$USO nice bounce of the 150-day and breakout through the first Fib retracement level on the daily. Looking for positive momentum over the next few weeks. This will kill the #bearmarketrally soon enough. Powell chickened out with 75 bps.
Still looking for a sign of a breakout/breakdown from here. $ES actions echoes what happened in March, but #oil, #USD, or #bonds can kill this at any time.
As the 150-day Moving Average of the US Dollar Index surpasses 100, more and more emerging markets will begin defaulting on their debts, including debt to the United States. Spillover effects will occur when those markets cause higher quality debt in more developed nations to do the same.
$HYGH is probably the best proxy for assessing pure credit risk. Important weekly support levels that failed during the initial Covid crash are being tested at $79.75.
