Stock Market Logic Series #11If you are not adding the pre-and-after-hours of trading on your chart, you don't actually see the full picture of your trading analysis.
A lot of times, the market makers will push the price on the pre/after-hours times on a light volume, and will define the true low or high of the day, where you could have gotten inside with a much better price and stop placement, so when the trading hours starts, you don't feel lost that you don't have a close risk point to put your stop at.
Also, in those outside-hours, you can clearly see a much more sensible picture where the trendlines are much more clear and it is clear what the price is doing.
Also, I don't even talk about when EARNINGS are happening... and there is a high chance for gap to happen in one direction or the other.
After a gap happens, if you only look on the trading hours, you have only the information of the first 5 min of the day so you have some estimation of what could be the high or low of the day, but looking at the pre-market you could see what are the possible true high or low of the day, which is completely different.
Also, after a gap happens, your indicators are "wrong", since they miss information.
As you go into a higher frame this becomes less important, but still... some crazy huge moves start in the pre/after-hours and the price just never comes back, it just flies to the moon. So why not position yourself at a better price with better stop placement?
The logic behind it, is that if BIG money wants a stock badly... he will buy it whenever it is possible and available before the other BIG money will snatch it from it...
Look how clear price action looks in this chart:
Community ideas
Dow Jones Trend Day Setup 5* OpportunitiesMy goal going forward into 2025 is to only trade the Parabolic Trend trades and to master them. They happen roughly 5-8 times per month. Just catching 1 of these per month is all I need. Using 3% risk per one of these setups can deliver 15-20% gains.
The universal entry criteria is the 5 minute close back inside the 20sma.
The timeframe for entries are either 1 hour before the open, the open, and 1 hour after the open.
Profit targets are generally until the close or a range expansion target of 1-2 times the Asia/London box.
Below are multiple charts of the same setup with the green box being the ideal entry.
If I can only trade 1 trade PER MONTH, this is what I will focus on.
Fed Rate Expectations: How Are They Formed?Changes in the Federal Reserve's funds rate have far-reaching implications for nearly all existing assets. When the rate increases amidst moderate inflation, the U.S. dollar TVC:DXY typically strengthens, attracting capital from both the cryptocurrency and stock markets. Conversely, if inflation is rising rapidly and the Fed is compelled to aggressively raise rates to stabilize the economy, investors often interpret this as a sign of underlying trouble, prompting them to shift their assets into TVC:GOLD . However, it is essential to recognize that the Fed’s decisions are reactions to prevailing economic conditions. More crucially, market expectations regarding the Fed's rate movements—shaped by collective sentiment—play a significant role in shaping economic outcomes. This post explores the factors that form these expectations.
📍 Key Indicators Influencing Expectations for the Fed Funds Rate
The market tends to respond significantly only when actual changes in the funds rate diverge from expectations. If adjustments align with market forecasts, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar typically remains stable. Thus, accurately predicting the Fed's actions is vital for investors and traders.
1. Labor Market Dynamics
The labor market is a primary focus for the Fed. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases employment reports every Friday, providing insight into unemployment rates. The Fed maintains a forecast range for acceptable unemployment levels—generally between 4.2% and 4.8%—indicating economic balance. An uptick in unemployment signals economic weakness, often prompting a reduction in the funds rate. Conversely, a decline in unemployment raises concerns about potential economic overheating, which could lead to tighter monetary policy.
2. Inflation Trends
The Fed’s target inflation rate is set at 2%. As inflation rises, the Fed typically increases the funds rate to curb borrowing. This was clearly illustrated during the 2022-2023 period, where persistent inflation above 8% led to a series of rate hikes. In contrast, deflation would necessitate maintaining ultra-low funds rates. Additional indicators to monitor include wage trends, inflation expectations, and the consumer price index (CPI).
3. Overall Economic Health
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is a key indicator of economic health. Although GDP data is often retrospective, it reflects long-term economic trends. A decline in GDP may prompt the Fed to adopt stimulative monetary policies. Analysts often utilize the GDPNow model, developed by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, to obtain real-time estimates of U.S. GDP growth.
4. Treasury Yield Curve
The yield curve illustrates the relationship between bond yields of different maturities from the same issuer. A flattening yield curve typically signals economic slowdown, while long-term bonds yielding less than short-term bonds can foreshadow a recession. The Fed could respond to such signs by adjusting funds rates higher depending on the crisis’s underlying causes.
5. Global Economic Influences
Economic conditions in other major economies, particularly China and the European Union, can indirectly impact the U.S. economy due to deep economic ties. Monitoring central bank funds rates and the Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) in these regions is essential.
6. The Dollar’s Exchange Rate Against Key Currencies
A strong U.S. dollar can adversely affect American exporters. If other central banks, such as the Bank of Japan or the European Central Bank, adopt accommodative monetary policies, the Fed may also consider lowering rates to avoid a detrimental trade balance caused by a strengthening dollar.
7. Market Expectations
Investor sentiment creates a feedback loop. With over 50% of Americans investing in equities, a hawkish stance on funds rates tends to increase bond yields and instigate a sell-off in securities, negatively impacting overall economic wealth. Investors’ anticipation of potential rate cuts can pressure the Fed to align with these expectations.
8. Communication from Fed Officials
The rhetoric from Fed officials often hints at future monetary policy, providing insights into rate expectations based on their communications. Numerous indicators, including analysts’ forecasts and futures trading on key rates, contribute to understanding the Fed's policies. Due to the complexity of these influencing factors, relying solely on fundamental analysis for trading is not advisable for beginners.
📍 Conclusion
Forecasting changes in the Fed's funds rate often begins with the first clear signals about the Fed's potential actions. The primary motivations guiding the Fed are the control of inflation and the management of unemployment—making these two indicators crucial for predictions regarding monetary policy. Additionally, it is essential to consider fundamental factors impacting other major currencies.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
The Two Archetypes of TradersIn the trading world, markets move in cycles, and bearish conditions are no exception. Here's an educational breakdown of how traders can navigate these challenging times:
1. The Long-Term Holders (Investors)
Mindset: Patience is their superpower.
Goal: Accumulate assets during bearish trends by buying at key support levels and holding for future gains.
Approach: Use the WiseOwl Indicator to identify areas of strong support and potential accumulation zones for strategic entries.
2. The Intraday Traders (Short-Term)
Mindset: Adaptability and precision are crucial.
Goal: Profit from short-term price movements, capitalizing on market volatility.
Approach: Utilize the WiseOwl Indicator to pinpoint bearish momentum for short entries and clear exit levels, ensuring optimal risk management.
Educational Example: WiseOwl Strategy in Action
Let’s analyze Solana (SOL) on the 15-minute timeframe during a bearish market:
Trend Identification: The WiseOwl Indicator highlights a confirmed downtrend with clear bearish signals.
Entry Points: Short trade signals are generated at moments of significant bearish momentum.
Risk Management: Stop loss and take profit levels, calculated using ATR-based logic, ensure disciplined trading.
Takeaways for Traders
📉 Bearish Markets:
Holders focus on identifying value areas for accumulation.
Intraday traders capitalize on market volatility with precise entries and exits.
Happy trading! 🚀
#WiseOwlIndicator #TradingEducation #BearMarket #SOLAnalysis #CryptoTrading
The Relative Strength Index (RSI): A Beginner’s GuideThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is one of the most widely used technical indicators in trading. Developed by J. Welles Wilder in 1978, it helps traders evaluate the momentum of a market and identify overbought or oversold conditions.
What is RSI?
RSI is an oscillator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes over a specific period, typically 14 periods. It provides a value between 0 and 100, which helps traders gauge whether an asset is overbought or oversold.
Overbought: RSI above 70 suggests the asset might be overbought and due for a correction.
Oversold: RSI below 30 indicates the asset might be oversold and due for a rebound.
The RSI Formula
The RSI is calculated as:
Where:
RS= Average Gain of Up Periods (over the lookback period) / Average Loss of Down Periods (over the lookback period)
How to Interpret RSI
1. Overbought and Oversold Levels:
- When RSI crosses above 70, it may signal that the asset is overbought and could experience a price decline.
- When RSI drops below 30, it may indicate that the asset is oversold and could see a price increase.
2. Divergence:
- Bullish Divergence: When the price makes lower lows, but RSI makes higher lows, it suggests a potential upward reversal.
- Bearish Divergence: When the price makes higher highs, but RSI makes lower highs, it indicates a potential downward reversal.
3. Centerline Crossover:
- RSI crossing above 50 is often viewed as a bullish signal, indicating upward momentum.
- RSI crossing below 50 suggests bearish momentum.
Strengths of RSI
- Versatility: Works well in a variety of markets (stocks, forex, crypto, etc.) and timeframes.
- Simplicity: Easy to interpret for beginners.
- Divergences: Offers insight into potential trend reversals.
Limitations of RSI
- False Signals**: RSI can provide false overbought/oversold signals in strong trending markets.
- Lagging Indicator: Like most indicators, RSI relies on historical data, which may delay signals.
Best Practices for Using RSI
1. Combine with Other Indicators:
- Use RSI with trend-following indicators like Moving Averages or MACD to filter out false signals.
- Pair it with support and resistance levels to validate potential reversals.
2. Adjust the Period:
- Shorten the period (e.g., 7 or 9) for more sensitive signals.
- Lengthen the period (e.g., 20 or 30) for smoother, less frequent signals.
3. Context Matters:
- In a trending market, RSI may remain overbought or oversold for extended periods. Use it cautiously in such conditions.
Example of RSI in Action
Imagine a cryptocurrency like Bitcoin has been rallying for several days, and the RSI rises above 70. This suggests that Bitcoin might be overbought, and a pullback could occur soon. However, if the market trend is strong, Bitcoin’s RSI could stay above 70 for an extended period. Combining RSI with trend analysis or support/resistance levels can provide better insights.
Conclusion
The RSI is a powerful tool for traders seeking to understand market momentum and potential reversal points. While it’s simple to use, its effectiveness increases when combined with other indicators and market context. As always, practice using RSI on historical data before applying it to live trades, and remember that no single indicator guarantees success
Trading Journal - Best trading book written by youIn the world of trading, success isn't just about skill or knowledge. It also depends on discipline, consistency, and always getting better. Journaling is a powerful tool for achieving these goals. Many traders find that keeping a detailed record of their trades and thoughts can greatly improve their performance and personal growth.
Understanding Journaling in Trading
Journaling in trading means recording your trading activities in a detailed way. This includes logging trades, strategies, emotions, market conditions, outcomes, but also annotating the charts and taking notes about the trades we didn't catch but we wanted to. Because journaling such trades is a next stet to catching them next time. It's not just about writing down numbers; it's about documenting the thought process and decision-making behind each trade.
Your journal should not be a general , but adjusted to your strategy.
A good trading journal typically includes data:
Trade Details: Instrument, Timeframes, Key levels, Screenshot with entry and exits, Entry model
Reasoning: Why did you enter the trade, including technical
Emotional State: Your feelings during the trade—nervousness, confidence, greed, or fear.
Outcome: Profit or loss, and how it compares to your expectations.
Reflection: Lessons learned and adjustments needed for future trades.
Why Journaling Is Crucial in Trading
1. Accountability
Journaling makes traders accountable for their actions. It forces you to document and analyze every decision. This transparency ensures you can't ignore losses or poor choices as bad luck. Instead, you must confront and learn from them. When Journaling I always start with adding the analysis into my journal, whether it will turn into a trade or not. I always analyze if it would work and for what reasons it worked or not. This keeps me imporving my self. Trust me once you start to do this consistently. Your trading will change in a good way.
Analysis in the Journal
2. Identifying Patterns and Habits
Trading often involves repetitive patterns, both in the markets and in traders’ behaviour. By keeping a journal, you can spot recurring mistakes or habits. Recognizing these patterns is the first step toward breaking negative cycles and reinforcing positive behaviours. You will find these patterns by taking notes. And writing down your explorations.
Trading Notes
3. Improving your Trading Plan
When you start documenting your analysis and reasoning for entries based on your trading model, you will start to see what works best, it will help you to focus on this and avoid what wos not working for you. This can be revisited to refine decision-making processes. For example, a journal can show that certain strategies consistently yield positive results, encouraging you to focus on what works and based on that you can be improving your trading plan.
Trading Plan
4. Emotional Regulation
Emotions like fear, greed, and frustration can cloud judgment and lead to impulsive decisions. Journaling helps traders track their emotional states and understand how these emotions impact their performance. Over time, this awareness fosters emotional discipline, which is key to maintaining consistency.
5. Measuring Progress
A trading journal serves as a tangible record of growth. By reviewing past entries, traders can see how far they’ve come, what they’ve learned, and how their strategies have evolved. This sense of progress boosts confidence and motivation.
Conclusion
Journaling in trading is more than a tool; it's a habit that can change how you trade. It helps you be accountable, disciplined, and self-aware. A trading journal is like a mirror and a map, showing you where you are and guiding you to get better. In trading, where consistency and growth matter, keeping a journal can be what sets you apart.
Whether you're new or experienced, starting a journal can help you grow. You'll learn a lot and improve your trading skills. Start today, and let your journal help you succeed.
Remember if you are not journaling, you are not improving and you will repeat the same mistakes over and over.
Hope this inspires you to start journaling.
Dave FX Hunter
The Ultimate Day Trading Framework: Rules for Consistent SuccessThese are general trading rules that serve as a foundation for your strategy. You must work on them further to develop a precise plan tailored to your preferences, the markets you trade, your time zone, and other related variables. The goal is to create a clear, actionable framework that you can follow consistently every single trading day. 🔍📈📊
General Trading Rules
Categorize Observations into Binary Decisions
Simplify decisions into two options (e.g., Risk On vs. Risk Off).
Decision determines the trade approach. ⚖️
Follow a Rule-Based System
Rules are essential for processing setups quickly and accurately. 🛠️
Focus on keeping the process simple and systematic.
Market Conditions
Trend vs. Trading Range
Trend:
Look to swing more of your position.
Uptrend: Prioritize buying. 📈
Downtrend: Prioritize selling. 📉
Trading Range:
Buy low and sell high (scalping focus). 💱
Risk Management
Evaluate Risk On vs. Risk Off for each setup. 🚦
Probability Assessment
Categorize setups as High Probability vs. Low Probability. ✅❌
Execution
Stay Agile
Constantly assess market conditions and adapt strategies accordingly. 🔄
Focus on Key Setups
On average, expect about 40 setups per day.
Be selective and only act on setups that meet your criteria. 🎯
By personalizing these rules and following them diligently, you can bring clarity and consistency to your trading process.
How to Trade Christmas and New Year Winter Holidays
As the winter holidays are already around the corner, you should know exactly when to stop trading and close your trades, and when to resume.
In this article, you will learn how Christmas and New Year holidays affect the financial markets and I will share with you my trading schedule.
First, let's discuss how winter holidays influence the markets.
Winter holidays lead to a dramatic reduction in trading volumes.
Many traders and investors take vacations in that period.
Major financial institutions, banks, hedge funds often operate with reduced staffing and early closes or are completely close for holidays.
All these factors inevitably lead to the diminished trading activity.
Look at the schedule of official banking holidays in many countries.
Since Tuesday 24th, the banks are officially closed in Europe, UK, USA and so on.
But why should you care?
If you have free time, why can't you continue trading?
Even if you trade technical analysis, you should admit the fact the fundamentals are the main driver for significant price movements.
One of the major sources of high impact fundamentals is the economic news releases in the economic calendar.
Look at the economic calendar.
You can see that the last day of high impact news releases will be Friday, December 20th.
After that, the calendar is completely empty.
The absence of impactful fundamentals will inevitably make the markets stagnate, making trading very boring.
Above is the EURUSD price chart with ATR technical indicator (the one that measure the market volatility).
We see a clear drop in volatility during a winter holiday season.
You can behold a similar pattern on Gold chart.
With the big politicians taking vacations during the holidays season,
we tend to see the local easing of geological tensions accompanied by a lack of significant foreign and domestic policy actions and announcements.
That's the US congressional calendar.
There are no sessions since December 23rd.
But there is one more reason why you should not trade during winter holidays.
The absence of big players on the market will decrease the overall trading volumes - the liquidity.
Lower liquidity will unavoidably increase the bid/ask spreads.
The widened spreads will make trading more costly, especially if you are scalping or day trading.
And when should you resume trading?
It always depends on how actively the markets wake up after holidays.
The minimal starting day will be January 6th.
I usually do not trade this week and just watch how the markets starts moving.
I prefer to begin my trading year from Monday next week, the January 13th.
Holidays seasons will be the best period for you to do the back testing and learning.
Pick a trading strategy that you want to trade with in a new year and sacrifice your time to back test it on different instruments.
Learn important theory and various techniques, relax and prepare your self for a new trading season.
Have a great time, traders!
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Using Trendlines on ATR for Trading Strategy:Average True Range:
Volatility Resistance: The ATR oscillating at a resistance line suggests that the market volatility has reached a point where it has been repeatedly unable to break through to higher levels. This can mean that despite attempts, the volatility hasn't sustained at higher levels, potentially indicating a stabilization or a ceiling on how volatile the market might get in the short term.
Market Sentiment: This oscillation can also reflect a market where there's a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers, leading to a stabilization of price movement range. When volatility hits a resistance level, it might indicate that the market is preparing for a significant move or a breakout, or conversely, that it might revert back to lower volatility after some consolidation.
Breakout Strategy:
Signal for Breakout: If the ATR breaks above the resistance line where it has been oscillating, it could signal an upcoming increase in volatility, potentially leading to a significant price movement. Traders might consider this a signal to prepare for a breakout trade, either buying or selling depending on the price trend.
Trade Entry: Following a breakout, traders could use this ATR trendline break as a cue to enter a trade in the direction of the breakout, expecting that increased volatility will lead to a more substantial price move.
Stop Loss and Profit Taking:
Stop Loss: The resistance line where ATR oscillates can be used to set dynamic stop losses. If the ATR moves above this line, indicating higher volatility, a trader might adjust their stop loss to be a multiple of the ATR away from the current price to account for the increased risk.
Profit Targets: Similarly, profit targets can be set based on ATR levels. For instance, if the ATR is oscillating near resistance, traders might aim for a profit target that's one or two ATRs away from the entry point, anticipating where volatility might push the price.
Trend Confirmation:
Confirming Trends: ATR's behavior at resistance can confirm trends. If the price is trending upward but the ATR fails to move above its resistance, it might indicate that the trend lacks strong momentum or that a reversal could be on the horizon.
Risk Management:
Adjusting Position Size: High ATR levels near resistance could suggest increasing market noise, prompting traders to reduce position sizes or adjust their risk management strategies to account for potential whipsaws or false breakouts.
Counter-Trend Strategy:
Reversal Signals: If the ATR repeatedly fails to break through resistance, it might signal that the market is overstretched, potentially leading to a decrease in volatility or even a trend reversal. Traders could look for bearish signals if this happens in an uptrend or bullish if in a downtrend.
Incorporating these strategies requires careful observation and should ideally be combined with other forms of technical analysis or indicators for confirmation. Remember, while ATR provides insights into volatility, it does not indicate the direction of price movement, so it should be part of a broader trading strategy.
Most traders on social media are liarsInvesting can be one of the most powerful ways to build wealth.
But let’s face it—most investments come with a ton of headaches.
Running a business? Long hours, high risks, and endless stress.
Real estate? It’s capital-intensive, requires constant management, and tenants can be a nightmare.
That’s why, for many people, simply investing in the S&P 500 ( SP:SPX ) or CRYPTOCAP:BTC can be a better choice.
Over the long term, the SP:SPX has delivered average annual returns of about 8–10%, with minimal effort (even more than that in 2024).
No tenants.
No employees.
No need to monitor charts or markets daily.
Just consistent, compounding growth over time.
Now, here’s where it gets interesting.
Trading —when done right—has the potential to outperform SPX investing.
While the SPX provides solid, steady returns, traders who master their craft can potentially achieve far higher percentages.
But—and this is a huge “but”—most people who try trading fail miserably.
And part of the reason is simple: the trading world is full of lies, scams, and fake promises.
In this article, I’ll break down exactly why most traders are liars and why the only person you should trust in this game is yourself.
If you’re considering trading or looking to spot the frauds, this is for you.
Social media is flooded with “gurus” flaunting perfect results and luxury lifestyles.
But here’s the hard truth: most of them are lying to you.
If you’re not careful, you’ll fall for their tricks, waste your money, and damage your confidence.
Let’s break it down so you understand exactly how these so-called traders operate.
Only Winning Trades? Think Again
Scroll through Instagram or YouTube.
All you see are screenshots of winning trades.
Huge profits like “+200% in a day” or “$5,000 profit this morning while drinking coffee.”
But ask yourself: why do you never see their losing trades?
The reality is, every trader loses—yes, even the best in the world.
There’s no such thing as a 100% win rate in trading.
What these people do is simple:
They take a ton of trades, show you only the winning ones, and bury the losses.
It’s called cherry-picking, and it’s incredibly deceptive.
This tactic lets them sell an illusion of success.
And that illusion helps them build their brand and sell you courses, signals, or mentorship.
Don’t fall for the fake perfection.
If they only show wins, they’re hiding something.
Are These Even Real Trades?
Here’s another problem: how do you know they actually took those trades?
Spoiler: you don’t.
Many of these traders don’t actually trade the markets.
Instead, they analyze the chart after the move has already happened.
Then, they post a screenshot and act like they predicted it all along.
Others use demo accounts.
These are practice accounts where you trade fake money.
They can show massive profits on a demo account without risking a single dollar.
The kicker? Most people can’t tell the difference between a real account and a demo.
And then there’s the outright faking.
They use tools like Photoshop to edit screenshots of their trades.
Or they manipulate their accounts to show inflated results.
Trust me, it’s easier to fake than you think.
If someone shows you a perfect trade, ask for proof.
Ask to see the full trading history, not just one cherry-picked example.
Paid to Lie
A lot of these so-called traders aren’t making money from trading at all.
They’re making money from you.
Here’s how:
1. Broker commissions:
Many traders work as affiliates for brokers.
For every new trader they bring in, they earn a percentage of your trading fees.
Their job isn’t to teach you or help you make money.
Their job is to get you trading as much as possible.
2. Crypto shilling:
Crypto projects pay influencers to promote their coins.
These traders post “bullish” analysis to get you to buy.
Once the hype drives the price up, the project dumps their tokens, and you lose money.
Their motivation isn’t your success.
It’s their profit.
If someone’s making money off your trades, question everything they say.
Don’t Believe Their Track Records
“But what about their track record? It looks legit!”
Listen carefully: track records can’t be trusted.
Here’s why:
1. Demo accounts:
Many traders show results from demo accounts, not real money.
There’s zero risk involved, so they can take wild trades and show massive gains.
It’s not real.
2. Photoshop and manipulation:
Even real accounts can be faked with editing tools.
Some traders manipulate their account history to hide losses and exaggerate wins.
3. Past performance means nothing:
Even if the track record is real, it doesn’t guarantee future success.
Markets change, and strategies that worked yesterday might fail tomorrow.
Don’t trust numbers on a screen.
If they can’t show you live, verifiable results, don’t take them seriously.
Trust No One—Not Even Me
Here’s the most important lesson: don’t trust anyone in trading.
Not the “gurus.”
Not their flashy results.
Not their promises of easy success.
And yes, that includes me.
Don’t even trust what I’m saying right now.
Why?
Because the only person who truly cares about your success is you.
I don’t want you to blindly trust me.
I want you to think for yourself.
Learn how to trade on your own.
Build your own strategies, develop your own edge, and question everything.
If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.
The only person you can fully trust in trading is yourself.
Because only you truly want yourself to get richer.
Final Thoughts
Trading isn’t a shortcut to wealth.
It’s a skill that takes time, effort, and constant learning.
The internet is full of liars, scammers, and people trying to profit off your dreams.
Protect yourself.
Don’t believe the hype.
And most importantly, trust only yourself to guide your trading journey.
Because in the end, your success depends on you—and no one else.
Thank you for reading (I needed to let off some steam ^^)
Daveatt
Rate cuts and their impact on the marketsRate cuts and their impact on the markets
The Fed's decisions to cut interest rates, while seeking to stimulate the economy, have had a mixed effect on financial markets. On the one hand, these measures tend to favor equity assets by reducing funding costs and encouraging investment. On the other hand, in an environment of global uncertainty and expectations of recession, rate cuts have been interpreted by some investors as a sign of economic weakness, which has contributed to the fall in stock market indices.
In this context, investors have migrated towards assets considered safer, such as Treasury bonds, which has generated significant movements in sovereign debt yields. This behavior directly affects traders' strategies during the Quadruple Witching Hour, when position adjustment is usually more intense.
Quadruple Witching Hour amid market declines
With markets facing recent declines, the Quadruple Witching Hour could amplify volatility due to several factors:
1. Massive position adjustments: Investors looking to protect their portfolios or close open positions could generate sharp movements in stock and index prices.
2. Impact on liquidity: In an environment of uncertainty, liquidity could be reduced, making price movements even more pronounced.
3. Impact on specific sectors: Companies that are more sensitive to interest rates, such as technology and real estate, could experience greater pressure due to changing investor expectations.
Outlook and strategies
In this environment, investors should be particularly attentive to:
1. Evolving expectations about monetary policy: Any changes in Fed language or economic data could influence market participants' decisions during the Quadruple Witching Hour.
2. Risk management: Using hedging strategies, such as options or inverse ETFs, can be key to mitigating the impact of volatility.
3. Opportunities in volatility: For more experienced traders, sharp price movements may offer opportunities to generate short-term profits.
In conclusion, the Quadruple Witching Hour in the current environment of Fed rate cuts and market declines represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Careful planning and a clear understanding of the factors at play will be essential to navigate this period successfully.
Ion Jauregui – ActivTrades Analyst
*******************************************************************************************
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication.
All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information.
Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
USD/CAD -Volume Spread AnalysisHere is a perfect example of Pushing Up through Supply.
As shown, when up-trending markets experience the phenomenon created by Market Makers in which supply us introduced to the market. (Notice the Pivot Highs at 1.41942 and 1.41968 which are 4 pips apart) These levels of supply are known by the market makers and are used to lock in bullish traders.
As the market moves against the locked in traders we notice Ultra High Volume (UHV) shows up. As we analyze the volume it suggests professional supply has entered the market and is confirmed by the following Wide Spread and Excessively UHV.
This confirms the intention of the professionals to lock in bullish traders and create an over head supply zone. The following price movement has UHV as well but less than the previous bar and it also closes bullish but inside the larger UHV bar. Peculiar for a market that is doomed to fall to the abyss don't you think? Looking back to the previous 40 price bars we notice price held support above the level of the previous pivot low at 1.40926.
The supply diminishes from this point as price creates a Lower High (LH) then a Higher Low (HL). We also notice the spread bodies of the bars leading to the pivot low at 1.41304 are smaller than any other downward push since the consolidation period on the 10th of December.
This implies supply has diminished until we come back in contact with the supply created by the Market Makers. The UHV suggests supply is present. However, the next bar shows demand is also present and supply has suddenly diminished at the resistance as well.
Prices then proceed to "Push up Through Supply" volume diminishes and prices rise through the supply which is termed and "ease of movement". This is an aggressive BUY SIGNAL which implies prices will not come back to retest the previous area of resistance turned support known as the backup to the edge of the creek.
You have to be aggressive at these moments because prices will not return to the retest the structure as the handling maneuver is completed a as it leaves the re-accumulation area.
Super Simple Buying and Selling Stocks within TradingView.With the market pulling back nearly 14% over the past few days, I decided to take a punt on a potential recovery. I've opened a position in TQQQ , a 3x leveraged ETF tracking the Nasdaq 100 (top 100 tech stocks).
In this post, I show how easy it is to place an order using a connected TradingView broker—in my case, TradeStation—and set up a bracket order with a take-profit and stop-loss.
If the trade moves against me, the stop-loss automatically manages my risk by closing the position. If it moves in my favor, the take-profit ensures I lock in gains and exit automatically.
Of course, these levels can be really easily adjusted manually as the trade progresses, providing flexibility as the stock moves. You could choose to set your levels based on your favorite indicators signals or some other means.
This isn’t trading advice—just an example of how you can leverage TradingView’s functionality.
It’s real money on the line—my money—so wish me luck! That said, the market could still head lower with ongoing Fed FUD, but I’m holding out hope for a little help from Santa. 🎅
Analyzing Market Trends and FED Interest Rate Decisions "SPX"The daily chart above highlights FED interest rate cut decisions with vertical lines. I've used the DJI ticker instead of SPX, as it provides a more comprehensive representation of the overall market, unaffected by the dominance of the Magnificent Seven.
My analysis focuses on monthly candle peaks (indicating overbought conditions) and lows (indicating oversold conditions), as well as direction reversals. This cycle repeats, forming higher highs and higher lows. By identifying these patterns, we can determine the market direction, which is either trending upward (green) or downward (red).
Now we know the direction where the market is heading. Its either trending to form a new higher high OR new higher low.
With that understanding, when we plot vertical lines on FED decision days, the direction has not changed. HOWEVER, the decision is accelerating the market direction to its targeted price(either higher high or higher low).
The above guidance is for swing traders for a duration of about 2/3 weeks. Intraday traders can benefit this by looking at days high and low before decision announcement and knowing where the market is generally headed.
As a trader, I utilize custom-built screener tables that cascade data across multiple timeframes and stocks/sectors. This unique approach provides a fascinating big-picture perspective, highlighting strong stocks and sectors.
Reach out to me OR follow me for further insights.
Happy Trading!!