tired_man_willis

tired_man_willis

I've highlighted or marked the double-top pattern that IS NOT YET CONFIRMED. This week we got the news of Battery Day and the hype has died down. Both rejections on the Weekly chart show more Bear Volume than Bull. MACD hasn't flipped bearish since March. RSI is still over-heated. The U.S election is 40 days away and there has always been a market dump around...

tired_man_willis

TSLA is the hottest performing stock of the year and that's great but there's a few things to keep in mind short-term. On the Weekly time frame the stock is nearly parabolic. A combination of that along with the RSI starting to show bearish divergence has me seeing it pulling back sometime in the next 3 months (Nov/Dec). On the lower time-frames you'll also...

tired_man_willis

Each move down is measured around 5.5%. Bulls have yet to show any real volume on the moves up and while $11,400 has been cleared I'm not convinced. That's why I'm thinking we've got another 5.5% move to the downside around $11k or maybe even $10.8k after some long positions are liquidated. I'm out of position sitting in cash. Looking for an oversold on the...

tired_man_willis

This is just a follow-up post to the ones I've made in the last month. As always I'll be checking the volume on the larger timeframes to get an overall perspective before drilling into the smaller ones. Aside from volume levels, keep tabs on the RSI and where it's historically bounced as a reference guide. My target will be the Support Zone I've marked so long...

tired_man_willis Updated 

Not going to lie, that little $300 had me for a quick second but then I looked at a few things. Low volume and a failure to sustain the move on the short term. I'm sure some of you may have seen other people flip bullish and opened new positions expecting the rumor to push us past $10k. The 1hr RSI is nasty as is the possible Double Top. I wouldn't be surprised...

tired_man_willis

Bulls continue to get rejected around $9500. An increase in bear volume is imminent (I know, I know, I've been saying this for a while). However, even if we do drop we will be painting a beautiful Inverted H&S reversal. I've added to my short position.

tired_man_willis Updated 

As in my previous post, this was long overdue. This is what I'm looking for, I know we will get a bounce but what I'm looking at is: Bear Volume Increasing, RSI, and for this cross that I've circled. Still holding my short.

tired_man_willis Updated 

Bulls have failed to sustain their push especially with the alts running out of steam. I'm mainly trading off of the Daily & Weekly and we haven't had a retest of our Weekly low around $6850. Bear volume is slowly increasing and a lot of the lead alts are starting to bleed. ADA pumped hard which led the last "real" push towards $10k (It was May 27th, check the...

tired_man_willis Updated 

Ok, so that Bart break to $10.4k threw me off. However, after the steep drop and failed break we went back to where we were beforehand. Same thing as I said last week, bulls must sustain the bull breaks or it'll get rejected. For the first time in over a year I've gone short as I feel a drop in order to retest the Weekly low is inevitable. I've been setting...

tired_man_willis Updated 

Last week I made a post about a Double Top that looked to be executing but the Bulls held around $8550 thereby establishing support at this level. However, looking at the Volume levels, the Bears are winning in that regard as Bulls have repeatedly attempted to breach $9500-$10k but are continuously failing with each "peak" being lower than the previous. Unless...

tired_man_willis

Still waiting to see what happens when the 25 and 50 EMA catch up to each other on the Daily. The 25 EMA on the Weekly is around $8130 so I'm taking a guess that by the time the 25 and 50 EMA catchup it'll be in the $8250 range. Last time they crossed after a pull-back we had a big sell-off. That's honestly the outcome I've been waiting on as I still believe...

tired_man_willis

Following up to my post last week we are confirming the Double Top. We are seeing an increase in Bear Volume as we push downward after 2 months of Bull action. I've marked the support zone I'm targeting as I believe we may get a short term bounce into a bear pennant which will take us to the next leg down around $7k. That said, I'm going to start scaling in to...

tired_man_willis

This is a follow-up to my post last week on the Weekly chart pre-halving. Now last week I said we'd get a dump on the Halving event, which we did with some good volume on the bears side. Bulls held and retested the previous highs with weak volume. Daily, imo, shows a Double Top. The weak bull volume and RSI are my red flags. If you swap it over to the Weekly...

tired_man_willis

So as you can see on the Weekly we've had nearly 2 months of Green Candles. Bull volume has been steady but dropping as we push higher (bulls are tired) on the lower timeframes. The Bitcoin halving is in 5 days. I fully expect a dump (buy the rumor, sell the news). I've marked the support zone where I believe we will see the first real bounce. The "Oh Shit" zone...

tired_man_willis

You know what I'm getting at. To me this is what I see occurring over the course of the year as the COVID-19 epidemic slows down our growth until the end of the year when this hopefully all ends. I personally have DCA'd into BTC and even bought some alts that I believe have a good future.

tired_man_willis Updated 

February 10th I published my long term Weekly analysis where I stated that I was looking for an Inverted H&S. We are still on track for this to happen Mid-April/May. I've personally added to my long position. RSI hasn't sunk below 40 where you can see historically it's bounced. Bear Weekly volume shows that these are "weak" sell-offs. Go long or go home.

tired_man_willis

Bitcoin has been on an upswing since mid-November. While this inverted H&S may not actually play out, this is what I will be monitoring. Should this Weekly pattern play out we can expect it to test the neck-line around April/May right before the "Halvning". Either way, going Long is the way to go, or just HODL as I am.

tired_man_willis

A lot depends on how Bakkt performs when it launches. Right now I'm leaning bearish and this is looking like the time we ranged before breaking that $5800-$6k support level. The first drop and measured move down gives us the zone of $5k (depending on the 200MA) which would establish it as the Weekly higher low. I'm long term bullish on Bitcoin. Personally, I've...