vietbach1990

vietbach1990 Updated 

Actually I do not believe Draghi's speech will be "very" hawkish. What gives me more confident to put this trade on is because the market may have oversold EUR. More particularly EURGBP (following PM Theresa May's last week comment). Retail sentiment is short EUR (except for the EURNZD - which is due to NZ's mixed election result) so I want to go Long. Technical...

vietbach1990

NZD has been weak since the stalemate election. I looked at this pair yesterday and thought I wanted to go short it given CAD is a strong currency and generally there are few major news for it this week (BOC Governor Poloz's speech tomorrow and the GDP on Friday). NZD in my opinion can remain surpressed as the NZ politician scramble to form a coalition...

vietbach1990

This morning JPY strengthen across the board due to Trump and North Korea's comment. In my opinion the move is quite overextended as now the prospect of another bomb test is no longer a surprised. Fundmentally EUR is a strong currency and the reaction yesterday from Draghi's speech was positive. EUR is due a string of data today, of which I expected them to be...

vietbach1990 Updated 

I expected USDJPY continue to drift upward today. Yesterday FOMC statement and Yellen's speech certainly helped a lot. Today is BOJ's turn and I really don't think they will reverse anything as their 2% inflation target is just still too far away. Actually since USDJPY strengthening, it helped push them toward their goal a bit closer and I think they will be more...

vietbach1990

NZD has strengthened across the board following the latest New Zealand election poll which places the ruling National Party in the lead with 46% of the votes and Labour behind on 37%. This is to me a much more a local issue and yet since AUD follows NZD closely, GBPAUD tanked too. Fundamentally, I am Bullish GBP and Neutral to Bearish on AUD, I'd like to fade...

vietbach1990 Updated 

Based on my statistics, the string of US data release will be dissappointing and the market so far sort of agree. The reason I want to go Long USDJPY is because if the market has priced in weakness and it match, there won't be much selling takes place. On the other if any of these data manage to surprise to the upside, I will be very happy. Why USDJPY? The...

vietbach1990 Updated 

So generally the MPC vote is expected to be Neutral and if we look through a bit, if it does comes out 7 Hold to 2 Hike as expected, GBP should be weaken. Now my intention is to look for clue if the market has already priced this in: on average, up to this point GBP is down with the most down being GBPAUD. Let's say the trend continues to in the next hour, my...

vietbach1990

Market is Net Sell USD, thinking it's probably will miss the CPI data despite the base expectation of a beat. Now actually I think it does even need to beat the expectation rather just an on target outcome will be enough to send the USD higher. We just had the GBP release which are very good. Eventhough the vote was Neutral as expected, there was hint of BOE...

vietbach1990 Updated 

We have USD PPI data coming up soon and I've been trying to decipher how the market may have anticipated this. Retail sentiment is Net Long of USD so my base expectation is unless its a better-than-expected number we shouldn't see too much of a jump in USD. Historically a beat is ~45% chances, going back to 2007 data. Now to position myself to the trade, there is...

vietbach1990 Updated 

This is very simple thesis, I want to go long into the GBP expected good data. Yesterday CPI is a very good encouragement and the market should keep trending upward toward the Cash rate vote tomorrow. I missed the intial drift from Asian session. I'd wish I can get up earlier or devote more time for this but simply can't with my Full-time analyst job...

vietbach1990

Beside my GBP trade, I'm also looking at US data release. It's a preset for tomorrow CPI release which also anticipated to be good. The reason I don't want to pull the trigger right away is because retail sentiment is also pointing toward a Short on this pair and that makes me worry maybe as the price increase and slowly work through all those SL I may have a...

vietbach1990 Updated 

This is related to my Long GBPNZD trade. As mentioned I thought GBPNZD is a bit over-extended but again I want to go with the fundamental Long GBP story anyway. Amongst all the GBP pair, GBPUSD is the one retails are net Short and I hope to bank as their SL gets hit. Fundamentally though I do understand some of their view as also think USD is supposed to get...

vietbach1990 Updated 

I had a really tough time choosing which pairs to trade for this news. Early morning the surprisingly dissapointed Business Confidence releases sent both AUD and NZD lower. As these two are the ones I've consider short against GBP I now face with a dilemma. If I am to go full Short now, I have a little to bank as the move may have overextended but then again...

vietbach1990 Updated 

NZDCAD erased all the gains from CAD rate hike. NZD is a high yield currency so understandably if they gain significantly against low yield currency such as USD but to gain a lot against another commodity currency such as CAD is puzzeling to me. Next week there is not much news for both NZD and CAD but the most significant data left this week is the CAD...

vietbach1990

Short term market sentiment can often drive the currency pair to a price level that does not make senses fundamentally. As my failed JPY trade unwinded in the morning, I've been too occupied with the NZDCAD play and totally disregarded the mean reversal aspect of FX as rate stray too far from general equilibrium. My observation: the overcrowded JPY trade should...

vietbach1990 Updated 

Tomorrow is North Korea national day and whether or not they will launch another missile is unknown (and if they do Trump will do something just about as stupid). I'm betting there will be some retreat to Risk off asset such as the JPY. The tricky thing is which pair to pick. I've already had exposure to NZD short and CAD long. My rationale is if there is...

vietbach1990

This is a double trade with my USDJPY short

vietbach1990 Updated 

Very quick and intuitive short. As I was typing my review of the EURAUD trade, and reviewing Draghi speech, the Short idea pops up and I went right in as it broke through 1.2 like a piece of cake. I put wide stop though..who knows it may retrace.