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War , Bitcoin , and the Myth of Safe Havens...Hello Traders 🐺 "You think Bitcoin is digital gold? Wait until the bombs drop." Everyone talks about Bitcoin as a hedge. A hedge against inflation. Against fiat. Against banking failures. But let me ask you this: Is Bitcoin a hedge against war? I’m not here to give you a yes or no. I’m here to make you uncomfortable — Because if you think BTC always pumps when chaos hits, you're trading dreams, not reality. Let’s dissect this. No fluff. ⚔️ 1. Real Wars. Real Charts. Let’s test your assumptions against actual history: Feb 2022 (Ukraine invaded): BTC dumps hard. Then... recovers. Was it a hedge? Or just the market gasping for liquidity? Oct 2023 (Middle East escalates): BTC spikes. Why? Was it fear of fiat instability? Or just algo-driven momentum? April 2024 (Hormuz Strait tensions): Whipsaws. No clear direction. So again: what exactly is BTC reacting to? 👉 Are you reading price? Or just feeding a narrative you want to believe? 🧠 2. Bitcoin = Fear Thermometer? In war, people flee. Banks freeze. Censorship rises. Panic spreads. Some run to gold. Some run to the dollar. A few... run to BTC. But don’t forget: Most retail investors panic sell. Institutions vanish. Liquidity dies. So here’s the punchline: BTC isn't a safe haven. It's a sentiment mirror — brutally honest and totally unstable. Still wanna call it "digital gold"? 💣 3. War Doesn’t Create Trends. It Exposes Bias. Most of you are trying to fit BTC’s price into a geopolitical event. Wrong approach. You should be asking: What kind of war is this? Does it shake the dollar? Does it cause capital controls? Does it threaten global liquidity? BTC doesn’t care about explosions. It cares about trust. Break trust in fiat? BTC might thrive. Spike short-term fear? BTC might collapse. Simple enough? 📉 4. The Hard Truth: Most of You Can’t Read War No offense — but most retail traders don’t understand geopolitics. They just look at headlines and wait for a green candle. So here’s your challenge: Next time war breaks out, ask yourself: “Is this bullish for BTC — or just loud?” Be honest. Don’t just copy Twitter takes. 🔍 5. If You're Long BTC Because of War — You Better Know Why. BTC might go up. BTC might tank. But if your reason is just “the world is collapsing” — you’re gambling, not investing. Ask the deeper questions: Are people losing faith in centralized systems? Are borders tightening? Are currencies being weaponized? BTC shines only when sovereignty collapses. Not just when missiles fly. 🧠 Final Thoughts War doesn't pump BTC. Distrust does. Learn the difference — or keep trading headlines. 💬 Your move. Would you hold Bitcoin during a war? Why? Drop the cliché answers. Give me logic. 👇 Let’s debate.
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by Kiu_Coin
17
Master Your Edge: It’s Not About Just Being Right Most traders obsess over being right on every trade. But the truth is, consistent profitability doesn’t come from perfect predictions—it comes from disciplined risk management. Mark Douglas reminds us: “Trading is not about being right or wrong. It’s about how much you make when you’re right and how much you lose when you’re wrong.” Focus less on proving yourself right, and more on protecting your capital when you’re wrong. That’s how professionals thrive in uncertain markets. #MJTrading #TradingPsychology #MarkDouglas #ForexMindset #TraderMindset #EURUSD #TradingQuotes #ForexLife #RiskManagement #TradingDiscipline #ForexEducation #ChartOfTheDay #PriceAction #MindOverMarkets
Education
by MJElahifx
2
Example of how to draw a trend line using the StochRSI indicator Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- We use the StochRSI indicator to draw a trend line. We draw a trend line by connecting the peaks of the StochRSI indicator, i.e. the K line, when they are created in the overbought area or when they are created in the overbought area. That is, when the K line of the StochRSI indicator forms a peak in the overbought area, the trend line is drawn by connecting the Open values ​​of the falling candles. If the candle corresponding to the peak of the StochRSI indicator is a rising candle, move to the right and use the Open value of the first falling candle. When drawing the first trend line, draw it from the latest candle. Since the third trend line indicates a new trend, do not draw anything after the third trend line. The currently drawn trend line corresponds to the high-point trend line. - Therefore, you should also draw the low-point trend line. The low-point trend line is drawn by connecting the K line of the StochRSI indicator when the top is formed in the oversold zone. The low-point trend line uses the low value of the candle when the K line of the StochRSI indicator forms the top in the oversold zone. That is, it doesn't matter whether the candle is a bearish candle or a bullish candle. The drawing method is the same as when drawing the high-point trend line, drawing from the latest candle. The top of the best K line of the StochRSI indicator was not formed within the oversold zone. (The top is indicated by the section marked with a circle.) Since the trend line was not formed, the principle is not to draw it. If you want to draw it and see it, it is better to display it differently from the existing trend line so that it is intuitively different from the existing trend line. - The chart below is a chart that displays the trend line drawn separately above as a whole. It is also good to distinguish which trend line it is by changing the color of the high-point trend line and the low-point trend line. The chart below is a chart that distinguishes the high-point trend line in blue (#5b9cf6) and the low-point trend line in light green (#00ff00). The low-point trend line is a line drawn when the trend has changed, so it does not have much meaning, but it still provides good information for calculating the volatility period. - To calculate the volatility period, support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts are required. However, since I am currently explaining how to draw a trend line, it is only drawn on the 1M chart. - I use the indicators used in my chart to indicate support and resistance points. That is, I use the DOM(60), DOM(-60), HA-Low, HA-High, and OBV indicators to indicate support and resistance points. Since the DOM(-60) and HA-Low indicators are not displayed on the 1M chart, I have shown the 1W chart as an example. The indicators displayed up to the current candle correspond to the main support and resistance points. Although it is not displayed up to the current candle, the point where the horizontal line is long is drawn as the sub-support and resistance point. It is recommended to mark them separately to distinguish the main support and resistance point and the sub-support and resistance point. The trend line drawn in this way and the support and resistance points are correlated on the 1D chart and the volatility period is calculated. (For example, it was drawn on the 1M chart.) The sections marked as circles are the points that serve as the basis for calculating the volatility period. That is, - The point where multiple trend lines intersect - The point where the trend line and the support and resistance points intersect Select the point that satisfies the above cases at the same time to display the volatility period. When the point of calculating the volatility period is ambiguous, move to the left and select the first candle. This is because it is meaningless to display it after the volatility period has passed. If possible, the more points that are satisfied at the same time, the stronger the volatility period. If the K-line peak of the StochRSI indicator is formed outside the overbought or oversold zone, it is better to exclude it when calculating the volatility period. - The chart below is a chart drawn on a 1D chart by summarizing the above contents. The reason why there are so many lines is because of this reason. For those who are not familiar with my charts, I have been simplifying the charts as much as possible these days. However, when explaining, I have shown all the indicators to help you understand the explanation. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
FX quarter end : a high-probability recurring patternAs we approach the end of June, a well-known phenomenon among FX traders is once again coming into focus: when currencies have diverged significantly over the course of a month or quarter, we often see a technical correction into the final trading session, with partial pullbacks in the pairs that had previously moved the most. This end-of-month or quarter pattern is not random. It is the predictable result of recurring institutional flows. Recently, the US dollar has notably weakened against most major currencies. As a result, we could anticipate a modest bounce in the dollar to close out the month and start the new week, as various participants are likely to adjust their positions accordingly. Performance of FX futures contracts from Sunday, June 1 to Friday, June 27: Swiss Franc +3.71% Euro +3.61% British Pound +1.95% New Zealand Dollar +1.58% Australian Dollar +1.50% Canadian Dollar +0.67% Japanese Yen +0.16% Performance of FX futures contracts from Tuesday, April 1 to Friday, June 27: Swiss Franc +10.73% Euro +8.40% New Zealand Dollar +6.90% British Pound +6.26% Canadian Dollar +5.23% Australian Dollar +4.80% Japanese Yen +3.68% These figures illustrate a broad-based decline in the dollar during June and over the entire second quarter. Historically, such imbalances open the door to late-stage adjustments, with currencies that have risen sharply often seeing modest technical pullbacks. This is a setup closely monitored by FX traders, who view it as a high-probability opportunity based on a pattern that is rare, but remarkably consistent. FX rebalancing: mechanics and market players At the heart of these adjustments lies one key concept: rebalancing. This is the process by which institutional players, pension funds, insurers, central banks, passive managers, bond funds, corporates adjust their FX exposures to stay in line with the targets defined in their mandates. Every month, the value of their assets (equities, bonds, alternatives) and currency holdings fluctuate. If a currency appreciates sharply, its weight in the portfolio may become too high. Conversely, if a currency weakens, exposure might fall below target. Rebalancing involves buying or selling FX to return to those target allocations. This process is recurring, predictable, and usually concentrated in a narrow window, the final hours of the trading month, just before the London 4pm fix. Quarter-ends tend to be even more pronounced, as many investors revisit long-term strategic allocations at that time. Many of these adjustments are driven by systematic models using fixed thresholds, which adds to the consistency and timing of these flows. Ideal setup: low volatility, high impact June 2025 ends in a particularly calm environment: equity markets are stable or even rising, and the VIX is trading near its yearly lows, signs of a quiet and balanced market that favors more technical trading. This context is favorable for strategies aiming to take advantage of rebalancing effects, as in the absence of new announcements or unexpected events, these adjustments are likely to have a tangible impact on prices. Conversely, in a more volatile market environment, such adjustments could be drowned out by larger flows (such as a flight to quality), thus having a reduced or even negligible impact. FX options: another layer of flows Another important factor on Monday, June 30: a large number of FX options expire at 10am New York (3pm London). These expiries cover several major pairs, with significant notional amounts concentrated near current spot levels. According to what is currently being whispered on trading desk chat rooms, we expect the following large expiries: EUR/USD: €3.0bn at 1.1650 (below spot) USD/JPY: $1.6bn at 145.50 (above spot) USD/CHF: $1.8bn at 0.8000 (above spot) GBP/USD: £1.0bn at 1.3600 (below spot) AUD/USD: A$1.1bn at 0.6425 (below spot) When spot approaches these strikes, option holders or sellers may intervene to "pin" prices, based on their delta exposure. This behavior can amplify technical price movements in the hours before expiration. When these heavy expirations align with month/quarter end rebalancing flows in a quiet, low-volatility market, it creates a strong potential cocktail for tactical moves, conducive to a dollar rebound into the fix. How to trade the pattern effectively Here’s a simplified roadmap to navigate this recurring pattern: Identify monthly or quarterly extremes: look for the currencies that gained or lost the most over the period; Assess the market environment: a low VIX, no major data or central bank events, meaningful trends, and significant options expiries are ideal conditions; Use liquid and transparent instruments: Sep 2025 FX futures (standard, e-mini or micro) are currently the most suitable products for active positioning Set realistic expectations: aim for a 0.5% to 1.0% pullback, not a full-blown trend reversal Manage risk properly: as with any strategy, always use a stop-loss. This is quantitative trading, not fortune-telling. If the USD continues to weaken despite the setup, be ready to exit swiftly. In short... Quarter/month end FX rebalancing is one of the few market events where anticipated institutional flows can create repeatable, high-probability trading opportunities. These flows stem from real portfolio needs and systematic re-hedging, and are often amplified by option expiries and technical positioning. This setup provides a great educational case study for any trader seeking to better understand hidden FX dynamics. There’s no secret indicator or crystal ball here, just a solid grasp of structural flows and timing. From a personal standpoint, after over 20 years trading currencies, this strategy remains one of my favorites: simple, effective, and highly instructive. I encourage you to study it closely, and observe its behavior during upcoming month-end windows. --- When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: tradingview.com/cme/ . This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CME:6E1!Education
by satelysfx
Embracing Uncertainty In trading, the illusion of certainty is often our biggest enemy. Even the cleanest setups—like a MTR (Major Trend Reversal)—can fail. Mark Douglas said it best: “Anything can happen.” This simple truth is what keeps professional traders humble and disciplined. Respect the market, manage your risk, and never assume you know what comes next. Stay sharp. #MJTrading #GoldTrading #XAUUSD #TradingPsychology #AnythingCanHappen #MarkDouglas #ForexMindset #TradingQuotes #PriceAction #RiskManagement #MindOverMarkets #ChartOfTheDay #MJTrading
EIGHTCAP:XAUUSDEducation
by MJElahifx
Weather and Corn: Understanding the Precipitation Factor1. Introduction: Rain, Grain, and Market Chain Reactions In the world of agricultural commodities, few forces carry as much weight as weather — and when it comes to corn, precipitation is paramount. Unlike temperature, which can have nuanced and sometimes ambiguous effects depending on the growth stage, rainfall exerts a more direct and consistent influence on crop performance. For traders, understanding the role of rainfall in shaping market sentiment and price behavior isn't just an agricultural curiosity — it's a trading edge. This article unpacks the relationship between weekly rainfall levels and corn futures prices. By leveraging normalized weather data and historical returns from Corn Futures (ZC), we aim to translate weather signals into actionable market insights. Whether you're managing large agricultural positions or exploring micro futures like MZC, precipitation patterns can provide vital context for your trades. 2. Corn’s Moisture Dependency Corn is not just sensitive to water — it thrives or suffers because of it. From the moment seeds are planted, the crop enters a delicate dance with precipitation. Too little moisture during the early stages can impair root development. Too much during germination may lead to rot. And during pollination — particularly the tasseling and silking stages — insufficient rainfall can cause the plant to abort kernels, drastically reducing yield. On the other hand, excessive rainfall isn't necessarily beneficial either. Prolonged wet periods can saturate soil, hinder nutrient uptake, and encourage fungal diseases. Farmers in the U.S. Corn Belt — particularly in states like Iowa, Illinois, and Nebraska — know this well. A single unexpected weather shift in these regions can send ripple effects across global markets, causing speculators to reassess their positions. For traders, these weather events aren’t just environmental footnotes — they are catalysts that influence prices, volatility, and risk sentiment. And while annual production is important, it's the week-to-week rhythm of the growing season where short-term trades are born. 3. Our Data-Driven Approach: Weekly Rainfall and Corn Returns To understand how rainfall impacts price, we collected and analyzed decades of historical weather and futures data, aligning weekly precipitation totals from major corn-growing regions with weekly returns from Corn Futures (ZC). The weather data was normalized using percentiles for each location and week of the year. We then assigned each weekly observation to one of three precipitation categories: Low rainfall (<25th percentile) Normal rainfall (25th–75th percentile) High rainfall (>75th percentile) We then calculated the weekly percent change in corn futures prices and matched each return to the rainfall category for that week. The result was a dataset that let us measure not just general trends but statistically significant shifts in market behavior based on weather. One key finding stood out: the difference in returns between low-rainfall and high-rainfall weeks was highly significant, with a p-value of approximately 0.0006. 4. What the Numbers Tell Us The results are striking. During low-rainfall weeks, corn futures often posted higher average returns, suggesting that the market responds to early signs of drought with anticipatory price rallies. Traders and institutions appear to adjust positions quickly when weather models hint at below-normal moisture during key growth stages. In contrast, high-rainfall weeks displayed lower returns on average — and greater variability. While rain is essential, excess moisture raises fears of waterlogging, planting delays, and quality issues at harvest. The futures market, ever forward-looking, seems to price in both optimism and concern depending on the volume of rain. Boxplots of these weekly returns reinforce the pattern: drier-than-usual weeks tend to tilt bullish, while wetter periods introduce uncertainty. For discretionary and algorithmic traders alike, this insight opens the door to strategies that incorporate weather forecasts into entry, exit, and risk models. 📊 Boxplot Chart: Weekly corn futures returns plotted against precipitation category (low, normal, high). This visual helps traders grasp how price behavior shifts under varying rainfall conditions. 5. Strategy: How Traders Can Position Themselves With the clear statistical link between rainfall extremes and price behavior in corn futures, the logical next step is applying this insight to real-world trading. One straightforward approach is to incorporate weather forecast models into your weekly market prep. If a key growing region is expected to receive below-normal rainfall, that could serve as a signal for a potential bullish bias in the upcoming trading sessions. This doesn’t mean blindly buying futures on dry weeks, but rather layering this data into a broader trading thesis. For example, traders could combine weather signals with volume surges, technical breakouts, or news sentiment to form confluence-based setups. On the risk management side, understanding how price behaves during extreme weather periods can inform smarter stop-loss placements, position sizing, or even the use of option strategies to protect against unexpected reversals. Additionally, this information becomes particularly valuable during the planting and pollination seasons, when the corn crop is most vulnerable and the market reacts most strongly. Knowing the historical patterns of price behavior in those weeks — and aligning them with current forecast data — offers a clear edge that fundamental and technical analysis alone may not reveal. 🗺️ Global Corn Map Screenshot: A world map highlighting major corn-growing regions with weather overlay. This helps illustrate the geographic variability in rainfall and how it intersects with key production zones. 6. Corn Futures Contracts: Speculating with Flexibility For traders looking to act on this kind of seasonal weather intelligence, CME Group provides two practical tools: the standard-size Corn Futures contract (ZC) and the Micro Corn Futures contract (MZC). Here are some quick key points to remember: Tick size for ZC is ¼ cent (0.0025) per bushel, equating to $12.50 per tick. For MZC, each tick is 0.0050 equating to $2.50 per tick. Standard ZC initial margin is approximately $1,000 and MZC margins are around $100 per contract, though this can vary by broker. Micro contracts are ideal for those who want exposure to corn prices without the capital intensity of full-size contracts. They’re especially helpful for weather-based trades, where your thesis may rely on shorter holding periods, rapid scaling, or position hedging. 7. Conclusion: Rain’s Role in the Corn Trade Precipitation isn’t just a farmer’s concern — it’s a trader’s opportunity. Our analysis shows that weather data, especially rainfall, has a statistically significant relationship with corn futures prices. By normalizing historical precipitation data and matching it to weekly returns, we uncovered a clear pattern: drought stress tends to lift prices, while excessive moisture creates volatility and downside risk. For futures traders, understanding this dynamic adds another layer to market analysis. As part of a broader series, this article is just one piece of a puzzle that spans multiple commodities and weather variables. Stay tuned for our upcoming releases, where we’ll continue exploring how nature’s forces shape the futures markets. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv
StochRSI indicator and support and resistance levels Hello, traders. If you "follow" me, you can always get the latest information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- The StochRSI indicator on the left chart is slightly different from the StochRSI indicator on the right. The StochRSI indicator on the left chart is the StochRSI indicator provided by default in TradingView, and the StochRSI indicator on the right chart is an indicator with a modified formula. The StochRSI indicator is a leading indicator that is reflected almost in real time. Therefore, it reacts sensitively to price changes. Although it is advantageous because it reacts sensitively, it also increases the possibility of being caught in a fake, so I thought that a slight delay(?) was necessary, and so I created the StochRSI indicator on the left chart. If you look at the relationship between the K and D of the StochRSI indicators on the two charts, you can see that there is a big difference. In the end, you can predict the movement by checking whether the movement of the K line has escaped the overbought or oversold section. However, I think that you will receive information that can determine the sustainability of the trend depending on the positional relationship between K and D. Therefore, it is important to distinguish the inflection points that occur in the StochRSI indicator. This is because these inflection points provide important information for drawing trend lines. Therefore, the StochRSI indicator on the left chart, which better expresses the inflection point, is being used to draw the trend line. (Unfortunately, this indicator was not registered on TradingView because I did not explain it well.) - As a new candle was created, the StochRSI indicator on the left chart is showing an inflection point on the K line. The StochRSI indicator on the right chart is showing a transition to a state where K < D. We will have to check whether the inflection point was created only when today's candle closes, but I think that the fact that it is showing this pattern means that there is a high possibility of a change in the future trend. Since the next volatility period is expected to start around July 2nd (July 1st-3rd), I think it has started to show meaningful movements. - It is true that you want to buy at the lowest price possible and sell at the highest price. However, because of this greed, one mistake can lead to a loss that can overturn nine victories, so you should always be careful. Therefore, if possible, it is better to check for support and respond. In that sense, I think it is worth referring to the relationship between K and D of the StochRSI indicator on the left chart. This is because the actual downtrend is likely to start when K < D. - In order to check for support, you definitely need support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. Ignoring this and checking for support at the drawn support and resistance points can result in not being able to apply the chart you drew to actual trading. Therefore, you should draw support and resistance points first before starting a trade. Otherwise, if you draw support and resistance points after starting a trade, you are more likely to set support and resistance points that reflect your subjective thoughts, so as I mentioned earlier, you are more likely to lose faith in the chart you drew. If this phenomenon continues, it will eventually lead to leaving the investment market. - It is important to determine whether there is support by checking the correlation between the StochRSI indicator and other indicators at the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. Even if the inflection point of the StochRSI indicator or other indicators occurs at a point other than the support and resistance points you drew, you should consider it as something that occurred beyond your ability to handle. In other words, you should observe the price movement but not actually trade. As I mentioned earlier, if you start to violate this, you will become less and less able to trust the chart you drew. - Accordingly, the basic trading strategy I suggest is to buy near the HA-Low indicator and sell near the HA-High indicator. However, since the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are expressed as average values, they may move in the opposite direction to the basic trading strategy. In other words, if the HA-Low indicator is resisted and falls, there is a possibility of a stepwise downward trend, and if the HA-High indicator is supported and rises, there is a possibility of a stepwise upward trend. Therefore, the basic trading strategy mentioned above can be considered a trading strategy in the box section. In the case of deviating from this box section, it is highly likely to occur before and after the volatility period indicated by the relationship between the trend line using the StochRSI indicator mentioned above and the support and resistance points drawn on the 1M, 1W, and 1D charts. Therefore, special care is required when conducting new transactions during the volatility period. This is because there is a high possibility of being caught in a fake when trading during the volatility period. - The DOM(60) and DOM(-60) indicators are good indicators to look at together with the HA-Low and HA-High indicators. The DOM indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates the DMI, OBV, and MOMENTUM indicators. Therefore, the DOM(60) indicator is likely to be at the end of the high point range, and the DOM(060) indicator is likely to be at the end of the low point range. In the explanation of the HA-Low and HA-High indicators, - I said that if the HA-Low indicator receives resistance and falls, there is a possibility that a stepwise downtrend will begin, - and if the HA-High indicator receives support and rises, there is a possibility that a stepwise uptrend will begin. In order for an actual stepwise downtrend to begin, the price must fall below DOM(-60), and in order for a stepwise uptrend to begin, it must rise above DOM(60). In other words, the DOM(-60) ~ HA-Low section and the HA-High ~ DOM(60) section can be seen as support and resistance sections. - If these correlations start to appear, I think you will be able to create a trading strategy that fits your investment style without being swayed by price volatility and proceed with trading. The reason for analyzing charts is to trade. Therefore, the shorter the time for chart analysis, the better, and you should increase the start of creating a trading strategy. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Velocity Market Conditions Explained.There are 6 primary upside Market Conditions. Currently the stock market is in a Velocity Market Condition where price and runs are controlled by retail investors, retail swing traders, retail day traders and the huge group of Small Funds Managers using VWAP ORDERS to buy shares of stock with an automated systematic buy order trigger when the volume in that stock starts to rise. The more volume in a stock the faster the VWAP order will trigger. You task is to study Dark Pool hidden and quiet accumulation bottoming formations to be ready for the Velocity Market Condition that always follows. Price is a primary indicator. Volume is a primary Indicator. These are the most important indicators in your trading charting software tools. The next most important indicator is Large lot versus Small lot indicators which are NOT based on volume but more complex formulations. HFTs use algorithms, AI, social media discussions etc. To ride the Velocity wave upward, you must enter the stock before the run upward. Learning to read charts as easily takes practice and experience. The benefit is the ability to forecast with a very high degree of accuracy what that stock will due in terms of rising profits, over the next few days or longer. Candlesticks have many new candle patterns that have just developed in the past couple of years. The stock market is evolving at a fast pace and the internal market structure that you can't see is only visible in the candlesticks, large lot vs small lot indicators, and other semi professional to professional level tools for analyzing stocks. The stock market is changing and becoming far more tiered with more off exchange transactions. Learn to read charts so that you can trade with higher confidence and higher revenues.
NASDAQ:MSFTEducation
by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader
Internal and external liquidity Here's another mechanical lesson for you. In my last post I covered a mechanical technique to identify swing ranges. Rule-based, simple and repeatable. In this post, I want to share another little technique, again part of the mechanical series. But this time I want to talk about liquidity. Most traders talk about liquidity, they might even have a grasp of what it is. But most do not know how liquidity forms the sentiment and how that creates a type of algo for the market. You might have heard of Elliott wave theory. There is a saying along the lines of "you ask 10 Elliott traders for their count and you get 11 answers". But the point is here, when you simplify the concept, it's clear to see that sentiment caused by liquidity swings is what causes a repeatable pattern in the market. Let's take the idea of the ranges from my last post. Now after a fair amount of accumulation, this level becomes "defended" - the price will gradually move up until old short stop losses are tagged and new long entries are entered into. This allows the institutional players to open up their orders without setting off the alarm bells. Price then comes back from external liquidity to find internal liquidity (more on this in a later post). But then it looks for the next fresh highs. As the highs are put in, we can use the range technique to move our range to the new area as seen in the image above. Next we will be looking for an internal move, not just internal to the range, but a fractal move on the smaller timeframe that drives the pullback down. See this in blue. The logic here is simple; on the smaller timeframes we have witnessed an accumulation at the 2 region and as we spike up for 3; we will witness a distribution on the smaller timeframes. Wyckoff called this the accumulation, followed by a mark-up and then the distribution and a mark-down. It is this pattern, over and over again that leads to this type of structure. This will then be re-branded by various analysts who will call it things like a head and shoulders, smart money will see a change of character and a retest before breaking the structure. This is all the same thing - just a different naming convention. Again, I hope this helps some of you out there! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mayfair_Ventures
2
Skeptic| Cycle Mastery Part 1: HWC, MWC, LWC for Smarter TradingUnderstanding Higher Wave Cycle ( HWC ), Minor Wave Cycle ( MWC ), and Low Wave Cycle ( LWC ) is the key to making informed trading decisions, simplifying when to go long , short , or stay out . This Part 1 masterclass introduces these cycles, their relative nature, and how to align them with your strategy for precise entries and effective risk management . Let’s break it down. 📊 The Three Cycles: HWC, MWC, LWC We trade across three market cycles: HWC (Higher Wave Cycle) : The big-picture trend, like Bitcoin’s yearly uptrend. MWC (Minor Wave Cycle): A medium-term trend, often an uptrend or corrective phase within the HWC. LWC (Low Wave Cycle): The short-term daily trend, which can be range-bound, uptrend, or downtrend. Knowing these cycles helps you decide when to e nter long, short, or avoid trading altogether, ensuring you align with the market’s rhythm. Defining Your Cycles: It’s Relative The main question before diving in: What timeframes are HWC, MWC, and LWC? The answer is relative—it depends on your strategy. Think of it like a temperature scale: 0°C isn’t “no heat” but a reference point (water’s freezing point). Similarly, your cycles are defined by the largest timeframe you analyze: HWC: Your highest timeframe (e.g., Weekly for long-term traders). MWC: The next level down (e.g., Daily). LWC: Your shortest timeframe (e.g., 4-Hour or 1-Hour). Ask yourself: What’s the largest timeframe I check? Set your HWC there, then scale down for MWC and LWC based on your trading style. This relativity ensures your cycles fit your unique approach. While shorter cycles (LWC, MWC) form the HWC, the HWC’s power dominates, influencing smaller cycles. Let’s explore how to trade based on these relationships. Trading Scenarios: When to Act Scenario 1: HWC Uptrend, MWC Range When the HWC is in an uptrend and the MWC is range-bound: Action: Enter a long position on the first MWC wave when the LWC breaks the ceiling of the MWC range (e.g., a box breakout). Why? The HWC’s bullish power supports the move, likely triggering an MWC uptrend. This makes the first wave a strong, low-risk entry. Example: If the LWC (e.g., 4-hour) breaks the MWC range ceiling with a strong candle, you can confidently go long, backed by the HWC uptrend. Scenario 2: HWC Downtrend, MWC Range When the HWC is in a downtrend and the MWC is range-bound: Action: Skip the first MWC wave. If the LWC breaks the MWC range ceiling, avoid going long—the bearish HWC could reject the move, resuming its downtrend. Wait for the Second Wave: Let the MWC return to a range after the first wave. If the LWC breaks the range ceiling again, go long with confidence—the HWC’s influence is less likely to disrupt this second wave. Risk Management Tips (if you trade the first wave against the HWC): Reduce Risk: Lower your position size to minimize exposure. Take Profits Early: Close the position or secure most profits (e.g., scale out) once you hit your R/R target, as volatility is high. Wider Stop-Loss: Set a larger stop-loss to account for potential HWC-driven reversals, as stop-loss hunts are common in this scenario. Adjusting Stop-Loss Size Based on Cycles Aligned Cycles (HWC, MWC, LWC in Same Direction): When all three cycles align (e.g., all uptrend), set a tighter stop-loss relative to market conditions. Gradually scale out profits instead of closing the position, as the trend’s strength supports higher R/R (e.g., 5 or 10). HWC Against MWC/LWC: If the HWC opposes the other cycles (e.g., HWC downtrend, MWC/LWC uptrend), use a wider stop-loss. The HWC’s power could reverse the LWC, lowering your win rate if stops are too tight. Expect volatility and plan accordingly. Final Vibe Check This Cycle Mastery Part 1 equips you to time MWC waves with precision, aligning HWC, MWC, and LWC for smarter entries. By mastering when to trade the first or second wave, you’ll avoid traps and maximize your edge. Part 2 will dive deeper with examples—stay tuned! At Skeptic Lab, we trade with no FOMO, no hype, just reason. Protect your capital—stick to 1%–2% risk per trade. Want Part 2 or another topic? Drop it in the comments! If this guide sharpened your game, hit that boost—it fuels my mission! 😊 Stay disciplined, fam! ✌️ 💬 Let’s Talk! How will you time your MWC waves? Share your thoughts in the comments, and let’s crush it together!
Education
by SkepticWise
1
Mastering Delta–Volume Divergence 🎓 Mastering Delta–Volume Divergence: How to Read Institutional Absorption and Trap Setups ⸻ 1️⃣ What Is Delta? Delta measures the net aggression between buyers and sellers: • Market Buys: traders lifting the ask • minus • Market Sells: traders hitting the bid ✅ Positive Delta indicates stronger buying pressure. ✅ Negative Delta indicates stronger selling pressure. Delta shows who is initiating trades, not just that trading is occurring. ⸻ 2️⃣ What Is Volume? Volume measures the total number of contracts traded, regardless of who initiated them. Every matched buy and sell contributes equally to volume. Volume reveals activity, but not who controls the move. ⸻ 3️⃣ What Is Delta–Volume Divergence? Delta–Volume Divergence occurs when: ✅ Volume is high (lots of trades happening), ✅ But Delta is near zero (neither side dominates). This signals: • Intense two-sided activity between buyers and sellers, • Strong participation on both sides, • Passive absorption—institutions quietly filling large orders without moving price significantly. ⸻ 4️⃣ Chart Breakdown – Bar by Bar Below is a clear example of this concept in practice, reviewing each daily bar from your footprint chart: ⸻ 🔴 June 24 • Delta: -8,240 (strong net selling) • Volume: 575,720 (very high) • Interpretation: • Heavy, aggressive selling. • Clear trend-confirming action. • No divergence. ⸻ 🟢 June 25 • Delta: +4,650 (net buying) • Volume: 343,990 (moderate) • Interpretation: • Counter-trend buying or short covering. • Less volume and less conviction. ⸻ 🟢 June 26 • Delta: +2,690 (mild net buying) • Volume: 416,820 (higher) • Interpretation: • Rising volume but weaker delta. • Early sign of balance developing. • Possible absorption beginning. ⸻ 🟨 June 27 (Critical Bar) • Delta: +272 (near zero) • Volume: 540,310 (very high) • Interpretation: • Huge volume churn. • Neither buyers nor sellers in control. • Likely institutional absorption of aggressive orders. ✅ This is a textbook example of Delta–Volume Divergence. ⸻ 5️⃣ Why This Matters Professional Insight: • Sellers had been aggressive for several sessions. • Suddenly, volume remained elevated, but delta flatlined. • This suggests: • Exhaustion of selling aggression, or • Institutional accumulation and passive positioning. This often sets the stage for: • A trap reversal (short squeeze), or • A continuation flush if sellers regroup and push lower. ⸻ 6️⃣ Confirmation Scenarios Scenario A: Bearish Continuation • Watch for renewed strong negative delta (e.g., -5,000 or worse). • Price remains below the last support (~3,250). • Confirms absorption failed and sellers remain dominant. Scenario B: Short Squeeze Reversal • Price reclaims the VAL (~3,285–3,300). • Delta flips strongly positive (+5,000 or more). • Trapped shorts begin covering, driving price back toward supply. ⸻ 7️⃣ Common Misinterpretation ⚠️ High volume alone does NOT mean momentum. Key Point: If delta is flat, high volume simply means churn, not directional energy. This is why inexperienced traders often get caught: • They see heavy volume and assume a breakout is underway. • In reality, the market is absorbing liquidity to trap both sides. ⸻ 8️⃣ Professional Tips for Trading Divergence ✅ Wait for confirmation before entering: • Clear delta shifts, and • Price reclaiming or rejecting key levels. ✅ Be aware of stop zones: • Under recent lows if buyers fail, • Above recent range if sellers get exhausted. ✅ Avoid trading during pure churn without clear follow-through. ⸻ 9️⃣ Quick Recap ✅ Delta–Volume Divergence: High volume, flat delta, no clear directional control. ✅ Typically signals absorption and position buildup. ✅ Requires confirmation before committing to trades. ✅ Recognizing it helps you avoid traps and false breakouts. ⸻ 🔟 Final Thought Learning to read divergence is what separates professional traders from retail: “Volume tells you how hard the market is working. Delta tells you who’s winning.” Combine both to see the hidden game behind every price bar. ⸻ ⚠️ Disclaimer: This lesson is for educational purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by ICHIMOKUontheNILE
2
SMC Trading Basics. Change of Character - CHoCH (GOLD FOREX) In the today's post, we will discuss one of the most crucial concepts in SMC - Change of Character. Change of Character relates to market trend analysis. In order to understand its meaning properly, first, we will discuss how Smart Money traders execute trend analysis. 🔘Smart Money Traders apply price action for the identification of the direction of the market. They believe that the trend is bullish , if the price forms at least 2 bullish impulse with 2 consequent higher highs and a higher low between them. The market trend is considered to be bearish , if the market forms at least 2 bearish impulses with 2 consequent lower lows and a lower high between them. Here is how the trend analysis looks in practice. One perceives the price action as the set of impulse and retracement legs. According to the rules described above, USDCAD is trading in a bullish trend because the pair set 2 higher lows and 2 higher highs. 🔘Of course, trends do not last forever. A skill of the identification of the market reversal is a key to substantial profits in trading. Change of Character will help you quite accurately identify a bullish and bearish trend violation. 📉In a bearish trend, the main focus is the level of the last lower high. While the market is trading below or on that, the trend remains bearish . However, its bullish violation is a very important bullish signal, it is called a Change of Character, and it signifies a confirmed violation of a bearish trend. In a bearish trend, CHoCH is a very powerful bullish pattern. Take a look, how accurate CHoCH indicated the trend reversal on Gold. After a massive selloff, a bullish breakout of the level of the last lower high confirmed the initiation of a strong bullish wave. 📈In a bullish trend, the main point of interest is the level of the last higher low. While the price is trading above that or on that, the trend remains bullish. A bearish violation of the last higher low level signifies the violation of a current bullish trend. It is called a Change of Character, and it is a very accurate bearish pattern. Take a look at the example on Dollar Index below. In a bullish trend, bearish violation of the last higher low level quite accurately predicted a coming bearish reversal. Change of Character is one of the simplest , yet accurate SMC patterns that you should know. First, learn to properly execute the price action analysis and identify HH, HL, LL, LH and then CHoCH will be your main tool for the identification of the trend reversal. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
7
When Charts Lie: How Fundamentals Rescued My Forex TradingEvery trader knows the frustration: your analysis is technically flawless, but the market moves against you. I learned this brutally in Q1 2024 when my USD/CAD short—backed by textbook bearish divergence and order block rejection—got steamrolled by a 190-pip rally after Canada’s surprise oil export announcement. The Blind Spot in Pure Technicals Price action traders often dismiss fundamentals as "noise," but three scenarios consistently break chart-based systems: Policy Surprises (SNB removing EUR/CHF floor) Geopolitical Shocks (Rubles during Ukraine invasion) Structural Shifts (BOJ abandoning YCC) These events share one trait: they change the market’s fundamental DNA, invalidating historical patterns. A Practical Filter I need to train myself to do something like this: To overlay two fundamental checks before technical entries: Central Bank Calendar No trades 12 hours before scheduled meetings Monitor yield spreads (10YR US vs. DE) Commodity Links AUD/USD: Iron ore inventories USD/CAD: WTI backwardation Case Study: April 2024 GBP/USD Technicals suggested continuation above 1.2700 Fundamental red flag: UK real wages shrinking Outcome: False breakout, 140-pip drop Your Turn Try this today: On your next trade, ask: Is there scheduled event risk? Does this align with rate expectations? Are commodities/equities confirming? The goal isn’t perfection—it’s avoiding obvious mismatches. For me, I read my own words on what should be done, and most probably, I won't do it. I think the above is too much. I believe there must be an easier way to merge Technical and Fundamental Analysis.
Education
by TheInvestor_Diary
SMC Mechanical Entry Models✅ SMC Checklist: 1. Market Structure 🔹 Identify HTF Trend (H4 or H1): bullish, bearish, or range 🔹 Confirm Break of Structure (BOS) or Change of Character (CHoCH) on M15–M5 🔹 Look for lower highs/lows (downtrend) or higher highs/lows (uptrend) 2. Liquidity Zones 🔹 Look for equal highs/lows (liquidity pools) 🔹 Asian highs/lows — common targets during London/NY session 🔹 Recent internal range liquidity 🔹 Trendline liquidity — fakeouts often occur here 3. Premium & Discount Zones (PD Arrays) 🔹 Use Fibonacci from recent swing high to low 🔹 Look for entries at Discount (Longs) or Premium (Shorts) pricing 🔹 Ideal entries happen between 0.62–0.79 retracement 4. Supply & Demand Zones 🔹 Find fresh OBs (Order Blocks) that caused a break of structure 🔹 Use last bullish candle before strong drop (for short) or last bearish candle before strong rally (for long) 🔹 Confirm zone isn’t mitigated yet 5. Imbalance / Fair Value Gaps (FVG) 🔹 Identify large imbalanced candles (no wick overlap) 🔹 Ideal entries are inside the FVG aligned with direction 🔹 High probability if FVG is within OB or confluence with structure/liquidity 6. Confluences for Entry 🔹 Entry aligns with liquidity sweep or FVG/OB tap 🔹 Volume spike or rejection wick confirms interest 🔹 RSI divergence or exhaustion = bonus confirmation 🔹 Use M1/M5 for entry trigger after setup is formed on M15–H1 7. Entry Trigger 🔹 CHoCH or BOS on lower timeframe (M1-M5) 🔹 Confirmation with engulfing candle, FVG fill, or break/retest 🔹 SL below/above recent swing or OB boundary 8. TP/Exit Zones 🔹 TP1: After BOS/structure shift + partial 🔹 TP2: Next liquidity level (equal high/low or OB) 🔹 TP3: Opposite OB or major FVG 🔹 Adjust SL to breakeven after reaching TP1 9. Session Timing (Important) 🔹 Asian range → look for liquidity setup 🔹 London Open (3PM–6PM PH))→ manipulative move (liquidity grab) 🔹 NY Open (8PM–11PM PH) → continuation or reversal opportunity 🔹 Avoid high-impact news releases unless breakout 🔹 Use Forex Factory / MyFXBook for news calendar 10. Post-Trade Journaling: 🔹Screenshot HTF → LTF Setup (H4 > M15 > M1) 🔹Don’t skip journaling — it’s your #1 improvement tool.
Education
by jeniceinocentes
Middle East peace/war = Bitcoin’s Explosive Price CoilDo you know why every time tensions rise in the Middle East, Bitcoin springs upward like a compressed coil? This market reaction isn’t just a coincidence it’s the result of a mix of psychological and economic factors we’ll explore today. Get ready to understand how these crises can create golden opportunities for the world’s favorite digital currency. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: Price is approaching a significant support level that has held strong historically. A potential rebound from this zone could lead to at least a 7% upside move 📈, with the primary target set around $115,000—near a key descending trendline on the daily chart. Watching this level closely for confirmation 🔍. Now , let's dive into the educational section, Market Psychology: When War Plays with Fear and Greed 🧠 Middle East crises act like a spring: when released, they trigger intense fear in the market. Many traders react emotionally and start selling their holdings. The key point: this fear often flips into greed. When Bitcoin’s price drops due to war fears, savvy traders seize the opportunity and enter the market. This cycle of fear and greed causes Bitcoin’s price to surge faster than usual just like a compressed spring suddenly releasing. If you understand these market emotions and trade without bias, you can maximize gains from such volatility. Key TradingView Tools for Bitcoin Analysis 📊 When the Middle East conflict heats up, market volatility spikes, affecting Bitcoin as a high-risk asset. Using essential indicators like RSI , Fibonacci retracements , and volume on TradingView helps you pinpoint precise entry and exit points and better understand market reactions. Practical Tips for Better Tool Usage ⚙️ To get the most out of TradingView: Activate several indicators simultaneously and compare price movements with volume. Draw Fibonacci retracements on previous trends to find key support and resistance levels. Check RSI to see if Bitcoin is overbought or oversold. Monitor trading volume to confirm momentum shifts. This approach turns your analysis from guesswork into a logical, actionable strategy. How Middle East War Drives Bitcoin Growth: Final Analysis 🚀 As tensions escalate, investors seek safe-haven assets, and Bitcoin, known as digital gold, attracts massive attention. Also, banking restrictions and sanctions push liquidity toward cryptocurrencies. These condition s, combined with market psychology and the analytical tools we covered, make Bitcoin behave like a compressed spring that suddenly leaps upward, driving significant growth. Traders aware of these trends and skilled in using indicators and sentiment can find better profit opportunities. Recommendations 📌 Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East act as a powerful trigger for Bitcoin volatility. Understanding market psychology, smart use of TradingView tools, and having a solid risk management strategy are key to success in such times. I recommend keeping an eye not just on technical analysis but also on market sentiment and political news to make the best timely decisions. ✨ Need a little love! We put so much love and time into bringing you useful content & your support truly keeps us going. don’t be shy—drop a comment below. We’d love to hear from you! 💛 Big thanks, Mad Whale 🐋 📜 Please remember to do your own research before making any investment decisions. Also, don’t forget to check the disclaimer at the bottom of each post for more details.
Education
by MadWhale
8
How to Trade When Buy/Sell Alerts Conflict with Market StructureQuestion: If we have a buy/sell alert and an opposing Market Structure, how can we tell which will prevail or is heavier? Answer (VX Algo System perspective): In the VX Algo system, both the alert signals (buy/sell) and the market structure are crucial, but they serve different roles: Alerts are dynamic triggers based on price action, momentum, or specific algorithmic conditions. They indicate potential entry or exit points. Market Structure reflects the broader trend and underlying order flow, indicating the prevailing direction of the market (e.g., higher highs and higher lows for bullish structure, or lower highs and lower lows for bearish structure). When an alert contradicts the prevailing market structure, the heavier factor is usually the Market Structure because it represents the dominant order flow and sentiment. In other words, alerts give you tactical timing, but market structure provides strategic context. How to tell which prevails: Confirm with Market Structure: If the market structure is bullish (uptrend), a buy alert aligns with it and is more likely to succeed. A sell alert against that structure is a warning sign that the alert may be weaker or a potential false signal. Volume and Momentum: Use volume or momentum indicators (built into VX Algo or complementary tools) to see if the alert has strength behind it. A strong sell alert with high volume during an uptrend may indicate an imminent structure shift. Multiple Timeframe Analysis: Check if the opposing alert is supported or rejected on higher timeframes. A buy alert on a lower timeframe against a bearish higher timeframe structure is less likely to prevail. Risk Management: If you trade against structure alerts, reduce position size and tighten stops until the structure confirms the shift. Summary: Market structure is heavier and more reliable for directional bias. Alerts provide tactical entry timing. When they conflict, lean on structure for bias but watch for alert strength as early signals of possible structure changes.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by WallSt007
Sharing the advanced Bollinger Bands strategyHere are the Bollinger Band trading tips: * 📌 If you break above the upper band and then drop back down through it, confirm a short signal! 📌 If you drop below the lower band and then move back up through it, confirm a long signal! 📌 If you continue to drop below the middle band, add to your short position; if you break above the middle band, add to your long position! Pretty straightforward, right? This means you won’t be waiting for the middle band to signal before acting; you’ll be ahead of the game, capturing market turning points！ Let’s break it down with some examples: 1. When Bitcoin breaks above the upper Bollinger Band, it looks strong, but quickly drops back below: ➡️ That’s a “bull trap”—time to go short! 2. If Bitcoin crashes below the lower band and then pops back up: ➡️ Bears are running out of steam—time to go long and grab that rebound! 3. If the price keeps moving above the middle band: ➡️ Add to your long or short positions to ride the trend without being greedy or hesitant. Why is this method powerful? It combines “edge recognition + trend confirmation” for double protection: 1. Edge Recognition—spot the turning point and act early. 2. Trend Confirmation—wait for the middle band breakout and then confidently add positions! You won’t be reacting after the fact; you’ll be ahead of the curve, increasing your positions in the trend’s middle and locking in profits at the end. This is the rhythm of professional traders and the core logic of systematic profits! Who is this method for? - You want precise entry and exit points. - You’re tired of “chasing highs and cutting losses.” - You want a clear, executable trading system. - You want to go from “I see the chart but don’t act” to “I see the signal and take action.” Follow for more. Make sure to like this if you found it useful.
Education
by SolanaMemeCoins
#AN011: NATO Summit, 5% for Defense Hello, I am Forex Trader Andrea Russo and after the NATO Summit meeting, I want to analyze the situation a bit. Remember that my opinions are strictly personal and what I say may not reflect your thoughts. I do not write with a political or personal ideology. I analyze the situation objectively. I thank in advance our Official Partner Broker PEPPERSTONE for the support in creating this article. 🔍 Key points of the NATO Summit Yesterday's NATO Summit in The Hague attracted global attention, with the 32 member countries committing to a strong increase in defense spending, with the goal of 5% of GDP by 2035, of which 3.5% for basic military spending and 1.5% for broader security measures, such as strengthening cybersecurity and infrastructure. US President Trump praised the outcome as a "major victory" and stressed that increased spending would likely benefit US defense contractors, while reaffirming NATO's commitment to Article 5. However, countries such as Spain have expressed concern, indicating that it could include military aid rather than pure budget increases. 📈 Financial Market Reaction 🔹 Defense & Aerospace Stocks Major defense companies across Europe posted immediate gains: Babcock (UK) +10.7%, Rheinmetall (Germany) +3.1%, Thales (France) +2%+, Leonardo (Italy) +2.6% 🔹 Bond & Currency Action According to KBC Bank market commentary: The bond market steepened bearishly, particularly in Europe, as governments are reassessing their fiscal balances to accommodate defense budgets. The US dollar remained strong, supported by dovish Fed expectations, countering the spike in bond yields. 🌍 Currency Market Implications EUR/USD: The momentum of a dovish Fed and US fiscal pressure could support the dollar. However, divergence in bond yields could support moderate euro strength if the ECB remains cautious. EUR-linked currencies (e.g. SEK, NOK): These could come under pressure from rising risk premia and possible increase in government bond issuance. JPY and CHF: Likely to benefit from high volatility and safe-haven flows amid geopolitical tensions. 🧭 Strategic Outlook Theme Market Impact Increased defense spending Supports government bonds, increases government bond yields. Fiscal tightening Increases credit risk premia. US defense dominance Strengthens the USD in the short to medium term. Geopolitical unity Strengthens investor confidence, mitigates risk-off tendencies. 📝 Conclusion NATO summit signals a geopolitical shift that extends to currency and credit markets. Forex traders should pay attention to: Yield changes in the US versus Europe due to increased deficit financing. Currency inflows into the US dollar on defense and risk themes. Safe-haven demand if tensions in Russia-Ukraine or the Middle East flare up again. Thanks a lot for making it this far. Stay tuned for more analysis.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Utilising ICT’s Breaker BlocksBreaker blocks or simply called breakers are failed order blocks which are being retested same way with the break and retest entry pattern. However I simply don’t trade this pattern whenever it presents itself on the charts. There are certain conditions that has to be met before I seek to enter. 1. Firstly, prior to the order block(turned break block) being failed I need to see a grab of liquidity(either buy side or sell side liquidity depending on our directional bias which is the draw on liquidity). 2. After the grab of liquidity I expect to see a clean failure of the order block. Price has to push through the order block with momentum. 3. I expect to find a fair-value-gap as a result of that clean break within that failed order block (turned breaker block). 4. With these 3 factors in place I would not consider to enter if this setup does not occur at key levels. Which could be at the liquidation of an old higher timeframe swing low or high, higher timeframe fair-value-gap or inverted fair-value-gap, or a higher timeframe order block. This is to help understand market structure and direction. 5. Lastly, the above 4 factors needs to align with the I.C.T kill zones. I preferably prefer the London morning session 2am to 5am New York time. Having these factors in complete alignment, my target is usually at the 50% mark of the Fibonacci or a key internal level (internal liquidity for example swing high/low, fair-value-gap etc) close to the 50% mark. The chart picture above is an example of the breaker block entry model on EurAud during the London morning session.
Education
by ChiziFx
Skeptic | RSI Masterclass: Unlock Pro-Level Trading Secrets!Hey traders, it’s Skeptic ! 😎 Ready to transform your trading? 95% of you are using the Relative Strength Index wrong , and I’m here to fix that with a game-changing strategy I’ve backtested across 200+ trades. This isn’t a generic RSI tutorial—it’s packed with real-world setups, myth-busting insights, and precise rules to trade with confidence. Join me to master the art of RSI and trade with clarity, discipline, and reason. Big shoutout to TradingView for this epic free tool! 🙌 Let’s dive in! 🚖 What Is RSI? The Core Breakdown The Relative Strength Index (RSI) , crafted by Welles Wilder, is a momentum oscillator that measures a market’s strength by comparing average gains to average losses over a set period. Here’s the formula: G = average gains over n periods, L = average losses. Relative Strength (RS) = | G / L |. RSI = 100 - (100 / (1 + RS)). Wilder used a 14-period lookback , and I stick with it—it’s smooth, filters noise, and gives a crystal-clear read on buyer or seller momentum. Let’s get to the good stuff—how I use RSI to stack profits! 📊 My RSI Strategy: Flipping the Script Forget what you’ve read in books like The Handbook of Technical Analysis by Mark Andrew Lim— overbought (70) and oversold (30) aren’t just for shorting or buying. I go long when RSI hits overbought, and it’s been a goldmine. I’ve backtested over 200 trades with this approach, and it’s my go-to confirmation for daily setups. Why does it work? When RSI hits overbought on my 15-minute entry chart, it signals explosive buyer momentum. Here’s what you get: Lightning-Fast R/R: I hit risk/reward targets in 30 minutes to 2 hours on 15-minute entries (longer for 1-hour entries, depending on your timeframe). Massive R/R Potential: An overbought RSI on 15-minute can push 1-hour and 4-hour RSI into overbought, driving bigger moves. I hold for R/Rs of 5 or even 10, not bailing early. 🚀 Rock-Solid Confirmation: RSI confirms my entry trigger. Take BTC/USD: BTC bounces off a key support at 76,000, sparking an uptrend. It forms a 4-hour box range, but price tests the ceiling more than the floor, hinting at a breakout. Trigger: Break above the box ceiling at 85,853.57. On 15-minute, a powerful candle breaks the ceiling, and RSI hits overbought—that’s my green light. I open a long. Soon, 1-hour and 4-hour RSI go overbought, signaling stronger momentum. I hold, and BTC pumps hard, hitting high R/R in a short window. This keeps trades fast and efficient—quick wins or quick stops mean better capital management and less stress. Slow trades? They’re a mental grind, pushing you to close early for tiny R/Rs. 😴 Pro Rules for RSI Success Here’s how to wield RSI like a trading weapon: Stick to the Trend : Use RSI in the direction of the main trend (e.g., uptrend = focus on longs). Confirmation Only: Never use RSI solo for buy/sell signals. Pair it with breakouts or support/resistance triggers. Fresh Momentum: RSI is strongest when it just hits overbought/oversold. If the move’s already rolling, skip it—no FOMO, walk away! Customize Zones: Overbought (70) and oversold (30) can shift—it might show reactions at 65 or 75. Adjust to your market’s behavior. Backtesting RSI: Your Path to Mastery To make RSI yours, backtest it across at least 30 trades in every market cycle— uptrend, downtrend, and range. Test in volatile markets for extra edge. 😏 Key takeaways: Range Markets Kill RSI: Momentum oscillators like RSI (or SMA) are useless in ranges—no momentum, no signal. Switch to ROC (Rate of Change) for ranges—I use it, and it’s a beast. Want an ROC guide? Hit the comments! Overextended RSI Zones: On your entry timeframe (e.g., 15-minute), check higher timeframes (e.g., 4-hour) for past RSI highs/lows. These are overextended zones—price often rejects or triggers a range. Use them to take profits. Final Vibe Check This RSI masterclass is your key to trading like a pro—fast R/Rs, big wins, and unshakable confidence . At Skeptic Lab, we live by No FOMO, no hype, just reason. Guard your capital— max 1% risk per trade, no excuses. Want an ROC masterclass or more tools? Drop a comment! If this fired you up, smash that boost—it means everything! 😊 Got a setup or question? Hit me in the comments. Stay sharp, fam! ✌️
Education
by SkepticWise
1
Is every fall an opportunity?Is every fall an opportunity? Of course not! Because sometimes, the lower you get, the lower you get. You need to know 2 things here: 1- Why did we buy? 2- How long is our maturity? ➡️ Example: I believe that Bitcoin CRYPTOCAP:BTC will continuously increase in value in the long run. Because I know why I bought it. It's simple math (fixed in my article profile). But is there no risk? Of course, there is risk. ❌ For example, if the US bans it? This is unlikely today, but of course it can happen. As a matter of fact, the US banned gold investment between 1933-1974. Such a thing would not end Bitcoin, but it would make the road very long. ✅ So? 1- If you believe that what you are buying will appreciate in the long run and you have a long maturity, declines are opportunities. 2- But if you've only heard about your investment from someone, then you're more likely to get scared and sell at every drop. Thanks for reading 🙏
INDEX:BTCUSDEducation
by celilADIGUZEL
1