timwest

timwest Wizard Updated 

Drops in crude oil have an impact on stocks in a positive way. The important point to remember is that falling crude oil prices have a lagged effect on the overall equity market. How long is that lag? It changes over time but it is approximately 6 months. When oil prices rise, it too has a lagged effect on the market by a variable amount of time. Of course, it...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I posted this pattern originally back in 2019 which showed the relationship between sharp drops in crude oil prices and the resulting support levels created in the stock market, as measured by the $SPX500 S&P500 Index. Crude oil has basically gone sideways over the last 40 years when adjusted for inflation and when you factor in efficiency in that we get 22 mpg...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Educational chart: The massive 20% rally in the US Dollar into the fall of 2022 coincided with the bear market in stocks and fears of recession as the Fed was raising rates to choke off the inflation stoked from aggressive fiscal and monetary expansion post-Covid lockdowns. What is important to learn is how the US Dollar movements can drive earnings estimates so...

timwest Wizard Updated 

AMEX:IWM long vs AMEX:SPY short -------------------------- This is a "spread trade" between two indexes which is sometimes called a "pairs trade". Typically a "pairs trade" is between two similar stocks in a similar industry whose fortunes are tied together to a similar end user or buyer. Imagine NYSE:KO and NASDAQ:PEP (Coca-Cola vs Pepsi) as a decent...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Confluent NASDAQ:CFLT has an 11-month base formation since last May 2022 almost every month has touched the price of $22.6/sh. This May the price of NASDAQ:CFLT has "range expanded up" which can mean that buyers are in control and stepping up after they have accumulated enough shares to control the price. The base measures 100% from a low near $17 to a high...

timwest Wizard Updated 

What do you mean by a spread? A spread is a difference between two similar markets, in this case oil stocks and oil service companies versus the basic commodity that those oil companies trade in, which is crude oil. There is a substantial trade set up at the moment that presents large returns with a reasonable amount of risk. Shorting Energy Stocks using the $XLE...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I have put an example of the "Time At Mode" technique that is very useful and gives specific time and price targets for stocks, indexes and commodities. Begin the analysis in the lower-left-corner at the lowest low. Once the market has had 5 weeks without making a new low, we can conclude that a weekly uptrend has started from the lowest low. Over time the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

I thought I would publish this "guess" for the sheer entertainment value to show the dramatic increase in mortgage rates and to put in perspective the damage that has likely been done to the purchasing power of home buyers. The Fed has engineered an attempt to shut down an excessive spending to cool the economy down and we are all waiting for reverberations to...

timwest Wizard Updated 

If you track the CBOE:SKEW index, it reveals when put options on the S&P500 ( AMEX:SPY , FX:SPX500 ) are at high levels relative to calls. Sometimes that means there is a big event ahead and the market participants are buying "insurance" against a sharp drop in the market over the life of the options contracts. So, I think it is important to track CBOE:SKEW ...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here's how the stock market declined in 2018 from the peak in January and the peak in October as compared to the current peak. I also have graphed the levels of support from previous panic selloffs as represented by the pink triangles and lines. Usually those are reference levels for support for the market. Notice what happened back in late 2018 when the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Here's what I like to plot using the great charting tools available at TradingView: 1. Free Cash Flow 2. Price to Sales Ratio (PSR) 3. Average Basic Shares Outstanding 4. Long Term Debt (excl lease liabilities) 5. Total Revenues 6. Market Cap From this I can assess how the structure of the company has changed over time. For example: Did the company go...

timwest Wizard Updated 

This chart shows how important the President of the United States Election Level has been to the $DXY currency market for 6 years now. Pay attention to this KEY LEVEL for important support or resistance. Tim

timwest Wizard

The Soybean futures market is generating a buy signal based on the monthly time frame based on the "Time@Mode Methodology". Notice the 8 month sideways action around the green horizontal line in 2021 which set up what turned into a 7 month rally into June 2022. When "time expires" the market tends to form a new mode at that price level (within the range of the...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Just a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated. The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price. The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil...

timwest Wizard Updated 

What I would like to reveal with these two charts, the Crude Oil market ($USDWTI) and the US Stock Market ($SPX500) using a 22-day chart (monthly) is the link between them and how we can utilize large drops in Crude Oil to help us to find support levels in the S&P500 Index. In order to help us see crude oil inflation adjusted, I divided Crude by the CPI Index. You...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Hope, fear and greed can be measured in many ways on Wall Street and we are told to "sell hope and buy fear" by the great investors, sages and textbooks of all time. It is difficult to buy fear and even more difficult to sell hope, since hope tends to go on longer and go higher than anyone can imagine. But the downside is more consistent and similar, as you'll...

timwest Wizard

Trying to work on a new "Key Hidden Level" that might be useful for a reference in the stock market. What is a "Key Hidden Level"? A Key Hidden Level is a price level where something important happened and is a useful reference level for the market for quite some time after the event. Examples: Earnings Reports (or "quarterly updates" since these days not...

timwest Wizard Updated 

Overly simplistic - non-inflation adjusted returns, but so far they are remarkably similar. I lined up the bottoms of 1974 and 1987 to the 2009 low. Doing some "pattern analysis" to show that the magnitude of the current advance is similar when compared to previous booms. What do we have in this cycle compared to 1973-1987 and 1987-2000? Back then we had...