Structure set up for a long entry at around the 360 mark.
ABC corrective wave of longer term bull phase into Christmas appears to be ending.
360 looks to be 0.618 retrace of Wave 1, and also exact 100% of Wave A.
Note we may have already hit the bottom at 362 (50% and 0.718 of Waves 1 and A respectively). However VIX model looks to be setting up a new high to...
Looks like we have an upside target of either 20.37 or 21.3 for VIX model to complete its move to the upside - expect to see in conjunction with new lows on SPX and QQQ to complete the wave 2 decline
We are in the final corrective wave of the bear maret.
The retrace from Monday's high perfectly tagged the 61.8% Fibonacci retrace at 3980 on Tuesday.
I am long at 3980, Target 4200, SL 3950. I anticipate a 3-wave Fib extension to 4200,minor pullback to 4100, before final wave to test August highs. I cannot see a path beyond these highs under current fundamentals.
Read in conjunction with VIX post to understand -volatility at a key level down but Nasdaq 100 options are looking pretty cheap at these levels. I'm going short tonight.
Looking at extreme overbought scenarios now.
Vix has been melted down to shake out the legions of put buyers who have been doing the obvious - trying to short this disaster market. Bear market rally either peaks tonight or we have a huge rally (and even huger crash) on the near horizon.
Probably have 2-3 more days of this rally left - likely topping out in low 13000s
Drew last 2 weeks upper trend line wedge line incorrect on last post, now fixed.
