user100000

user100000

here is an alternate scenario which may be possible if wave (5) extends. market should reach the 100% level at 7539. i will not participate but will watch from sidelines because risk is too high for my trading style

user100000

that was quick... i believe the primary wave 3 is in. market reached the main target of 5794. it may extend up or not but i do not recommend anyone to be long unless it is for your long term holding. i show a flat correction as an example to show how long the correction may take. but of course the pattern can be anything such as a triangle, zigzag, combination of...

user100000 Updated 

ok, i believe 5388 was the end of 3. it was a typical 161.8% of wave 1 (sub wave five seems to be extended). depending on how much wave 4 retraces, 6K+ is a real possibility. i'll update the chart once wave 4 is in.

user100000

just a small update... it seems wave 3 may be already "in." i can sort of count five sub waves within and is longer than wave 1. if that is the case, we should have some weakness in the next several days as wave 4 unfolds. hopefully the market finds support above 4580

user100000

using three points i managed to constuct a prelim channel. this is what i speculate to unfold over the next few weeks. the first and second waves seem to be complete lets see if there is an acceleration upwards as wave 3 unfolds

user100000

it is "official," i believe wave (5) is underway. because of the "crash" it was difficult to count the waves accurately so i waited for the market to take out wave i which confirms we are no longer in a correction. the correction itself was very wave four in that it retraced the usual 38-50% of wave three. looking at the first wave of this impulse: wave (1) ...

user100000

once the market takes out 4010 (wave i) blue line we will know the correction is over and wave (5) underway because wave iv cannot move into the wave i territory. i've update the wave (5) target. however if it extends which is a possibility please see farther above at the 100% level.

user100000

i believe the market at this time is correcting up, retracing to 3681-3814 (38-50% of iii) for the wave iv bounce over the next few days then maybe double bottom or to 3097 is where C = A * 1.618. im not too sure if 3251.29 is actually end of iii or the end of the correction because of the crashiness of this move. please note the primary wave (circle) 3 isn't...

user100000

OK, it's "official." wave 5 is complete because the (closing) price action is outside the green channel. we are in correction mode. wave C in progress

user100000

i am seeing a head and shoulder reversal pattern developing. the market seems to be completing the right shoulder at this time. because this correction is of a higher degree we should expect a deeper move and longer in duration than previous wave 4 correction (smaller blue shaded area). often wave C ends at (A*1.618) which is about 3090

user100000

i believe the wave (4) correction is underway. we had the over lapping waves mentioned earlier so that put an end to a possible move higher. also rsi divergence for some time isn't helping the overall picture

user100000

the market decided to have wave (iii) to be shorter than wave (i). we now know that wave (v) has an upper limit and must be shorter than wave (iii) itself since wave (iii) cannot be the shortest wave in an impulse. i.e. (v) cannot exceed 5299. as long as the market stay above 4449.98 there is one more final wave up that needs to complete and not exceed 5299...

user100000

wave (circle) v is underway. minimum wave (iii) is 5019 because it should be larger than wave (i). that is the most conservative target for (iii).

user100000

i'm not sure which outcome is correct. either the top is in at 4480 or the market climbs higher to ~5237 before a substantial correction begins. as long as the market stays within the green channel i believe 5K is possible. if the channel fails to hold the price action market should follow pink line. in both cases a wave (4) correction will follow

user100000

I think the market needs to retest the breakout area before moving higher. The correction seems to be some kind of WXY random combination.

user100000

tbh, i don't see much upside from here and believe the top is "in" for wave (3). wave 5 did extend and met the 100% target level at ~4344. what i see is a bunch of hanging man candlesticks very late in an uptrend which indicate potential trend reversal. also anytime i see wild fluctuation in price it is usually associated with a topping/distribution period

user100000

It's difficult to guess the exact top of a wave five. I found this mechanical and easy way seems to work nicely. Just wait for the market to close on the other side of the blue line (right side). It is working on many different degrees of wave five. I list a few recent examples (see blue lines)

user100000

I believe wave 5 to be complete nearly reaching it's own internal target of ~4204. And note wave v must be shorter than wave iii (because wave iii cannot be the shortest wave in an impulse wave) so that is another limit to how high it can go. Market didn't reach the ideal 4344 target but is close enough. Wave (4) correction is underway: Zigzag, flat, triangle......