vinnieb92

vinnieb92

Yes the zones are massive. I wouldn't try to guess exactly where it will get rejected. But with 3-4X leverage or less it won't be an issue Short orders in the red zone. Maybe a long in the green 5.8 - 6.5k - we grinded in this range for months. There will be a lot of old long positions at this price range that have been underwater for a long time.

vinnieb92

Despite being in a downtrend, bitcoin looks very oversold on the 1 day chart. Hard to envision a big dump here

vinnieb92

Obviously there are only 2 pivotal pairs here. But even the minor pairs failing has led to some serious sell offs

vinnieb92

Meh

vinnieb92

Log scale. 3 key Horizontals, volume MA is 20 days and is still extremely high to be near a reversal. 5.8k is weak horizontal support since it's a retest 4.6k is the high prior to the September China FUD 2.6k is the high before the June correction Diagonal bear trend line is a bit of a meme, the lower we go the higher the chance it gets violated. Looking back...

vinnieb92

If you long 7.4 do it with a tight stop. If you short 9.5 do it with a tight stop. Bitcoin is ranging between these areas. TA for what happens in between doesn't really matter too much There will be a lot of bull/bear blood if either of these horizontals get broken. 9.5k level (if we even reach it) is a key fib level + neckline for double top + matches with the...

vinnieb92

A smaller rally / sideways motion for 10-12 days to relieve alts and trap longs. Then boom. Just a notion I had - no evidence that this will happen. But with current sentiment being so bearish and people so desperate for their alts to recover. A small little run up like this into a W bottom would be a very typical Bitcoin f%&! you movement.

vinnieb92

We're in oversold territory on the daily. Expecting a bounce somewhere in the 7's. My target of high 8's might be a bit optimistic, first signs of weakness and I will reload shorts on lower leverage. Everyone and their mother is bearish (again). Bitcoin rarely tanks when sentiment is like this. Medium term the only direction is down but I think a larger bulltrap...

vinnieb92 Updated 

Dewm, eventually

vinnieb92

I dont know anything about EW theory. I stole the larger ABC from someone, this is a super bearish count that's floating around already. The rest of the count is me being terrible. I will probably lose all my money seriously you should probably use this as a contra. I'm really just putting it here so that if I'm right I can brag. If wrong - delete and deny. Be homeless

vinnieb92

Disclaimer - Im trash at TA. But luckily keeping it simple and looking at the bigger trend. A clean break past 11,400 - 12,000 resistance is bullish. Until then it's (another) possible bull trap. Not bothered about the smaller time frames at all, too many bulls zooming in on that inverted H&S Short until proven otherwise. Not fighting the greater trend.

vinnieb92

Pro