1. Current Data and research
Macro Regime
Business cycle
- moving into recession territory. S&P is down from 6125 to 4842 at its lowest. That's a 21% drop - this crosses the 20% drop threshold.
Inflation
- Headline 2.4%. Slightly above 2% target. Core PCE is at 0.4%. This is higher than expected.
Monetary Policy
- Still at high interest rate levels of...
Tariffs are paused. CPI data was good, coming in at 2.4 instead of 2.5, indicating room for Fed to lower interest rates if economy gets worse. I expect prices to climb back up instead of getting pulled down by just China trade war.
Entry: 5200
SL: 5160
TP: 5500
Results of ideas thus far:
Number of trades: 4
WR: 25%
Profit: 0.9R
Notes: This is currently for...
Market overview and macro outlook
1. Tariffs, tariffs, tariffs
- The 104% tariffs response to China's response and possible 25% pharmaceutical tariffs are weighing down the markets
- Markets are expected to keep going down until some news of relief is announced
2. Upcoming news
- FOMC meeting on Wed - probably to the downside as it should be comments on keeping...
Market overview and macro outlook
Rise in the equities market mainly due to the possibility of a 90 days postponement of the tariffs
1. What can kill this optimism: A single Trump administration comment otherwise.
2. We've risen by close to 8% from the lows.
3. Until the postponement is confirmed, i don't think there's much upside, thus, the risk is to the...
Macro outlook for the remainder of the week
Upcoming News
US NFP at 430pm Fri
USD downside
Bad NFP report
USD upside
Good NFP report
News review
Liberation Day - Full-scale tariff were definitely not a good thing for the USD as investor fear of it causing a recession is currently outweighing the potential of keeping interest rates high to prevent...
News event for the week
JPY Tankan Large Manufacturing Index at Tuesday 350am (Over)
Long-term Chart
Major long-term trendline (Jan 23 - Current) uptrend line is still holding
Shorter trendline: LH and LL have been set since Oct.
Technical analysis
Prices are currently in no-man's land and there's no reason to enter from a technical...
Macro outlook for the week
News
PUTUS tweets throughout the week
Germany CPI at 4pm Monday
EURO CPI at 1pm Tuesday
US PMI at 6pm Tuesday
US ADP employment at 415pm Wed
CHF CPI at 1030am Thurs
US NFP at 430pm Fri
USD downside
Tariff risk - bad for USD
Bad NFP report
Bad PMI
USD upside
Good NFP report
Good PMI
Euro upside
Good CPI report (low cpi)
Euro...
