1st Possible Top: Nasdaq has currently retraced 50% of the candle that made the last all time high. Many traders who trade candle stick patterns will take profit on the next candle that retraces half way up the wick of the topping candle and this is exactly the setup we have here. 2nd Possible Top: There is overhead resistance from an ascending trend line and...
First, I wanted to say that anyone who is using the QQQ chart to trade NASDAQ is at a huge disadvantage. The futures chart NQM2020 has much cleaner price action and the trend lines are much better respected. As I am sure many have heard, there is all of this talk about the market ready for a C wave down after this B wave rally. While this may be true, the chart...
Nasdaq (QQQ) is currently testing the bottom of the ascending channel. For now, it's still bullish until it takes out the circled low. Until then, it may break below the channel and make a double bottom or wick below and then go up. It's important to keep an open mind to all possibilities. You can short the break of the channel by either shorting as soon as it...
This is a chart of the put to call ratio. The market is currently near an extreme of sellers to buyers indicating there will likely be a shift soon. If everyone is shorting the market, institutions are buying to stop out the shorts. They'll continue to do this until this strategy doesn't work anymore. Once sellers capitulate, they'll change their strategy to...
NASDAQ (QQQ) is currently trying to hold the .786 fib level as support. There is a huge noticeable gap above this level that is likely to cause a lot of bulls to take profit. Is this a "return to normal" phase as seen in bubble charts or is this NASDAQ clearing the .786 level to test the high? Currently the put to call ratio is at extremes and everyone is...
After falling 30% and bouncing off the 200 week moving average, Nasdaq is currently only 7% down from it's highs. In 2008, you'll see that the Nasdaq crashed 26% and then rallied to 7% below it's highs before falling 50%. History doesn't necessarily repeat itself but it does rhyme. This doesn't mean the same type of crash will happen again, but it's best to keep...
I know of a lot of traders who only trade gaps due to their high predictability. Whether the move is up or down, the emotions of trapped traders are the same. If you are part of the range that is trapped, you are only thinking about one thing, how do I exit this trade with as little loss as possible? The graph above shows that there are too many people trapped...
AMD is in a bull pennant as you can see from the 1hr chart. If it breaks below the prior pivot, then this could form into a bull flag with a lower low.
As posted in my previous idea, the Russell 2000 was at strong resistance and if we closed above, we should have a bullish bias until we see a topping reversal pattern. We did close above that resistance and even retested the 50 day moving average, so it is looking bullish for now. The price has also broken to the top of a cup and handle pattern however we have...
SPY has reached a possible top with the confluence of a bearish rising wedge and key 61.8 resistance. Institutions commonly use the 61.8 level to take profits. If we close and hold above the 61.8 level, the chance of new lows drastically decreases.
As pointed out in my related idea below, SPY is currently in a clear rising wedge that the bulls do not want to let go of. As you can see in the chart above, price has broken to the bottom of the wedge and is currently riding it up with the bottom of the wedge acting as resistance. These are difficult to trade as price can essentially ride the bottom trend line...
Possible double bottom with a falling wedge for confluence. Stops below the low. Enter again above the low if you get stopped out. Not much more to say about this.
NASDAQ is currently in a very steep rising wedge pattern. SPX is too, but it's not as steep as this one. These are difficult to trade as they are bearish patterns however the pattern is made up of two ascending trend lines. The price can ride the bottom or the top of the trend line and still be in play. They work best with a smaller position with a stop above the...
This is a simple analysis of SPY's trend. Clear as day, SPY's price action is best contained within a rising wedge. Rising wedges have the tendency to break down after the 3rd test of the upper trend line. If we break to the downside of this wedge, this gives us a target of 223 which is measured by the top and the bottom of the broad end of the wedge. I think...
This is a simple analysis of AMD. It looks like the price is near the top of a very steep channel on the weekly chart. Although we could overshoot the channel, odds are the price stays contained within imo, but I don't know the future. Look for areas where the risk reward is your favor and make your move.
This is a simple analysis of the Russell 2000 (IWM). Today IWM filled the gap from the March 11th drop and bounced off resistance perfectly. Until Russell is able to overcome this resistance and use it as support, assume it will drop from here. If I had to guess a direction, I think the odds of it going down are better than it going up, but I'm not a fortune...
Above are the last 6 major downturns since 1968 in context of the 200 week moving average. The technical damage this market has experienced from this sell off is similar to the 2000 dotcom crash in my opinion. Although it may seem abnormal to rally past the 200 week moving average given the virus catalyst, as you can see in 2000 bulls were trapped when they...
Bulls are currently hopeful and buying every dip. Breakouts commonly fail in bear markets so trade this one cautiously. From the bottom of the cup to the top, we're able to project our target to about 3100. The breakout point was around 2650 where SPY broke through strong overhead resistance including the 200 week moving average. The price came back down to...