DIFFERENCE BETWEEN INDUCEMENT AND LIQUITY SMART MONEY COCNEPTHere i show you difference between inducement and liquidity in trading on smart money concept . so watch the video very well to understand how both works.
Community ideas
ACCUMULATION MANIPLUTION DISTRIBUTION EXPLAINED SMCHere i explained how you can use accumulation manipulation distribution trade . As a smart money concept trader you need to under when price is ranging and when is manipulating so you can take advantage of distribution. Using this can maximize your profit and reduce loss.
Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) with Fibonacci on Large Candles (Bullish & Bearish)
If you spot a large candle with high volume, whether bearish or bullish, you can use Fibonacci retracement on the candle itself to determine potential reversal or continuation zones. Here’s how to apply it in both scenarios:
1️⃣ Large Bearish Candle (Bearish Bar)
📉 (Red candle with high volume closing near the low)
How to Identify a Bearish Candle?
✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the low (strong selling signal).
✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Selling (Smart Money Selling).
✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the low, it could indicate hidden buying (stopping volume).
How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bearish Candle?
1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bearish candle:
• High = The top of the candle.
• Low = The bottom of the candle.
• This represents the range of the selling pressure in the market.
2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low:
• 0% = Low (Bottom of the bearish bar).
• 100% = High (Top of the bearish bar).
• Key levels to watch:
• 38.2% → Weak retracement, market may continue down.
• 50% → Balance point, strong resistance possible.
• 61.8% → Potential reversal zone; if price fails to break it, the downtrend may continue.
• 78.6% → If price breaks this, trend may change.
3️⃣ If the market continues downward, check Fibonacci extensions:
• 127.2% & 161.8% → Downside targets if the bearish trend continues.
Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Selling
✅ Sell Entry: If the price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and rejects with weak volume.
❌ Stop Loss: Above 61.8% or the last swing high.
🎯 Targets:
• Break of the large candle’s low.
• Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%.
2️⃣ Large Bullish Candle (Bullish Bar)
📈 (Green candle with high volume closing near the high)
How to Identify a Bullish Candle?
✅ The candle has a large body and closes near the high → Strong buying signal.
✅ The volume is significantly higher than previous candles → Institutional Buying (Smart Money Buying).
✅ If volume is high but the candle doesn’t close at the high, it could indicate supply absorption.
How to Draw Fibonacci on a Bullish Candle?
1️⃣ Identify the high and low of the bullish candle:
• High = The top of the candle.
• Low = The bottom of the candle.
• This represents the range of the buying pressure in the market.
2️⃣ Draw Fibonacci levels between the high and low:
• 0% = High (Top of the bullish bar).
• 100% = Low (Bottom of the bullish bar).
• Key levels to watch:
• 38.2% → Shallow pullback, market may continue up.
• 50% → Balance point, potential bounce area.
• 61.8% → Strong support zone; if price holds with weak volume, an uptrend may continue.
• 78.6% → If broken, trend may reverse.
3️⃣ If the market continues upward, check Fibonacci extensions:
• 127.2% & 161.8% → Upside targets if the bullish trend continues.
Confirming Volume Spread Analysis (VSA) for Buying
✅ Buy Entry: If price retraces to 38.2% - 50% and bounces with high volume.
❌ Stop Loss: Below 61.8% or the last swing low.
🎯 Targets:
• Break of the large candle’s high.
• Fibonacci extensions 127.2% or 161.8%.
🎯 Quick Summary: When to Enter?
🔴 Sell:
• Large red candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with weak volume.
• Stop loss above 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions.
🟢 Buy:
• Large green candle, price retraces to 38.2% - 50% with strong volume.
• Stop loss below 61.8%, target at 127.2% & 161.8% extensions.
How Can You Trade Energy Commodities?How Can You Trade Energy Commodities?
Energy trading connects global markets to the vital resources that power economies—oil and natural gas. These commodities aren’t just essential for industries and homes; they’re also dynamic assets for traders, influenced by geopolitics, supply, and demand.
Whether you’re exploring benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI or understanding natural gas markets, this article unpacks the essentials of energy commodities and how to trade them.
What Is Energy Trading?
Energy trading involves buying and selling energy resources that power industries and households worldwide. These commodities are essential for modern life and are traded in global markets both as physical products and financial instruments.
Energy commodities include resources like oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, ethanol, uranium, and more. In this article, we’ll focus on the two that traders interact with the most: oil and natural gas.
Oil is often divided into benchmarks like Brent Crude and WTI, which set global and regional pricing standards. These benchmarks represent crude oil that varies in quality and origin, impacting its trade and refining applications.
Natural gas, on the other hand, plays a critical role in electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes. It’s traded in various forms, including pipeline gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG), offering flexibility in transportation and supply.
What makes energy commodities unique is their global demand and sensitivity to external factors. Weather patterns, geopolitical developments, and economic activity all heavily influence their prices. For traders, this creates a dynamic market with potential opportunities to take advantage of price movements.
Additionally, energy commodities can act as economic indicators. A surge in oil prices, for example, might reflect growing demand from expanding industries, while a drop could indicate reduced consumption. Understanding these resources isn’t just about their practical use—it’s about grasping their role in shaping global markets and financial systems.
Oil: Brent Crude vs WTI
Brent Crude and WTI (West Texas Intermediate) are the world’s two leading oil benchmarks, shaping prices for a resource critical to industries and economies. Despite both being types of crude oil, they differ significantly in origin, quality, and market influence.
Brent Crude
Brent Crude is a globally recognised benchmark for oil pricing, primarily sourced from fields in the North Sea. Its importance lies in its role as a pricing reference for about two-thirds of the world’s oil supply. What makes Brent unique is its lighter and sweeter quality, meaning it has lower sulphur content and is easier to refine into fuels like petrol and diesel.
This benchmark is particularly significant in European, African, and Asian markets, where it serves as a key indicator of global oil prices. Its value is heavily influenced by international demand, geopolitical events, and production levels in major exporting countries. For traders, Brent offers a window into global supply and demand trends, making it a critical component of energy markets.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI)
WTI, or West Texas Intermediate, is the benchmark for oil produced in the United States. Extracted primarily from Texas and surrounding regions, WTI is even lighter and sweeter than Brent, making it suitable for refining into high-value products like petrol.
WTI’s pricing is heavily tied to North American markets, with its hub in Cushing, Oklahoma, a key point for storage and distribution. Localised factors, like US production rates and storage capacity, often create price differentials between WTI and Brent, with Brent typically trading at a premium. For example, logistical bottlenecks in the US can drive WTI prices lower.
The main distinction between the two lies in their geographical focus: while Brent captures the international market’s pulse, WTI provides insights into North American energy dynamics. Together, they form the foundation of global oil pricing.
Natural Gas: A Growing Energy Commodity
Natural gas is a cornerstone of the global energy market, valued for its versatility and role in powering economies. It’s used extensively for electricity generation, heating, and industrial processes, with demand continuing to rise as countries seek cleaner alternatives to coal and oil.
This energy commodity comes in two primary forms for trade: pipeline natural gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG). Pipeline gas is delivered directly via extensive networks, making it dominant in regions like North America and Europe.
LNG, on the other hand, is supercooled to a liquid state for transportation across oceans, opening up markets that lack pipeline infrastructure. LNG trade has grown rapidly in recent years, with key suppliers like Qatar, Australia, and the US meeting surging demand in Asia.
Pricing for natural gas varies regionally, with hubs like Henry Hub in the US and the National Balancing Point (NBP) in the UK serving as benchmarks. These hubs reflect regional dynamics, such as weather conditions, storage levels, and local supply disruptions.
Natural gas prices are also closely tied to broader geopolitical and economic factors. For example, harsh winters often drive up heating demand, while conflicts or sanctions affecting major producers can create supply constraints. This volatility makes natural gas an active and highly watched market for traders, offering potential opportunities tied to shifting global conditions.
Price Factors of Energy Commodities
Energy commodity prices are influenced by a mix of global events, market fundamentals, and local factors. Here’s a breakdown of key elements driving oil and gas trading prices:
- Supply and Production Levels: Output from major producers like OPEC nations, the US, and Russia has a direct impact on prices. Supply cuts or surges can quickly move markets.
- Geopolitical Events: Conflicts, sanctions, or political instability in oil and gas-rich regions often disrupt supply chains, creating volatility.
- Weather and Seasonal Demand: Cold winters boost natural gas demand for heating, while summer driving seasons often increase oil consumption. Extreme weather events, such as hurricanes, can also damage infrastructure and reduce supply.
- Economic Growth: Expanding economies typically consume more energy, driving demand and prices higher. Conversely, a slowdown or recession can weaken demand.
- Storage Levels: Inventories act as a cushion against supply disruptions. Low storage levels often signal tighter markets, pushing prices up.
- Transportation Costs: The cost of shipping oil or LNG across regions impacts pricing, particularly for seaborne commodities like Brent Crude and LNG.
- Exchange Rates: Energy commodities are usually priced in dollars, meaning currency fluctuations can affect affordability in non-dollar markets.
- Market Sentiment: Traders’ expectations, shaped by reports like US inventory data or OPEC forecasts, can influence short-term price movements.
How to Trade Energy Commodities
Trading energy commodities like oil and natural gas involves navigating dynamic markets with the right tools, strategies, and risk awareness. Here’s a breakdown of how traders typically approach energy commodity trading:
Instruments for Energy Trading
Energy commodities can be traded through various instruments, typically through an oil and gas trading platform. For instance, FXOpen provides access to oil and gas CFDs alongside 700+ other markets, including currency pairs, stocks, ETFs, and more.
- CFDs (Contracts for Difference): Popular among retail traders because they allow access to global energy markets without owning the physical assets. They offer leverage and provide flexibility to take advantage of both rising and falling prices. Additionally, CFDs have lower entry costs, no expiration dates, and eliminate concerns like storage or delivery logistics. Please remember that leverage trading increases risks.
- Futures: These are contracts to buy or sell commodities at a future date. While they provide leverage and flexibility, trading energy derivatives like futures is often unnecessarily complex for the average retail trader.
- ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds): Energy ETFs diversify exposure to energy commodities or related sectors.
- Energy Stocks: Shares in oil and gas companies provide indirect exposure to commodity price changes.
Analysis: Fundamental and Technical
Energy traders rely on two primary types of analysis:
- Fundamental Analysis: Examines supply and demand factors like OPEC decisions, weather patterns, geopolitical tensions, and economic indicators such as GDP growth or industrial output.
- Technical Analysis: Focuses on price charts, identifying patterns, trends, and important levels to anticipate potential market movements.
Combining these approaches can offer a broader perspective, helping traders refine their strategies.
Taking a Position and Managing Risk
Once traders identify potential opportunities, they decide on position size and duration based on their analysis. Risk management is critical to help traders potentially mitigate losses in these volatile markets. Strategies often include:
- Diversifying positions to reduce exposure to a single commodity.
- Setting limits on position sizes to align with overall portfolio risk.
- Monitoring leverage carefully, as it can amplify both potential returns and losses.
Risk Factors in Energy Commodities Trading
Trading energy commodities like oil and natural gas offer potential opportunities, but it also comes with significant risks due to the market's volatility and global nature.
- Price Volatility: Energy markets are highly sensitive to geopolitical events, economic shifts, and supply disruptions. This can lead to rapid price swings, particularly if the event is unexpected.
- Leverage Risks: Many instruments, like CFDs and futures, allow traders to use leverage, amplifying both potential returns and losses. Mismanaging leverage can lead to significant setbacks.
- Geopolitical Uncertainty: Events like conflicts in oil-producing regions or trade sanctions can disrupt supply chains and sharply impact prices.
- Market Sentiment: Energy prices can react strongly to reports like inventory data, OPEC announcements, or unexpected news, creating rapid shifts in sentiment and price direction.
- Overexposure: Focusing too heavily on a single energy commodity can magnify losses if the market moves against the position.
- Economic Factors: Slowing industrial activity or recession fears can reduce demand for energy, putting downward pressure on prices.
The Bottom Line
Energy commodities trading offers potential opportunities, driven by global demand and supply. Whether focusing on oil, natural gas, or other energy assets, understanding the fundamentals and risks is key to navigating this complex market. Ready to explore oil and gas commodity trading via CFDs? Open an FXOpen account to access advanced tools, competitive spreads, low commissions, and four trading platforms designed to support your journey.
FAQ
What Are Energy Commodities?
Energy commodities are natural resources used to power industries, homes, and transportation. Key examples include crude oil, natural gas, and coal. These commodities are traded globally as physical assets or through financial instruments like futures and CFDs.
Can I Make Money Trading Commodities?
Trading commodities offers potential opportunities to take advantage of price movements, but it also involves significant risks. The effectiveness of your trades depends on understanding of market dynamics, analyses of supply and demand, and risk management. While some traders achieve returns, losses are also common, especially in volatile markets like energy.
How Do I Start Investing in Energy?
Investing in energy typically begins with choosing an instrument like ETFs or stocks, depending on your goals and risk tolerance. Researching market fundamentals, monitoring geopolitical and economic factors, and practising sound risk management are essential steps for new investors.
What Is an Energy Trading Platform?
An energy trading platform, or power trading platform, is software that enables traders to buy and sell energy commodities. These energy trading solutions provide access to pricing data, charting tools, and news feeds, helping traders analyse markets and execute trades efficiently.
Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
PROFIT & LEARN: Confusion Clarity Bar Index (CCBI) Overview
The Confusion Clarity Bar Index (CCBI) is a TradingView indicator designed to measure market efficiency and volatility by combining the Efficiency Ratio with a Bollinger Bands %b calculation. This provides traders with a unique way to gauge price movement clarity versus confusion.
Key Features:
1. Efficiency Ratio (ER) Calculation:
• Measures the directional efficiency of price movements over a user-defined period.
• Compares absolute momentum to cumulative volatility to determine efficiency.
2. Bollinger Bands %b Calculation:
• Applies a Bollinger Bands overlay to the Efficiency Ratio.
• Standard deviation is set very low (default 0.0001) to capture subtle variations in efficiency.
3. Histogram Visualization:
• A column-style histogram represents %b values:
• Blue bars when %b is above 0.5 (greater market clarity).
• Red bars when %b is below 0.5 (higher market confusion).
4. Overbought & Oversold Levels:
• 1.0 (Overbought) → Market is exceptionally efficient.
• 0.0 (Oversold) → Market is highly inefficient or erratic.
• 0.5 (Neutral Level) → Middle ground between efficiency and confusion.
5. Background Highlighting:
• Green background when %b reaches 1.0 (strong market efficiency).
• Red background when %b reaches 0.0 (extreme market inefficiency).
How to Use It:
• Trend Confirmation:
• If bars remain blue, price movements are likely clear and efficient.
• If bars turn red, market uncertainty is increasing.
• Reversal Zones:
• A move towards 0.0 suggests indecision, potentially signaling trend exhaustion.
• A move towards 1.0 indicates strong directional momentum.
• Volatility Breakouts:
• A sharp shift in %b from low to high may indicate an upcoming trend breakout.
This indicator is best used in conjunction with momentum oscillators and volume indicators to confirm market conditions and potential trade setups.
what action I take when market open.This video will show you what I look at and my thought process when prepare for maket open.
Purpose of this video is to show how i make plan to take risk in first hour of market open.
example used is 5min&1min
1st. orb 5min
2nd. wait for breakout of 5min
3rd. use MA as (Support) of a trend to SCALP
ORB FIB levels i used is 0.5%(orb) 1.0% 1.5% 2.0%
Target is use orb breakout to target 2.0% fib levels as PriceTarget.
Sector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingViewSector Rotation Analysis: A Practical Tutorial Using TradingView
Overview
Sector rotation is an investment strategy that involves reallocating capital among different sectors of the economy to align with their performance during various phases of the economic cycle. While academic studies have shown that sector rotation does not consistently outperform the market after accounting for transaction costs, it remains a popular framework for portfolio management.
This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to analyzing sector rotation and identifying leading and lagging sectors using TradingView .
Understanding Sector Rotation and Economic Cycles
The economy moves through distinct phases, and each phase tends to favor specific sectors:
1. Expansion : Rapid economic growth with rising consumer confidence.
- Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK , Consumer Discretionary AMEX:XLY , Industrials AMEX:XLI
2. Peak : Growth slows, and inflation may rise.
- Leading Sectors: Energy AMEX:XLE , Materials AMEX:XLB
3. Contraction : Economic activity declines, and unemployment rises.
- Leading Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU , Healthcare AMEX:XLV , Consumer Staples AMEX:XLP
4. Trough : The economy begins recovering from a recession.
- Leading Sectors: Financials AMEX:XLF , Real Estate AMEX:XLRE
Step 1: Use TradingView to Monitor Economic Indicators
Economic indicators provide context for sector performance:
GDP Growth : Signals expansion or contraction.
Interest Rates : Rising rates favor Financials; falling rates benefit Real Estate.
Inflation : High inflation supports Energy and Materials.
Step 2: Analyze Sector Performance Using Relative Strength
Relative Strength RS compares a sector's performance against a benchmark index like the
SP:SPX This helps identify whether a sector is leading or lagging.
How to Calculate RS in TradingView
Open a chart for a sector TSXV:ETF , such as AMEX:XLK Technology.
Add SP:SPX as a comparison symbol by clicking the Compare ➕ button.
Analyze the RS line:
- If RS trends upward, the sector is outperforming.
- If RS trends downward, the sector is underperforming.
Using Indicators
e.g.: You may add the Sector Relative Strength indicator from TradingView’s public library. This tool ranks multiple sectors by their relative strength against SP:SPX
Additionally, you can use the RS Rating indicator by @Fred6724, which calculates the Relative Strength Rating (1 to 99) of a stock or sector based on its 12-month performance compared to others in a selected index.
Example
In early 2021, during economic recovery, AMEX:XLK 's RS rose above SP:SPX , signaling Technology was leading.
Step 3: Validate Sector Trends with Technical Indicators
Technical indicators can confirm sector momentum and provide entry/exit signals:
Moving Averages
Use 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages SMA.
If a sector TSXV:ETF trades above both SMAs, it indicates bullish momentum.
Relative Strength Index RSI
RSI > 70 suggests overbought conditions; <30 indicates oversold conditions.
MACD Moving Average Convergence Divergence
Look for bullish crossovers where the MACD line crosses above the signal line.
Example
During the inflation surge in 2022, AMEX:XLE Energy traded above its 200-day SMA while RSI hovered near 70, confirming strong momentum in the Energy sector.
Step 4: Compare Multiple Sectors Simultaneously
TradingView allows you to overlay multiple ETFs on one chart for direct comparison:
Open AMEX:SPY as your benchmark chart.
Add ETFs like AMEX:XLK , AMEX:XLY , AMEX:XLU , etc., using the Compare tool.
Observe which sectors are trending higher or lower relative to AMEX:SPY
Example
If AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLY show upward trends while AMEX:XLU remains flat, this indicates cyclical sectors like Technology and Consumer Discretionary are outperforming during an expansion phase.
Step 5: Implement Sector Rotation in Your Portfolio
Once you’ve identified leading sectors:
Allocate more capital to sectors with strong RS and bullish technical indicators.
Reduce exposure to lagging sectors with weak RS or bearish momentum signals.
Example
During post-pandemic recovery in early 2021:
Leading Sectors: Technology AMEX:XLK and Industrials AMEX:XLI
Lagging Sectors: Utilities AMEX:XLU
Investors who rotated into AMEX:XLK and AMEX:XLI outperformed those who remained in defensive sectors like AMEX:XLU
Real-Life Case Studies of Sector Rotation
Case Study 1: Post-Pandemic Recovery
In early 2021, as economies reopened after COVID-19 lockdowns:
Cyclical sectors like Industrials AMEX:XLI and Financials AMEX:XLF outperformed due to increased economic activity.
Defensive sectors like Utilities AMEX:XLU lagged as investors shifted away from safe havens.
Using TradingView’s heatmap feature , investors could have identified strong gains in AMEX:XLI and AMEX:XLF relative to AMEX:SPY
Case Study 2: Inflation Surge in Late 2022
As inflation surged in late 2022:
Energy AMEX:XLE and Materials AMEX:XLB outperformed due to rising commodity prices.
Technology AMEX:XLK underperformed as higher interest rates hurt growth stocks.
By monitoring RS lines for AMEX:XLE and AMEX:XLB on TradingView charts, investors could have rotated into these sectors ahead of broader market gains.
Limitations of Sector Rotation Strategies
Transaction Costs : Frequent rebalancing can erode returns over time.
Market Timing Challenges : Predicting economic cycles accurately is difficult and prone to errors.
False Signal s: Technical indicators like MACD or RSI can produce false positives during volatile markets.
Historical Bias : Backtested strategies often fail when applied to future market conditions.
Conclusion
Sector rotation is a useful framework for aligning investments with macroeconomic trends but should be approached with caution due to its inherent limitations. By leveraging TradingView ’s tools, such as relative strength analysis, heatmaps, and technical indicators, investors can systematically analyze sector performance and make informed decisions about portfolio allocation.
While academic research shows that sector rotation strategies do not consistently outperform simpler approaches like market timing or buy-and-hold strategies, they remain valuable for diversification and risk management when used judiciously.
Institutional Market Structure: How to Mark It!2025 ICT Mentorship: Lecture 2
Video Description:
📈 Unlock the Secrets of Institutional Market Structure!
Hey traders! Welcome to today’s video, where we lay the foundation for mastering how the market truly moves. Understanding market structure is the key to improving your trading precision and analysis.
In this session, we’ll break down the difference between minor swing points and strong swing points—a crucial distinction for objective and accurate structure analysis. You’ll learn how to mark market structure properly, keeping emotions in check and aligning with solid trading psychology.
🎯 What You’ll Gain:
✅ Identify market structure like a pro
✅ Enhance your objectivity and reduce impulsive decisions
✅ Master institutional techniques for improved accuracy
If you’re ready to take your trading to the next level and build a strong foundation, hit play and let’s dive in!
💬 Don’t forget to like, comment, and subscribe for more game-changing insights. Share your thoughts below—I’d love to hear how this helps your trading journey!
Enjoy the video and happy trading!
The Architect 🏛️📊
Why you should choose your trading period carefullyFirst, let's look at the four most important trading sessions. The Forex and stock market is divided into different trading sessions, which are based on the opening hours of the main financial centers:
Session Opening Hours (UTC) Major Markets:
-> Sydney session 22:00 – 07:00 Australia, New Zealand
-> Tokyo session 00:00 – 09:00 Japan, China, Singapore
-> London session 08:00 – 17:00 UK, Europe
-> New York session 1:00 p.m. – 10:00 p.m. USA, Canada
Note: Times vary slightly depending on summer or winter time.
Why are trading sessions important?
-> Volatility & Liquidity
Depending on the session, there are different market movements.
High liquidity → tight spreads and better order execution.
Low liquidity → greater slippage and wider spreads.
-> Active currencies & markets
During the Tokyo session, JPY and AUD pairs are particularly active.
During the London session, EUR and GBP pairs are the most volatile.
During the New York session, USD pairs and stock markets moved the most.
Opportunities & risks during overlapping times:
The overlaps between sessions are the most volatile times because several major markets are active at the same time.
1. London-New York Overlap (13:00 – 17:00 UTC)
→ Highest volatility
Why?
The world's two largest financial centers operate at the same time.
Opportunities:
Big price moves → good for breakout traders and scalping.
High liquidity → tight spreads, fast order execution.
Risks:
Extreme volatility → rapid price changes can trigger stop losses.
News (e.g. US jobs data) can cause sudden movements.
Practical example:
A trader is watching EUR/USD and sees strong resistance at 1.1000.
US inflation data will be released at 13:30 UTC.
If the data is better than expected → USD strengthens, EUR/USD falls.
If the data is worse → USD weakens, EUR/USD rises.
Within a few minutes the price can fluctuate by 50-100 pips.
→ Strategy: News traders rely on quick movements, while conservative traders extend stop losses or pause during this time.
2. Tokyo-London Overlap (08:00 – 09:00 UTC)
→ Medium volatility
Why?
London opens while Tokyo is still active.
Opportunities:
JPY pairs (e.g. GBP/JPY) are moving strongly.
Breakouts through the European opening.
Risks:
Sudden changes in direction as European traders often have a different market opinion than Asian ones.
Practical example:
A scalper is trading GBP/JPY in a narrow range of 185.00 – 185.20 during the Tokyo session.
At 08:00 UTC London opens with GBP/JPY breaking above 185.50.
Within 30 minutes the price rises to 186.00 as European traders buy GBP.
If you recognize the breakout early, you can quickly take 50-100 pips.
→ Strategy: Scalpers rely on quick entries and take profits before volatility subsides.
3. Sydney-Tokyo Overlap (00:00 – 07:00 UTC)
→ Low volatility
Why?
Mainly the Asian market is active.
Opportunities:
Less volatility → good for range trading.
Cheaper spreads for AUD and NZD pairs.
Risks:
Little liquidity → Slippage may occur.
Strong moves are rare, except for major news from Japan or Australia.
Practical example:
A swing trader notes that AUD/USD has been fluctuating between 0.6500 and 0.6550 for days.
During the Sydney-Tokyo session the price mostly stays in this range.
The trader places a sell limit order at 0.6550 and a buy limit order at 0.6500.
Since there is little volatility, it can be profitable with multiple small trades.
→ Strategy: Range trading is ideal because no major breakouts are expected.
Conclusion:
Each trading session has its own characteristics, opportunities and risks.
The crossovers are the most volatile times - good for day traders, but risky for inexperienced traders. Anyone who understands the market mechanisms can take targeted action at the right time. The strategies mentioned above are simply derivations from the advantages and disadvantages of the respective sessions. Of course, a well-founded strategy concept requires much more.
Pivot Points Part 2: Support and Resistance LevelsWelcome back to our series on pivot points, an objective a simple tool used by many day traders.
In Part 1, we explored the central pivot point, its calculation, and its role as a key reference for market sentiment. In Part 2, we’ll expand on this foundation by diving into the support and resistance levels derived from the pivot point formula. These levels are designed to add depth to your day trading analysis, offering a more comprehensive view of intraday price action.
The Mechanics: Support and Resistance Levels
In addition to the central pivot point (PP), pivot analysis includes three levels of support (S1, S2, S3) and three levels of resistance (R1, R2, R3). These levels are calculated using the previous session’s high, low, and close. The formulas for the primary levels are as follows:
PP = (previous high + previous low + previous close) / 3
S1 = (pivot point x 2) - previous high
S2 = pivot point - (previous high — previous low)
R1 = (pivot point x 2) — previous low
R2 = pivot point + (previous high — previous low)
The third levels (R3 and S3) extend even further but are less frequently reached in typical intraday trading. These levels create a structured framework for identifying potential reversal points, breakout zones, and profit targets.
S&P 500 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Using Pivot Levels in Your Trading
1. Trading the Reversal: Support and Resistance in Action
One of the most common ways to use pivot levels is to identify potential reversal points. For example, if the price reaches S1 or R1 and shows signs of hesitation, it may indicate a reversal is likely. This is particularly true when combined with candlestick patterns, momentum indicators, or divergence on oscillators like RSI.
Example:
In this EUR/USD 5-minute chart, we see a textbook reversal at R1. The market initially uses the pivot point (PP) as support and then forms a double top reversal pattern when retesting R1 resistance, signalling a potential upward move. This setup allows traders to enter with a clear stop above R1 and a target near the pivot point or dynamic moving average.
EUR/USD 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
2. Riding the Breakout
When momentum is strong, the market can break through pivot levels, turning resistance into support (or vice versa). Watching for breakouts at R1 or S1 can provide excellent entry points for trend-following strategies.
Example:
In this example, the FTSE 100 having earlier reversed at R1 and broken through PP, briefly consolidates near S1. This is followed by a break lower – triggering a swift move down to S2.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
3. Target Setting and Risk Management
Pivot levels are also useful for setting realistic profit targets and stop losses. For example, a trader entering a long position near S1 might use the pivot point as an initial target, depending on the strength of the move.
Similarly, a short position initiated near R1 could aim for the pivot point as an initial target and S1 as a secondary target, with stops placed just above the breakout level to manage risk.
Combining Pivot Levels with Other Tools
While pivot levels are powerful on their own, combining them with other tools can significantly enhance their effectiveness:
VWAP: If a pivot level aligns with VWAP, it reinforces the level’s importance as a potential support or resistance zone.
Prior Days High/Low: Pivot levels that coincide with the previous session’s high or low can serve as stronger reversal or breakout points.
RSI: Use RSI to gauge momentum—if price approaches a pivot level while RSI is negative or positive divergence at an overbought or oversold, it can signal a potential reversal.
Example:
In the below example we see the FTSE hold above VWAP and the pivot level – forming a solid base of support before breaking higher. The market breaks through R1 and the prior days high leading to a charge past R2 to and towards R3. At R3 we see the market start to stall as the RSI shows signs of negative divergence.
FTSE 100 5min Candle Chart
Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results
Summary
Pivot points, along with their associated support and resistance levels, offer traders a structured framework for navigating intraday price action. By understanding how these levels interact with market sentiment and momentum, traders can develop more confident strategies for reversals, breakouts, and risk management.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance. Social media channels are not relevant for UK residents.
Spread bets and CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 83% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread bets and CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how spread bets and CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing
Portfolio Selection for the Week – 10th February 2025This portfolio selection is for educational purposes only!
The key to successful trading lies in consistency. Consistent decision-making, combined with a positive edge, is what leads to long-term success in the markets. This is why we regularly conduct portfolio selection.
At present, the Japanese Yen (JPY) is the strongest currency, followed by the US Dollar (USD), Australian Dollar (AUD), and Canadian Dollar (CAD). On the weaker side, we see Swiss Franc (CHF), Euro (EUR), New Zealand Dollar (NZD), and British Pound (GBP).
Most currency pairs have been experiencing secondary trends. Once this phase concludes, we can look to align trades with the dominant market trend.
If you find this content valuable, hit the boost and share your thoughts in the comments!
Wishing you a profitable trading week! 🚀📈
China-US Tariffs: Impact on Forex
Hello, I am professional trader Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about a hot topic that is shaking up global markets: the introduction of new tariffs by China towards the United States and the impact that this news is having on the Forex market.
A New Chapter in the US-China Trade War
For weeks, the investment world has been monitoring the evolution of tensions between two of the world's largest economies: the United States and China. After months of negotiations, China has decided to implement new tariffs on US products, intensifying the trade war that began a few years ago. The news had an immediate effect on global markets and, as always, Forex is one of the markets most sensitive to these geopolitical developments.
Direct Impact on USD Currency Pairs
The US dollar (USD) suffered a strong backlash after the announcement. In fact, the tariffs can reduce US exports to China, negatively affecting the US trade balance and fueling uncertainty among investors. The immediate result? A weakening of the dollar against several currencies.
The most affected currency pairs were:
EUR/USD: The euro gained ground, rising to levels not seen in weeks. Economic uncertainty resulting from tariffs has prompted investors to flee to currencies deemed safer, such as the euro.
GBP/USD: The British pound followed a similar trajectory, gaining against the dollar. Although Brexit remains a hot topic, the weakness of the dollar has given the British currency some respite.
USD/JPY: The Japanese yen, traditionally considered a safe haven, benefited from the uncertainty, appreciating against the dollar. A flow of capital into Japan was a direct result of the change in risk perception.
Effects on the Chinese RMB
The Chinese currency, the renminbi (RMB), has also fluctuated significantly. While China is trying to limit the effect of tariffs on its domestic market, the market response has been cautious. In particular, investors are preparing for a possible controlled devaluation of the renminbi, with the intention of maintaining the competitiveness of Chinese exports, which could suffer from higher tariffs.
The Role of Central Banks
Another factor that cannot be ignored in this context is the approach of central banks. The US Federal Reserve (Fed) could decide to review its monetary policies to counter the negative effects of tariffs on the dollar. We could see an easing of monetary policy or even a reduction in interest rates, unless the Fed wants to contain the rising inflation caused by tariffs.
On the other hand, the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) could be forced to take measures to support the Chinese economy. The possibility of a currency intervention could have significant effects not only on Forex, but also on other asset classes such as commodities and stock markets.
How to Capitalize on the Situation in Forex Trading
The developments surrounding the US-China trade war are a boon for Forex traders, provided they are able to carefully monitor the news and react quickly. Here are some strategies to consider:
Breakout Trades: The news of the tariffs has triggered significant movements, and experienced traders can look to enter breakout trades on the most volatile currency pairs. This involves looking to enter long or short positions when a currency pair breaks out of certain support or resistance levels.
Risk-Based Strategies: The uncertainties surrounding the trade war can force traders to be more selective in their trades. Careful risk management strategies, such as risk-reward ratios and stop-loss orders, are essential to navigate the turbulent waters.
Monitoring Central Bank Statements: Any signals from the Fed or the PBoC are crucial. Traders should be prepared to react quickly to any changes in monetary policies, as they can immediately impact the value of the currencies involved.
Final Thoughts
China’s decision to impose new tariffs on the United States marks a new phase in the trade war between the two economic powers. In an already volatile Forex market, this move adds further uncertainty, with the USD likely to face a period of weakness while other emerging currencies, such as the renminbi, could suffer mixed effects.
Happy trading to all.
Andrea Russo
Understanding Market Activity in CryptoMarket activity measures the level of trading intensity in a market. It includes transaction volume, price fluctuations, supply and demand, and how different participants interact. In crypto, this is reflected in metrics like trading volume, liquidity, and order book depth.
Example: Bitcoin ( BTC ) trading volume spikes when major news (e.g., ETF approvals) or macroeconomic events occur. This increased activity shows how market sentiment drives price movement.
Who Are the Market Participants?
Market participants are anyone buying or selling an asset. In crypto, this includes:
- Retail traders (individuals buying BTC, ETH, etc.)
- Institutional investors (hedge funds, large companies)
- Market makers (liquidity providers ensuring smooth order flow)
- Miners & validators (securing the network and earning rewards)
The more participants in a market, the more liquid it becomes, making price movements smoother and reducing volatility.
Example: Bigger CEX have a deeper liquidity than a small DEX, meaning orders execute faster with less slippage.
Price + Time = Value (Crypto Perspective)
One fundamental rule in markets is:
➡️ Price + Time = Value
This means that an asset’s value is determined not just by its price but also by how long people are willing to hold or trade it.
Example: A long-term BTC holder who bought at $1,000 and held for 5 years sees a much different "value" than a day trader who flips BTC in minutes.
Additionally, crypto markets always have price levels that attract buyers and sellers (support and resistance levels).
Example: Bitcoin's $20,000 level in past cycles acted as both strong support and resistance, attracting buyers when the price dipped and sellers when it surged.
Market Analysis & Price Patterns (Normal Distribution in Crypto)
To analyze market activity, traders break price movements into time segments. One useful tool is the normal distribution curve, which shows where most trades happen.
Example: In on-chain analysis, if most Bitcoin transactions happen between $40,000–$45,000, this becomes the value area where market participants agree on price.
Crypto analogy: Think of a whale buying BTC in chunks over days, forming a distribution pattern. If they stop buying, price trends shift.
Supply & Demand in Crypto (Using a Bakery Analogy)
Markets function based on supply and demand. Imagine a bakery:
In the morning, fresh bread (high demand, low supply) = higher prices
By evening, leftover bread (low demand, excess supply) = discounted prices
The same happens in crypto:
New altcoin launch: Limited supply, high hype = price pumps
Token unlocks: More supply enters the market = price dumps
Example: When a project like Aptos (APT) unlocks millions of tokens, supply increases, and the price often drops due to selling pressure.
Short-Term vs. Long-Term Market Trends
Markets move in different timeframes—hourly, daily, weekly, and even yearly trends.
Short-term example: Ethereum’s price swings daily based on trader speculation.
Long-term example: Bitcoin halving cycles create multi-year trends that drive overall growth.
Example: In 2020, BTC was under $10K, but by 2021, it reached $69K due to long-term macro factors.
Crypto Market Makers (Real-World Examples)
Bitcoin Miners: Similar to a car company adjusting production, Bitcoin miners decide whether to sell mined BTC or hold it for higher prices.
2️⃣Whales & Institutions: Like property developers adjusting prices, whales accumulate crypto at low prices and distribute at highs.
3️⃣Liquidity Pools in DeFi: Like restaurants pricing meals based on demand, liquidity providers adjust fees and slippage in Uniswap pools.
Example: Alameda Research (before FTX collapsed) was a key market maker, providing liquidity across major crypto exchanges.
Long-Term Disruptions (Crypto Example: Ethereum vs. Bitcoin)
Long-term players reshape entire markets over time.
Example:
Bitcoin ( CRYPTOCAP:BTC ) was the first mover, dominating the crypto market for years.
Ethereum (ETH) introduced smart contracts, shifting activity from BTC to DeFi, NFTs, and Web3.
Now, new chains like Solana challenge ETH, forcing changes in network fees and scalability.
This mirrors how Japanese car companies disrupted the U.S. market, forcing competitors to evolve.
How to Spot Fair Prices in Crypto?
Markets always seek equilibrium—a price where buyers and sellers agree.
Example:
If a new altcoin doubles in price, but trading volume drops, it signals overvaluation.
If on-chain data shows steady BTC accumulation, it suggests a fair price floor forming.
➡️ Traders watch repeated transactions to gauge market sentiment.
Consumer Awareness in Crypto
As investors, we naturally understand how price and time impact value. However, we also need to watch long-term market participants like:
Whales (Smart Money): Who is accumulating?
On-Chain Data: Are large wallets buying or selling?
Institutional Trends: Are hedge funds moving into crypto?
📌 Example:
When Tesla bought #bitcoin in 2021, it signaled institutional confidence, but when they sold, market sentiment shifted.
Final Thoughts
Crypto markets follow the same supply and demand principles as traditional markets but with 24/7 trading, higher volatility, and unique tokenomics. Understanding market activity helps traders anticipate moves and make better investment decisions. 🚀
Hope you enjoyed the content I created, You can support with your likes and comments this idea so more people can watch!
✅Disclaimer: Please be aware of the risks involved in trading. This idea was made for educational purposes only not for financial Investment Purposes.
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• Look at my ideas about interesting altcoins in the related section down below ↓
• For more ideas please hit "Like" and "Follow"!
Leap Ahead with a Bearish Divergence on Gold FuturesThe Leap Trading Competition: A Chance to Trade Gold Futures
TradingView’s "The Leap" Trading Competition is an opportunity for traders to test their futures trading skills. Participants can trade select CME Group futures contracts, including Gold Futures (GC) and Micro Gold Futures (MGC).
Register and participate here: TradingView Competition Registration .
This article presents a structured short trade setup based on a bearish divergence identified using the Commodity Channel Index (CCI) and key pivot point levels for confirmation. The trade plan focuses on waiting for price to break below the pivot point at 2866.8 before executing the trade, with clear targets and risk management.
Identifying the Trade Setup
Bearish divergence occurs when price makes higher highs while an indicator, such as CCI, makes lower highs. This signals weakening momentum and a potential reversal. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) measures price deviations from its average and helps traders identify overbought or oversold conditions.
Pivot points are calculated from previous price action and serve as key support and resistance levels. The pivot at 2866.8 is the reference level in this setup. A breakdown below this level may suggest further downside momentum, increasing the probability of a successful short trade.
The trade plan combines CCI divergence with pivot point confirmation. While divergence signals a potential shift, entry is only considered if price trades below 2866.8. This approach reduces false signals and improves trade accuracy. The first target is set at 2823.0, aligning with an intermediate support level (S1), while the final target is near S2 at 2776.2, just above a UFO support zone.
Trade Plan and Risk Management
The short trade is triggered only if price trades below 2866.8. The stop loss is placed above the entry at a level ensuring at least a 3:1 reward-to-risk ratio.
Profit targets are structured to lock in gains progressively:
The first exit is at 2823.0, where partial profits can be taken.
The final exit is near 2776.2, positioned just above a UFO support level.
Stop placement may vary based on the trader’s preferred risk-reward ratio. Position sizing should be adjusted according to account size and market volatility.
Contract Specifications and Margin Requirements
Gold Futures (GC) details:
Full contract specs: GC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 100 troy ounces
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($10 per tick)
Margin requirements depend on broker conditions and market volatility. Currently around $12,500 per contract.
Micro Gold Futures (MGC) details:
Full contract specs: MGC Contract Specifications – CME Group
Contract size: 10 troy ounces (1/10th of GC)
Tick size: 0.10 per ounce ($1 per tick)
Lower margin requirements provide access to smaller traders. Currently around $1,250 per contract.
Leverage impacts both potential gains and losses. Traders should consider market conditions and margin requirements when adjusting position sizes.
Execution and Market Conditions
Before executing the trade, price must break below 2866.8. Additional confirmation can be sought through volume trends and price action signals.
If price does not break the pivot, the short setup is invalid. If price consolidates, traders should reassess momentum before committing to the trade.
Conclusion
Bearish CCI divergence signals potential market weakness, but confirmation from the pivot breakdown is key before executing a short trade. A structured approach with well-defined targets and risk management increases the probability of success.
For traders in The Leap Trading Competition, this setup highlights the importance of discipline, confirmation, and scaling out of trades to manage risk effectively.
When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies.
General Disclaimer:
The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
Price Action: Traps of Market MakersHave you ever felt confident about a market trend, only to watch the price suddenly reverse direction? Or found yourself following what seemed like a clear price movement, only to realize it was a false signal?
Don't blame yourself or your trading strategy. What you're experiencing is likely the work of market makers who strategically create traps to trigger stop losses and pending orders. In this post, we'll dive into these market traps – learning how to identify them, understanding their different types, and most importantly, discovering how to turn them into profitable opportunities.
What are market maker traps? At their core, market traps are deceptive price movements designed to create an illusion of a genuine trend, convincing traders to take positions before the market reverses course.
📍 1. The False Double Pattern Trap
At its core, most market traps manifest as false breakouts of key levels. One of the most common examples is the deceptive Double Top/Double Bottom pattern. If you have traded these patterns, you have probably noticed something interesting: the second top is often slightly higher than the first, while the second bottom tends to be slightly lower than the previous one. This contradicts the traditional pattern theory, which suggests the second top should be lower, indicating market weakness.
What's really happening here? Large market players deliberately push prices beyond these levels to trigger the stop losses and pending orders of smaller traders. Once they've captured this liquidity, the market reverses, revealing the trap.
📍 2. The Trend Continuation Trap
This trap is perhaps the most devastating for traders. Traditional market wisdom tells us that a bearish trend consists of progressively lower highs and lower lows. When a previous high gets broken, conventional technical analysis suggests the bearish trend has possibly ended. However, reality often plays out differently. The price might briefly break above a local maximum, triggering stop orders and creating the illusion of a trend reversal. Instead of reversing, though, the price continues its original downward trajectory. This phenomenon is particularly visible on shorter timeframes like M30 or H1, where the fake breakout typically spans several candles.
When you spot a breakout against an established trend, approach with caution – it's more likely to be a false signal than a genuine reversal. In contrast, during sideways market conditions, focus on trading bounces from the channel's boundaries (upper and lower borders). This more conservative approach can help protect you from these common traps.
📍 3. The News-Driven Trap
One of the most common traps occurs during news events. You've probably experienced it: price suddenly surges in one direction, breaks through a significant level, only to reverse sharply. This classic "fake-out" catches many traders on the wrong side of the market.
A key strategy for identifying these traps is to analyze multiple timeframes. Generally, you'll want to examine both higher and lower timeframes than your primary trading window. Remember: the higher the timeframe, the fewer traps you'll typically encounter, making your analysis more reliable.
📍 4. Session Opening Traps
Trading session transitions, particularly around the London open, often create another type of trap. You might notice one price direction before London opens, followed by a different movement at the session's start, which then reverses later. These movements typically trigger stop losses at key levels before reversing.
For detailed analysis of session traps, dropping down to smaller timeframes (15M) can reveal the true price action. For instance, you might spot a clear price rise followed by a decisive bounce off a significant level like 189.500.
When you see a breakout of any significant level – whether it's a round number or a local high/low during a trend correction – approach it with skepticism. Until price firmly establishes itself in the new zone with clear confirmation, consider the possibility that you're witnessing a trap designed to collect stop losses. Remember this fundamental truth: price is more likely to bounce from a level than break through it.
📍 Practical Tips on Trading Traps
◾️ Multi-Timeframe Analysis. The key to successfully trading traps begins with analyzing multiple timeframes. When you spot a breakout of an obvious level, switch to the timeframe where the movement appears most convincing. This helps you better understand the trap's structure and potential reversal points.
◾️ Entry and Risk Management. Timing your entry is crucial. Look for the first signals of price reversal, but remember - proper position sizing is essential. Keep your stop losses tight, as the market may still produce additional spikes that could prematurely end your trade. While this approach might take practice to master, the reward potential is significant - you can set take-profit targets up to 10 times larger than your stop loss.
◾️ Position Management. Once in the trade, actively manage your position. Move your stop loss to breakeven at the first appropriate opportunity to protect your capital.
📍 Conclusion
Trading traps effectively requires patience and practice. While this strategy can be challenging to master, the ability to recognize and capitalize on these traps gives you a significant edge in the market. Many traders fall victim to these traps; learning to spot them transforms you from potential prey into a skilled hunter. Take time to practice identifying these patterns before committing real capital, and start with smaller position sizes as you develop your skills.
Traders, If you liked this educational post🎓, give it a boost 🚀 and drop a comment 📣
Divergence Trading Explained For Beginners -DAX Pullback TradeTrading divergence in the Forex or Stock market can be an important tool. Learn how to identify divergences & practically apply them to your technical analysis to increase your edge & profits in the financial markets.
In this video you'll learn
What is a bullish and bearish divergence
How to use divergence to spot potential reversals in the market
How to use volume to identify key levels of reversals
How to measure out a "Kill Zone"
What are tweezer tops & tweezer bottoms & why they are important
How to use the Fibonacci retracement tool
How to use the Relative Strength Index (RSI Indicator)
Your Trading Coach - Akil
Gann Time Cycles Strategy: How To Predict Market Highs & Lows ?Gann Time Cycles Strategy: Predict Market Highs & Lows with Precision.
Mastering Gann Time Cycles: The Key to Predicting Market Highs & Lows
In this Gann trading strategy on time cycles, we explore a powerful method to predict market highs, lows, and reversals with precision. Gann’s theory is based on the principle that time governs market movements and that price action follows a structured mathematical cycle. By understanding and applying Gann Time Cycles, traders can identify key turning points well in advance, giving them a significant edge in the market.
The Importance of Time in Market Movements
W.D. Gann famously stated that "Time is more important than price. When the time is up, the market will reverse based on time." This means that while price levels are crucial, it is the time factor that ultimately determines when the market will make a major move. By analyzing Gann’s time cycles, we can predict periods where a reversal or a strong trend continuation is likely to occur.
📌 Timestamps: Gann Time-Price Squares: The Secret to Predicting Market Highs & Lows
00:00 ▶️ Introduction.
00:25 ▶️ Risk Disclaimer.
01:30 ▶️ What is Gann Time and Price Square.
02:10 ▶️ Key Numbers in Gann's Method
03:10 ▶️ Constructing Time and Price Squares
04:19 ▶️ Step 1 - Identify a Major Swing High or Low
05:18 ▶️ Step 2 - Apply Gann’s Time Cycles
05:39 ▶️ Step 3 - Draw a Gann Square
06:15 ▶️ Step 4 - Look for Price Reactions at Time Point
06:45 ▶️ Step 5 - Use Gann Angles for Confirmation
07:20 ▶️ Step 6 - Confirm with Market Behavior
07:50 ▶️ Step 7 - Set Entry, Stop-Loss, and Take Profit
08:30 ▶️ Gann Time-Price Squares: The Secret to Predicting Market Highs & Lows | Example - 1
14:00 ▶️ Gann Time-Price Squares: The Secret to Predicting Market Highs & Lows | Example - 2
16:50▶️ Conclusion & Key Takeaways
Applying Gann’s Time Cycles to Identify Market Turning Points
To successfully use this strategy, traders need to:
✅ Identify major swing highs and lows in the market
✅ Apply Gann’s time cycles to determine potential reversal points
✅ Use the Gann Square in TradingView to map key price levels
✅ Recognize time-price intersections to pinpoint entry opportunities
✅ Utilize Gann angles for additional confirmation
✅ Set proper entry points, stop-losses, and take-profits based on time predictions
By integrating these steps into your trading plan, you can improve your entry and exit accuracy and anticipate market movements before they happen.
Conclusion: Why Gann Time Cycles Are a Game-Changer
Gann’s Time Cycles provide traders with an advanced forecasting tool that allows them to anticipate market movements with greater precision. Unlike traditional technical indicators that rely on lagging price data, Gann’s method allows you to predict future reversals before they happen, giving you an edge over other traders.
If you apply this strategy correctly, you will begin to see the certainty within the randomness of the market. The key is to remain disciplined, test these time cycles on real charts, and refine your understanding through consistent practice.
A detailed explanation of parallel price channels and how to use📚 A detailed explanation of parallel price channels and how to use them in technical analysis 📈
Parallel price channels are one of the most important technical analysis tools that help traders identify **trends, entry and exit points, and potential levels of reversal or breakout**.
---
## **🟢 First: What is a parallel price channel?**
A parallel price channel is a **price range within which the price moves regularly**, and is defined by **two parallel lines** that represent **dynamic support and resistance**.
📌 Channels can be:
1️⃣ **Ascending**: When the price is in an upward trend with increasing bottoms and tops.
2️⃣ **Downward**: When the price is in a downward trend with decreasing bottoms and tops.
3️⃣ **Horizontal (Sideways)**: When the price moves sideways between fixed levels.
---
## **🟢 Second: Components of the price channel**
🔹 **The upper limit of the channel (moving resistance)**: Represents a selling area where the price tends to reverse downward when touched.
🔹 **The lower limit of the channel (moving support)**: Represents a buying area where the price tends to rebound upward when touched.
🔹 **The middle line (in some channels)**: Helps identify rebound and balance points within the channel.
---
## **🟢 Third: How to draw a price channel?**
### **✏️ Steps to draw a price channel manually:**
1️⃣ Determine the market direction (upward, downward, sideways).
2️⃣ Draw the main trend line by connecting **two major peaks or bottoms**.
3️⃣ Copy this line and place it **parallel** on the other side of the price to form the channel.
4️⃣ Make sure that the price moves between the two lines logically without a clear breakout.
✍ **Practical example:**
📈 If you have two rising bottoms in an upward trend, you can draw a line that passes through them and then copy it upwards at the peaks, to form an ascending channel.
---
## **🟢 Fourth: How to use the price channel in trading?**
### **1️⃣ Trading inside the channel** (Strategy 1)
✅ **Buy from the lower limit of the channel** (at the moving support).
✅ **Sell at the upper limit of the channel** (at the moving resistance).
📌 This strategy is effective in stable markets without strong breakouts.
📍 **Example of trading inside the channel:**
- In the ascending channel, if the price touches the lower limit, the purchase is made with a **stop loss below the channel**.
- In the descending channel, if the price touches the upper limit, the sale is made with a **stop loss above the channel**.
---
### **2️⃣ Trading when the channel is broken** (Strategy 2)
🔴 **Breaking the upper limit of the channel** → indicates **continuation of the upward trend** (buy signal).
🔴 **Breaking the lower limit of the channel** → indicates **continuation of the downward trend** (sell signal).
📍 **Example of breaking the channel:**
- If the price is inside an ascending channel, then **breaks the upper limit**, a **buy deal** can be entered after a retest.
- If the price is inside a descending channel, then **breaks the lower limit**, a **sell deal** can be entered after a retest.
---
## **🟢 Fifth: Analysis of the attached image**
✅ **In the attached chart, we have an ascending channel within a downward trend**, and the channel was broken downwards, which led to **continuation of the downward trend**.
✅ Areas have been identified:
- **SL (Stop Loss)** → Stop loss above the channel to prevent risks.
- **LOGIN** → Entry point after breaking the channel.
- **TP (Take Profit)** → Take profits based on the channel size.
---
## **🟢 Sixth: Professional tips for using price channels**
💡 **Combine them with other indicators** such as RSI or MACD to confirm signals.
💡 **Monitoring volume**: When the channel is broken with high trading volume, the break is stronger.
💡 **Time analysis**: Using channels on different frames gives better accuracy.
💡 **Use appropriate stop loss** to protect capital from false breakouts.
---
🚀 **💡 Summary:** Price channels are a powerful tool for identifying trends and entry and exit points, and are used in trading within the channel or when a price break occurs. Their accuracy can be improved by combining them with other indicators and understanding volume and price momentum.
Bitcoin Seasonality - Best Month (October) and Best Day (Monday)It's very important for every Bitcoin trader to know its seasonality because this will significantly increase the probability of successful trades. I have been trading Bitcoin for almost 10 years, and I successfully use seasonality patterns to predict Bitcoin price movements. For example, you don't want to go long on Bitcoin during August or September; that's probably a very bad idea. The biggest market crashes usually happen in September. But you definitely want to go long in October or April, as these months are the most promising. Knowledge of these patterns will give you an advantage over standard retail traders. Every trade matters.
Average return by Month (%)
January: +5.1%
February: +12.1%
March: +4.8%
April: ˇ+18.7%
May: +14.2%
June: +4.4%
July: +6.1%
August: -3.1%
September: -8.4%
October: +22.2%
November: +17.9%
December: +7.3%
Average return by Weekday (%)
Monday: +0.63%
Tuesday: +0.18%
Wednesday: +0.54%
Thursday: +0.40%
Friday: +0.37%
Saturday: +0.45%
Sunday: +0.10%
Currently I am bullish on Bitcoin as the price is in an uptrend and the bear market is not confirmed; I expect Bitcoin to hit 115k probably at the end of February. What I also expect is an alt season - alt season is starting right now! So it's time to buy some altcoins. Ethereum should outperform BTC in the next weeks as well.
Write a comment with your altcoin, and I will make an analysis for you in response. Also, please hit boost and follow for more ideas. Trading is not hard if you have a good coach! This is not a trade setup, as there is no stop-loss or profit target. I share my trades privately. Thank you, and I wish you successful trades!
How to Get Funded and Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025?How to Get Funded and Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025: A Step-by-Step Action Plan
With prop trading firms offering funding to skilled traders, 2025 presents an excellent opportunity to trade with significant capital while limiting your personal risk. Here’s a detailed roadmap to getting funded and becoming a successful prop trader in the forex market.
________________________________________
📌 Step 1: Build a Profitable Trading Strategy
Before applying to a prop firm, you need a tested and profitable strategy that aligns with prop firm risk rules. Here’s what to focus on:
✅ Choose a Trading Style
• Scalping – Quick, small trades (requires low spreads and fast execution).
• Day Trading – Intraday trades with clear setups (most prop firms allow).
• Swing Trading – Holding trades for days/weeks (lower stress, fits many prop firm rules).
• Algorithmic Trading – Using bots or EAs (some firms allow automation).
✅ Develop a High-Probability Edge
• Top-Down Technical Analysis (Identify trends using multiple timeframes).
• Price Action & Market Structure (Support/resistance, breakouts, trendlines).
• Risk-Reward Ratios (Aim for at least 1:2 RR on trades).
• News & Fundamentals (FOMC, NFP, CPI, interest rate decisions).
✅ Backtest & Optimize Your Strategy
• Use Forex Tester 5 or TradingView’s replay mode to test past market conditions.
• Run at least 100-200 trades in a demo account.
• Maintain a win rate above 50% with an R:R of 1:2 or higher.
________________________________________
📌 Step 2: Master Risk & Money Management
Most prop firms fail traders due to poor risk management. Here’s how to avoid that:
✅ Follow Strict Drawdown Rules
• Daily Drawdown: Most firms allow 5% max daily loss.
• Overall Drawdown: 8-10% max loss before account termination.
• Solution: Risk only 0.5% - 1% per trade.
✅ Position Sizing
• Lot Size Calculator: Always use a calculator to match risk per trade.
• Adjust for Volatility: Trade smaller lots on high-impact news days.
✅ Risk-Adjusted Growth
• Withdraw profits monthly to secure earnings.
• Scale up gradually instead of over-leveraging.
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📌 Step 3: Get Funded by a Prop Firm
🚀 Top Prop Firms in 2025 for Forex Traders
• FTMO – Up to $400,000 funding, 90% profit share.
• My Forex Funds (MFF) – Up to $600,000 funding, 85% profit split.
• The Funded Trader – 80-90% profit split, offers aggressive scaling.
• Fidelcrest – Allows scalping, news trading, and EAs.
• E8 Funding – Low drawdown rules, 80% split.
📈 How to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge
Most firms require a two-phase evaluation:
1. Phase 1: Profit target (8-10%) within 30 days without exceeding the daily/overall drawdown.
2. Phase 2: Lower profit target (4-5%) within 60 days with the same risk rules.
3. Funded Stage: Trade firm capital with a profit split (usually 75-90% to the trader).
🛠️ Pro Tips to Pass a Prop Firm Challenge
✅ Risk only 0.5% per trade (low risk = higher success rate).
✅ Trade high-probability setups only (2-3 trades per day max).
✅ Avoid trading the first & last 15 minutes of sessions (high spreads).
✅ Use a prop firm challenge simulator before applying.
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📌 Step 4: Optimize & Scale Your Trading Career
🔹 Get Multiple Funded Accounts
• Many firms allow traders to manage multiple accounts.
• Use copy trading software (e.g., Trade Copier, FXBlue) to replicate trades across accounts.
• Some firms have a combined max funding of over $2 million.
🔹 Transition to a Full-Time Forex Trader
1. Withdraw Profits Monthly – Secure earnings and reinvest.
2. Diversify Income Streams – Consider trading signals, coaching, or selling EAs.
3. Trade with Institutional Mindset – Focus on consistency over big wins.
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📌 Step 5: Use Trading Tools & AI Bots for an Edge
🔹 Best Forex Trading Tools in 2025
📊 TradingView & MT5 – Best for charting & analysis.
📉 AutoRisk Calculator – Automates lot sizing based on risk %.
🤖 AI & Algo Bots – AI-powered news sentiment analysis & high-frequency trading.
📅 Forex Factory & Myfxbook – Economic calendar & trade tracking.
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📌 Step 6: Stay Ahead in the Forex Market
🚀 Follow Pro Traders – Learn from institutions & hedge funds.
📊 Analyze Market Cycles – 2025 will be affected by interest rates & global policies.
📉 Avoid Overtrading – Focus on quality over quantity.
📈 Invest in Continuous Learning – Join trading communities & courses.
________________________________________
🎯 Final Thoughts: The Fastest Way to Become a Forex Prop Trader in 2025
✅ Develop a tested, profitable strategy.
✅ Master risk & money management.
✅ Apply to top prop firms & pass the evaluation.
✅ Scale with multiple funded accounts.
✅ Stay disciplined, patient, and focused on long-term success.
Gold Longterm Sentiment IndexUpdate 2 indicators:
1: HUI,XAU and GOLD Ratio Analysis
2: Cyber.Gold Sentiment Longterm Index
TT
I wonder when TradingView will ban
publish my indicator.
The platform with the stupid rules.
The relationship between HUI,XAU,GDX
HUI: Gold mining company performance stock
XAU: Gold mining company stock bakjc,metal
GDX: Tracks the performance of the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index (GDM) including large-cap companies
Source:
byvn.net
seekingalpha.com
Ichimoku Theories - Complicated? Keep it SimpleNYMEX:CL1!
The Ichimoku Strategy is a technical analysis method using the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator, which helps traders identify trends, support/resistance levels, and potential trade signals. It consists of five key components:
Ichimoku Indicator Components:
1. Tenkan-sen (Conversion Line): (9-period moving average)
• Short-term trend indicator.
• A sharp slope suggests strong momentum.
2. Kijun-sen (Base Line): (26-period moving average)
• Medium-term trend indicator.
• Acts as a support/resistance level.
3. Senkou Span A (Leading Span A): ((Tenkan-sen + Kijun-sen) / 2, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• Forms one edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• A rising Span A suggests an uptrend.
4. Senkou Span B (Leading Span B): (52-period moving average, plotted 26 periods ahead)
• The second edge of the Kumo (Cloud).
• When Span A is above Span B, the cloud is bullish (green); when Span A is below Span B, it’s bearish (red).
5. Chikou Span (Lagging Span): (Closing price plotted 26 periods behind)
• Confirms trend direction.
• If Chikou Span is above past prices, it signals bullish momentum.
Trading Strategies Using Ichimoku
1. Kumo Breakout Strategy
• Buy when the price breaks above the Kumo (Cloud).
• Sell when the price breaks below the Kumo.
2. Tenkan-Kijun Cross Strategy
• Bullish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses above Kijun-sen.
• Bearish signal: Tenkan-sen crosses below Kijun-sen.
3. Chikou Span Confirmation
• Buy when Chikou Span is above past price action.
• Sell when Chikou Span is below past price action.
4. Kumo Twist
• When Senkou Span A crosses above Senkou Span B, it signals a potential bullish reversal.
• When Senkou Span A crosses below Senkou Span B, it suggests a bearish reversal.
5. Trend Confirmation
• Price above the cloud = bullish trend.
• Price inside the cloud = consolidation.
• Price below the cloud = bearish trend.
Advantages of Ichimoku Strategy
✅ Provides a comprehensive market view (trend, momentum, support/resistance).
✅ Works well in trending markets.
✅ Offers clear entry and exit signals.
Limitations
❌ Less effective in ranging or choppy markets.
❌ Can be complex for beginners.
❌ Requires confirmation with other indicators (e.g., RSI, MACD).
Trade Smart - Trade Safe 🚀
Multi-Timeframe Volume Profile and Divergence StrategyObjective:
To combine multi-timeframe analysis, volume profile insights, and divergence patterns for identifying high-probability trades.
1. Strategy Components
A. Multi-Timeframe Analysis:
Use three timeframes for analysis:
Higher timeframe (HTF): To identify the overall trend (e.g., Weekly/4H).
Intermediate timeframe (ITF): For spotting critical support/resistance zones (e.g., Daily/1H).
Lower timeframe (LTF): For precise entry and exit signals (e.g., 15M/5M).
B. Volume Profile:
Incorporate Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR):
Identify key areas: Point of Control (POC), High Volume Nodes (HVN), and Low Volume Nodes (LVN).
Use these levels as dynamic support and resistance.
C. Divergence Patterns:
Look for Bullish Divergence and Bearish Divergence on oscillators like:
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
MACD
Stochastic RSI
Combine divergences with price action near significant volume levels.
D. Additional Tools:
200 EMA (Exponential Moving Average): For trend direction.
ATR (Average True Range): For stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Fibonacci Retracement: For confluence with volume profile levels.
2. Trading Plan
Step 1: Higher Timeframe Trend Identification
Use the HTF to establish whether the market is in an uptrend, downtrend, or range.
Mark key swing highs, lows, and supply/demand zones.
Step 2: Intermediate Timeframe Analysis
Apply the Volume Profile on the ITF to find:
POC: Indicates price consensus.
HVN/LVN: Potential zones for reversals or continuation.
Watch for price approaching these levels.
Step 3: Lower Timeframe Execution
Monitor LTF for:
Divergence signals on oscillators.
Candle patterns like pin bars, engulfing candles, or inside bars at significant levels.
Confirm trades using:
Price breaking out of LVN or rejecting HVN.
Crossovers of EMA for extra confirmation.
3. Entry, Stop Loss, and Take Profi t
Entry:
Long Position:
Price reacts at HVN/LVN near a support level.
Bullish divergence on LTF.
Short Position:
Price tests HVN/LVN near resistance.
Bearish divergence on LTF.
Stop Loss:
Place just beyond recent swing high/low or above/below the LVN/HVN zone.
Use ATR (1.5x) for volatility-based placement.
Take Profit:
First target: Nearby POC or Fibonacci levels.
Second target: HTF supply/demand zone
