How to Get Funded and Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025?How to Get Funded and Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025: A Step-by-Step Action Plan
With prop trading firms offering funding to skilled traders, 2025 presents an excellent opportunity to trade with significant capital while limiting your personal risk. Here’s a detailed roadmap to getting funded and becoming a successful prop trader in the forex market.
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📌 Step 1: Build a Profitable Trading Strategy
Before applying to a prop firm, you need a tested and profitable strategy that aligns with prop firm risk rules. Here’s what to focus on:
✅ Choose a Trading Style
• Scalping – Quick, small trades (requires low spreads and fast execution).
• Day Trading – Intraday trades with clear setups (most prop firms allow).
• Swing Trading – Holding trades for days/weeks (lower stress, fits many prop firm rules).
• Algorithmic Trading – Using bots or EAs (some firms allow automation).
✅ Develop a High-Probability Edge
• Top-Down Technical Analysis (Identify trends using multiple timeframes).
• Price Action & Market Structure (Support/resistance, breakouts, trendlines).
• Risk-Reward Ratios (Aim for at least 1:2 RR on trades).
• News & Fundamentals (FOMC, NFP, CPI, interest rate decisions).
✅ Backtest & Optimize Your Strategy
• Use Forex Tester 5 or TradingView’s replay mode to test past market conditions.
• Run at least 100-200 trades in a demo account.
• Maintain a win rate above 50% with an R:R of 1:2 or higher.
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📌 Step 2: Master Risk & Money Management
Most prop firms fail traders due to poor risk management. Here’s how to avoid that:
✅ Follow Strict Drawdown Rules
• Daily Drawdown: Most firms allow 5% max daily loss.
• Overall Drawdown: 8-10% max loss before account termination.
• Solution: Risk only 0.5% - 1% per trade.
✅ Position Sizing
• Lot Size Calculator: Always use a calculator to match risk per trade.
• Adjust for Volatility: Trade smaller lots on high-impact news days.
✅ Risk-Adjusted Growth
• Withdraw profits monthly to secure earnings.
• Scale up gradually instead of over-leveraging.
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📌 Step 3: Get Funded by a Prop Firm
🚀 Top Prop Firms in 2025 for Forex Traders
• FTMO – Up to $400,000 funding, 90% profit share.
• My Forex Funds (MFF) – Up to $600,000 funding, 85% profit split.
• The Funded Trader – 80-90% profit split, offers aggressive scaling.
• Fidelcrest – Allows scalping, news trading, and EAs.
• E8 Funding – Low drawdown rules, 80% split.
📈 How to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge
Most firms require a two-phase evaluation:
1. Phase 1: Profit target (8-10%) within 30 days without exceeding the daily/overall drawdown.
2. Phase 2: Lower profit target (4-5%) within 60 days with the same risk rules.
3. Funded Stage: Trade firm capital with a profit split (usually 75-90% to the trader).
🛠️ Pro Tips to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge
✅ Risk only 0.5% per trade (low risk = higher success rate).
✅ Trade high-probability setups only (2-3 trades per day max).
✅ Avoid trading the first & last 15 minutes of sessions (high spreads).
✅ Use a prop firm challenge simulator before applying.
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📌 Step 4: Optimize & Scale Your Trading Career
🔹 Get Multiple Funded Accounts
• Many firms allow traders to manage multiple accounts.
• Use copy trading software (e.g., Trade Copier, FXBlue) to replicate trades across accounts.
• Some firms have a combined max funding of over $2 million.
🔹 Transition to a Full-Time Forex Trader
1. Withdraw Profits Monthly – Secure earnings and reinvest.
2. Diversify Income Streams – Consider trading signals, coaching, or selling EAs.
3. Trade with Institutional Mindset – Focus on consistency over big wins.
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📌 Step 5: Use Trading Tools & AI Bots for an Edge
🔹 Best Forex Trading Tools in 2025
📊 TradingView & MT5 – Best for charting & analysis.
📉 AutoRisk Calculator – Automates lot sizing based on risk %.
🤖 AI & Algo Bots – AI-powered news sentiment analysis & high-frequency trading.
📅 Forex Factory & Myfxbook – Economic calendar & trade tracking.
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📌 Step 6: Stay Ahead in the Forex Market
🚀 Follow Pro Traders – Learn from institutions & hedge funds.
📊 Analyze Market Cycles – 2025 will be affected by interest rates & global policies.
📉 Avoid Overtrading – Focus on quality over quantity.
📈 Invest in Continuous Learning – Join trading communities & courses.
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🎯 Final Thoughts: The Fastest Way to Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025
✅ Develop a tested, profitable strategy.
✅ Master risk & money management.
✅ Apply to top prop firms & pass the evaluation.
✅ Scale with multiple funded accounts.
✅ Stay disciplined, patient, and focused on long-term success.
Community ideas
Gold Longterm Sentiment IndexUpdate 2 indicators:
1: HUI,XAU and GOLD Ratio Analysis
2: Cyber.Gold Sentiment Longterm Index
TT
I wonder when TradingView will ban
publish my indicator.
The platform with the stupid rules.
The relationship between HUI,XAU,GDX
HUI: Gold mining company performance stock
XAU: Gold mining company stock bakjc,metal
GDX: Tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) including large-cap companies
Source:
byvn.net
seekingalpha.com
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1!
The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components:
Ichimoku Indicator Components:
1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average)
• Short-term trend indicator.
• A sharp slope suggests strong momentum.
2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average)
• Medium-term trend indicator.
• Acts as a support/resistance level.
3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• A rising Span A suggests an uptrend.
4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red).
5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind)
• Confirms trend direction.
• If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum.
Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku
1. Kumo Breakout Strategy
• Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud).
• Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo.
2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy
• Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen.
• Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen.
3. Chikou Span Confirmation
• Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action.
• Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action.
4. Kumo Twist
• When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal.
• When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal.
5. Trend Confirmation
• Price above the cloud = bullish trend.
• Price inside the cloud = consolidation.
• Price below the cloud = bearish trend.
Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy
✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance).
✅ Works well in trending markets.
✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals.
Limitations
❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets.
❌ Can be complex for beginners.
❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD).
Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
Multi-Timeframe Volume Profile and Divergence StrategyObjective:
To combine multi-timeframe analysis, volume profile insights, and divergence patterns for identifying high-probability trades.
1. Strategy Components
A. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Use three timeframes for analysis:
Higher timeframe (HTF): To identify the overall trend (e.g., Weekly/4H).
Intermediate timeframe (ITF): For spotting critical support/resistance zones (e.g., Daily/1H).
Lower timeframe (LTF): For precise entry and exit signals (e.g., 15M/5M).
B. Volume Profile:
Incorporate Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR):
Identify key areas: Point of Control (POC), High Volume Nodes (HVN), and Low Volume Nodes (LVN).
Use these levels as dynamic support and resistance.
C. Divergence Patterns:
Look for Bullish Divergence and Bearish Divergence on oscillators like:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
MACD
Stochastic RSI
Combine divergences with price action near significant volume levels.
D. Additional Tools:
200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): For trend direction.
ATR (Average True Range): For stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: For confluence with volume profile levels.
2. Trading Plan
Step 1: Higher Timeframe Trend Identification
Use the HTF to establish whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or range.
Mark key swing highs, lows, and supply/demand zones.
Step 2: Intermediate Timeframe Analysis
Apply the Volume Profile on the ITF to find:
POC: Indicates price consensus.
HVN/LVN: Potential zones for reversals or continuation.
Watch for price approaching these levels.
Step 3: Lower Timeframe Execution
Monitor LTF for:
Divergence signals on oscillators.
Candle patterns like pin bars, engulfing candles, or inside bars at significant levels.
Confirm trades using:
Price breaking out of LVN or rejecting HVN.
Crossovers of EMA for extra confirmation.
3. Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profi t
Entry:
Long Position:
Price reacts at HVN/LVN near a support level.
Bullish divergence on LTF.
Short Position:
Price tests HVN/LVN near resistance.
Bearish divergence on LTF.
Stop Loss:
Place just beyond recent swing high/low or above/below the LVN/HVN zone.
Use ATR (1.5x) for volatility-based placement.
Take Profit:
First target: Nearby POC or Fibonacci levels.
Second target: HTF supply/demand zone
Guide For Channels Bluprint📢 Welcome, Fellow Traders!
In the ever-evolving world of financial markets, mastering the art of technical analysis is key to making informed and confident decisions. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting your journey, understanding the dynamics of ascending, descending, and parallel channels can give you an edge in identifying trends and market opportunities.
This article is crafted to help you navigate these fundamental patterns with clarity and precision. By the end of it, you'll not only recognize these channels but also learn how to leverage them in your trading strategies.
So, let’s dive in together and unravel the secrets of these channels on platforms like TradingView, where the world of analysis comes alive. Here’s to better insights and smarter trades!
Happy Trading! 🚀
⭐⭐ Trading channels are one of the most reliable tools in technical analysis. They help traders identify trends and make informed decisions. In this article, we will dive deep into ascending, descending, and parallel channels, exploring their characteristics, significance, and how to use them effectively.
1. What Are Trading Channels?
📊 A trading channel is a price range formed by two parallel lines: support (lower boundary) and resistance (upper boundary). These lines help identify the direction of the market trend:
Ascending Channel: Indicates an uptrend.
Descending Channel: Indicates a downtrend.
Parallel Channel: Suggests a sideways trend.
2. Ascending Channel
🔼 Definition:
An ascending channel, also called a rising channel, is characterized by higher highs and higher lows. It occurs when the price moves within a range that slopes upward.
🛠 Key Features:
Resistance Line: Connects higher highs.
Support Line: Connects higher lows.
Indicates a strong uptrend, signaling buying opportunities.
💡 How to Trade:
Buy Near Support: Enter trades when the price approaches the lower boundary.
Take Profit at Resistance: Exit trades near the upper boundary.
Breakout Strategy: Watch for a breakout above resistance for stronger bullish signals.
3. Descending Channel
🔽 Definition:
A descending channel, or falling channel, is formed when the price creates lower highs and lower lows. It indicates a downtrend.
🛠 Key Features:
Resistance Line: Connects lower highs.
Support Line: Connects lower lows.
Reflects bearish sentiment, signaling selling opportunities.
💡 How to Trade:
Sell Near Resistance: Short-sell trades when the price approaches the upper boundary.
Take Profit at Support: Exit trades near the lower boundary.
Breakdown Strategy: Monitor for a breakdown below support for stronger bearish momentum.
4. Parallel Channel
➖ Definition:
A parallel channel, also known as a horizontal or range-bound channel, is formed when the price moves sideways with consistent highs and lows.
🛠 Key Features:
Resistance Line: Stays flat, connecting equal highs.
Support Line: Stays flat, connecting equal lows.
Indicates market consolidation or indecision.
💡 How to Trade:
Buy at Support and Sell at Resistance: This is ideal for range-bound markets.
Breakout or Breakdown Strategy: Prepare for significant moves when the price exits the channel.
5. Tips for Identifying Channels on TradingView
🖊 Use Trendlines: Utilize TradingView’s trendline tool to connect support and resistance levels.
📈 Set Alerts: Configure alerts to notify you when the price approaches key levels.
🔍 Combine with Indicators: Use moving averages, RSI, or MACD for confirmation.
Conclusion-:
✅ Trading channels are powerful tools for understanding market behavior and making strategic decisions. Whether you’re analyzing an ascending channel for bullish trends, a descending channel for bearish trends, or a parallel channel for sideways markets, mastering these patterns can elevate your trading skills.
📢 Start practicing on TradingView and refine your approach to technical analysis. Success lies in identifying opportunities and managing risk wisely.
Learn What Will Make You Profitable in Forex & Gold Trading
What brings the consistent profits in trading?
Talking to hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe, I realized that there are the common misconceptions concerning that subject.
In this educational article, we will discuss what really will make you profitable in trading.
Trading Signals
🔔The first thing that 99% of struggling traders are looking for is signals.
Why damn learn if you can simply follow the trades of a pro trader and make money?!
The truth is, however, is that in order to repeat the performance of a signal provider you have to open all your trading positions in the same exact moment he does. (And I would not even mention the fact that there will be a delay between the moment the provider opens the trade and the moment he sends you the signal)
Because the signal can be sent at a random moment, quite often it will take time for you to reach your trading terminal and open the position.
Just a 1-minute delay may dramatically change the risk to reward ration of the trade and, hence, the final result.
Expert Advisors
🤖The second thing that really attracts the struggling traders is trading robots (EA) . The systems that trade automatically and aimed to generate consistent profits.
You simply start the program and wait for the money.
The main problem with EA is the fact that it requires constant monitoring . It can stop or freeze in a random moment and may require a reboot.
Moreover, due to changing market conditions, the EA should be regularly updated. Without the updates, at some moment it may blow your account.
Trading robot is the work : trading with the robots means their constant development, monitoring and improvement. And that work requires a high level of experience: both in coding and in trading.
Technical Indicators
📈The third thing that struggling traders are seeking is the "magic" indicator. The one that will accurately identify the safe points to buy and sell. You add the indicator on the chart, and you simply wait for the signal to open the trade.
The fact is that magic indicators do not exist. Indicator is the tool that can be applied as the extra confirmation. It should be applied strictly in a combination with something else, and its proper application requires a high level of expertise in trading.
Luck in Trading
🍀The fourth thing that newbie traders seek is luck. They open the trade, and then they pray the God, Powell, Fed or someone else to move the market in their favour.
And yes, occasionally, luck will be on your side. But relying on luck on a long-term basis, you are doomed to fail.
But what will make you profitable then?
What is the secret ingredient.
Remember, that secret ingredient does not exist.
In order to become a consistently profitable traders, you should rely on 4 crucial elements: trading plan, risk management, discipline and correct mindset.
🧠What is correct mindset in trading?
It simply means setting REALISTIC goals and having REALISTIC expectations from the market and from your trading.
📝A trading plan is the set of rules and conditions that you apply for the search of a trading setup and the management of the opened position.
Trading plan will be considered to be good if it is back tested on historical data and then tested on demo account for at least 3 consequent months.
✔️In order to follow the plan consistently, you need to be disciplined . You should be prepared for losing streaks, and you should be strong enough to not break once your trading account will be in a drawdown.
💰Risk management is one of the most important elements of your trading plan. It defines your risk per trade and your set of actions in case of losses. Even the best trading strategies may fail because of poor risk management.
Combining these 4 elements, you will become a consistently profitable trader. Remember, that there is no easy way, no shortcut. Trading is a hard work to be done.
❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Understanding Fibonacci In TradingUnlock the secrets of Fibonacci and its powerful applications in trading. Learn how to use Fibonacci tools to identify optimal entry and exit points, manage risk, and refine your trading strategies. While many traders are familiar with basic Fibonacci retracements, this guide will also explore advanced techniques and lesser-known concepts.
📚 The Foundation of Market Geometry
🔢 What is Fibonacci?
The Fibonacci sequence is a series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones:
0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34...
This mathematical principle, introduced by Leonardo Fibonacci in Liber Abaci (1202), is foundational to nature, architecture, and financial markets. The key ratio derived from this sequence is 1.618, known as the Golden Ratio.
✨ The Golden Ratio and Market Significance
The Golden Ratio (1.618) and its inverse (0.618) appear frequently in natural patterns and price movements. In trading, these ratios help determine potential support and resistance levels.
Other critical Fibonacci-derived levels include:
0.236 (23.6%)
0.382 (38.2%)
0.5 (50%) (not strictly Fibonacci but widely used)
0.618 (61.8%)
0.786 (78.6%)
📊 How Fibonacci Became a Trading Tool
Traders noticed that price movements often respect Fibonacci levels, leading to the creation of Fibonacci-based tools:
📉 Fibonacci Retracement: Identifies potential reversal zones during pullbacks.
📈 Fibonacci Extension: Forecasts potential profit-taking levels.
📐 Fibonacci Arcs, Fans, and Time Zones: Advanced tools for multidimensional analysis.
Circles
Fans
🛠 Applying Fibonacci in Trading
📍 Step 1: Identifying Swing Highs and Swing Lows
Choose a clear trend and mark:
Swing High (peak before price declines)
Swing Low (trough before price rises)
📏 Step 2: Using Fibonacci Retracement Levels
On platforms like TradingView, apply the Fibonacci tool:
Uptrend: Draw from Swing Low to Swing High.
Downtrend: Draw from Swing High to Swing Low.
Key retracement levels act as support or resistance zones.
🚀 Advanced Fibonacci Concepts
🎯 ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) Zone
A modern adaptation of Fibonacci, OTE focuses on the 0.618 - 0.786 retracement zone.
📊 Bullish Setup: In an uptrend, the price pulling back into the OTE zone signals a high-probability long entry.
📉 Bearish Setup: In a downtrend, price retracing into the OTE zone suggests a shorting opportunity.
💎 The Golden Pocket
The zone between 0.618 - 0.650 is known as the "Golden Pocket." This is a prime area where the price often finds strong support or resistance before continuing its trend.
⏳ Fibonacci Time Zones
While most traders focus on price-based Fibonacci levels, Fibonacci Time Zones can predict when significant price movements may occur. These vertical lines are placed at Fibonacci intervals (1, 2, 3, 5, 8...) from a significant market event.
🔄 Fibonacci Confluence
When multiple Fibonacci levels align with other indicators (trendlines, moving averages, pivot points), it creates a Fibonacci Confluence Zone, strengthening the probability of a reversal or continuation.
📊 Fibonacci Clusters
Traders can plot multiple Fibonacci retracements/extensions on different timeframes. Overlapping levels suggest a high probability reaction zone.
📌 Combining Fibonacci with Other Tools
Fibonacci analysis is most effective when combined with:
📉 Candlestick Patterns: Confirmation for reversals or continuations.
📏 Trendlines & Moving Averages: Validate Fibonacci levels.
📊 Volume Analysis: Gauge strength of reactions at Fibonacci levels.
🧠 ICT Strategies: Incorporate Fair Value Gaps, Inversion Fair Value Gaps, Breaker Blocks, and Order Blocks for precision entries.
📍 Practical Applications of Fibonacci
⚡ Scalping: Use Fibonacci on lower timeframes (1m, 5m) to identify intraday opportunities.
📈 Swing Trading: Combine Fibonacci retracements with trend analysis for multi-day trades.
💰 Long-Term Investing: Apply Fibonacci tools on weekly/monthly charts to pinpoint major turning points in the market cycle.
🏆 Key Takeaways
Mastering Fibonacci enhances your ability to:
Identify optimal entry and exit points.
Manage risks with precision.
Gain deeper insights into price movements.
By integrating Fibonacci with other trading strategies, you can refine your approach and improve decision-making. Start experimenting with Fibonacci tools today on TradingView and elevate your trading strategy!
How to determine trend line in trading?Determining a trend line in trading is a fundamental skill used to identify the direction and strength of a price trend. Here's a step-by-step guide to drawing and interpreting trend lines:
1. Understand the Basics of a Trend Line
A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points on a chart, extending into the future to act as a line of support or resistance.
Uptrend Line: Connects higher lows in an upward trend (acts as support).
Downtrend Line: Connects lower highs in a downward trend (acts as resistance).
Sideways/Ranging Market: Price moves horizontally, and trend lines may not be as effective.
2. Identify Key Price Points
For an uptrend, identify at least two higher lows (swing lows) and draw a line connecting them.
For a downtrend, identify at least two lower highs (swing highs) and draw a line connecting them.
The more times the price touches the trend line without breaking it, the stronger and more valid the trend line is.
3. Draw the Trend Line
Use a charting platform to draw the line manually.
Connect the swing lows for an uptrend or swing highs for a downtrend.
Ensure the line is not too steep or too flat; it should reflect the natural slope of the price movement.
4. Validate the Trend Line
A valid trend line should be touched by price at least three times. The more touches, the more reliable the trend line.
If the price breaks the trend line significantly, it may indicate a potential trend reversal or weakening of the current trend.
5. Use Trend Lines for Analysis
Support/Resistance: In an uptrend, the trend line acts as support. In a downtrend, it acts as resistance.
Breakouts: A break below an uptrend line or above a downtrend line may signal a trend reversal or continuation, depending on the context.
Trend Strength: A steep trend line may indicate a strong trend, while a shallow one may suggest a weaker trend.
6. Combine with Other Tools
Use trend lines in conjunction with other technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD) to confirm trends and potential entry/exit points.
Look for volume confirmation: Increased volume during a breakout or bounce off the trend line adds validity to the signal.
7. Adjust as Needed
Trend lines are not static. As new price data comes in, you may need to redraw or adjust the trend line to reflect the current market conditions.
Example:
BTC has touched the line that I've drawn multiple time so It is a reliable Bullish Trend line. The next Possible connection can be around 93.5k! the line also acts as a support.
By mastering trend lines, you can better identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively. Always practice on historical data and use proper risk management techniques.
Let's speak about savings...Hey guys,
As I've lately taken great interest in publishing my trading ideas here on TradingView,
I want to speak about something that rarely if ever gets spoken about in the trading community, by trading community I mean us goobers on charts who do intra-day, swing, day trading etc... who get sad for not making 10% a month on forex etc...
That is your savings, specifically investing your savings on a long term basis and compound the interest earned by the dividend yields.
Useless to say that I'll be speaking about the S&P 500 and how you can approach it too.
First of all, you can't directly buy the S&P500 that you see here on trading view, as this is an index and in order for you to invest in the performance of the index you need to buy into ETFs, mutual funds, or derivatives like options and futures that are designed to track it.
There are many big funds around, like iShares, Fidelity, Vanguard, Amundi etc...
To be honest the one I personally invest into is the Core S&P 500 USD Acc from iShares that auto compounds the dividends but you really can choose between tens of funds.
The key factors that you must keep into consideration when choosing a fund are these:
- Currency of the fund (what currency is the fund based on)= if it is another country's currency, you'll have to exchange it every time you want to make an entry, amounting to extra commissions and fees that aren't sexy.
- Dividends= if the fund pays out dividends, if it pays it in cash or shares or if it self reinvests them or it doesn't...
- Tax residency of the fund (on which exchange is the Fund/ETF listed on)= important as when it will come to pay your taxes, some funds may have extra taxes due to the residency/exchange.
Now... let's get to the sauce, you have probably heard about DCA (Dollar Cost Average) as it's been rubbed on your face by everyone who never looked at a chart, and that's a valid approach if you are 50, but we spend half of our days on the charts so we want to work based on charts and price, not on time.
My philosophy behind this is that, if our goal is maximizing profit while spreading entries evenly, we should aim to get the best entries, and how could time, which has nothing to do with price, dictate our entries?
It is quite literally putting your finger down randomly on the chart and choosing to enter there.
There is a way easier and more effective approach, and that's basing yourself on price by simply buying the dip.
Yes, I quite literally wrote all of this article just to tell you to buy the dips, but here's a little practical example on why buying the dip performs better than DCA and what values you could look for yourself to try to optimize your entries.
The most basic approach to DCA is to buy a set amount each month, for the sake of the example let's say you would have bought $1000 worth of shares every 30 days starting from Feb/2022, your entries would have been spread out randomly and you would end up with roughly $42.000 today, which would be more if you reinvested all the dividends and profits.
A better approach would be buying each time there is a dip of X percentage in price.
If during the same time we would have bought about 200$ every time price dipped 1.25% we would have made 192 entries and made around $51.000 without compounding interest and dividends, then that would be closer to 55.000 - 60.000.
All of this just by basing ourself on price and not time.
You wouldn't evaluate taste with sounds, or sounds with numbers... so why evaluate numbers with time? Rather stick to what the chart itself does and get the best spread out entries possible, like this not only you would make more money, but have way more entries spread out through the chart for about the same initial capital, which is not bad when you are planning to long term invest.
To wrap it up, my practical example is buying the S&P500 (or another index you like), every time price drops of 1.25% - 1.75% in a single day, and compound interest every time you get a entry. Like this you'll set yourself an long term investment fund that will grow exponentially through the years and help you more than save your money through the years.
As as we all know but not admit that spending comes easy when money is laying around, so stash the unnecessary and see it grow ;)
the numbers in the example are rough estimates but give the actual idea of performance, and excuse me for the simplicity of the argument but it always comes handy
Trade Management Strategy Testing Dow JonesI will be trying out a new holding style for my trades going forward based on my journal and statistics. Instead of having a fixed target, I will instead hold my trades all the way until 04:00pm market close.
Pros:
Letting trades run. I don't know how far a trade will go. By not having a strict target, I can lock in those big running days.
Not stressing over if it will hit target. By not having a strict target, I can just let price do what it is going to do and close my day trades at 04:00pm. I don't have to worry about if it is only 10 ticks away from my target.
Allows me more freedom to use my time elsewhere. By not having a strict target, I know all my day trades will be closed by 04:00pm. I will set an alarm 5 minutes before 4 to close any open positions. I can then use my time more productively instead of being at the screen.
Cons:
Giving back profits. I know by not having a strict target that I can be up a certain percent and by the end of day close, any/all profits can be gone and or stopped out.
Can have a lot of small wins/losses and Breakevens mixed with the occasional stop out and giant win. Since I have no target, I have no control over how much profit I may make in a given day. Someone with a fixed target knows they are getting out at 2:1 for example.
Below is an exact trade I have taken using strict target of 200 ticks.
Using End of Day Hold the trade would look like this
200 ticks vs 553 ticks
This is just one example, and my journal shows countless more just like this.
If anybody has any thoughts or experience with this holding style, I would love to hear feedback.
Should traditional crypto traders quit manual trading?Have you ever experienced FOMO buying or panic selling? I believe most human traders have, to some extent.
Should traditional crypto traders quit manual trading? For most, the answer is yes. This is especially true for those using high leverage (e.g., 100x). There are countless stories of traders turning capital into 100-fold gains within a month, only to be liquidated on a single trade they were overly confident about, leading to bankruptcy.
In the Forex market, non-professionals trade out of necessity—whether for travel or business. These participants are indifferent to small price fluctuations, creating profit opportunities for traders.
However, in the crypto market, newbies are often the lambs led to slaughter. Most newcomers lose their funds and quit within a month. As a result, crypto trading has become a zero-sum game between human traders, quant traders, AI traders, and long-term investors.
The biggest weaknesses of manual trading are emotional control and inconsistent risk management. In the long run, human traders simply don’t have the statistical edge.
As an alternative, becoming a successful quant trader is possible—but it requires extra effort, big capital, and luck. The competition is tough as well. Tradingview provides fantastic tools for this purpose.
HOW-TO Swing Trade SolanaI take a much more conservative approach to trading - that's how the JSC - Swing Long is used. It simply finds extremely oversold moments (on larger time frames) and reaps the rewards. The strategy tester shows 82% win rate using this indicator, with an average 22.5% trade.
As of now, it's VERY close to triggering the BUY alert, but I can't be too hasty because of this bearish momentum we are seeing.
I am able to set alerts for this indicator, so as of now, I will wait for the BUY alert.
I designed it specifically for my students, especially beginners, to have confidence in their next trade.
SOL blockchain is the KING of meme coins - that's the main reason it gained so much value in this bull run. In order to buy meme coins, you had to buy Solana first, then swap it.
Keep it simple and have confidence in your next trade.
-JumpStartCrypto
Mastering Bitcoin #1In this quick but educational video we delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin's price movements using popular technical analysis tools like Bollinger Bands, Elliott Wave Theory, Triple Moving Average, and Bearish Divergence on MACD and RSI. Learn how these few indicators can help predict what might be ahead for Bitcoin based on current data.
I'm gonna make this into a habit, creating short, educational videos, so expect more of this insightful, bite-sized content going forward.
Gann Time Cycles Price Synchronization | Gann’s Timing StrategyGann Time Cycles | Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method
In this video, we dive deep into the Gann Time-Price Synchronization Method, a powerful approach to market analysis that combines impulse moves, time cycles, and squared price levels. Learn how aligning price action with time-based cycles can help you identify high-probability trade setups and significantly improve your trading accuracy.
Key Points Covered:
- How to use Gann time cycles and price levels to anticipate market reactions.
- Step-by-step guide to entry criteria, stop-loss placement, and take-profit strategy.
- Practical application of the Gann method across Forex, stocks, and commodities.
- Enhancing trade confidence with market confirmation tools like candlestick patterns, RSI, and volume.
- Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced trader, this method will help you make more informed and confident trading decisions.
Trading Steps Overview- Gann Time Cycles | Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method.
1. Identify the Initial Impulse Move - Find the first strong price movement.
2. Identify Key Time Cycles - Use 144, 225, 52, 90, and 26-bar cycles.
3. Apply Price Squaring & Vibrations - Calculate squared price levels.
4. Look for Market Confirmation Confirm entries with price action and indicators.
📌 Timestamps: Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles
00:00 ▶️Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method - Introduction.
00:40 ▶️ Risk Disclaimer.
01:00 ▶️ What is the Gann Time-Price Synchronization Method.
02:18 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method - Core Principle.
02:52 ▶️ Step 1 - Identify the Initial Impulse Move
03:18 ▶️ Step 2 - Identify Key Gann Time Cycles.
03:50 ▶️ Step 3 - Apply Gann Price Squaring & Gann law of Vibrations.
04:10 ▶️ Step 4 - Look for Market Confirmation.
04:29 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles- Example.
10:49 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles- Trading Rules & Execution.
11:30 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles - Conclusion & Final Thoughts.
No More Noise:Focus on Your Decisions to Enhance Trading SuccessImagine sailing through stormy seas, surrounded by countless navigational tools, each offering conflicting directions. This metaphor vividly captures the reality faced by many traders in today's frenetic market landscape, where information overload can easily drown out clarity and sound judgment. The incessant barrage of real-time news, technical charts, and market statistics creates a chaotic environment that can overwhelm even the most seasoned professionals.
Moreover, in a society dominated by social media, we find ourselves perpetually distracted, disconnected from our goals, and conflicted in our decision-making. Each day, our smartphones inundate us with notifications that contribute to the noise of daily life, making it increasingly difficult to remain focused on our plans and decisions.
The Challenge of Information Overload in Trading
In the trading realm, information overload is a relentless opponent. It refers to a condition in which an excessive amount of data obscures judgment and hampers effective decision-making. The stakes are high, with fastest-moving markets generating streams of news, charts, algorithmic signals, and social media updates, all competing for our attention. Rather than fostering clarity, this avalanche of data can paralyze traders, leading them to either over-analyze situations or act impulsively.
Understanding information overload's implications and developing strategies to combat it is vital for anyone seeking to optimize their trading performance. The ability to filter through the chaos and focus on actionable insights can set one up for success in volatile markets.
The Psychological Toll of Information Overload
The psychological burden of information overload can deeply affect traders, producing an array of negative emotional responses such as stress, fatigue, and anxiety. The constant flood of data can lead to analysis paralysis, a state where the trader struggles to make decisions due to overwhelming choices. This can manifest in two harmful ways: decision fatigue—which leads to hasty, unconsidered actions—and excessive deliberation, causing missed opportunities.
Traders grappling with this cognitive overload may encounter heightened anxiety and impaired judgment, making them susceptible to emotional decisions driven by fear or greed. Studies indicate that elevated levels of stress disrupt logical thinking, further complicating the decision-making process.
Addressing this psychological challenge requires a disciplined approach to manage data overload. Implementing strategies to filter out noise and prioritize essential information can significantly enhance decision-making capabilities and lead to more consistent trading results.
Poor Trading Decisions Fueled by Information Overload
The impact of information overload on trading decisions can lead to costly mistakes. When inundated with signals from charts, news feeds, and market alerts, traders risk overtrading, misinterpreting trends, and hesitating on vital opportunities.
Overtrading often occurs when traders react to minor price fluctuations or conflicting indicators without a clear strategy. This can result in excessive transaction costs and diminished returns. Conversely, misinterpretation of trends can happen when traders focus on irrelevant metrics, leading them to ignore critical data points that influence market movements. Research indicates that traders exposed to data overload miss trading opportunities 30% more frequently.
To combat these pitfalls, traders must streamline their processes and focus on high-value information, enhancing their readiness to make informed, timely decisions.
Strategies to Manage Information Overload in Trading
Effectively managing information overload is crucial for traders seeking sound decision-making and profitability. Here are several strategies designed to curb data noise and allow traders to concentrate on actionable insights:
1. Narrow Your Data Sources
Identify and focus on a few essential data sources that directly impact your strategy. Instead of attempting to absorb every market update, prioritize key indicators that are relevant to your trades, such as:
- Economic calendars and central bank announcements for forex traders.
- Earnings reports and sector-specific news for stock traders.
By narrowing your focus, you can minimize distractions and optimize your analysis.
2. Utilize Automation and Filters
Automation tools are invaluable for simplifying the trading process. Alerts, AI-driven analyses, and algorithmic scanners can filter out extraneous information, ensuring you only see insights pertinent to your strategy. Automation allows you to allocate mental resources to the analysis that matters most.
3. Leverage Trading Dashboards
Customizable trading dashboards consolidate vital data points—charts, news updates, and metrics—into a single interface. This significantly enhances efficiency and reduces the need to switch between screens, allowing traders to hone in on the information that truly matters.
4. Employ News Aggregators
Tools like Bloomberg and Reuters can help traders prioritize high-impact news updates by curating content that aligns with their focus. The result is a streamlined approach to news that presents only relevant information, reducing confusion during trading hours.
5. Use Economic Calendars
Economic calendars track significant market-moving events, enabling traders to prepare for volatility. By filtering events based on their relevance, such as high-impact announcements for specific currency pairs, traders can better anticipate market shifts without unnecessary distractions.
6. Implement Sentiment Analysis Tools
Market sentiment can provide critical context for trading decisions. Tools that analyze sentiment from various sources can help traders gauge market mood, guiding decisions during turbulent periods.
Balancing Data and Intuition in Trading
While data-driven analysis is fundamental to trading success, intuition—gained through experience—also plays a crucial role. Finding the right balance between data and gut instinct can lead to more effective decision-making.
Data serves as a reliable starting point, offering insights into patterns and trends. However, an overemphasis on data can create paralysis, particularly in uncertain situations. Developing a nuanced understanding of market behavior through experience can complement data-driven analysis, allowing traders to make informed decisions during times of volatility.
How to Achieve Balance
- Use data to identify trade opportunities but trust your intuition regarding the level of investment.
- When faced with conflicting indicators, lean on experience to interpret market sentiment rather than relying solely on algorithms.
This harmonious relationship between data and intuition not only improves decision-making but also helps build the confidence necessary to navigate complex markets.
Read also:
And...
Conclusion
In an era characterized by rampant information overload, particularly in trading, maintaining focus is more critical than ever. Our connected world, fueled by notifications and social media distractions, mirrors the chaotic nature of trading—demanding that we cut through the noise to concentrate on what matters most. By implementing targeted strategies to filter extraneous information and honing the balance between data and intuition, traders can enhance their decision-making processes. Ultimately, success in trading requires both clarity and discipline—two critical components that allow traders to thrive amidst the tumultuous tides of the market.
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How Does a Carry Trade Work? How Does a Carry Trade Work?
A carry trade is a popular forex trading strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differentials between two currencies, aiming to earn returns from the interest gap. This article explores what a carry trade is, its formula, and how the strategy works, helping traders understand its potential advantages and risks.
Carry Trade: Definition
A carry trade is a popular forex strategy where traders take advantage of the difference in interest rates between two currencies. It involves borrowing money in a currency with a low borrowing cost—this is known as the "funding currency"—and then converting that borrowed amount into another offering higher interest, called the "investment currency." This is done to earn the interest rate differential between the two.
The Mechanics of a Forex Carry Trade
A carry position involves a few key components that work together to create potential opportunities in the forex market.
1. The Funding Currency
The first component is the currency that the trader borrows, the funding currency. Traders typically choose one with low interest costs because the amount to repay will be minimal. Common funding currencies include the Japanese yen (JPY) or the Swiss franc (CHF), as these often have low or even negative borrowing costs.
2. The Investment Currency
The second component is the investment currency, which is the one into which the borrowed funds are converted. This is chosen because it offers a higher interest yield, providing an opportunity to earn returns from the interest rate differential.
Popular investment currencies often include the Australian dollar (AUD) or the New Zealand dollar (NZD), as they tend to have higher borrowing costs. However, in recent years, emerging market currencies, like the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL), and South African rand (ZAR), have also been favoured due to their high interest yields.
3. Interest Rate Differential
The core concept here is to capitalise on the interest rate differential between the funding and investment currency. If someone borrows in a currency with a 0.5% premium and invests in another offering a 4% yield, the differential (known as the "carry") is 3.5%. This differential represents the potential return, assuming there are no significant changes in the exchange rate.
4. Swaps and Rollovers
Swaps and rollovers are key factors. When you hold a position overnight (roll it over), the difference in interest rates between the two currencies is either credited or debited to your account. This is because when you trade a forex pair, you're effectively borrowing one currency to buy another. The swap rate compensates for the interest rate difference.
Positive Swap Rate: If the interest rate of the currency you are buying is higher than that you are selling, you might receive a positive swap rate, meaning you earn interest.
Negative Swap Rate: Conversely, if the interest rate of the currency you're selling is higher than the one you're buying, you'll pay interest, leading to a negative swap rate.
5. Leverage
Many traders use leverage to amplify their positions. Leverage allows them to borrow additional funds to expand the size of their investment. While this can potentially increase returns, it also magnifies risks. If the position moves against the trader, losses can quickly accumulate due to the leverage.
6. Market Fluctuations
The price of the pair is a crucial factor in the yield of the differential. While the differential offers the potential for returns, any adverse price movement can negate these gains. For instance, if the investment currency depreciates relative to the funding currency, the trader could face losses when converting back to the funding currency.
Conversely, if the investment currency appreciates relative to the funding currency, then they can potentially make an additional gain on top of their interest yield.
7. Transaction Fees and Spreads
Traders must consider transaction fees and spreads, which are the differences between the buying and selling prices of a forex pair. These costs can reduce the overall gains of the operation. Wider spreads, particularly in less liquid forex pairs, can increase the cost of entering and exiting positions.
In a carry position, these components interact continuously. A trader borrows in a low-interest-rate currency, converts the funds to a higher-yielding one, and aims to earn from the differential while carefully monitoring market movements, transaction costs, and swap rates. The overall approach is based on balancing the interest earned, fees, and potential pair’s price movements.
Carry Trade: Formula and Example
To calculate the potential return of a carry trade, traders use a basic formula:
- Potential Return = (Investment Amount * Interest Rate Differential) * Leverage
Let’s examine a carry trade example. Imagine someone borrows 10,000,000 Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate of 0.5% and uses these funds to invest in Australian dollars (AUD), which has a higher borrowing cost of 4.5%. The differential is 4% (4.5% - 0.5%).
If the current exchange rate is 1 AUD = 80 JPY, converting 10,000,000 JPY results in 125,000 AUD (10,000,000 JPY / 80).
They then use the 125,000 AUD to earn 4.5% interest annually:
- 125,000 * 4.5% = 5,625 AUD
The cost of borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.5% interest is:
- 10,000,000 * 0.5% = 50,000 JPY
Converted back to AUD at the original exchange price (1 AUD = 80 JPY), the interest cost is:
- 50,000 JPY / 80= 625 AUD
The net return is the interest earned minus the borrowing cost (for simplicity, we’ll exclude other transaction fees):
- 5,625 AUD − 625 AUD = 5,000 AUD
If the price changes, it can significantly impact the position’s outcome. For example, if the AUD appreciates against the JPY, moving from 80 to 85 JPY per AUD, the 125,000 AUD would now be worth 10,625,000 JPY (125,000 * 85). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader receives additional returns.
Conversely, if the AUD depreciates to 75 JPY per AUD, the value of 125,000 AUD drops to 9,375,000 JPY (125,000 * 75). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader faces a loss.
Types of Carry Trades: Positive and Negative
Trades with yield differential can be classified into two types: positive and negative, each defined by the differential between the funding and investment currencies.
Positive Carry Trade
A positive carry trade occurs when the borrowing rate on the investment currency is higher than that of the funding one. For example, if a trader borrows in Japanese yen (JPY) at 0.5% and invests in Australian dollars (AUD) at 4.5%, the differential is 4%. This differential means they earn more interest on the invested currency than they pay on the borrowed one, potentially resulting in a net gain, especially if market movements are favourable.
Negative Carry Trade
A negative carry trade happens when the yield on the funding currency is higher than that on the investment. In this case, the trader would lose money on the rate differential. For example, borrowing in US dollars at 2% to invest in euros at 1% would result in a negative carry of -1%. Traders might still pursue negative yield differential trades to hedge other positions or take advantage of expected market movements, but the strategy involves more risk.
How Can You Analyse Carry Trade Opportunities?
To analyse opportunities, traders focus on several key factors to determine whether a carry position could be effective.
1. Differentials
The primary factor here is the interest rate differential between the two currencies. Traders look for forex pairs where the investment currency offers a significantly higher interest return than the funding currency. This differential provides the potential returns from holding the position over time.
2. Economic Indicators
Traders monitor economic indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment figures, as these can influence central banks' decisions on interest rates. A strong economy may lead to higher borrowing costs, making a pair more attractive for a yield differential position. Conversely, weak economic data could result in rate cuts, reducing the appeal of a currency.
3. Central Bank Policies
Understanding central bank policies is crucial. Traders analyse statements from central banks, like the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan, to gauge future rate changes. If a central bank hints at raising borrowing costs, it could present an opportunity for a positive carry transaction.
4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
This type of transaction often performs well in low-volatility environments. Traders assess market sentiment and risk appetite by analysing geopolitical events, market trends, and investor behaviour.
Risks of a Carry Trade
While carry trading can offer potential returns from borrowing cost differentials, they also come with significant risks that traders must consider.
- Exchange Risk: If the investment currency depreciates against the funding one, it can wipe out the returns from the differential and result in losses.
- Interest Rate Risk: Changes in the cost of borrowing by central banks can alter the differential, reducing potential returns or even creating a negative carry situation.
- Leverage Risk: Many traders use leverage to amplify returns, but this also magnifies potential losses. A small adverse movement in pairs can push the trader out of the market.
- Liquidity Risk: During periods of low market liquidity, exiting a position may become difficult or more costly, increasing the risk of loss.
A Key Risk: Carry Trade Unwinding
Unwinding happens when traders begin to exit their positions en masse, often due to changes in market conditions, such as increased volatility or a shift in risk sentiment. This essentially means exiting the investment and repurchasing the original currency.
Unwinding can trigger rapid and significant price movements, particularly if many traders are involved, and lead to a much lower return if the exit is timed incorrectly. For example, if global markets face uncertainty or economic data points to a weakening economy, investors may seek so-called safer assets, leading to a swift exit from carry positions and a steep decline in the investment currency.
The Bottom Line
This type of strategy offers a way to take advantage of interest rate differentials between currencies, but it comes with its own set of risks. Understanding the mechanics and analysing opportunities is critical. Ready to explore yield differential trades in the forex market? Open an FXOpen account today to access advanced tools, low-cost trading, and more than 600 markets. Good luck!
FAQ
What Is a Carry Trade?
A carry trade in forex meaning refers to a strategy where traders borrow in a low-interest currency (the "funding currency") and invest in a higher-interest one (the "investment currency") to earn returns from the differential.
What Is the Carry Trade Strategy?
The carry trade strategy consists of borrowing funds in a currency with a low interest rate and using those funds to invest in a currency that offers a higher interest rate. Traders then invest the borrowed funds in the higher-yielding one to earn returns from the borrowing cost differential. The strategy typically relies on both relatively stable forex prices and the interest differential remaining favourable.
How Does the Japanese Carry Trade Work?
The Japanese currency carry trade typically involves borrowing the Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate and converting it into another with a higher yield, like the Australian dollar (AUD). The aim is to take advantage of the gap in borrowing costs.
What Is an Example of a Yen Carry Trade?
An example of a yen carry position is borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.10% interest and converting it to AUD, which earns 4.35%. The trader takes advantage of the 4.25% differential, assuming favourable market conditions.
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PLR (Path of Least Resistance) Strategy Explanation - $SHOPHi guys this is a follow up to a post I have just published about my trading idea on shorting NYSE:SHOP ,
It really doesn't matter if you want to short the market or long the market as it works either way, but for the sake of the example I'll take a 6 months period from the Shopify chart following earnings to better explain you my strategy...
This right here is the NYSE:SHOP chart from approx. Jan/2024 to end of Aug/2024,
2 Earnings have been announced, both having great positive surprises, but regardless of the positive surprise (typically bullish indicator), the stock fell of 45%+.
Let's add the earnings dates to the chart so that you can better visualize them:
What you care about in this image is the earnings dates lined out, as you can see the surprise was positive yet both fell more than 10% in just a day, that I will take as the upcoming trend for at least the time being, till the next earning is announced (so, if for example the 13/Feb earning ended up being bearish, my overview on the market till at least the next earning on 8/May, will be bearish, so all of the trades I will take will be shorts).
Now I will line out the trend and the BoSs (breaks of structure) just to better visualize the trend:
As you can see the Earning date candles signed the beginning of a down trend twice, pre-announced by the Earning candle itself.
The entry strategy is now simple, the idea behind it is to "follow the path of least resistance".. by that I mean that, if your bias is bullish, who enter on candles that are of the opposite direction to the one you are heading to? - Sure you might say that it is to get better entries as ofc, on a short bias, higher sale points = better profits, but the goal here is not maximizing profits, but raising the odds exponentially so that you can take surer trades.
I've tested this strategy from Feb/2021 and so far the win rate is 95.6% (123 out of 136 trades profited .
The way the entries are spread is this:
Basically every time a bearish candle - that closes lower than the previous bearish candle did - is created, a short position of 1% of total equity is generated.
The period begins from the beginning of the current earnings season, and closes the day before the next earnings season as it works within a 3 months frame.
Each entry HAS to be the lowest bearish candle of the period, example:
Only these candles marked in blue count as entries for short positions as their close is lower of more than 0.5% than the previous one,
The pink ones are higher than the lowest up to that point, so they do not count as entries as they are technically part of a pullback that is moving in the opposite direction where you are heading.
So, going back to the entries, we enter on the close of the lowest bearish candle close up to that point.
For safety, we trail the stop loss to the previous high, this is where well defined trend lines come handy:
The thick black line is the trend line, and as new lows are broken, I mark those as BoS (break of structure) and until a new one is created, the SL will go to the previous high, and so it goes.
(viceversa for buys).
We then proceed to target the FVGs left behind by previous quarters:
As you can see there are massive gaps in the chart that we will target and identify as FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) and set the TP at the close (lowest point) of the fair value gap.
Now comes in your exit strategy...
There really are 3 ways that you can tackle this:
1- You set up TP to the lowest FVG of the series (if there are multiple like in this case)
2- You set up TP to the first FVG still open during the quarter following the Earnings Period
3- You tackle both TPs and take each FVG as a partial close to the position (example: if there are 2 FVGs you take out 50% of the position on the first and 50% on the last).
But what to do if your positions didn't reach TP (FVG close) before the next Earning or there is no FVG to begin with???
- In the case the TP you have marked out at the close of the FVG didn't reach, you'll proceed to close the position 1 day before the next Earnings is coming, unless your conviction that the FVG will fill in is so high, then you can let those run at your own risk:
- In the case in which a FVG is not present then you'll target the previous High (in case of a buy) or Low (in case of a sell) as your TP, utilize the previous low (in case of buy) or previous high (in case of sell) as SL and just let it run:
as you can see the 4 trades were all profitable, made little money but sure money in just 15 days
Unless I forget anything, this right here, is my strategy.
Simple, straight forward, high success rate and doesn't leave anything up to the case.
If you have any questions PLEASE leave a comment below and I'll do my best to reply in time ;)
How to Know When Alt-Season Is Here?Hello, Traders!
If you've been in crypto long enough, you’ve probably heard the term alt-season — that exciting period when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC), and the market sees massive rallies across smaller assets. But how do you know when an alt-season is about to begin?
There are key alt-season indicators that traders watch to spot opportunities before the big moves happen. Let’s break down what alt-season is, how to identify it, and what signs indicate that a market-wide altcoin rally is about to start. 👇🏻
What Is Alt-Season?
Alt-season, short for altcoin season, is a market cycle when altcoins (any cryptocurrency that isn’t Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin and experience rapid price increases. During alt-season, traders shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins, leading to:
Higher Altcoin Dominance.
Increased Liquidity in Smaller-Cap Coins.
Massive Rallies in Speculative Assets.
Alt-season doesn’t happen randomly; it follows specific market conditions and signals that traders can identify early.
Key Indicators That Alt-Season Is Coming
1. Bitcoin Dominance Declines
One of the strongest alt-season indicators is the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D). This metric measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the entire crypto market.
When bitcoin dominance falls, it signals that traders are moving capital into altcoins. If BTC dominance breaks a long-term support level, it often marks the beginning of alt-season.
2. Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin
Ethereum (ETH) is the largest altcoin, and its performance typically sets the tone for the broader altcoin market.
If ETH/BTC starts trending upward, it’s a strong sign that alt-season could be near. Ethereum often leads the first wave of altcoin breakouts, followed by mid-cap and low-cap coins.
3. Altcoin Market Cap Growth
Tracking altcoins' total market cap (MCAP) (excluding Bitcoin) can indicate early alt-season signals.
When the altcoin market cap increases while Bitcoin remains stable or declines, it shows capital rotation into altcoins. A sudden spike in the altcoin market cap, especially with volume, indicates growing investor interest.
4. Surge in Crypto Airdrops and ICOs
New projects launch aggressively during alt-season, and crypto airdrops become more frequent.
If you start seeing airdrop crypto promotions everywhere, it may be a sign that the market is heating up. Many traders hunt for free airdrop crypto opportunities during alt-seasons to get early exposure to new tokens.
5. Social Media and Retail Hype Increases
Retail traders often drive the biggest altcoin rallies. Some signs that alt-season is underway:
Crypto influencers and X (formerly known as Twitter) threads constantly mention that “alt-season is here.” Crypto airdrops are a trend on social media, with traders looking for ways to get airdrop crypto opportunities. Telegram and Discord groups have become highly active, discussing the “next 100x altcoins.”
Final Thoughts
The alt-season is one of the most exciting periods in crypto trading. Recognizing the right alt-season indicators can help you enter early, ride the trend, and exit before the hype fades.
So, traders, do you think we’re nearing the next alt-season? What’s your go-to strategy during altcoin rallies? Let’s discuss this in the comments!
Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders.
One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on?
📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading
Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out.
Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout.
💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events
Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action.
To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack.
If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell.
👉👈 Who’s Right?
Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality.
The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news.
💡 Why It Matters
Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs.
Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller.
💚 Final Thoughts
Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you.
So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!
How market goes up and down?Hello guys. more than 80% of the market has no huge order inside. for these zones you should watch Tokyo and London session. if both were down, the NY session will go up and break the start of downtrend. It is simple easy and you must to know the response zone. for this chart it is sort of Parallel. be happy and have a profitable trade(wink)- CM me if any question or have an idea about.
Marking MC, and Signal BarTo mark the Master Candle (MC), wait for the price to cross and close 7EMA. Then look to the left of the candle that crossed and closed it. In most cases, the MC is directly in front of this candle.
As it's shown in the chart, Candle X has crossed and closed 7EMA. So, candle Y is the MC.
Bullish Signal Bar: a green Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's upper shadow.
Bearish Signal Bar: a red Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's lower shadow.
Note 1: Signal Bar can be spotted via Candlestick Math too. This means we consider the opening price of the first and the closing price of the last candle. If these candles add to a valid Signal Bar, we consider it as a signal to go in trade.
Note 2: the only situations that Signal Bar is valid:
For trading in the opposite direction of the trend, we should be in a ranging market (inside the MC range), and the price should have toughed MC levels and BB (Bollinger Bands).
For trading in the direction of the trend, the price should have at least touched an MC level and one of the EMAs.
As we see, summation of candles X & Y was not a bearish Pinbar. So, we don't have a valid signal to go short after candle Y. In these situations we expect the price to go higher.
Different Types of W Patterns and How to Trade ThemHello dear KIU_COIN family 🐺 .
Recently, I decided to provide some educational content for you, my dear audience, and introduce some essential and basic trading terms.
Here’s what you should know: In these lessons, we will cover three different seasons:
🔹 Season 1: Reversal and continuation patterns.
🔹 Season 2: How to use RSI and other indicators to find good entry points.
🔹 Season 3: Definitions of Fibonacci and seasonality in trading.
Stay tuned for valuable insights! 🚀
✅ For the first section of 🔹 Season 1 , I’ll be covering W patterns— a well-known bullish reversal pattern :
As you can see in the chart above, we usually have three types of W recovery patterns , which are the most important ones for us. However, in this section, we just want to get a general understanding of them. In the upcoming section, we will learn how to trade them and explore how they actually appear on the chart and the story behind them !
✅ This is the first and most common type of W pattern:
✅ This is the second type of W pattern:
✅ This is the third type of W pattern:
Ok, guys; I think this is enough for today, and I hope you enjoyed this educational content. However, don't forget to ask your questions below and support me with your likes and follows for more of this content. 🐺🔥