timwest

timwest Wizard

This chart is COMPLETELY UNTOUCHED from its original publication a month ago. I added the RED "ENTRY" and "EXIT" circles to show the trade. Swiss Franc followers may look at this lift to a new breakout as a decent place to exit longs established against massive support down under the 104 level. I don't have any news to help justify the exit, but this is a...

timwest Wizard

Commentary: Keep in mind that the 50/200 day moving average cross system has had long periods of success and of failure and that we are coming off of a period when this method has worked very well. My only interest in creating this graph is to show you a different way of looking at the performance. Be wary of trying to "jump on" the performance of any system or...

timwest Wizard

I updated the data, but didn't change any of the forecast lines. The market is eerily tracing out the pattern.

timwest Wizard

Nice base pattern. Volume two days ago on the price breakout at $29 sets up a measured move to higher levels. Risk: 3 pts risk (3 x's average daily range of roughly $1) Reward: Upside potential of $3-$4 up to $32-$33 area. Today's weaker than expected GDP results barely dented US Steel Corp's stock price. I like that the bad news helped "X" return to its...

timwest Wizard

Jan 26, 2012 UPDATE: The last trade didn't generate an "entry" signal, so I am simply updating the chart. What I have done is to shift the price forecast over to the end of CY 2011and the price action is mimicking the action somewhat closely. It certainly looks like the bond bulls are cornered and they are stuck in their bonds. What you will see is every...

timwest Wizard

AMZN has a very nice base formation that is looking better as each day passes. The pattern you see labeled here is a "wipe-out" pattern that shifts psychology severely to the negative perspective. Notice how many drops and violations of previous lows there are in this chart. The "manic-depressive" nature of the swings wrings out most players from the stock, but...

timwest Wizard

ANR is about to squeeze into the end of this tightening consolidation/base. I am guessing it will be a base, but I am simply looking at how the stock has fallen a long way from 60 to 16 and expectations for coal prices may be low enough now to allow for upside surprise. Note also that volume in the last decline in price under $20 was absorbed by the market and...

timwest Wizard

VIX as one of my favorite indicators since it is real money and it is not able to be manipulated or distorted. There is no time lag to collect advisory opinion or to wait for open interest reports the next day. But the more you learn about any indicator, the more you will realize you can't have a "Holy Grail", but you can at least wait for the odds to stack up...

timwest Wizard

Massive base formation from 26 - 20 should allow for a 6-12 month rally to 32. High frequency trading at 24 - 23 signals strong support at that level. US Gov't investment is a negative but it is widely known and therefore, discounted. I view $24-$23 as a level that is the lowest risk price zone to buy shares, but I doubt AIG will get back to that price zone. ...

timwest Wizard

This is an outline for a model for a price pattern that I found back in 1990 while I was the technical analyst for a Wall Street Institutional Brokerage Firm. I simply called it "The Point of Maximum Pessimism" because this progression of price action just seems to create the psychology that is present at a major market bottom. I just stumbled onto this chart...

timwest Wizard

Options expiration is this Friday, the third Friday of the month. This chart graphically displays the expiration price with a line at each expiration going back to Feb of 2011 and a circle around the closing price. The interesting perspective that options expirations provide is that it represents the price at which the most people have hedged and protected their...

timwest Wizard

Here is how I see the XLE (Energy Shares ETF) for the next few months. I view this rally as a test of resistance and a place to begin shorting on a scale from 70-72-74 with a 76 stop. I view 64-62-60 as key support as shown on the graph. I believe that going long makes sense once the entire short position is covered. I will update and keep you all posted as...

timwest Wizard

I like to see trendlines break to see if that flushes out the weak holders. What I can see here is that AMZN did clearly break this long term trend and has had plenty of bad news lately. I believe this may be a low risk entry on the long-side with a definable risk (always 3 average daily ranges) and plenty of upside potential. I think AMZN is a reasonable buy...

timwest Wizard

Wave after wave of selling has driven the Swiss Franc back to new lows over the previous 6 months. Note the psychological breaks of support that should wipe out any "weak" holders of FXF. With Gold on a rebound from the $1500 level and with ongoing trouble in Euro-Land, it would appear that this is a safe entry at the lowest risk. Should FXF break 102, I would...

timwest Wizard

Good news. The stop at 65 has not been hit and NFLX is once again making another rally attempt. The last rally in December was on takeover talk, but that fully retraced back to the key support level that I highlighted on the chart. As the numbers slowly get released and as investors realize how addicted subscribers are to the Netflix brand, value investors will...

timwest Wizard

I have made no changes to this chart. I only added updated price bars by hitting the "make it live" button.

timwest Wizard

Here is a review of the trades in YHOO so far. I typed this up yesterday but didn't publish it until today. You can see that YHOO has a 10% range that it is swinging back and forth in and this is certainly an opportunity to make a decent amount of money. However, I prefer to bet that the downside will hold and to get premiums in return for giving away the...

timwest Wizard

Is anyone looking at GE lately to see that it is rocketing higher? In the past, GE used to correlate almost perfectly with the overall stock market but since it imploded, eliminated its dividend, was rescued by the US Gov't (yes, they backed hundreds of billions of their debt with the full guarantee of the US Gov't) and while all leveraged companies delevered, I...