Its Fed day, and this market loves its cowbell. Watch for a wedge break. Either way can get nasty. The downtrend from the beginning of October gets tagged around 2700 range. Big supply around 2721. Underbelly of up log trend from 2009 at 2750 range. Downside support 2575, then 2475.
If the $USD continues to fall it will add some fuel to the performance of Emerging Markets.
I for one would love the idea/concept to work. At this time there are clear hurdles to overcome which is displayed in the price action. Can 3100 hold?
I thought this chart was pretty cool. A historical scorecard of wins and losses. Also, it could end up being future support.
First attempt for price action to penetrate 2530 (previous beak down point) was not successful. The idea is that a failed trading range creates supply (Investors/traders that are caught long will look to liquidate once price gets them to break-even). The Bots and others know this..... they will attempt to front run this selling pressure. There were some massive...
Violent late day rip looks like its headed for 2530. 2 days until the funds close their books for the quarter/year.....probably a little window dressing. A failure to penetrate and hold 2530 will likely result in a free fall. Sentiment and price action indicators have been giving drastic oversold readings, but this indicators fall apart in Bear tapes. Both...
Traded through Feb lows and closed there yesterday. Bulls need a trade back up and through 2530 today, Bears want below 2742. Vix holding steady (no panic - yet). Big picture has major resistance at 2720 and major support, wait for it, 2100 area. I need a vacation!
The VIX ascent in February was larger than this December move to date. Either we have not had a capitulation in the S&P 500 yet, or there is a tapering in volatility premium defining a finishing corrective move. It seems tomorrows Fed announcement will tell us all we need to know. Either a continuation down, or end of year bounce.
Bulls will attempt to ride an inverse head & shoulders pattern this morning. Morning gaps have been smacked in the face. While directional players have been grabbing the Dramamine, the option sellers are hoping for a little Vol crush from Santa.
This washing machine action has me backing out to a weekly. Unless we get a massive up move to finish this week off (which I wouldn't find the least bit surprising) we will get our first weekly candle of trade cleanly below the logarithmic uptrend line going back to 2009.
Nothing like a 60 point rip to tear into bearish sentiment. Next hurdle is right here at the closing levels. The type of buying pressure today doesn't lead me to believe this is a big hook. However, the larger Macro back drop needs to be considered.....growth or inflation will be needed to take this market to new highs.....do we have either of the two? My...
Long term trend line, representing 9 years of a bull run, holding up against tougher economic conditions, tough Q1 2019 comps and an extremely brutal tape (every bounce being sold). All leads to an extreme pivot point. Be nimble!
Both Bulls and Bears get what they wanted - A Bounce! A break up above 2720, could see an epic short squeeze.
Bang! ES nailed the Long term trend going back to 2009. Can it hold is the question!
This caught my eye. 3.276 should be resistance going back to 1981.