we have economic numbers tomorrow at 830, so please consider that in your positioning overnight. Good Luck!

the_sunship Updated 

18ma weekly at 3909, so we could go down a wee bit more, but this area is likely a strong support for a bounce tomorrow. In this area - Lower daily BB, 100ma, Weekly 18ma, price shelf and trendline. Some are going to say a wave 5 will come from here - doubtful but possible. I will be open to that idea if we can get over the daily 18ma again, but for now I don't...

10:19

the_sunship Updated 

This is a video walk through of the SPY considering this count as a larger ABC move instead of an impulse with a bounce coming next. I do feel this count is a strong possibility but it will be wrong over 383 or more conservatively, over 387. Very few people think we can have a melt down over the holidays, and very few are thinking this is a possibility, which...

08:05

the_sunship Updated 

an alternate idea in case the impulse down is not really an impulse and today's ending was yet another bull trap. We have economic numbers again at 8:30 am which will certainly affect the market so I'm personally flat overnight. A C down from here is probably not on most people's minds which is why I like it. However, this could be completely wrong so please take...

the_sunship Updated 

This is the futures chart. I'm using it because it lines up well with the pitchfork fibs. Overall, it still looks like we need to complete the 4th wave today (maybe into tomorrow) before the final wave down. Keep in mind the 100ma is my target but we may fall short as the weekly 18 is at 3874 currently. Many are expecting a bounce to 3900 at least, and then a...

06:38

the_sunship Updated 

Small video about the near term price action into later January. In general, the small rally yesterday was perceived as bullish - SPX put call ratio dropped to 1.29 ycharts.com However, I believe the 5th and final wave of this sequence will be finished next week. January should be percieved as bullish again before the larger move down. Good luck!

the_sunship

if 370 holds and we bounce into January as I have stated, the potential for a head and shoulders pattern develops. The target would be around 340-330 on SPY into February. Just putting it out as a possibility. I do think the next larger leg down will be a bottom for 2023, and a rally or at least choppy sideways action will occur for the rest of the year. I'll be...

11:44

the_sunship Updated 

A walk through of what I think is the most probable price action for the week. I'll update on a static chart tomorrow. Good luck!

08:33

the_sunship Updated 

A number of technical supports here, although we could sell down to the 50 overnight I would expect a bounce tomorrow. POssibly we will form a bear flag between the daily BB and the 100ma. Good luck!

the_sunship Updated 

Futures sold off last night, but the rsi is starting to get somewhat low on smaller time frames. We are currently under the 18ma around (4k) and close to support at 3940, so a small sell off at open may be bought up quickly. I expect they will try to recapture the 18ma today and ultimately fail to do so. Main target is still 3900 and they could just sell straight...

the_sunship Updated 

Looking ahead to this week, I do believe the 18ma on the weekly chart will hold, currently around 3900. A dip under 3900 would make sense to convince bears to pounce. I think CPI will probably pump the market up quickly for a C wave before we start coming down again. Maybe the sell off comes from the Fed rate announcement, or more likely - Powell's Q and A...

08:23

the_sunship

Just a little idea that may help when you have these kinds of whipsaw weeks. In general, Fast moves are often taken back quickly while grinding moves are much more constructive. Most traders see fast moves and assume that the direction will stick but it's often the opposite. I hope it's helpful!

09:19

the_sunship Updated 

All in the video. Expect a bounce soon from the 18/10ma support. After Powell we should get more selling to 3900 area (18 and 10ma weekly support). I think gradually we'll make our way down to test the 200ma again (around 3700) and then bounce for January. Selling rallies at this point I think is the plan, unless they close over the high of today, then something...

08:13

the_sunship

A long term view of the stock market and why I think a strong rally next year is more likely than not. The kind of zig zags we are seeing are probably not going to cause a "crash" but rather a severe correction to 3300-3200 area. At that point the RSI will need to be reset towards the highs again. Good luck!