theansweris42

theansweris42

Illustrated here is my preferred wave-count for the year-long (Sep '19 to 'Sep 20) emergent structure in the alt-market cap (AMC) to BTC-market cap (BMC) ratio. IMHO understanding this structure is critically important to understanding whether the alt-market is or isn't likely to outperform BTC (by market cap) in the foreseeable future. It is therefore...

theansweris42

I was analysing the AMC/BMC break-out structure again this morning as something wasn't quite right with my wave-count. The nested series of W1+W2s just didn't seem to have the right rule conformity internally so I decided to dig into my Elliott wave books for some insight. I found it! I don't believe this was ever a sequence of nested Base channels but rather a...

theansweris42

Time-derivatives of price movement concept. This model has price represent position, Base channel gradient represent velocity, Acceleration channel gradient represent acceleration and acceleration delta represent jerk. These account for the first Four time derivatives and may be used to infer market system modality. 1, Change of position yields velocity (price...

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Successive failed attempts to resume acceleration (Red circles).

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Channel boundaries act as energy barriers (support from above, resistance from below)

theansweris42

This plot illustrates the diminishing 'jerk' of BTC price movement i.e. sustained but diminishing acceleration-of-acceleration wrt the Kennedy-channel modelled Elliott Wave structure.

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After a ~2.5 year retracement ETH has stepped out of its deceleration channel against BTC with a series of Bases established and is now retesting that deceleration channel from above. Unbelievably Bullish.

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BTC looks to be setting up for a move lower with 3 nested W1+W2 structures visible. I expect the 200 week SMA (Blue) to act as bedrock as it has done for the previous 6 years.

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Algo has popped out of it's Base channel and is now re-testing from above. Suitable profit targets for an entry any time now are the shadow-channel boundaries (Blue parallel lines above the channel). One strategy I've been using of late is to sell 50% at the first and a further 25% at the second (if prices makes it).

theansweris42

The thick Red lines represent hurdles that once overcome will see a steep decline in the SPX imho. Regardless of whether this is wave 3 or wave C it's going to be swift and bloody.

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Price is making nested W1+W2s and limbering up for a big move down.

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Bearish motive wave in progress. W1 has 'stepped' out of the deceleration channel and is now retracing for W2.

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Wave 4 bottom in. A cheeky 94% retracement on the W5.1. I feel from the sedentary progress so far that the +1 degree structure is a nested W1 (circled). I expect a low on this completed 5-wave move of ~$8200 before a bullish retrace for another W2.

theansweris42

I now have a high-confidence, high-precision wave-count on a bearish 1-2, 1-2 nested combination in progress. If this count is accurate then 30APR @ ~2972 is the top of this Bullish corrective move and it's likely to be years (if not decades) before we get back there imho. The nested wave 2 in progress currently has a little way more to go I feel. I wouldn't be...

theansweris42

The SPX looks out have topped out and is about to take a dive. A move above 2964 invalidates this outlook.

theansweris42

It looks like this bullish ABC is almost out of steam.

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This analysis has a bullish wave 4 ABCDE in progress which will likely reach it's apex on 10th - 12th April. At this point price will descend to ultimately make a lower-low.

theansweris42

This analysis posits a completed grand super-cycle wave 1 with a GS wave 2 in progress. The two thick Red lines highlight likely resistance to price with an apex sometime in early 2021. Based upon this analysis an 88.6% retracement is a reasonable assumption which would take price down to ~$2250.