21 months from pandemic low to high. 50% correction (10 months). Then another 21 months to July 2024 high. Also, a low to high, high to high correlation.
CPCE put/call ratio, SPX/VIX ratio and CNN fear/greed index all close to previous highs. Watching to see if the high-low-high time equality marks a significant top.
Hard to believe the large gap from 4/24/17 won't be filled since the 2 smaller gaps were.
34 weeks for the double top. Looking for 21 weeks down for current wave completion. Right now, watching to see if a triangle forms before the 5th wave down to 2300, and then a larger 10 week rally goes back to the 2600 area. If the current wave 4 is a zig-zag now and not a triangle, then will re-evaluate.
While everyone was paying attention to the SPX NDX and DJI, the NYA was showing the early divergence. Following a parallel pattern, the 13th month would be FEB 2019, which corresponds to NOV 2008. Almost every indicator I follow confirms a 3rd wave down. A 5 week average of the advance/decline line which I have been doing by hand for decades is even below the...
The hourly XIV was already breaking down as the UDOW was making new highs.
Updated DJI chart. Projecting this wave's rise to be equal to Wave 1 (73.38%). The b wave of Wave 1 was 26 months from the 2009 low. Wave 3 was 43 months (1.6 x Wave 1). Wave 5 is closing in on 26 months. Even if this up move is only finishing wave 3 (the alternate count that is super bullish), there still should be a nasty correction once target is reached....
Any new high should create a 3rd Monthly RSI diversion peak. Should be a struggle to break through. There was a reversal spike on the Daily chart for blowout earnings. Also, see a monthly chart of SOX and TXN for similarities.
Original DJI target of low to low = low to high was reached earlier than expected. Next target I am looking at is 26700 (.382 to .618 ratio from 2009 low), but I am also keeping a close eye on the NASDAQ since last Friday it finally reached its inflation-adjusted 2000 high. Long term charts that are inflation-adjusted can be very helpful.
Low to Low (2009-2016) and Low to High (2016-2018) is a valid pattern. Appears that we may be in wave 3 of final wave 5. After the next pullback, a rise to the 24000-24200 area would also provide a .382 to .618 ratio from the 2016 low.