user100000

user100000

If the market takes out 16480.52 that should confirm the triangle completed at 14192.37 (red 4) and wave red 5 is unfolding. target is 24.5K and if it was were to extend 30.8K is possible but less likely.

user100000

here is a close up of the price action. each leg is corrective i.e. a three wave structure

user100000

i show here the cycle I impulse wave. wave 5 extended by 423.6% of waves 1 ~ 3 using three values (wave "0", wave 3, wave 4) we can predict cycle III's top using the same idea. i've used "text book" estimates for now which shows 114,000 as a potential target (this will be adjusted according to actual values in future).

user100000

ok, just to be sure, i went over it and counted the waves again looking for the typical retracements and ratios between waves.... wave 2 retraces 50% of wave 1 (typically 50-61.8%) wave 3 extends by 261.8% of wave 1 (that is again typical for an extended three wave) wave 4 (in progress) retracing 38-50% of wave 3 (at the e wave) (also typical retracement...

user100000

ok, red 4 does look like a triangle! i should have realised this sideways action was/is a triangle. note each leg is being retraced by 61.8%. a triangle is usually the pattern before the final leg! so thats a good warning to traders. wave red 5 is to be expected and a correction of larger degree will start. red 5 targets estimated at 24500 (unless red 5 extends...

user100000 Updated 

there is a possibility of 1-2 1-2 price action. i.e. wave circle iii might be getting ready to extend. in that case a 261.8% extension is quite common target for wave three (~24K)... and the overall target for red 5 raised higher to ~28K.

user100000

just a small update... once the market takes out 15756.22 it will confirm wave iii is in progress. i provide some ideal targets for the sub waves

user100000

these length proportions fit well with my over all target of ~21.5K (could go a bit higher) i draw ideal target levels for each wave. so wave 1 was a good place for the rally to pause and correct

user100000

I really think it is possible to reach 100K in 2018. If you're able to, please hodl at least 10 bitcoins and not trade those just in case something like this happens. At 114K is where wave III = wave I on a semi log chart. The guidelines of elliott wave theory is that wave III should be longer than wave I in general. This is my crazy forecast for 2018. Happy Holidays

user100000

hello again, i have to revise my red 5 target a little bit lower adjusting for the red 4 deep retracement. i can only "guarantee" ~21.5K (there is a chance of extended red 5 that will take us to 28K) once we take out the ATH we should expect macd divergence. that is a hint that the market is topping

user100000

im not sure what happened!... i guess it was a mini crash. red 4 retracing 50% of red 3. this is typical and within the usual 38.6-50% retracement for wave fours in general. red 5 target must be reduced to ~23K because of this deeper retracement. so unless red 5 extends 29K is possible but the ideal target is about 22876. i really wasn't expecting this deep...

user100000 Updated 

the red 4 correction seems to be complete. the final terminal pattern was an ending diagonal. note how the market bounced off the 1-3 line (see dashed line)..... i'm expecting the bull market to resume to ~25K (wave 5 cannot be longer than 3)

user100000

im not certain if red 4 is complete (shallow correction is possible retracing a little over 23.6%), but if the low holds red 5 should be at ~26K by new year's eve. at that point primary wave (circle) 3 should be complete

user100000

this is the same idea i posted a few days back. the blue area is where the probability is high for the end of red 3. the pink area is less likely but possible. the market can show us what it wants but those are ranges of likely and less likely areas the arrow is following the ideal path.

user100000

i think wave 3 is "in" because i can count five wave up (v) on 30m chart, and over lapping waves too so unless it is extending i am expecting wave 4 to touch the lower channel line at ~12896. 13K is good level to buy

user100000

this is my alternate count just in case we take out the ATH..... so about 25K for primary wave (circle) 3 this makes sense because wave 3 extending to about 300% of wave 1 which is what happens in strong markets

user100000

just a small update/correction... i believe the diagonal has ended at 13482 (wave 1) because wave 2 retraced deeply 78.6% which is typical once a diagonal pattern completes. next comes wave 3 to ~10846 (typical level 161.8% of wave one) or if it extends it can move farther down to ~7K... (these are just estimates)... im expecting a zig zag because those can...

user100000

this pattern may be an expanding diagonal... it should reach minimum target 12977.58. more likely 11895 or lower. watch market approach dashed line (sub 12977) for a speculative buy