user100000

user100000

it was a good run for primary wave 3 but all good things come to an end. wave (5) extended by 261.8% of waves (1)~(3). it seems bitcoin has strong fifth waves just like commodities. i have two likely targets for the primary wave four correction. the red arrow is a gentle correction (not too deep) and the green arrow is less likely but is a possibility as markets...

user100000

close up on wave 5....... wave 5 seem to be complete! i don't understand why the market isn't collapsing yet. the market touching the upper line of the blue channel and black channel. only thing possible is for the market to spike to the 100% level which is 14839. that would make wave v an extended wave but other than that i don't see any real upside

user100000 Updated 

ok, wave 5 was still in progress and is extended and over extended. i've labeled 11395 as wave iii. the ideal target for this wave is 12608 but can end a bit lower or a bit higher but we are close to the end of primary wave three. 5K low is a real possibility for primary wave four because markets tend to find support at wave four of one lesser degree (in this case 2972)

user100000

this pattern may be a leading diagonal? (wave a)

user100000

I have a couple of targets all pointing to the same area (end of primary wave (circle) 3) wave (5) extending at 161.8% of waves (1)~(3) give us a target of 10362 and sub wave 5 extending at 100% of waves 1~3 give us 10471 so i believe we are very close to the top. anywhere between 10362-10471 i think we should set aside the diagonal idea for now because this...

user100000

most likely wave (5) hasn't ended and the market is unfolding into an ending diagonal. the B wave idea invalidates if market exceed 9329 (161.8% of A)... it is more likely an ending diagonal which occur typically after an extended wave three. wave 4 and 1 should overlap

user100000

the correction is now an expanded flat (market moved beyond origin of A). the typical extension is 123.6% of A (~8438) but can end lower of of course. the C wave is typically much longer than wave A in an expanded flat

user100000

this seems to be a flat correction. this pattern retraces 90% of A (7683). i believe this is a WXY correction (i.e. a combination of corrections seperated by an X wave because the duration of primary wave 4 needs to be much longer to fill the channel

user100000

i just want to point out that A=C at 4443. it is often the case they are equal in length. i would start building a position around that level

user100000

channeling the same degree group of waves (1-3, and 2) shows that primary wave (circle) 4 needs some time to complete and touch the lower channel line. (the red pattern is a copy of the primary wave 2)

user100000

Is it a flat or triangle? Note, waves (A) and (B) are corrective i.e. three wave structures. I believe the first leg of the (A) wave has completed.... looking for a bounce then another drop to complete wave (A)

user100000 Updated 

just a small update... nothing much has changed except now we have a clear five wave count for wave 5

user100000

i have three likely scenarios for the primary wave (circle) four correction. the blue path is the most gentle and shallow correction. the red path is deeper retracing 61.8% of primary wave (circle) 3. the orange path which is a crash to sub wave two (red dashed line). after an extended five it is often the case the market will quickly drop back to sub wave two of wave five

user100000

it doesn't seem to be an ending diagonal... (wave iii already exceeding the length of wave i) so i have to throw out that count. looking at the bigger picture, the larger degree wave (5) does seem to be an extended (passing the 61.8% level convincingly) wave just as wave (3) was. 7348 to 7539 is my target for an extended wave (5) the whole 5794 to 7539 levels is...

user100000

ok, primary wave (circle) 3 has not ended yet as i previously thought. i believe wave 5 is unfolding into an ending diagonal. sometimes the topping process needs more time to complete...

user100000

small update... wave ii is in progress. the market giving longs another chance to exit at the right shoulder

user100000

ok, because of the extended wave 3 we really cannot expect much out of wave 5. the market reaching almost the 38.2% level at 6199 is good enough level to complete the impulse wave. wave 5 is either already complete or may climb to 6538 but in either case i do not recommend to be long for your active trading. primary wave (circle) 3 can end at anytime so its best...

user100000

i believe the market will be trading sideways for a while between the blue lines in the next 5 months or so as primary wave 4 unfolds. i still don't know what this pattern is but will modify the chart as time passes...