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When Intuition Beats the Algorithm█ When Gut Feeling Beats the Bot: How Experience Can Improve Algorithmic Trading In today’s world of fast, data-driven trading, we often hear that algorithms and rules-based systems are the future. But what happens when you mix that with a trader’s intuition, the kind that only comes from years of watching charts and reading price action? A recent study has some surprising results: A seasoned discretionary trader (someone who trades based on what they see and feel, not just rules) was given a basic algorithmic strategy. The twist? He could override the signals and use his instincts. The result? He turned a losing system into a winning one, big time. █ What Was the Experiment? Researchers Zarattini and Stamatoudis (2024) wanted to test whether a skilled trader’s experience could boost a mechanical system. They took 9,794 stock “gap up” events from 2016 to 2023, where a stock opens much higher than the day before, and let the trader pick which ones looked promising. ⚪ To make it fair: All charts were anonymized — no names, no news, no distractions. The trader had only the price action to guide his choices. He could also manage open trades — adjusting stop-losses, profit targets, and position sizing based on what the price was doing. ⚪ The Trading Setup █ What Did They Find? The trader only selected about 18% of all the gap-ups. But those trades performed far better than the full list. Here's what stood out: Without stop-losses, the basic strategy lost money consistently (down -0.25R after just 8 days). With the trader involved, profits rose fast, hitting +0.80R just 4 days after entry. Risk was tightly managed: only 0.25% of capital was risked per trade. ⚪ So what made the difference? The trader could spot things the system missed: Strong momentum early in a move Clean breakouts from long sideways ranges Patterns that had real follow-through, not just random gaps He avoided weak setups and managed trades like a pro, cutting losers, letting winners run, and trailing positions with smart stop placements. ⚪ Example An experienced trader can quickly identify a breakaway gap, when a stock gaps up above a clear resistance level. Unlike random gaps, this setup often signals the start of a strong move. While a system might treat all gaps the same, a skilled trader knows this one has real potential. █ What Does This Mean for You? This research shows that trading experience still matters — a lot. If you’re a systematic trader, adding a discretionary filter (whether it’s your own review or someone else’s) could drastically improve your results. A clean chart read can help you avoid false signals and focus only on the best setups. If you’re a discretionary trader, this study is proof that your skills can add measurable value. With the right tools and discipline, you don’t need to throw away your instincts, you can combine them with structure and still win. █ Key Takeaways ⚪ Gut feeling isn’t just noise, trained instincts can spot what rules miss. ⚪ Trade selection matters more than just following every signal. ⚪ Managing risk and exits well is just as important as picking good entries. ⚪ Hybrid trading, rules plus judgment — might be the most powerful combo. ----------------- Disclaimer The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information. All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by Zeiierman
13
Strong Deviation News Trade MethodBack tested News-Based Trading Strategy | March–early June Results This strategy trades only on strong deviation surprises in high-impact economic news releases, aiming to capture sharp market moves caused by unexpected data. What is a Strong Deviation? A strong deviation occurs when the actual economic data significantly differs from the forecasted number, beyond typical market expectations. This threshold is identified using advanced AI analysis of historical news data to measure how much surprise generally triggers meaningful price movement. Traders can implement these deviation levels as objective filters to enter trades only when the market is likely to react strongly. Back test Summary (March to early June): Total net result: +146.3 units (pips/points/%) Number of trades: 10 Entry logic: Trade triggered when news surprise meets or exceeds strong deviation thresholds Stop-loss: Set at 1.5 times the 15-minute chart ATR (Average True Range) to allow for normal volatility Take-profit: Set at 2 times the stop-loss distance to secure favorable risk-reward Visual signals: Each executed trade is marked on the chart with a blue pin Highlights: Focus on strong market-moving surprises only, filtering out noise Risk management designed to balance protection and opportunity Trades aligned strictly with news-driven momentum Back tested with consistent positive returns over three months on key US economic data How to Use: Apply the strong deviation thresholds identified via AI-powered analysis as your trigger for news trades. Use the ATR-based stops and doubled take-profit for balanced risk control. This strategy suits traders aiming for clear, data-driven signals around economic events with disciplined trade management. this text was powered by ai... feel free to comment and discus the strategy. always open to news things and your thoughts. and always remember . to learn is to share ...
Education
by alisardari
Reading The Room: Market Sentiment TechnicalsThe Market Sentiment Technicals indicator, created by LuxAlgo , is a powerful tool that blends multiple technical analysis methods into a single, easy-to-read sentiment gauge. It’s designed to help traders quickly assess whether the market is bullish, bearish, or neutral by synthesizing data from trend, momentum, volatility, and price action indicators. 🧠 How We Use It at Xuantify At @Xuantify , we integrate this indicator into our multi-layered strategy stack. It acts as a market context filter , helping us determine whether to engage in trend-following, mean-reversion, or stay on the sidelines. We use it across multiple timeframes to validate trade setups and avoid false signals during choppy conditions. This example uses MEXC:SOLUSDT.P , symbols like BINANCE:BTCUSDT or BINANCE:ETHUSDT are fine to use as well. ⭐ Key Features Sentiment Panel: Displays normalized sentiment scores from various indicators. Market Sentiment Meter: A synthesized score showing overall market bias. (Below image) Oscillator View: Visualizes trend strength, momentum, and potential reversals. Divergence Detection: Highlights when price action and sentiment diverge. Market Sentiment Meter: A synthesized score showing overall market bias. 💡 Benefits Compared to Other Indicators All-in-One : Combines multiple indicators into one cohesive tool. Noise Reduction : Filters out conflicting signals by averaging sentiment. Visual Clarity : Histogram and oscillator formats make interpretation intuitive. Adaptability : Works across assets and timeframes. ⚙️ Settings That Matter Smoothing Length: Adjusts how reactive the sentiment is to price changes. Indicator Weighting: Customize which indicators influence the sentiment more. Oscillator Sensitivity: Fine-tune for scalping vs. swing trading. 📊 Enhancing Signal Accuracy We pair this indicator with: Volume Profile: To confirm sentiment with institutional activity. VWAP: For intraday mean-reversion setups. Breakout Tools: To validate momentum during sentiment spikes. 🧩 Best Combinations with This Indicator LuxAlgo Premium Signals: For entry/exit confirmation. Relative Volume (RVOL): To gauge conviction behind sentiment shifts. ADX/DMI: To confirm trend strength when sentiment is extreme. ⚠️ What to Watch Out For Lag in Consolidation: Sentiment may flatten during sideways markets. Overfitting Settings: Avoid tweaking too much—stick to tested configurations. False Divergences: Always confirm with price structure or volume. 🚀 Final Thoughts The Market Sentiment Technicals indicator is a game-changer for traders who want a 360° view of market psychology . At Xuantify, it’s become a cornerstone of our decision-making process—especially in volatile conditions where clarity is key. 🔔 Follow us for more educational insights and strategy breakdowns! We break down tools like this weekly—follow @Xuantify to stay ahead of the curve.
Education
by Xuantify
Stop Hunting for Perfection - Start Managing Risk.Stop Hunting for Perfection — Start Managing Risk. Hard truth: Your obsession with perfect setups costs you money. Markets don't reward perfectionists; they reward effective risk managers. Here's why your perfect entry is killing your results: You ignore good trades waiting for ideal setups — they rarely come. You double-down on losing trades, convinced your entry was flawless. You're blindsided by normal market moves because you didn’t plan for imperfection. 🎯 Solution? Shift your focus from entry perfection to risk management. Define your maximum acceptable loss, stick to it, and scale into trades strategically. TrendGo wasn't built to promise perfect entries. It was built to clarify probabilities and structure risk. 🔍 Stop chasing unicorns. Focus on managing the horses you actually ride.
NYSE:CCJEducation
by TrendGo_Official
The SECRET is Compounding Tiny Objectives & Finding SatisfactionIn this video I talk about what I don't really find people talking about, which is how important it is to find satisfaction in your trading. When I say 'satisfaction', I am talking about the monetary kind. What do I mean by this? A problem I used to have in my earlier days was over-trading, revenge trading, blowing accounts, the usual story. I even had a decently high win-rate and I was good at understanding price. What I discovered was that I was not finding satisfaction because I was not risking enough on my trades. You see.. my strategy had a high win-rate with a positive R average, but the setups did not appear that often. Not as rare as a unicorn, but still, I'd have to sit around and wait and wait and wait. By the time my setup came, I put on a small risk, and I won small. Subconsciously, I found that quite frustrating, even though I was actually winning most of my trades. You can imagine how I felt when I lost a trade. I felt like I invested all that time for nothing. One could argue that I was being careful, but the problem was I was being too careful. I age the same as everyone else, and everyone else ages the same as me. I am investing my time into this strategy, time I will never get back. If I am not utilizing my time in relation to the earning potential, then that is a bad investment. Being a psychologically prone person, I made it a serious rule that all my criteria for my setup must be hit before I take that trade, no exceptions. I kept myself on the higher timeframes so that my mental state can safely process what I needed to process, whether it was analytical or just psychological. Another point was getting over what others were showcasing or doing. Material luxuries and large wins are all subjective things. It was frustrating seeing people trade every single day, most of them with green days. I felt like I had to do the same too to be a good trader. I was WRONG. What I actually need to do was make my system work for me, and that included how I implemented risk and what was satisfying enough for me to pursue. Like I said in the video, if what you want to do is not interesting or attractive to you, you won't want to do it. As long as what you want to do makes sense and isn't you trying to go from zero to a hundred in 2.5 seconds. As the title says, compound tiny objectives but make it satisfying in terms of risk and your time invested. - R2F Trading
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by Road_2_Funded
How to read market sentiment like a pro? 1️⃣ What Is Consumer Sentiment? Consumer sentiment reflects how optimistic or pessimistic people feel about their financial situation and the overall economy. It’s a measure of people’s willingness to spend money. When confidence is high, consumers tend to spend more. When it's low, they hold back. ✅ It helps anticipate shifts in market behavior ✅ Used as a macroeconomic signal for traders and investors ✅ Often treated like a leading indicator for the S&P 500 and other indices 2️⃣ Why Is Consumer Sentiment Important? The economy is largely driven by consumer spending. When people feel good about the economy, they: - Buy more products - Take on more debt - Invest in assets This behavior fuels business growth and market momentum. When sentiment drops, the opposite happens. Sentiment is not always perfect or predictive, but it increases the probability of price moves — and in trading, we always aim for higher probabilities, not certainties. 3️⃣ Types of Sentiment Indicators There are several forms of sentiment tracking: ✔️ Consumer Sentiment Index (e.g. University of Michigan) ✔️ News Sentiment (based on headline tone) ✔️ Market Sentiment Indicators (e.g. VIX, bond spreads) ✔️ Social/Headline Aggregators (e.g. AI-driven data that tracks public mood) ✔️ XLY/XLP what we have here Each has strengths and limitations. For example, consumer sentiment is slower to change but more reliable long-term. News sentiment can be noisy and volatile but responsive. 4️⃣ How to Use Consumer Sentiment Treat sentiment like a range or zone: - High sentiment = potential market tops (overconfidence) - Low sentiment = potential bottoms (fear and contraction) Look for divergences: - When sentiment is improving but markets are falling 👉 could signal a reversal - When sentiment is declining while markets are rising 👉 could suggest caution 🧠 Think in probabilities, not possibilities. Just because sentiment is high doesn’t guarantee a rally but it does increase the odds, especially when combined with other data. 5️⃣ Example Ratios: XLY vs XLP To break down consumer sentiment further, traders sometimes compare two: XLY (Consumer Discretionary): Companies people spend money on when they feel confident (e.g. Amazon, Tesla) XLP (Consumer Staples): Essential goods people buy regardless of economy (e.g. Walmart, Procter & Gamble) If XLY/XLP is rising: consumer confidence is likely improving If XLY/XLP is falling: sentiment is likely weakening This ratio helps gauge spending behavior and risk appetite in a more visual, trackable way. 6️⃣ Limitations of Consumer Sentiment ⚠️ Not always aligned with price action in short-term ⚠️ Lagging data depending on source ⚠️ Can be influenced by temporary events (e.g. political shifts, news headlines) ⚠️ Doesn’t work well alone should be used with technical and fundamental analysis 7️⃣ Final Thoughts Consumer sentiment is one of the most powerful but often overlooked indicators. It doesn’t tell you exactly what will happen, but it gives important context: ✅ Where we are in the economic cycle ✅ How confident people are in spending ✅ When the market may be out of sync with the real world Use sentiment tools to build a higher-probability picture of what’s next. Combine them with price action, macro analysis, and volume-based tools for a more complete view.
AMEX:XLYEducation
by Risk_Adj_Return
Building Liquidity: What It Really Means🔵 Building Liquidity: What it really means Professional traders often need liquidity (buyers and sellers) to enter/exit large positions without moving the market too much. This means manipulating the market within a pre-determined range, which serves as the operating center for everything that follows. 🔹 How is liquidity built Price Ranging: Sideways consolidation before big moves attracts both buyers and sellers. False Breakouts (Stop hunts): Price may briefly break support/resistance to trigger retail stop-losses and fill institutional orders. News Timing: Pro traders often execute during or just before major news when volatility brings liquidity. 🔹 How can you spot a Liquidity-building zone 🔸 Volume Unusual spikes in volume: Often indicate institutional activity. Volume clusters at ranges or breakouts: Suggest accumulation/distribution zones. Volume with price divergence: Price rises but volume falls = possible exhaustion. Volume rises and price consolidates = potential accumulation. 🔸 Price Action Order Blocks / Imbalance zones: Sharp moves followed by consolidations are often pro trader footprints. Break of Structure (BoS): Institutions often reverse trends by breaking previous highs/lows. Liquidity sweeps: Price moves aggressively above resistance or below support then reverses = stop-loss hunting. 🔸 News Reaction Watch pre-news volume spikes. Look for contrarian moves after news — when price moves opposite to expected direction, it often reveals smart money traps. Analyze price stability post-news — slow movement shows absorption by pros. Wick traps and reversals around news events = stop hunting. 🔸 Narrative is Everything Higher timeframe trends show intent. Lower timeframes show execution zones. Look for alignment between timeframes in a specific direction. 🔹 Why do whales move the market in an orderly manner To fill large positions at optimal prices. To create liquidity where there is none. To trap retail on the wrong side of the move. To trap other whales on the wrong side of this move. To rebalance portfolios around economic cycles/news. 🔹 Professionals never forget what they've built When you track price, volume, and news, you’ll find specific bars that form areas that are the foundation for the short-term direction. This is pure VPA/VSA logic, the interplay of Price Analysis ,Volume Analysis and News, where each bar is not just a bar , but a clue in the story that professionals are writing. When you monitor volume, price, and news together and perform multi-timeframe analysis, it becomes clear what the whales are doing, and why. 🔹 From the chart above The market reached a weekly resistance level and then pulled back slightly after whales triggered the stop-losses of breakout traders. Prior to the breakout, whales had accumulated positions by creating a series of liquidity-rich buying zones on the daily timeframe. It's essential to understand the broader context before choosing to participate alongside them—whether you're planning to buy or sell. 🔴 Tips Use volume and price analysis together, not separately. Monitor any unusual volume bars before economic market news. Monitor news and volatility spikes to detect traps and entries. Combine this with liquidity zones (support/resistance clusters). Build a "narrative" per week: What is smart money trying to do? A smart trader understands the tactics whales use, and knows how to navigate around them.
COINBASE:BTCUSDEducation
by AlgoFuego
Learn What is TRAILING STOP LOSS | Risk Management Basics In the today's article, we will discuss a trailing stop loss. I will explain to you its concept in simple words and share real market examples. 🛑Trailing stop loss is a risk management tool that allows to protect unrealized profits of an active trading position as long as the price moves in the desired direction. Traditionally, traders trade with fixed stop loss and take profit. Following such an approach, one knows exactly the level where the trade will be closed in a profit and the level where it will be closed in a loss. Take a look at a long trade on USDCAD above. The trade has fixed TP Level - 1.354 and fixed SL Level - 1.341. Once one of these levels is reached, the trade will be closed. Even though the majority of the traders stick to fixed sl and tp, there is one important disadvantage of such an approach – substantial gains could be easily missed . After the market reached TP in USDCAD trade, the price temporarily dropped, then a strong bullish rally initiated and the price went way above the Take Profit level. Potential gains with that long position could be much bigger. Trailing stop solves that issue. With a trailing stop loss, the trader usually opens the trade with Stop Loss and WITHOUT Take Profit. Take a look at a long trade on USDCHF. Trader expects growth, he opens a long position and sets stop loss – 0.8924, while take profit level is not determined. With a trailing stop loss, the trader usually opens the trade with Stop Loss and WITHOUT Take Profit. As the market starts growing, one decides not to close the trade in profit, but modify stop loss – trail it to the level above the entry. As the market keeps rallying, one TRAILS a stop loss in the direction of the market, protecting the unrealized gains. When the market finally starts falling, the price hits stop loss and a trader closes the trade in a substantial profit. The main obstacle with the application of a trailing stop is to keep it at a distance from current price levels that is not too narrow nor too wide. With a wide stop loss distance, substantial unrealized gains might be washed out with the market reversal. Imagine you predicted a nice bullish rally on Bitcoin. The market bounced nicely after you opened a long position. Trailing stop loss too far from current price levels, all the gains could be easily wiped out. While with a narrow trailing stop distance, one can be stop hunted before the move in the desired direction continues. A trader opens a long trade on EURJPY and the price bounces perfectly as predicted. One immediately trails the stop loss. However, the distance between current prices was too narrow and the position was closed after a pullback. And then market went much higher. In conclusion, I want to note that fixed SL & TP approach is not bad , it is different and for some trading strategies it will be more appropriate. However, because of its limitations, occasionally big moves will be missed. Try trailing stop by your own, combine it with your strategy and I hope that you will make a lot of money with that! ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Warren Buffett's Approach to Long-Term Wealth BuildingUnderstanding Value Investing: Warren Buffett's Educational Approach to Long-Term Wealth Building Learn the educational principles behind value investing and dollar-cost averaging strategies, based on historical market data and Warren Buffett's documented investment philosophy. --- Introduction: The Million-Dollar Question Every Investor Asks Warren Buffett—the Oracle of Omaha—has consistently advocated that index fund investing provides a simple, educational approach to long-term wealth building for most investors. His famous 2007 bet against hedge funds proved this principle in dramatic fashion: Buffett wagered $1 million that a basic S&P 500 index fund would outperform a collection of hedge funds over 10 years. He crushed them. The S&P 500 returned 7.1% annually while the hedge funds averaged just 2.2%. Today, we'll explore the educational principles behind this approach—examining historical data, mathematical concepts, and implementation strategies for learning purposes. --- Part 1: Understanding Value Investing for Modern Markets Value investing isn't about finding the next GameStop or Tesla. It's about buying quality assets at attractive prices and holding them for compound growth . For beginners, this translates to: Broad Market Exposure: Own a cross-section of businesses through low-cost index funds Long-term Perspective: Think decades, not months Disciplined Approach: Systematic investing regardless of market noise "Time is the friend of the wonderful business, the enemy of the mediocre." - Warren Buffett Real-World Application: Instead of trying to pick between NASDAQ:AAPL , NASDAQ:MSFT , or NASDAQ:GOOGL , you simply buy AMEX:SPY (SPDR S&P 500 ETF) and own pieces of all 500 companies automatically. --- Part 2: Dollar-Cost Averaging - Your Secret Weapon Against Market Timing The Problem: Everyone tries to time the market. Studies show that even professional investors get this wrong 70% of the time. The Solution: Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) eliminates timing risk entirely. How DCA Works: Decide on your total investment amount (e.g., $24,000) Split it into equal parts (e.g., 12 months = $2,000/month) Invest the same amount on the same day each month Ignore market fluctuations completely DCA in Action - Real Example: Let's say you started DCA into AMEX:SPY in January 2022 (right before the bear market): January 2022: AMEX:SPY at $450 → You buy $1,000 worth (2.22 shares) June 2022: AMEX:SPY at $380 → You buy $1,000 worth (2.63 shares) December 2022: AMEX:SPY at $385 → You buy $1,000 worth (2.60 shares) Result: Your average cost per share was $405, significantly better than the $450 you would have paid with a lump sum in January. --- Part 3: The Mathematics of Wealth Creation Here's where value investing gets exciting. Let's run the actual numbers using historical S&P 500 returns: Historical Performance: - Average Annual Return: 10.3% (1957-2023) - Inflation-Adjusted: ~6-7% real returns - Conservative Estimate: 8% for planning purposes Scenario 1: The $24K Start Initial Investment: $24,000 | Annual Addition: $2,400 | Return: 8% Calculation Summary: - Initial Investment: $24,000 - Annual Contribution: $2,400 ($200/month) - Expected Return: 8% - Time Period: 20 years Results: - Year 10 Balance: $86,581 - Year 20 Balance: $221,692 - Total Contributed: $72,000 - Investment Gains: $149,692 Scenario 2: The Aggressive Investor Initial Investment: $60,000 | Annual Addition: $6,000 | Return: 10% Historical example after 20 years: $747,300 - Total Contributed: $180,000 - Calculated Investment Gains: $567,300 Educational Insight on Compound Returns: This historical example illustrates how 2% higher returns (10% vs 8%) could dramatically impact long-term outcomes. This is why even small differences in return rates can create life-changing wealth over decades. The mathematics of compound growth are both simple and incredibly powerful. --- Part 4: Investing vs. Savings - The Shocking Truth Let's compare the same contributions invested in stocks vs. a high-yield savings account: 20-Year Comparison: - Stock Investment (8% return): $221,692 - High-Yield Savings (5% return): $143,037 - Difference: $78,655 (55% more wealth!) "Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it... he who doesn't, pays it." - Often attributed to Einstein Key Insight: That extra 3% annual return created an additional $78,655 over 20 years. Over 30-40 years, this difference becomes truly life-changing. 📍 Global Savings Reality - The Investment Advantage Worldwide: The power of index fund investing becomes even more dramatic when we examine savings rates around the world. Here's how the same $24K initial + $2,400 annual investment compares globally: 🇯🇵 Japan (0.5% savings): - Stock Investment: $221,692 - Savings Account: $76,868 - Advantage: $144,824 (188% more wealth) 🇪🇺 Western Europe Average (3% savings): - Stock Investment: $221,692 - Savings Account: $107,834 - Advantage: $113,858 (106% more wealth) 🇬🇷 Greece/Southern Europe (2% savings): - Stock Investment: $221,692 - Savings Account: $93,975 - Advantage: $127,717 (136% more wealth) 🇰🇷 South Korea (2.5% savings): - Stock Investment: $221,692 - Savings Account: $100,634 - Advantage: $121,058 (120% more wealth) 💡 The Global Lesson: The lower your country's savings rates, the MORE dramatic the advantage of global index fund investing becomes. For investors in countries with minimal savings returns, staying in cash is essentially guaranteed wealth destruction when compared to broad market investing. This is exactly why Warren Buffett's advice transcends borders - mathematical principles of compound growth work the same whether you're in New York, London, or Athens. Note: Savings rates shown are approximate regional averages and may vary by institution and current market conditions. Always check current rates in your specific market for precise calculations. --- Part 5: Building Your Value Investing Portfolio Core Holdings (80% of portfolio): AMEX:SPY - S&P 500 ETF (Large-cap US stocks) AMEX:VTI - Total Stock Market ETF (Broader US exposure) LSE:VUAA - S&P 500 UCITS Accumulating (Tax-efficient for international investors) Satellite Holdings (20% of portfolio): NASDAQ:QQQ - Technology-focused (Higher growth potential) AMEX:VYM - Dividend-focused (Income generation) NYSE:BRK.B - Berkshire Hathaway (Value investing & diversification) --- Part 6: Implementation Strategy - Your Action Plan Month 1: Foundation Open a brokerage account (research low-cost brokers available in your region) Set up automatic transfers from your bank Buy your first AMEX:SPY shares 💡 Broker Selection Considerations: Traditional Brokers: Interactive Brokers, Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab Digital Platforms: Revolut, Trading 212, eToro (check availability in your country) Key Factors: Low fees, ETF access, automatic investing features, regulatory protection Research: Compare costs and features for your specific location/needs Month 2-12: Execution Invest the same amount on the same day each month Ignore market news and volatility Track your progress in a simple spreadsheet Year 2+: Optimization Increase contributions with salary increases Consider additional core holdings like LSE:VUAA for tax efficiency Consider tax-loss harvesting opportunities Visualizing Your DCA Strategy Understanding DCA concepts is easier when you can visualize the results. TradingView offers various tools to help you understand investment strategies, including DCA tracking indicators like the DCA Investment Tracker Pro which help visualize long-term investment concepts. 🎯 Key Visualization Features: These types of tools typically help visualize: Historical Analysis: How your strategy would have performed using real market data Growth Projections: Educational scenarios showing potential long-term outcomes Performance Comparison: Comparing actual vs theoretical DCA performance Volatility Understanding: How different stocks behave with DCA over time 📊 Real-World Examples from Live Users: Stable Index Investing Success: AMEX:SPY (S&P 500) Example: $60K initial + $500/month starting 2020. The indicator shows SPY's historical 10%+ returns, demonstrating how consistent broad market investing builds wealth over time. Notice the smooth theoretical growth line vs actual performance tracking. Value Investing Approach: NYSE:BRK.B (Berkshire Hathaway): Warren Buffett's legendary performance through DCA lens. The indicator demonstrates how quality value companies compound wealth over decades. Lower volatility = standard CAGR calculations used. High-Volatility Stock Management: NASDAQ:NVDA (NVIDIA): Shows smart volatility detection in action. NVIDIA's explosive AI boom creates extreme years that trigger automatic switch to "Median (High Vol): 50%" calculations for conservative projections, protecting against unrealistic future estimates. Tech Stock Long-Term Analysis: NASDAQ:META (Meta Platforms): Despite being a tech stock and experiencing the 2022 crash, META's 10-year history shows consistent enough performance (23.98% CAGR) that volatility detection doesn't trigger. Standard CAGR calculations demonstrate stable long-term growth. ⚡ Educational Application: When using visualization tools on TradingView: Select Your Asset: Choose the stock/ETF you want to analyze (like AMEX:SPY ) Input Parameters: Enter your investment amounts and time periods Study Historical Data: See how your strategy would have performed in real markets Understand Projections: Learn from educational growth scenarios 🎓 Educational Benefits: This tool helps you understand: - How compound growth actually works in real markets - The difference between volatile and stable investment returns - Why consistent DCA often outperforms timing strategies - How your current performance compares to historical market patterns - The visual power of long-term wealth building As Warren Buffett said: "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." This tool helps you visualize your financial tree growing over time through actual market data and educational projections. --- Part 7: Common Mistakes to Avoid The "Perfect Timing" Trap Waiting for the "perfect" entry point often means missing years of compound growth. Time in the market beats timing the market. The "Hot Stock" Temptation Chasing individual stocks like NASDAQ:NVDA or NASDAQ:TSLA might seem exciting, but it introduces unnecessary risk for beginners. The "Market Crash" Panic Every bear market feels like "this time is different." Historical data shows that patient investors who continued their DCA through 2008, 2020, and other crashes were handsomely rewarded. --- Conclusion: Your Path to Financial Freedom Value investing through broad index funds and dollar-cost averaging isn't glamorous. You won't get rich overnight, and you won't have exciting stories about your latest trade. But here's what you will have: Proven strategy backed by decades of data Peace of mind during market volatility Compound growth working in your favor 24/7 A realistic path to serious wealth creation The Bottom Line: Warren Buffett's approach works because it's simple, sustainable, and based on fundamental economic principles. Start today, stay consistent, and let compound growth do the heavy lifting. "Someone's sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago." - Warren Buffett Educational Summary: Understanding these principles provides a foundation for informed decision-making. As Warren Buffett noted: "The best time to plant a tree was 20 years ago. The second-best time is now" - emphasizing the educational value of understanding long-term investment principles early. --- 🙏 Personal Note & Acknowledgment This article was not entirely my own work, but the result of artificial intelligence in-depth research and information gathering. I fine-tuned and brought it to my own vision and ideas. While working with AI, I found this research so valuable for myself that I could not avoid sharing it with all of you. I hope this perspective gives you a different approach to long-term investing. It completely changed my style of thinking and my approach to the markets. As a father of 3 kids, I'm always seeking the best investment strategies for our future. While I was aware of the power of compound interest, I could never truly visualize its actual power. That's exactly why I also created the open-source DCA Investment Tracker Pro indicator - so everyone can see and visualize the benefits of choosing a long, steady investment approach. Being able to see compound growth in action makes all the difference in staying committed to a strategy. As someone truly said: compound interest is the 8th wonder of the world. --- Disclaimer: This article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions.
AMEX:SPYEducation
by TradeVizion
The Power of Round Numbers in TradingHello, traders! 👀 Do you know why $10K matters more than $10,137.42? You’ve probably noticed it — even if you’re not watching the chart all day. Whenever Bitcoin approaches $10,000, $20,000, or $100,000, something shifts. Volatility spikes. X (formerly known as Twitter) goes wild. And traders tighten their stops. That’s not a coincidence. It’s the psychology of crypto trading, and few things trigger it more than round numbers in trading. 🎯 Why Round Numbers Act Like Magnets In both traditional and crypto markets, clean figures like $1.00, $100, $10K, $100K aren’t just visual milestones. They’re emotional ones too. And that’s where crypto market psychology kicks in. Why? People, especially traders, think in psychological numbers. Retail traders place limit orders near neat levels like $25,000 or $30,000 (not $24,837.65). Institutions often set stop-losses or triggers around these zones. Media headlines focus on thresholds: “BTC Hits $100K” hits harder than “BTC breaks $99,800.” These collective habits cluster orders and attention around these levels, making them support/resistance zones through pure crowd behavior. That’s crypto psychology at work. 🧠 Support, Resistance, and Psychological Warfare Let’s say BTC approaches $30,000 from below. Here’s what the crypto psychology chart tends to show: retail optimism takes off: “If we break 30K, next stop is 100K BTC!” Smart money takes profit: Short sellers loooove round numbers. Choppy price action: Emotional trading dominates near psychological zones. This makes psychological numbers in trading incredibly sticky. They become decision-making triggers. A move above a considerable number might create FOMO. A rejection just below it might trigger panic selling or trap breakouts. That’s why psychological numbers in day trading (and longer-term moves) aren’t just fluff; they’re real and show up repeatedly. 🔁 Real Examples of Round Number Power in Crypto $10,000: Held BTC back in 2017 and 2019 — until it didn't. Once broken, it opened the floodgates. $20,000: A brutal resistance for years — finally broken in 2020. The price exploded afterward. $30,000: Became major support during the 2021 bull run. Once it collapsed, BTC slid toward $15K. $100,000: The ultimate mental level. Traders still ask: “When will Bitcoin hit 100K?” or even “Did Bitcoin hit 100K yet?” The answer? Yes! But every move toward it creates a wave of interest, and sometimes fear. Some already speculate: “Will Bitcoin crash at 110K?” It’s clear: round levels shape crypto trading psychology, and BTC 100K is more than a price — it’s a narrative. That’s the essence of what psychological numbers are in trading — they’re not technical but emotional. 💬 Final Thought: What’s Your 100K? For some, 100K BTC is a moonshot. For others, it’s a trap waiting to happen. So the next time Bitcoin approaches a clean round number, ask yourself: Is this price important or just a number that feels important? Let us know how psychological numbers in trading shape your strategies 👇
Education
by WhiteBIT
Harmonic AB=CD Pattern Guide for TradingViewThe Harmonic AB=CD pattern is a powerful technical analysis tool used to predict price reversals in financial markets. Based on Fibonacci ratios, it helps traders identify high-probability entry and exit points. This concise guide is designed for TradingView users to apply the pattern effectively. Pattern Overview - Structure: Four points (A, B, C, D). AB and CD legs are equal in length or follow Fibonacci ratios. - Fibonacci Ratios: - BC retraces 61.8%-78.6% of AB. - CD equals AB (1:1) or extends 1.272/1.618 of BC. - Types: - Bullish: Signals a buy at point D (price rises). - Bearish: Signals a sell at point D (price falls). How to Identify and Trade 1. Spot AB: Find a clear price swing from A to B. 2. Measure BC: Use TradingView’s Fibonacci Retracement tool to confirm BC retraces 61.8%-78.6% of AB. 3. Project CD: Use Fibonacci Extension to project CD, matching AB’s length or extending 1.272/1.618 of BC. 4. Confirm D: Check for confluence with support/resistance, candlestick patterns (e.g., doji), or indicators (e.g., RSI divergence). 5. Trade Execution: - Bullish: Buy at D, set stop-loss below D, target point C or A. - Bearish: Sell at D, set stop-loss above D, target point C or A. Tips for TradingView - Use TradingView’s Fib tools for precision. - Confirm signals with additional indicators (e.g., MACD, volume). - Avoid choppy markets; focus on trending or range-bound charts. The AB=CD pattern is a reliable method for spotting reversals when used with proper confirmation. By mastering Fibonacci tools on TradingView and combining the pattern with other signals, traders can enhance their decision-making and improve trade outcomes. Practice on historical charts to build confidence.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Henrybillion
Not Every Candle Needs a Reaction — I Know I’ve GrownThere was a time I thought I needed to react to every move. A clean candle? I’d enter. A minor imbalance? I’d take the risk. A zone that “looked okay”? I’d justify it. Why? Because I was chasing something. Chasing certainty . Chasing profit . Chasing control . But here’s the thing I didn’t understand back then: Not every candle needs a reaction. And not every move is my move. 🧠 Overtrading Wasn’t a Strategy. It Was a Symptom. It was a symptom of fear — fear of missing out (FOMO). It was a symptom of insecurity — not trusting my own process. It was a symptom of impatience — not letting the market come to me. I confused activity with progress. I thought being busy on the charts meant I was becoming better. But most of the time, I was just bleeding my edge. 💡 The Turning Point Growth didn’t happen because I learned a new indicator. It happened the moment I started asking myself: Is this my setup? Or am I just bored, hopeful, or triggered? When you define a clear trading plan, with criteria you believe in, the real test isn’t finding setups...it’s waiting for the right ones. Today, I can watch the market move beautifully without me and feel absolutely nothing. That’s freedom. That’s growth. That’s power. 🧘🏽‍♂️ From Reactive to Intentional Now, I focus on: Waiting for my specific SMC criteria to line up Sticking to my CRT model (PDL/PWH sweep → BOS → FVG) Trusting that missing one trade means nothing if I stay consistent Letting the market come to me I’m no longer in the game to prove something. I’m here to play my edge , manage my risk , and protect my mind. 📌 Final Words Growth in trading isn't loud. It doesn’t scream from a winning streak. It shows up quietly: in the trades you didn’t take. in the silence between setups. in the patience to do nothing until it’s time. So if you’re not constantly in a trade, that’s not weakness that’s wisdom.
Education
by J4mesWick
Why Higher Timeframe Analysis Increases Your WIN-RATE!Many traders focus too heavily on lower timeframes, chasing setups without any real context. But what if the secret to improving your consistency was as simple as zooming out? In this video, we break down why analyzing higher timeframes—and trading in their direction—can significantly increase your win rate across Forex, crypto, stocks, and futures. This isn’t just a theory. It’s a principle used by institutional traders, prop firms, and consistently profitable independent traders. ✅ Here’s what you’ll learn in this deep-dive: The real purpose of higher timeframe analysis and how it acts like a GPS for your trading decisions. How to identify structure, liquidity, and key levels on the daily, 4H, and weekly charts Why trading against the higher timeframe flow often leads to premature stop-outs or fakeouts The power of multi-timeframe alignment: how to sync HTF bias with LTF entries How trading with higher timeframe momentum helps filter noise, reduce overtrading, and increase conviction A walkthrough example showing how to use HTF context to validate a lower timeframe setup Whether you're trading ICT concepts, Fibs, RSI, VWAP, or your own system—this principle applies. Trading in alignment with the higher timeframe doesn’t just increase your odds, it adds structure, patience, and confidence to your process. 📌 Key takeaway: When you understand what the market is doing on the higher timeframe, you stop guessing and start positioning yourself with the move—not against it. 🛠️ Helpful for traders using: Smart money concepts (SMC) ICT-based models (like AMD, OTE, and NDOG) Supply and demand strategies Price action or indicator-based systems PRACTICALLY ANY TYPE OF STRATEGY OR METHODOLOGY So, I hope the video was insightful for you. Let me know if you apply higher timeframe analysis, and how it has helped you. - R2F Trading
Education
by Road_2_Funded
What are Harmonic Price Patterns?Harmonic price patterns are chart patterns based on Fibonacci ratios and market geometry, used to identify potential reversal points in Forex. They rely on Fibonacci levels (e.g., 0.618, 0.786, 1.618) to measure price structures, predicting reversal zones (PRZ - Potential Reversal Zone). Key Features: - Based on Fibonacci ratios. - Geometric structure with 4-5 points (X, A, B, C, D). - Identifies PRZ for buy/sell opportunities. - Symmetrical, reflecting market psychology. Key Harmonic Patterns in Forex: 1. Gartley: - AB retraces 61.8% of XA. - D at 78.6% of XA. - Buy/sell at D. 2. Bat: - AB retraces 38.2-50% of XA. - D at 88.6% of XA. - High-precision at D. 3. Crab: - CD extends 161.8% of XA. - D at extreme levels. - Suited for strong volatility. 4. Butterfly: - AB retraces 78.6% of XA. - D extends 127-161.8% of XA. - End of strong trends. 5. Shark: - AB retraces 113-161.8% of XA. - D at 88.6-113% of XA. - Volatile markets. 6. Cypher: - CD retraces 78.6% of XC. - Short-term timeframes. How to Use: 1. Measure Fibonacci ratios to identify the pattern. 2. Locate PRZ at D, combine with support/resistance, RSI, or candlestick patterns. 3. Set stop-loss beyond PRZ, aim for risk/reward ≥ 1:2. 4. Enter trades at D after price/indicator confirmation. Notes: - Requires precise measurements. - Combine with other tools for reliability. - Practice on a demo account first. - Avoid during high-volatility events (e.g., news releases). Let me know if you need details on a specific pattern!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Henrybillion
What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern: Meaning & Trading?What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern, and How Can You Trade It? In the world of technical analysis, candlestick patterns play a vital role in helping traders decipher market trends and potential reversals. Among the many setups, the hanging man holds particular significance. This distinctive formation captures traders' attention as it often serves as a warning sign of a possible trend reversal. This article will go through the technical analysis of the hanging man formation and explain how traders can trade with it. What Is a Hanging Man Pattern? The hanging man candlestick pattern is characterised by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging from its head, hence the name "Hanging Man." Psychology Behind the Hanging Man The psychology behind the hanging man candlestick pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment. After a sustained uptrend, the appearance of this pattern indicates that buyers are losing momentum. The long lower shadow shows that sellers were able to push prices down significantly during the trading session. Although buyers managed to drive prices back up, the close near the open price suggests weakening bullish sentiment. This pattern signals that selling pressure is increasing, potentially leading to a bearish reversal as confidence among buyers diminishes. The hanging man is a versatile formation that can be applied across a wide range of financial instruments, including stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, indices, and forex, on different timeframes. Identifying a Hanging Man Candlestick on Trading Charts To spot a hanging man pattern in stocks and other financial instruments, you may follow these key steps: Look for an existing uptrend: Start by identifying a prevailing upward price movement on the chart. Locate a candlestick with specific characteristics: Search for a candlestick with a small body near the top, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. This formation resembles a figure hanging from its head. The colour of the candle doesn’t matter, but if it’s bearish, the signal is stronger. Consider supporting indicators: Utilise other technical indicators or oscillators to further validate the potential reversal. These can include trendlines, moving averages, or momentum indicators that align with the bearish interpretation. Note that there is no such thing as an inverted hanging man candlestick or a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern. Trading the Hanging Man Pattern Those trading the hanging man reversal pattern need to apply a systematic approach in order to increase the likelihood of successful trades. Here are a few steps traders usually follow to trade this pattern: - Identification: Identify the setup by using the steps mentioned above. - Look for confirmation signals: The setup alone is not sufficient for making trading decisions. Seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns or technical indicators. This can include bearish candlestick patterns (e.g. bearish engulfing or shooting star), a breach of support levels, or the convergence of other indicators signalling a potential reversal. - Define your entry point: An entry point can be either when the next candlestick confirms the bearish sentiment or when the price breaches a significant support level. - Consider risk management: Assess the risk-reward ratio of the trade and ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance. For efficient risk management, you may adjust your position size accordingly. Risk management tools like position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversification may help protect your capital. You may set a stop-loss order above the hanging man pattern to limit potential losses if the trade goes against you. - Identify profit targets: The candlestick itself doesn't provide specific targets. Traders can identify profit targets by looking at previous support levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or other technical analysis tools like moving averages or pivot points. - Monitor the trade: Keep a close eye on your position as it progresses. Pay attention to any changes in market conditions or additional signals that may invalidate the trade. - Learn from outcomes: Regardless of the outcome of the trade, analyse it afterwards to identify areas for improvement. Assess whether the setup provided accurate signals and identify any factors that may have affected its success. This analysis will help refine your trading strategy over time. Live Market Example Consider the example of a hanging man on the forex USDJPY pair. An entry is placed on the next bearish candlestick with a stop loss just above the hanging man. The take profit order is at the next level of support marked by the orange line. Limitations of the Hanging Man Candlestick The hanging man candlestick pattern, while useful, has certain limitations that traders need to consider: - False Signals: The hanging man can produce false signals, especially in volatile markets where price movements are erratic. - Market Context: The effectiveness of the pattern varies depending on the broader market context and prevailing trends. - Timeframe Sensitivity: Its reliability can differ across various timeframes; what works on a daily chart may not be as effective on an intraday chart. - Not Standalone: It should not be used in isolation but as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes other indicators and risk management tools. Comparing the Hanging Man to Similar Candles Understanding how the hanging man pattern differs from similar candlestick patterns helps in accurate technical analysis. Here's a brief comparison of the hanging man with related patterns. What Is the Difference Between a Hanging Man and a Hammer? Both have the same candle structure. However, the hanging man candlestick occurs in an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, while the hammer occurs in a downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Interestingly, it is possible to see a hanging man candlestick in a downtrend, often as part of a bullish retracement. Both candles require confirmation from subsequent price movements. They should be analysed within the context of the overall market trend and other technical indicators. What Is the Difference Between a Pin Bar and a Hanging Man? A pin bar and a hanging man are both single-candlestick patterns with small bodies and long shadows, but they serve different purposes in technical analysis. The pin bar has a small body and a long tail, indicating a reversal, but it can appear in any market condition. Its long tail shows a strong rejection of a certain price level, with the body pointing in the direction of the anticipated reversal. The hanging man, however, specifically occurs after an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, characterised by a small body at the top and a long lower shadow, indicating selling pressure. What Is the Difference Between a Shooting Star and a Hanging Man Candlestick? The shooting star and the hanging man are both bearish reversal patterns, but they differ in their appearance and context. A shooting star occurs after an uptrend and features a small body at the bottom with a long upper shadow, indicating that the price was pushed up significantly but fell back down, showing strong selling pressure. The hanging man also appears after an uptrend but has a small body at the top with a long lower shadow, suggesting that sellers dominated the session despite an initial push by buyers. Both require confirmation from subsequent candlesticks to validate the reversal. Final Thoughts While the hanging man alone is insufficient for making trading decisions, it serves as a warning signal that buyers may be losing control and that selling pressure could increase. Traders seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns, support and resistance levels, and other technical indicators to validate the potential reversal. By understanding the implications of the setup within the broader market context and employing proper risk management strategies, traders can enhance their decision-making process and improve their chances of identifying different trading opportunities. FAQ What Does the Hanging Man Pattern Indicate? The hanging man trading pattern in technical analysis typically indicates a potential trend reversal in an uptrend. It suggests that the buyers, who have been driving the market higher, are losing control, and the selling pressure may increase. The hanging man is represented by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging by the neck. This visual representation conveys the potential bearish sentiment. Can a Hanging Man Candle Be Bullish? No, there is no such thing as a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern. The bearish hanging man pattern indicates a potential trend reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. Is the Hanging Man Pattern Reliable? The reliability of the formation, like any candlestick pattern, can vary depending on several factors. While the setup is widely recognised and considered a potential bearish reversal signal, it should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is crucial to consider other factors and confirmation signals to increase its reliability. What Is the Confirmation Candle for the Hanging Man? A confirmation candle for the hanging man is a bearish candlestick that follows the pattern, confirming the reversal. This can include a bearish engulfing candle or a candlestick closing well below the hanging man's body, indicating increased selling pressure. Is the Hanging Man Pattern Bearish? Yes, it is generally considered a bearish pattern in technical analysis. It is formed when the price’s open or close is near or at its high, there is a significant decline during the trading session, and it closes not far from the opening price. The pattern resembles a hanging man with his legs dangling. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Stock market cycles & liquidity, understand it all in 3 minutesLiquidity is a key factor in market finance. Without it, risky assets in the stock market, equities and cryptocurrencies lose their fuel. Over the cycles, one thing has become clear: the direction of financial markets is strongly correlated with that of global liquidity. But liquidity is not a single indicator: it is organized into three complementary layers. Understanding these layers enables us to better anticipate major trends. Level 1 is global monetary liquidity (M2). Level 2 concerns net liquidity within the financial system, and level 3 encompasses overall macro-liquidity, through activity and credit indicators. Together, these three dimensions form the markets' “bloodstream”. The chart below compares the S&P 500 trend with the global money supply M2 Level 1: Global monetary liquidity (global M2) The first stage of the rocket: global M2. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy. This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and American dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side). But beyond the absolute level, it is above all the momentum of M2, its first derivative (annual variation), that serves as a compass. An uptrend coupled with positive momentum strongly favours risky assets. Conversely, stagnation or a negative divergence between trend and momentum (as at the end of 2021) anticipates a contraction in valuations. Over this cycle, there is even a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between global M2 and Bitcoin, projected 12 weeks into the future: liquidity leads, markets follow. Level 2: Net liquidity of the financial system The second level is more subtle, but just as decisive: net liquidity within the financial system. This is the effective credit capacity, i.e. the funds actually available to irrigate the real economy after withdrawals, excess reserves and regulatory mechanisms. Unlike M2, this measure does not reflect gross liquidity, but rather the liquidity “actionable” by financial institutions. In the United States, this net liquidity depends, among other things, on FED mechanisms such as the reverse repo program (RRP), which temporarily sucks in or releases liquidity, and on the level of banks' excess reserves. Its evolution is strongly linked to the central bank's restrictive or accommodating monetary policy, QE cycles and QT cycles. The correlation of this net liquidity with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, although slightly lower than that of global M2, remains significant. It acts as a filter for gross liquidity: even if M2 is high, if credit capacity is blocked by excessively high rates or constrained reserves, the impact on markets can be neutralized. Level 3: Global macro liquidity Finally, the third level: global macro liquidity. It includes barometers of economic conditions that directly influence risk perception and investor appetite: PMI indices (manufacturing and services), credit conditions, employment levels, default rates, etc. It is less monetary, more conjunctural. It is less monetary, more cyclical, but its impact is real, as it shapes the context in which financial liquidity is expressed. It is this level that contextualizes the first two: a rising M2 in a deteriorating economic environment (PMI below 50, falling employment) may have a limited effect. Conversely, signs of economic recovery may reinforce the transmission of liquidity to the markets. In this sense, the timing of the FED's rate cuts becomes a key macro catalyst. As long as US policy remains restrictive, M2 will plateau and net liquidity will remain constrained, even if the ECB or PBoC relax their conditions. Conclusion: Global liquidity cannot be summed up in a single indicator. It's an ecosystem structured on three levels: global gross liquidity (M2), effective credit capacity (ECC) and net liquidity. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Swissquote
How to use VWAP the right-way on TradingView 1️⃣ What Is VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)? VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. It's a tool that shows the average price an asset has traded at throughout the day, adjusted for volume. That means it gives more weight to prices with high trading volume. ✅ It helps traders and investors see if the current price is above or below the average price paid. ✅ It’s often used by institutional traders, such as mutual funds and pension funds, to enter and exit positions without causing major price moves. VWAP = (Sum of Price * Volume) / Total Volume 2️⃣ Why VWAP Matters I (Traders) often use VWAP as a dynamic support or resistance zone. - Price below VWAP: considered undervalued by some 👉 may act as support - Price above VWAP: considered overvalued 👉 may act as resistance It acts like a magnet for price, especially in trending markets. VWAP is also used as a benchmark for large players want to buy below VWAP or sell above it. 3️⃣ Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) Anchored VWAP is a more advanced version of VWAP. Instead of starting at the market open, you anchor it to a specific candle (pivot high or low). 🔍 Why use it: - Lets you analyze the average price from key market turning points - Helps spot institutional interest near pivots - More accurate for swing trading When you anchor VWAP to a major high or low, it gives you clean zones where smart money might enter or exit. 4️⃣ How I Use Anchored VWAP I personally anchor VWAP from: - Major pivot highs/lows - Breakout points - Strong reversal candles Then I watch how price interacts with it. ✅ Works well on 30m and 4H charts for intraday or swing setups ✅ Can be combined with fixed range volume profile for extra confluence If you haven’t read my guide on fixed range volume profile, scroll below — it’s linked there. 5️⃣ Common Uses ✔️ Support and resistance zone in trending markets ✔️ Institutional entry/exit level benchmark ✔️ Reversion-to-mean setups VWAP is used across timeframes. I use higher timeframes like 4H to spot trend zones, then zoom into 30m or 15m for entries. Setting and more information VWAP Explained by TradingView: www.tradingview.com Anchored VWAP Explained by TradingView: www.tradingview.com 6️⃣ VWAP Limitations ⚠️ VWAP doesn’t work well in all cases: - In sideways/choppy markets, it can lose value - It is not an exact entry/exit signal, but rather a dynamic zone - In FX markets, it’s unreliable due to lack of centralized volume data Also, treat VWAP as a zone, not a line. Large players fill big orders in that area, expect false moves or liquidity grabs. 7️⃣ Mistakes to Avoid ❌ Entering blindly on VWAP touches ❌ Using VWAP without confirmation from price action or volume ❌ Assuming it always gives perfect levels It works best when combined with other tools, such as market structure, support/resistance, and volume profile. 8️⃣ Final Thoughts VWAP is a powerful tool to see where price is relative to volume-based value. Anchoring VWAP to key levels adds precision and insight. Used properly, it helps: - Spot where institutions might be active - Confirm high-probability zones - Improve entries/exits when paired with other tools Examples are provided below to show how VWAP works in real-time setups. This guide is educational and for learning purposes only. VWAP Zone and a Example trade CRYPTOCAP:BTC Example Stock Market NASDAQ:AAPL Example Resistance NASDAQ:MSTR VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) helps traders see the average price weighted by volume. It's commonly used by institutions to identify good entry/exit zones. Anchored VWAP takes this further by starting from key points like pivot highs/lows for more accuracy. It's most useful in trending markets and works best when combined with tools like fixed range volume profile or support/resistance. While powerful, VWAP isn’t perfect it should be used as a dynamic zone, not a fixed level, and always with other confirmations. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Education
by Risk_Adj_Return
4
Volume Droughts and False Breakouts: Your Summer Trading TrapsThe market’s heating up — but is your breakout about to dry up? Here’s a word about the importance of summer trading success (helped by volume — the main character). ☀️ Welcome to the Liquidity Desert Summer’s getting ready to slap the market with a whole flurry of different setups. Picture this — the beaches are full, your trading desk is half-abandoned, and the only thing more elusive than a decent breakout is your intention to actually read that big fat technical analysis book you bought last year. And yet, here you are — eyes glued to the chart — watching a clean breakout above resistance that’s just begging for you to hit “buy.” Everything looks perfect. Price rips through the level like it’s made of butter. But there’s just one tiny problem: no volume. None. Nada. Niente. Congratulations. You’ve just bought the world’s most attractive false breakout. 🏝️ Summer Markets: Where Good Setups Go to Die Let’s set the scene. It’s June. The big dogs on Wall Street are golfing in the Hamptons and sipping mezcal espresso martinis, interns are running the order flow, and every chart you love is doing just enough to get your hopes up before crushing them like a half-melted snow cone. This isn’t your usual high-volatility playground. Summer markets — especially between June and August — are notorious for thin liquidity . That means fewer participants, smaller volume, and a much higher likelihood of being tricked by price action that looks strong… until it’s not. And it’s not just stocks. Forex, crypto, commodities — even the bond boys — all face the same issue: when fewer people are trading, price becomes more fragile. And fragile price = bad decisions. 🚨 Why False Breakouts Love Quiet Markets False breakouts happen when price appears to break above resistance (or below support), only to reverse sharply — often trapping late traders and triggering stop hunts. But in summer? It’s a whole different beast. Here’s why: No liquidity cushion : In normal markets, you need strong volume to fuel a breakout. Without that, the breakout doesn’t necessarily have the gas to keep going. Market makers get bored : Thin markets mean it’s easier for a few big orders to push prices where they want. Welcome to manipulation season (there, we said what we said!). Algos go wild : With fewer humans around, algorithms dominate. And they love playing games around key levels. 🧊 The Mirage Setup: A Cautionary Tale Let’s say you’re watching GameStop NYSE:GME stock. Resistance at $30. Price hovers there for days, teasing a breakout. Then — boom — a sudden 6% pop above. You buy. Everyone buys. The trading community goes nuts. “This is it bois!” But there’s a problem. Look at the volume: a trickle. Not even half the average daily volume. Ten minutes later, NYSE:GME is back below $30, your stop loss is hit, and you’re left explaining to your cat why you’re emotionally invested in a ticker. Moral of the story? Don’t trust breakouts when no one’s trading. 📉 Volume: Your Summer Lie Detector Volume is more than just a histogram under your chart. It’s your truth serum. Your smoke alarm. Your buddy who tells you to think twice before jumping in that trade. Here’s how to read it right when everyone else is checking out: Confirm the move : If price breaks out, but volume doesn’t spike at least 20–30% above the average — be suspicious. Look for acceleration : Healthy moves gather steam. You want to see volume growing into the breakout, not fizzling. Watch for volume cliffs : A sudden volume drop right after a breakout often signals that the move is running on fumes. Add Volume Profile Indicators : Just to be safe, you can always add Volume Profile Indicators to your chart — they analyze both price and volume and can highlight what your keen eye might miss. Remember what happened last summer? And how we all learned the downside of something called "carry trade"? Those who were short the Japanese yen remember . 🧠 Context Over Candles: Be a Liquidity Detective Let’s say you see a double top pattern — your favorite. Clean lines. Tight price action. Perfect setup. But now zoom out. It’s July 3. Pre-holiday half-day. No volume. And the S&P 500 SP:SPX has moved 0.04% all day. Still want in? Technical analysis doesn’t work in a vacuum. Chart patterns lose their predictive power when the environment they live in is compromised. And thin liquidity is a compromised environment. 🐍 Snakes in the Sand: How Market Makers Bait Traps Market makers (and large players) are like desert snakes — quiet, patient, and very good at making you move when you shouldn’t. Here’s how they bait traders in illiquid markets: Run stops above resistance to trigger breakout buyers. Dump shares immediately after breakout to trap retail. Ride the reversal as trapped longs scramble to exit. They’re so powerful some say they run the game — and can stop it anytime it’s not going their way (remember the GameStop freeze? ) It’s a psychological game — and in the summer, it’s easier to do shenanigans because most players aren’t watching. Don’t be the one jumping at shadows. Be the trader who expects the trap. 🛠️ How to Survive (and Thrive) in the Summer Slump Not all is lost. You can still trade — smartly. Here’s your Summer Survival Toolkit : Wait for volume confirmation on every breakout. Lower your position size . Less liquidity = more slippage risk. Set wider stops , or better yet, sit out the chop. Focus on trending names with relative strength and solid weight (think: tech titans, oil plays, or financials). Use alerts instead of staring at charts . Don’t mistake boredom for opportunity. And most importantly: Know when not to trade . Discipline is a position too. 🔚 Final Word: This Isn’t the Off-Season. It’s the Setup Season. Summer might feel slow, but it’s not dead. Smart traders know that the best trades of Q3 and Q4 often begin in July — as early trendlines form, consolidation patterns develop, and institutional footprints quietly appear in the tape. So use this time wisely. Don’t force trades. Watch volume like a hawk. And never forget: the best breakouts don’t need hype — they bring their own thunder. Stay cool, stay patient, and trade smart. The mirage may be tempting, but the oasis always belongs to the ones who go far enough and don’t give up. Off to you : How are you navigating trading during the summer months? Staying poolside with one eye on the charts or actively seeking out opportunities while folks catch a break? Share your insights in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
14
VWMA : Example Volume weighted Moving Average 🔍 VWMA in Crypto Trading Smarter than simple MAs. Powered by volume. What is VWMA? 🎯 VWMA = Price + Volume Combined Unlike SMA/EMA, VWMA gives more weight to high-volume candles. ✅ Shows where the real trading pressure is. Why Use VWMA? 💥 Volume Confirms Price Price movement + High Volume = Stronger Signal VWMA adjusts faster when volume spikes 📊 More reliable in volatile crypto markets. Some VWMA Settings 📊 Optimal VWMA Periods by Timeframe 🕒 15m – VWMA 20 → For scalping 🕞 30m – VWMA 20/30 → Intraday breakouts 🕐 1h – VWMA 30/50 → Trend filter + RSI combo 🕓 4h – VWMA 50/100 → Swing trading 📅 1D – VWMA 50/100/200 → Macro trend + S/R levels Go through different settings to see what suits you best. VWMA in Action 📈 Price Above VWMA = Bullish Strength More confidence in uptrend Especially valid during high volume surges 🟢 Great confluence with MA 7/9 in short-term setups Dynamic Support/Resistance 🛡️ VWMA Reacts to Market Strength Acts as dynamic support or resistance—especially when volume increases. Useful in catching pullback entries or trailing SLs. 🚦 Filter Fakeouts with VWMA + MA ✅ Use in confluence for stronger edge. Tips for VWMA 📌 Use shorter VWMA (20–30) for entries 📌 Use longer VWMA (50–200) for trend validation 🎯 Works best in trending, high-volume conditions
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CmpCryptoInsights
3