The inverse relationship between yield and gold over the long term gives us an idea of what phase and dynamics of the market we are in.
The bottoms of the yields are the tops in gold; interestingly the bottoms happen in 4-year cycles, especially in summer, July or June; while the tops are every 5 years in fall, September or October.
Based on these dynamics, a...
GIVEN THE CURRENT MACRO ENVIROMENT WHERE UNEMPLOYMENT HAS STARTED TO RISE AND GDP READING WEAKER THAN EXPECTED, OPEC ALLIES KEEPS CUTING OUTPUT AND WEAKER DEMAND EXPECTATIONS, OIL MAY BE HEADING TO 75USD PER BARREL AS SOON AS THE NEXT WEEK.
BULL THESIS:
- Yields start to rise as bets on FED hike
- Strong economic data
- Middle east conflict escalates
- East...
ISM surveys show that prices are rising ; during April services and manufacturing prices advanced 10% on average.
The problem? Look at the chart comparing these price indexes to the traditional CPI inflation reading, ISMs are usually forward looking.
Inflation 2.0 is coming...
