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Morgan Stanley and MUFG both see the Japanese yen as the strongest G10 currency in 2025. They expect it to gain value as U.S. interest rates fall and Japan’s central bank raises its own. On the daily chart, USD/JPY oscillators are still away from being in the oversold zone, suggesting that the path of least resistance could to the downside. MUFG predicts...

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The market is clearly becoming less nervous about headlines around tariffs. President Trump was on the wires talking about 25% tariffs on automobiles, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical products, and the market took it all in stride rather than panicking as we had seen weeks back. There is a clearer understanding that all of this is much more about strategy and...

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The United States and Russia recently held peace talks in Saudi Arabia without Ukraine’s participation. Russian officials did not mention offering any concessions and U.S. officials did not claim to have scored any in Tuesday's meeting. Adding to the unseriousness of the talks, Donald Trump called Zelensky a “dictator,” and suggested that Ukraine is responsible...

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Earlier today, the Reserve Bank of Australia cut rates by 25 basis points as widely expected. The accompanying communication leaned to the hawkish side with respect to the outlook on future rate cuts, which kept the Australian dollar propped up. As for Fed rate expectations, the market is currently pricing in 40 basis points of cuts in 2025. Meanwhile, risk...

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This analysis is provided by Eden Bradfeld at BlackBull Research—sign up for their Substack to receive the latest market insights straight to your inbox. Now, I do not think Brown Forman will return to 32x earnings anytime soon — if ever — but if you even half the implied return from multiple expansion you still have plenty of upside. Ditto Remy — I do not...

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Six weeks ago, a Conservative victory in the next Canadian election seemed inevitable. Now, that certainty is fading. Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre's support from the American right, including Elon Musk, is becoming a potential liability as Canada faces an unprecedented challenge: the U.S. president openly questioning its viability as a nation,...