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Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders. One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on? 📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out. Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout. 💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action. To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack. If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell. 👉👈 Who’s Right? Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality. The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news. 💡 Why It Matters Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs. Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller. 💚 Final Thoughts Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you. So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
33
Marking MC, and Signal BarTo mark the Master Candle (MC), wait for the price to cross and close 7EMA. Then look to the left of the candle that crossed and closed it. In most cases, the MC is directly in front of this candle. As it's shown in the chart, Candle X has crossed and closed 7EMA. So, candle Y is the MC. Bullish Signal Bar: a green Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's upper shadow. Bearish Signal Bar: a red Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's lower shadow. Note 1: Signal Bar can be spotted via Candlestick Math too. This means we consider the opening price of the first and the closing price of the last candle. If these candles add to a valid Signal Bar, we consider it as a signal to go in trade. Note 2: the only situations that Signal Bar is valid: For trading in the opposite direction of the trend, we should be in a ranging market (inside the MC range), and the price should have toughed MC levels and BB (Bollinger Bands). For trading in the direction of the trend, the price should have at least touched an MC level and one of the EMAs. As we see, summation of candles X & Y was not a bearish Pinbar. So, we don't have a valid signal to go short after candle Y. In these situations we expect the price to go higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
1
Different Types of W Patterns and How to Trade ThemHello dear KIU_COIN family 🐺 . Recently, I decided to provide some educational content for you, my dear audience, and introduce some essential and basic trading terms. Here’s what you should know: In these lessons, we will cover three different seasons: 🔹 Season 1: Reversal and continuation patterns. 🔹 Season 2: How to use RSI and other indicators to find good entry points. 🔹 Season 3: Definitions of Fibonacci and seasonality in trading. Stay tuned for valuable insights! 🚀 ✅ For the first section of 🔹 Season 1 , I’ll be covering W patterns— a well-known bullish reversal pattern : As you can see in the chart above, we usually have three types of W recovery patterns , which are the most important ones for us. However, in this section, we just want to get a general understanding of them. In the upcoming section, we will learn how to trade them and explore how they actually appear on the chart and the story behind them ! ✅ This is the first and most common type of W pattern: ✅ This is the second type of W pattern: ✅ This is the third type of W pattern: Ok, guys; I think this is enough for today, and I hope you enjoyed this educational content. However, don't forget to ask your questions below and support me with your likes and follows for more of this content. 🐺🔥
Education
by Kiu_Coin
The Questions That Matter, How, What and WhenTrading Into Key Areas: The Questions That Matter, How, What and When 📌 "Price has reached a key level—now what?" Many traders fixate on areas where price should react but fail to ask why it might react or how it arrived there. To improve decision-making, we need a structured approach that goes beyond simply marking levels on a chart. But understand this—trading is not merely about lines on a chart. It is about navigating complexity with clarity. The market is a vast, dynamic system, governed by the collective psychology of its participants. If you fail to structure your thinking properly, you will become lost in randomness, reacting emotionally instead of acting with discipline. Let’s impose order on the chaos. The Three Critical Questions ✅ 1. How did price arrive? A slow, controlled approach (efficient) suggests institutional order flow—the kind of deliberate, structured movement that signals purpose. A rapid, impulsive move (inefficient) hints at imbalances that may need correcting—gaps in liquidity that create instability. Has liquidity been built up or absorbed? Markets, like nature, do not tolerate inefficiency forever. ✅ 2. What are our expectations? Are we reacting to a level just because it looks right? Because it feels right? Beware of the trap of wishful thinking—price does not care what you believe. Does this area align with broader market structure (e.g. range extremes, supply/demand zones)? Are we leaning on experience or just bias? Are we seeing what is there, or only what we want to see? ✅ 3. What time has price reached this area? Session timing matters—a reaction at a level during the London Open carries more weight than during low-volume periods. Upcoming data releases can shift sentiment instantly—are you trading ahead of event risk, or blindly walking into volatility? Trade With Logic, Not Emotion The market is a relentless teacher, and those who refuse to ask the right questions will be punished accordingly. When price reaches a key area, think before reacting. Ask yourself: "Am I trading the market as it is, or as I wish it to be?" Because the difference between success and failure in trading is the difference between seeing reality for what it is and being blinded by your own assumptions. ⚡ Question: Do you have a checklist for trading key levels? Feel free to comment!
TVC:DXYEducation
by SERVER_SEVEN
Bearish Phase Continues: XRP's 25% Decline Possible Target $1.80Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 2 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 2 concise lines at the end. I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of market and Ripple. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Ripple: It is conceivable that we may witness upward candlestick formations as part of the completion of the ongoing bearish phase. I have depicted this potential scenario clearly on the chart, which should provide clarity on the matter. However, there remains a distinct possibility that Ripple may experience further depreciation from this point. In fact, I foresee an additional decline of at least 25% for this asset, with a target price set at $1.80. The bearish cycle we are currently observing is far from over. One of the significant indicators of its continuation is the failure of spot prices to rise in proportion to their potential, despite initial expectations. Furthermore, these spot prices have consistently fallen in response to Bitcoin's periodic downturns and have not been able to recover their losses following Bitcoin's price recoveries. In simpler terms, it appears that the much-discussed altcoin season in the market has been short-lived. This was particularly evident for certain altcoins, including highly regarded ones such as Ethereum, which failed to achieve the levels of growth many had anticipated. This brings me to a critical observation: why, when Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high, was Ethereum unable to surpass the $5000 threshold? The question becomes even more pressing when we consider that after a market correction, during which Bitcoin regained its position, many other altcoins continued to slide, indicating a lack of positive momentum in the broader market. These factors point to a larger trend of ongoing market weakness, suggesting that additional declines may be inevitable. The inability of Ethereum and other altcoins to capitalize on Bitcoin's strength, especially during a bull run, signals a more complex and challenging market environment. This ongoing pattern highlights the fragility of altcoins, particularly in relation to Bitcoin's dominant influence. Therefore, it seems prudent to expect further downward pressure across the board as we navigate the remaining phases of this cycle." This version aims to be more in-depth, offering both an analysis of the current situation and an explanation of potential future market movements, all while maintaining a professional and polished tone. However , This analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in crypto market and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 We might see some upward candles as part of the current bearish phase, but Ripple could still drop another 25%, with a target price of $1.80. The ongoing market weakness is evident, as spot prices aren’t growing as expected, and altcoins like Ethereum couldn’t capitalize on Bitcoin’s new all-time high. This suggests more declines ahead for the broader market. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
9
Understanding Fibonacci ExtensionsUnderstanding Fibonacci Extensions Have you ever noticed that market movements often occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal. A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios Fibonacci ratios originate from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34). The key ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, is approximately 1.618. This is calculated by dividing a number in the sequence by its immediate predecessor (e.g., 34 ÷ 21 ≈ 1.619). Conversely, dividing a number by the next number yields approximately 0.618 (e.g., 21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.618). In trading, these ratios are used to identify potential support and resistance levels through Fibonacci retracements and extensions: - Fibonacci Retracements. These indicate where the price might pull back within an existing trend. Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. They are derived from the ratios between numbers in the sequence and are applied to measure potential correction points. - Fibonacci Extensions. These project potential price targets beyond the current range. Key extension levels include 100%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. They are calculated by extending the Fibonacci ratios past the 100% level to anticipate where the price might move following a retracement. Note that these ratios can be expressed as either integers or percentages, e.g. 0.618 or 61.8%. What Are Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they are considered as areas of interest rather than where the price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries. Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis might be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets. Fibonacci Retracements vs. Extensions Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. The former shows support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. The latter measures the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred. As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where the price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where the price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse. It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build a strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, and then take potential profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits. Fib Extensions: How to Use Them in a Trading Strategy If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow. - Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness. - Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction. - Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected. That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours. Bullish Example In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound. Bearish Example Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade. However, the most common way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the dotted line between extensions. Once the price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal. Some traders believe that if the price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, the price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher. How Can You Confirm Fib Extensions? While Fibonacci extensions suggest potential areas where price movements may reverse or stall, traders often seek additional confirmation to enhance their confidence in these levels. Here are some methods traders typically use to validate Fib extension levels. - Confluence with Other Fibonacci Levels. Traders can look for alignment between Fibonacci extensions and retracements from different timeframes or price swings. This overlap may indicate a more significant level where the price could react. - Support and Resistance Zones. If a Fibonacci extension level coincides with established support or resistance areas on the chart, it can reinforce the likelihood of a market response at that point. - Candlestick Patterns. Observing specific candlestick formations, such as doji, hammer, or engulfing patterns at Fibonacci extensions, can provide insights into potential reversals or continuations. - Technical Indicators. Incorporating indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD can help confirm the validity of a Fibonacci extension level. For example, if the RSI indicates overbought conditions at a key extension level, traders might anticipate a pullback. - Trendlines and Chart Patterns. Aligning Fibonacci extensions with trendlines or chart patterns like the Head and Shoulders can offer additional confirmation. Traders often find that extension levels intersecting with these tools carry more significance. - Volume Analysis. An increase in trading volume near a Fibonacci extension level may suggest stronger market interest, potentially validating the importance of that level. - Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Traders might analyse Fibonacci extensions across various timeframes to identify consistent levels of interest. A level that appears significant on both charts could be considered more reliable. - Market Sentiment and News Events. While primarily technical, acknowledging fundamental factors such as economic news or market sentiment can help traders assess whether a Fibonacci extension level might hold or be surpassed. Limitations of Fibonacci Extensions Fibonacci extensions are valuable for projecting potential price targets, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Understanding these can lead to more informed use within a trading strategy. - Lack of Confidence in Price Movements. While based on mathematical ratios, Fibonacci extensions don't account for unexpected market events like economic news or geopolitical developments that can significantly impact prices. - Subjectivity in Point Selection. The effectiveness of extension levels hinges on correctly identifying swing highs and lows. Different traders may choose varying reference points, leading to inconsistent levels and interpretations. - Ineffectiveness in Certain Market Conditions. In sideways or highly volatile markets, prices may not respect Fib extensions, reducing their reliability as indicators of support or resistance. - Conflicting Signals Across Timeframes. Extension levels vary between different timeframes, potentially causing confusion and conflicting signals in analysis and decision-making. - Overreliance on Technicals. Focusing solely on Fib extensions might cause traders to overlook other critical technical indicators or fundamental factors influencing the market. - Unnatural Price Movements. Widespread use of Fibonacci levels can lead to price reactions simply because many traders expect them, creating artificial support or resistance that may not hold. - Psychological Biases. Traders might experience confirmation bias, seeing what they expect at Fib levels, which can lead to misguided trading decisions. Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two points you may consider to improve your trading strategy. - Look for confirmation. Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that the price is starting to reverse at the area before taking potential profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above. - Find confluence. Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level. Your Next Steps Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could get involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns? Good luck! FAQ How Can You Use Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions help traders identify potential future support and resistance levels beyond the current price range. To use them, traders select three points: the start of a trend, its end, and the retracement point. They then apply the Fibonacci extension tool to project where the price may move following a retracement. How Should You Draw Fibonacci Extensions? The process starts with choosing the trend-based Fib extension tool in your charting software. Then, the next step is to select the swing low/high (start of the trend), then the swing high/low (end of the trend), and finally the retracement low/high. The tool will display extension levels indicating possible future price targets. What Is the Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions? Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback within an existing trend. Extensions, on the other hand, project levels beyond the current price range, indicating where the price might move after the retracement. Retracements focus on corrections; extensions focus on trend continuations. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
7
Making money in a downtrend - J is WILDI chose J as my public idea for the day for a lot of reasons -it’s my best idea of the day (it’s #11 on my composite score list) -covering a span of over 1800 trades (real and backtested), it has an AVERAGE gain of 2.9%. -the 1 “losing” trade in all 1800+ was a signal from yesterday which I will boldly predict will become profitable too. -it has a per day held average gain of over 3x that of the S&P500 over those 1800+ trades -it’s right at support and has some more support further down both from previous highs and an unbroken uptrend line going back over 18 months -it has a track record of rebounding nicely after earnings “disappointments” -it’s trading in the middle of its 6 month range But I also chose it to illustrate a point about the way I trade, and it’s one that is very relevant and about to become more relevant, I think. When the market starts to show weakness, people get scared of trading long. And I get that - it’s a valid concern. It’s easier to make money in an uptrend - that’s why so many people who have traded NVDA over the last 2 years think they are amazing traders. Rising tides lift ALL boats, even leaky ones. But making money in ANY environment is the difference maker. J is down a little over 11% in the last 3 months or so. It is in the middle of a legitimate Wall Street definition of a correction. I am not picking the bottom here, or even trying to. That’s the point. I don’t care if this is the bottom. It’d be great if it was, but it doesn’t matter. Now I’m not saying my algo is the greatest thing ever (though it might be for me), but the WAY I use it is significant and it illustrates something ANYONE can do when a stock or markets are trending lower. During this correction, my algo has signaled 14 LONG trades, including today. 12 have been closed profitably and one was the long signal yesterday (#14 was today). Full disclosure: I didn’t actually trade that signal yesterday, but I am today. The average gain on the 13 prior to today (including yesterday's "loser"), DURING A CORRECTION, is +0.9%. Not only does it win, but it wins consistently even when stocks are trading lower. The key is as much how/when I exit as it is the algo and its entry signals. As soon as a lot is end of day profitable, it is gone. I don’t care how much I’ve made, it’s gone. And that is a secret to making money long during a downtrend. It helps a lot that my entry signals are good ones, but the key is GET OUT WITH A PROFIT. Don’t let the market take its money back. It’s the same thing casinos try to do when you win and they have the edge - keep you playing so they can get their money back. I trade the same way in uptrends too. That leaves some money on the table then, but I take it back on the way down when I’m making money instead of losing it - and you can too. The method I use works in almost every situation, on almost any stock. But its shining moment is when things are going downhill. Not just because it makes money, but because I don’t worry about timing and downtrends much any more. Some slides can get annoying under the right circumstances, but I don’t worry. This technique has worked in every major market downtrend in the last 50 years. Except for stocks that go to zero, it works on stocks in corrections or bear markets, though at a certain point even it will lose money (I’ll be posting an idea involving NVDA in that regard sometime relatively soon). But relatively small losses are easily regained, especially if the win rate is high (which it obviously is here). The key is avoiding the BIG losses and this technique does that very well. So I went long at the close at 132.19. Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NYSE:JEducation
by redwingcoach
4
10 tricks for developing discipline or here was WarrenIf you asked me, what is the most valuable trait an investor should have, I would call it the ability to follow your own rules. In other words, it is discipline. A novice investor can learn quickly, know all the features of the chosen strategy from A to Z, but it is unlikely that he will succeed without this trait. So, Warren Buffett called persistence your engine, and discipline the guarantee of a successful future. Imagine that you have sailed to an unusually beautiful island with the goal of finding a treasure chest. To achieve this, you have a map with a description of all the paths and turns that you need to take to reach your goal. However, after the first 100 meters of the path you understand that this island has a huge number of amazing plants, ripe fruits, and curious animals. All this is very interesting and attractive for you: firstly, you want to take a photo of a beautiful flower, secondly, try a tropical fruit, thirdly, play with a funny monkey. “Why not? This is a great chance!” you think. After a while, having enjoyed the life of the island, you realize that it is already evening, and it is easier to spend the night somewhere under a palm tree and continue the search for treasure tomorrow, during daylight hours. “That’s a smart idea!” you note and begin to prepare a place to sleep. In the morning, you wake up in a good mood, you are greeted by familiar flowers, fruits and a cheerful parrot. Since you already know all this, you decide to continue following the map to find the treasure today and sail on. The path is easy for you: the entire route is marked in advance, you just follow these instructions. So, here you are. At the roots of the largest palm tree, under many branches, there should be a treasure chest hidden. You clear away the branches, and here your expectation collides with a shocking reality. Instead of a chest, you see a hole, where at the bottom, with a wooden stick, is written: “Warren was here”. In this example, Warren had the same map as you. Moreover, he arrived on the island much later. The only difference is his model of achieving the goal. He understood that exploring the island was not a priority for him right now. Warren would be happy to return there, but this time with the goal of relaxing, perhaps on his brand-new ship. And while he came to the island to look for treasure, he is looking for it. Everything else, despite all its attractiveness, is for him a risk of not achieving the goal. I also think of my stock investing strategy as a map that helps me understand where I should turn in any given situation. The only thing that makes me follow the route is discipline. Unfortunately, I can't put the stock market on pause or ignore corporate news - they all require my attention. If I choose this path, I follow it. In other words, if I am not going to follow the recommendations of my map, then why did I choose this path? However, how difficult it is to look calmly at temptations. A man is not a robot. So we need some tricks that can help us with discipline. I think that in this regard, the most brilliant invention of mankind was and remains the alarm clock. No matter how much we sleep, when the alarm rings, we wake up. The most disciplined people even set several alarms to make sure they wake up! On the one hand, it irritates us like crazy, on the other hand, have you ever thought about how well it helps us relax? After all, there is no longer a need to wake up and determine the time by the brightness of the sun from the window - now we have an alarm clock! It turns out that discipline can be associated with pleasant things. By the way, on TradingView, such a brilliant invention is “Alerts”. I wrote about this function in the article: “A pill for missed opportunities” . I will only add that the alert system can be applied not only to the stock price, but also to the indicators that you use on the chart, as well as to a whole watch list. So, make a list of companies you want to keep an eye on. Then set alerts when a certain condition related to price or indicator value is reached. And finally, wait calmly. Yes, this is what will take up all your time - waiting. And believe me, it takes a lot of discipline to just wait. To develop this trait, I recommend creating habits that are organically linked to your strategy. For example, to decide about a deal, I constantly refer to news about the selected companies. It is significant for me to understand whether critical events have arisen that could influence my decision to open or close a position. However, regularly reading corporate news can hardly be called a fascinating activity for everyone. This is not looking at memes at all. Therefore, below I will give a few tricks that will help make this (and not only this) activity systemic: 1. Set your alarm for 1 hour before the stock market opens. Let this signal remind you that it is time to study the news on companies that have already been bought or are very close to being bought. 2. Make access to news as convenient as possible. Install the TradingView app on your phone, tablet, home computer or laptop. Don't have problems accessing information in any situation: if you are lying on the couch, sitting at the table or walking in the park. 3. Start with small steps. For example, start by reading only the headlines of news stories, rather than the entire story at once. Gradually increase the amount of incoming information. In one full hour, you can easily gather all the information you need to get a complete picture before the market opens. 4. Use modern technologies. For example, reading news from your voice assistant. This is convenient if you are on the move. 5. Combine your habit with another direction you are developing. For example, if you are learning a foreign language, practice reading the news in that language. 6. Organize public attention to your habit. For example, agree with your wife that for every time you skip a habit, you take her to a new restaurant (I think the most effective method for married men). Chat with like-minded people and/or post your thoughts on the news on social networks. The extra attention will motivate you to keep doing it. 7. Add a little joy to your news reading habit. If you like freshly squeezed juice, place a glass of it next to you. After the work you've done, be sure to thank yourself. For example, a delicious dessert or watching one episode of your favorite TV series. 8. Formulate your goal as follows: not to be someone who understands everything, but to be someone who never misses a single event. 9. Separately, I would like to draw attention to keeping a diary of your operations. This is an essential document that will help you track your progress - your Track Record. At the same time, it is one of the systemic habits. I recommend adding to Track Record information about cash transactions, trades, taxes, dividends, conditions that prompted you to open or close a position in shares. You can organize such a diary in any spreadsheet to calculate some of the metrics using formulas. Below, I will present the metrics that I use in my Track Record. All data in it will be provided as an example only. 10. And finally, I think it is significant to visualize your achievements not only in electronic form, but also to have a physical embodiment of your results. For example, these can be empty glass flasks where you can put coins or balls corresponding to certain actions: opening a position, closing a position with a profit, closing a position with a loss, paying dividends. One flask - one year. Such an installation will look beautiful in your room or office and will remind you of what you have finally achieved. You might even have some interesting stories to tell to curious guests who notice this piece of furniture.
NASDAQ:NVDAEducation
by Be_Capy
EMAs V.2This article will enhance the definition and guidelines for using EMA in the ARZ Trading System. General Conditions and Significance: Trend Direction: Price should pull back (at least once) and then resume making new highs/lows, with the candle body (uptrend/downtrend). Trend Strength: the steepness of the EMA slope. Ranging: If the EMA is flat or the price repeatedly crosses and closes without pullbacks, it indicates a range. Each EMA's usage: 7EMA: Spike and Master Candle Identification. Spike: a trending market based on 7EMA. Once the price is crossed and closed 7EMA with a candle body, look to the left to find the Master Candle. 20EMA: Minor Structure. Always trade in the direction of minor trends unless it’s a minor range. 50EMA: Major Structure. Serves as a key level to indicate default buying or selling conditions: if the price is above, it suggests buying; if below, it suggests selling. 100EMA and 200EMA: Just as a key level for analyzing price. Let's analyze this chart: In candle #1, the price has crossed and closed and created a new high. So it is a pullback and we are in an upward Spike. In candle, X price has crossed and closed below 7EMA, after giving at least one pullback to it. So we look to the left to find the MC (Master Candle) which is candle #2. In candle #3, the price has crossed and closed below 20EMA, so if in the future the price can't break the 7EMA upward, it most likely will continue a downward Spike until reaching the LTP of the MC (which happened after giving pullback to 7EMA in candle #4). We expect this behaviour. After breaking the LTP, although the candle is huge, it wasn't able to break the 50EMA (Exhaustion Candle). It is a sign of a possible reversal to the MC. Candle #6 is a Signal Bar (which will be covered in future) and confirms it. In the circled area, we are in MC (Ranging Market) and this type of behaviour is normal. Until we see another Signal Bar at #7 which is after rejecting the price from multiple levels (LTP, mid-LTP, 7EMA, 20EMA). A clear sign of continuing upward. In candle #8, the price crossed and closed above UTP, followed by a pullback and a higher close in candle #9. At the same time, we reached the next TP based on UTP_2. Becaused price has reached UTP_2, if 7EMA crossed and closed again we have to find a new MC. Candle #10 shows us that Candle #9 is the new MC. At candle #11 we have a Signal Bar at LTP and 20EMA. The perfect setup to go long!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
Gann Trading Strategy Lessons: Mastering Time & Price Cycles. Gann Trading Strategy Lessons: Mastering Gann’s Time & Price Cycle for Precise Market Reversals! In this Gann Trading Strategy Lessons, we dive deep into W.D. Gann’s powerful trading strategy using the 144-Time Cycle and 225-Price Cycle, specifically applied to the EUR/USD pair. This method helps traders identify high-probability reversal points by aligning time and price for precise market entries. What You’ll Learn: 1. Understanding Gann’s concept of periodic and rhythmic movements. 2. How to apply the 144-time cycle as a turning point in the market. 3. The significance of the 225-price cycle and why markets move in multiples of 225. 4. Step-by-step guide to spotting time and price equilibrium for trade setups 5. Real chart examples to see how this strategy works in live market conditions Key Levels to Watch: - Monitor 144, 288, and 432 bars for market reactions - Measure price movement in 225-pip cycles for trade confirmation - Use trading tools like TradingView’s date and price range tools to analyse charts effectively Why This Works: Gann believed that time and price must balance before a trend reversal occurs. This strategy allows traders to anticipate major moves, reduce risk, and enter trades at the best possible levels. 📌 Timestamps: Mastering Gann’s Time & Price Cycle for Precise Market Reversals. 00:00 ▶️ Introduction 00:52 ▶️ Financial Disclaimer. 01:19 ▶️ Gann’s Market Cycle Theory. 02:32 ▶️ Gann’s most important time cycles — The Gann 144-time cycle. 03:27 ▶️Gann Time and Price Analysis Using the 225-Price Cycle and Squaring Techniques. 04:38 ▶️ How to identify the Gann cycles on the charts. 06:04 ▶️ Gann Time & Price Cycle - Example 1 08:30 ▶️ Gann Time & Price Cycle - Example 2 10:59 ▶️ Gann Periodicity, Disharmony & Strength Points 12:00 ▶️ Gann Key Takeaways & Conclusion. Gann Trading Strategies with a focus on Time & Price Cycles, including the 255 and 144 cycles, to predict market reversals with precision. This lesson covers Gann’s price-time synchronization, squaring techniques, and cyclical patterns, helping traders identify key turning points and trend shifts accurately.
CAPITALCOM:US500Education
by GannAstroTrader
1
The Tariff War: America, Mexico, Canada, and China Dear readers, my name is Andrea Russo, and I am a trader. Today, I want to talk to you about a significant shift that is shaking global markets: the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, while China has introduced counter-tariffs. This strategic move is likely to have significant repercussions on international trade and global economic dynamics, with direct effects on currencies and the Forex market. Freezing Tariffs on Mexico and Canada: A Change in Strategy? Under the Biden administration, the United States has decided to freeze tariffs on Mexico and Canada, two vital trading partners. This move may seem like a de-escalation in the trade war, but it is actually an attempt to strengthen ties with neighboring countries, thus facilitating trade flow and stimulating the internal economy. With rising commodity prices and the ongoing energy crisis, Washington aims to avoid escalating tariffs that could further aggravate an already fragile economic situation. A Strategic Choice in an Unstable World Despite the good intentions, the global context remains uncertain. The decision to suspend tariffs is partly motivated by the need to slow down inflation and mitigate the negative effects on global supply chains, especially in North America. However, this could also be a signal that the United States is focusing on internal challenges before shifting its focus to a larger battle — the one with China. China’s Response: Counter-Tariffs and Retaliation On the other side, China has not delayed in responding by imposing new tariffs on U.S. goods, particularly in key sectors such as technology, agriculture, and automotive. These tariffs are expected to have a direct impact on U.S. companies that export to China but may also influence global trade dynamics. China has clearly made a strategic move, one that goes beyond economic revenge: it's a signal that Beijing is not willing to make concessions on an issue that is critical for its geopolitical standing. Impact on Financial Markets and Forex Now that we've outlined the key strategic moves, let's take a look at how these developments will affect financial markets, especially the Forex market. The combination of the potential tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada and the tightening tariffs on China will undoubtedly affect currency dynamics, creating both opportunities and risks for traders. 1. Impact on the U.S. Dollar (USD) The dollar may be influenced in contrasting ways by these developments. On the one hand, the tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada could be positive for the dollar, as it may favor a stronger North American economy, stimulating trade flows and reducing uncertainty. In particular, sectors such as automotive, energy, and agriculture may benefit from lower costs. On the other hand, tensions with China could continue to create geopolitical uncertainties, which historically have led to greater volatility in the dollar. In the event of escalation, the effect could be an increase in demand for safe-haven assets like gold and the Japanese yen, leading to a temporary weakness in the dollar. Forex Trading Strategy: If the tariff freeze leads to economic stabilization in North America, the dollar could appreciate against riskier currencies such as the Mexican peso (MXN) and the Canadian dollar (CAD). However, traders should monitor China's reactions, as an escalation could lead to a more significant dollar rally. 2. Impact on the Mexican Peso (MXN) and Canadian Dollar (CAD) The tariff freeze on Mexico and Canada will likely have a positive impact on both currencies. These countries will benefit from reduced costs on goods exported to the United States, which could stimulate economic growth and improve the trade balance. However, the situation remains delicate. If China continues with new tariffs, Mexico and Canada could be indirectly affected, as overall global uncertainty could reduce trade and slow down growth. Nevertheless, both countries could continue to see appreciation in their currencies against emerging market or riskier currencies. Forex Trading Strategy: If the Mexican peso and Canadian dollar appreciate, traders might consider going long on these currencies against others like the Brazilian real (BRL) or South African rand (ZAR), which tend to be more volatile and vulnerable to global crises. 3. Impact on the Chinese Yuan (CNY) and Emerging Market Currencies The escalation of the trade war between the U.S. and China will have a direct impact on the Chinese yuan. If more counter-tariffs are imposed, the yuan could weaken further, particularly against the dollar. This weakening could also increase volatility in emerging market currencies as capital might seek safety in assets like the dollar or Japanese yen. Another potential effect will be the increase in commodity demand, particularly for metals and energy, which could benefit currencies linked to the export of raw materials, such as the Australian dollar (AUD) and the New Zealand dollar (NZD). Forex Trading Strategy: Traders expecting a weakening of the yuan could consider short positions on the CNY against the dollar or other major currencies. Additionally, monitoring commodity price trends will be crucial, as they could provide leading indicators for currencies tied to their export. Conclusion: A New Chapter in the Tariff War with Forex Impacts In summary, the tariff war between the United States, Mexico, Canada, and China is entering a new phase that will have long-lasting effects on financial markets, especially on Forex. Currency fluctuations will be influenced by a combination of trade policies, geopolitical uncertainties, and global economic dynamics. Investors and traders need to prepare for a period of high volatility, closely monitoring the moves of key players and their repercussions on the currency markets. In this environment, adopting a flexible and diversified strategy is crucial, ready to adapt to rapid and unpredictable developments. Forex, as always, offers great opportunities but also significant risks. The key will be to read between the lines of global economic policies and act with timing.
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Three Outside Up and Down Candlestick PatternsThree Outside Up and Down Candlestick Patterns: How to Identify and Trade Them The three outside up and three outside down candlestick patterns offer traders a powerful way to analyse potential market reversals. Formed by 3 consecutive candlesticks they can signal key shifts in market sentiment, providing valuable insights into future price movements. In this article, we’ll break down how traders identify, trade, and confirm these patterns. What Are the Three Outside Up and Down Patterns? The three outside candlestick patterns are powerful tools in technical analysis that can help traders analyse potential market reversals. These patterns are made up of three consecutive candlesticks that reveal shifts in market sentiment. There are two variations: the three outside up and three outside down formations, each signalling opposite directions. In a three outside up pattern, the first candle is a small bearish one, followed by a second, larger bullish candle that completely engulfs the first. The third candle is another bullish one, confirming the momentum shift toward a potential upward trend. This type typically forms after a downtrend, hinting that the market could be turning bullish. On the flip side, the three outside down candlestick pattern starts with a small bullish candle. The second candle is a larger bearish one that engulfs the first, and the third is another bearish bar, signalling that sellers are gaining control. This formation usually appears after an uptrend and suggests a possible bearish reversal. Three outside candle patterns are particularly useful because they provide multiple points of confirmation—first, the engulfing candle, and then the third which further solidifies the trend. They often appear on various asset classes, from stocks to forex, and can be a valuable part of a trader's analysis. The Psychology Behind The Three Outside Patterns Understanding the psychology driving these patterns can give traders better insight into market dynamics. With the three outside up candlestick pattern, the initial small bearish candle shows hesitation, but the large bullish candle that follows reflects a surge in buyer confidence. The final bullish candle confirms that buyers have taken control, possibly signalling a shift from bearish to bullish sentiment. In contrast, the three outside down reflects a change from bullish optimism to bearish caution. The first candle shows a continuation of buying pressure, but the second, larger bearish bar reveals that sellers are stepping in with strength. The third bearish candle reinforces this shift in market sentiment. Identification Steps Identifying the three outside candle patterns is straightforward once you know what to look for. The key is focusing on the structure and order of the three candlesticks. Want to have a go at spotting the formation for yourself? Head over to FXOpen to access hundreds of real-time charts. Three Outside Up Pattern - First Candle: This is a small bearish candlestick that occurs within a downtrend. It suggests that the market still favours sellers, but it’s weak. - Second Candle: The crucial point of the formation. The second candle is a much larger bullish one that engulfs the entire body of the first one. - Third Candle: Another bullish candle that confirms the pattern. Its close is above the second’s close, solidifying the upward momentum. Three Outside Down Pattern - First Candle: This is a small bullish candle within an uptrend, reflecting weaker buying interest. - Second Candle: The key feature. A larger bearish bar fully engulfs the first one. - Third Candle: A second bearish candle follows, closing lower than the second and reinforcing the shift in sentiment toward selling pressure. Other Considerations - Engulfing Candle Size: The bigger the second candle in relation to the first, the stronger the signal. It indicates a more decisive shift in market sentiment. - Timeframe: They can appear across various timeframes, but they're expected to be more reliable on longer ones, such as daily or weekly charts. Lower timeframes can lead to wrong trade decisions. - Context: While the formation itself is important, it’s key to consider the broader market environment. Combining it with other forms of analysis, like trendlines or indicators, can increase the reliability of your trade decisions. Three Outside Candle Pattern: a Trading Strategy Trading the three outside up and three outside down patterns requires understanding both how to spot the signal and how to manage the trade. Here’s a step-by-step approach to using these patterns in real-world scenarios. Entering a Trade For both types, traders typically wait for the close of the third candle to confirm the pattern before making any moves. For the three outside up, a trader may analyse the close of the third bullish bar as confirmation of potential upward momentum. In contrast, for the three outside down, the third bearish candle indicates potential downward momentum. It’s common to enter trades at the open of the next candlestick, following the pattern, but waiting for a slight pullback or additional confirmation from another technical indicator (e.g., RSI or moving averages) is also a prudent strategy. Stop Loss Placement To potentially manage risk, traders often place stop losses at strategic points on the chart. In the case of a three outside up, it’s typical to place a stop loss just below the low of the engulfing (second) candle. This allows some breathing room but potentially protects against the risk of a reversal. For the three outside down, a stop loss is commonly set just above the high of the engulfing candlestick. Take Profit Strategy Setting a take-profit target usually involves identifying potential resistance or support levels. For a three outside up, traders often target the next key resistance level. It’s also common to use a risk-reward ratio of 1:2 or higher, ensuring that the potential returns justify the risk taken. In the case of a three outside down pattern, traders aim for the next support level as a potential area to take returns. Again, maintaining a favourable risk-reward ratio is crucial in preserving long-term trades. How Traders Confirm Three Outside Candlestick Patterns Confirming the three outside up and three outside down patterns is crucial for potentially avoiding false signals and increasing the reliability of your analysis. While the formation can signal a potential reversal, using additional tools to verify the move can help traders make more accurate decisions. Here are a few ways traders typically confirm the pattern: - Momentum Indicators: Traders often use momentum tools like the relative strength index, moving average convergence divergence, or stochastic oscillator to gauge whether the pattern aligns with market momentum. If these indicators show overbought or oversold conditions, it can confirm the strength of the signal. - Volume Analysis: An increase in volume on the second and third candlesticks adds weight to the analysis, suggesting that more market participants are involved in the move. Higher volume often indicates stronger conviction behind the shift. - Trendlines and Moving Averages: Many traders use trendlines or moving averages to confirm the pattern’s validity. For a three outside up, a breakout above a downtrend line or crossing above a key moving average reinforces the bullish signal. For a three outside down, a break below a trendline or drop under a moving average strengthens the bearish case. Common Mistakes to Avoid While these patterns can provide useful insights, there are common mistakes traders make when using them. Understanding them can help improve analysis and decision-making. - Ignoring Volume: One of the key signs of a strong formation is the higher volume on the second and third candles. Without this, it may lack the strength needed to suggest a real market shift. - Use in Isolation: Relying solely on the candlestick pattern without considering other indicators or market conditions often leads to misleading signals. It’s important to incorporate other technical tools to build a stronger case. - Forcing the Pattern: Traders sometimes try to identify the pattern even when it doesn’t meet the criteria, leading to poor decisions. Both the engulfing and confirmation bars need to be clear and distinct for the formation to be valid. - Overlooking Trend Context: They are more reliable when they occur after a clear uptrend or downtrend. Attempting to trade them in a range-bound market or against the prevailing trend can reduce their effectiveness. The Bottom Line The three outside patterns are valuable tools for identifying potential market reversals when combined with other technical analysis methods. In combination with sound risk management, these formations can offer traders a boost in their strategies. To put what you’ve learned into practice across more than 700 markets, consider opening an FXOpen account. FXOpen offers several advanced trading platforms, low costs, and blazing-fast trade execution speeds designed to upgrade your trading experience. FAQ What Is the Pattern of Three Outside Candlesticks? The three outside candlesticks pattern is a reversal formation made up of three consecutive candles. In the three outside up, a small bearish candle is followed by a larger bullish one that engulfs it. A third bullish candle confirms the upward move. The three outside down is the opposite, starting with a small bullish candlestick engulfed by a larger bearish one, with a final bearish candle confirming the potential downtrend. What Happens After Three Outside Up? After a three outside up, the market may experience a bullish reversal. The formation suggests that buyers are gaining momentum, and traders may see upward price movement following the confirmation of the third candle. What Is the Success Rate of the Three Outside Up? The success rate of the three outside up pattern varies depending on market conditions and timeframe. While it can be an effective reversal signal, it’s expected to be more reliable when combined with other indicators like volume or trendlines. What Do Three Candlesticks Mean? Three candlesticks refer to a specific pattern where three consecutive candles form a signal, often indicating potential reversals or trend confirmations in technical analysis. What Is 3 Candlestick Strategy? The 3 candlestick strategy involves identifying patterns like three outside up or three outside down, where 3 candles signal potential market reversals or continuations. It’s often used to analyse future price movements. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Best Chart Patterns to Buy Gold in Uptrend One of the proven strategies to safely buy gold in uptrend is to look for THESE chart patterns. In this article, I will teach 4 best bullish price action patterns for Gold trading. All the patterns that we will discuss work perfectly on a daily, 4h, 1h time frames. The first strong bullish pattern, that we will discuss, is a bullish flag pattern. The pattern is based on 2 important elements: a bullish impulse leg and a bearish correctional movement afterward. The highs and lows of a correctional movement should respect 2 falling trend lines: one being a vertical resistance and one being a vertical support. These 2 trend lines will compose a falling parallel channel. Your strong bullish signal will be a breakout of the resistance of the flag - a candle close above that. The trading strategy of this pattern is very straightforward . After a violation of the resistance of the flag is confirmed , buy the market immediately or on a retest. Place stop loss order below the lowest low of the pattern, initial target - the high of the pattern with a potential bullish continuation to a new high. Look at a bullish flag pattern on Gold on a 4H time frame. A bullish breakout of its upper boundary was a perfect signal to buy XAUUSD. The variation of a bullish flag pattern is a falling wedge pattern. In a wedge pattern, a correctional movement occurs within a contracting channel based on 2 converging trend lines. The same strategy is applied for buying wedge pattern after a breakout . Above, you can see a falling wedge on Gold chart on a daily that was formed after a completion of a sharp bullish wave. Bullish violation of the resistance line of the pattern was a strong call to open long position. Trading hundreds of bullish flags and falling wedges, I noticed that the wedge patter has a little bit higher accuracy. The next chart pattern for buying Gold is called Ascending Triangle. After completing a bullish impulse and setting a higher high, the market should start consolidating . A consolidation should have a specific shape: the price should start respecting a horizontal resistance based on the last high and drop from that, setting equal high and a consequent higher low after every bearish movement. A reliable bullish signal will be a breakout - a candle close above a horizontal resistance line based on the equal highs. Buy Gold immediately after a violation, or set a buy limit order on a retest of a broken resistance. Safe stop loss will be at least below the last higher low. If you are taking the trade on 1H time frame, set it below the first higher low. Take profit will be the next potentially strong resistance. With the absence of historic resistances, your goal can be the next psychological level based on round numbers. That's a perfect example of the ascending triangle pattern that formed on Gold on a daily time frame. After a breakout of its resistance, a bullish rally initiated. Usually, the pattern is considered to be completed when the price sets at least 3 higher lows and 3 highers highs. If only 2 equals highs and 2 higher lows are set, such a pattern will be called Cup & Handle. Entry, stop loss and target rules are the same as in ascending triangle trading. That's a nice cup & handle pattern on Gold on a 4H. Violation of its resistance triggered a significant trend-following movement. The last pattern for buying Gold is horizontal parallel channel. It should form after a completion of a bullish wave and represent a consolidation and indecision. The price should set equal highs and consequent equal lows, respecting horizontal support and resistance. A strong bullish signal to buy Gold will be a breakout of a horizontal resistance of the channel and a candle close above. The principles of its trading strategy are very similar. Open long position on Gold immediately after a candle close above the resistance or on its retest. Stop loss should be placed below the support of the channel. Take profit will be the next historic or (if there is no) psychological level. Check this horizontal channel that was spotted on a daily time frame on Gold chart. After quite an extended consolidation within, the price violated its upper boundary and went up. All these chart patterns have a unique shape and structure and are very easy to recognize. Apply them for trend-trading Gold on any time frame and good luck in your journey. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
5
Thoughts on Technical Analysis (Part 1) 1- Taking market entries at exhaustion figures (accumulations or distributions) is a poor investment if the preceding trends show strength (especially if the trendline hasn't been broken or they are in contradiction with balance points of higher timeframes, like a 20 EMA). Secure reversals occur in contexts of weakness. 2- Thinking of price charts as something that either goes up or down is a mistake, as markets tend to go through long periods of indecision. We should avoid these circumstances unless a study in higher timeframes provides us with a favorable context. 3- Trades where the Stop Loss (SL) is protected by price formations, (especially if the target shows a good risk-reward ratio) not only add security to our trades but also attract more participants, increasing the chances of success. 4- Forcing market entries (or analysis) implies a lack of experience, system, or investment methodology. Even discretionary investors express that the best opportunities are evident at first glance. 5- Not being flexible to market changes is often more a matter of ego than inexperience. 6- There is no risk management nor is it possible to perform backtesting without fixed, immutable parameters. Any minimal change when executing our market entries significantly impacts our success rate. 7- We should avoid analyzing the market starting from lower timeframes, as our analysis might be biased once we approach higher timeframes. Higher timeframes clarify. 8- We should avoid using several indicators of the same type (oscillators or trend), as the signals will be relatively similar in the same context, which does not provide a significant advantage. A hundred aligned oscillator crossovers in the same timeframe won't make a difference. 9- The best quantitative trading systems are trained based on historical patterns. Moreover, harmony and repetitive patterns attract more investors. The root of Technical Analysis is the historical pattern, and a pattern of behavior increases the probability of success. 10- The best market entries are in balance zones, and even reversals in lower timeframe trends (in disequilibrium) generally increase their reliability when they find a balance point in higher timeframes. 11- A engulfing candle is a trend in a lower timeframe, so any formation or pattern can be contextualized. 12- There are two approaches to tackling a price chart: the quantitative and the discretionary (or logical). Both approaches recognize that the market forms patterns with some predictive capacity, but they accept that most of the time randomness prevails. 13- The fathers of Technical Analysis (Charles Dow and Richard W. Schabacker) claim that lower timeframes are more prone to manipulation. Another interesting fact is that documented quantitative systems decrease their success rate at lower timeframes (some becoming unusable at 1-hour or higher timeframes). 14- Major changes in price charts are caused by minorities (who concentrate more wealth and influence) that are better informed and capitalized. Notes: Some classic authors taught how periods of great popular euphoria generate market corrections, as in the case of Charles Dow; while others directly created methods to understand and exploit manipulation, like Richard D. Wyckoff and his "strong hands". The popular euphoria generated by the news that the SEC would allow the creation of the first Bitcoin ETFs, and BlackRock's entry into the Bitcoin ETF market did not cause the expected rise, but a correction. Also, Donald Trump's rise to power and encouraging news generated popular euphoria which translated into another correction. Currently, many stocks, especially tech ones, are at inflection points according to the historical record of price action, some showing exhaustion figures. It wouldn't surprise me if a series of "geopolitical circumstances" justified the corrections. 15- Colorful charts increase the irrationality and risk appetite of investors (and investment platforms know this). Notes: Investors in feudal Japan used red and black to represent price fluctuations. Bullish candles were red, and bearish ones were black. With the red color, investors remained alert and skeptical about gains, and black was a neutral color meant to convey calm in the face of trend reversals. Libraries, offices, universities, and any place where maximum intellectual performance is required are decorated with neutral colors. Recreational places like bars, clubs, or casinos are extremely colorful.
Education
by Especulador96
EDUCATION: Using RENKO Charts to Trade Crypto Like a ProRenko charts strip away the noise of traditional candlestick charts, making them a powerful tool for trading crypto. Instead of plotting price movements based on time, Renko charts focus purely on price changes, filtering out the wicks and erratic movements that make crypto trading so volatile. Why Use Renko for Crypto? Crypto markets never sleep, and their constant fluctuations can overwhelm traders. Renko simplifies this by helping you: Spot Trends Clearly – No distractions from minor price fluctuations. Reduce Market Noise – Filters out insignificant moves and focuses on real momentum. Identify Support & Resistance – Renko blocks highlight strong price levels better than traditional charts. How to Set Up Renko for Crypto Trading Choose an ATR-Based Brick Size – A 14 or 13-period ATR setting adapts to market volatility. Identify Key Levels – Look for trend reversals, double tops/bottoms, and support/resistance zones. Use Confirmation Indicators – Pair Renko with moving averages or RSI to confirm trades. Renko is a game-changer for crypto traders who want cleaner, more actionable charts. Have you tried trading crypto with Renko? Drop a comment and share your experience! 🚀 #CryptoTrading #RenkoCharts #Bitcoin
CRYPTO:SOLUSDEducation
by TLTurnerTV
My experiences and knowledge about crappy strategies.Hello guys, I hope you are doing well. Today I am a little upset that some of you are following or paying money to mentor people who have no knowledge of the market. This market does not revolve around 4 trend lines and channels and fake breakouts and such nonsense. All of these are not wrong, they are just immature and a bit beginner-friendly. Today a person contacted me privately and complained about losing capital and that this market has no logic and basis and thought the whole market was gambling. But it is not as he thought. I told him: Send me the journal. In response, he asked me what is a journal? (: Mistakes in this market are the best teacher Mistakes are the best teacher if you journal and realize your mistake. I said to him: Don't you save your charts? He said: Why should I? (: One of your main problems is not saving your charts. Always save your charts and refer to them again to realize your mistakes. Well, let's get back to the main topic. Look, guys, the market revolves around liquidity and support and resistance (a simpler example of liquidity is the fake breakout). If you want to succeed in this market, you have to learn everything professionally. Never trade on a time frame lower than 5 minutes. Each new day that starts, clear your chart and draw everything again. This will make you practice. Sometimes you will realize your mistakes from the previous day. Never be greedy. Don't trade emotionally. Always check the market trend from daily to 15 minutes and write it down on paper and keep it on your desk so that you are always focused. For a spike trend, go against the trend for 15 minutes. Don't trade against the market trend. Don't get carried away by the trend line (: Always be patient. Before trading, ask yourself: Is this trade safe? Did I follow all the points of my strategy? And write down the answer you gave yourself on a piece of paper. Always manage your money.
Education
by aryaaparsii
PROFIT & LEARN: NEWS TRADING (MY VIEWS) Introduction: “Hello, traders! Welcome back to ‘Profit and Learn.’ Today, we’re diving into a fascinating topic: how markets can move contrary to news. It’s a common misconception that positive news always leads to positive market movements. Let’s explore why this isn’t always the case.” Main Content: “Markets often price in expected news ahead of time. This means that by the time the news is released, the market has already reacted. Media and PR play a significant role in shaping sentiment, often creating a disconnect between actual news and market reactions. For instance, positive news can sometimes lead to a market drop due to profit-taking or because the news was already expected.” Case Study: “Let’s look at a recent example with USD/JPY. Despite all news items coming out positive, USD/JPY made a strong move downward. This can happen when markets have already priced in the positive news, or when traders take profits, causing a reversal.” Key Takeaways: “Always understand market psychology. Don’t rely solely on news headlines. Consider the bigger picture and broader market context before making trading decisions.” Conclusion: “Thanks for tuning in! Remember, successful trading requires a holistic approach. Stay informed, stay cautious, and happy trading!”
Education
by moneymagnateash
THE SKEWED GAMES. UNDERSTANDING CBOE SKEW INDEX (SKEW)The CBOE Skew Index (SKEW, or "BLACK SWAN" Index) is a financial metric developed by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) to measure the perceived tail risk in the S&P 500 over a 30-day horizon. Tail risk refers to the probability of extreme market movements, such as significant declines or "black swan" events, which are rare but have severe consequences. Here's a detailed explanation of its role and implications in financial markets: Key Features of the CBOE:SKEW Index Measurement of Tail Risk. The SKEW Index quantifies the likelihood of returns that deviate two or more standard deviations from the mean. It focuses on outlier events, unlike the VIX (Volatility Index), which measures implied volatility around at-the-money (ATM) options. Implied Volatility Skew. The index is derived from the pricing of out-of-the-money (OTM) S&P 500 options. It reflects the market's demand for protection against downside risks, which leads to higher implied volatility for OTM puts compared to calls. Range and Interpretation The SKEW Index typically ranges from 100 to 150. A value near 100 suggests a normal distribution of returns with low perceived tail risk. Higher values (e.g., above 130) indicate increased concern about potential extreme negative events, with heightened demand for protective options. How It Works The SKEW Index is calculated using a portfolio of OTM options on the S&P 500. The methodology involves measuring the slope of implied volatility across different strike prices, capturing how much more expensive OTM puts are relative to calls. This steepness reflects market participants' expectations of asymmetric risks, particularly on the downside. To make a picture clear, we just simply use 125-Day SMA of SKEW Index. Since multi year high has occurred, market turbulence come as usual. Practical Implications Market Sentiment. A rising SKEW Index signals growing fear of extreme downside risks. For example, during periods of economic uncertainty or geopolitical tensions, investors may hedge portfolios more aggressively, driving up the index. Conversely, lower readings suggest calm market conditions with balanced expectations for future returns. Portfolio Management Investors use the SKEW Index as a barometer for hedging costs. High SKEW levels indicate that protecting against tail risks has become more expensive (and probably active). It also helps traders assess whether market pricing aligns with their own risk expectations. Historical Context Historically, spikes in the SKEW Index have preceded major market downturns or volatility events, such as the "Flash Crash" in 2010, Bear market in early 2000s (dot com collapse), WFC in 2007-09, market falls in late 2018 and in 2022. Complement to VIX While both indices measure risk, they address different aspects: VIX captures overall market volatility, while SKEW focuses on asymmetry and extreme event probabilities. Limitations In summary, the CBOE Skew Index provides valuable insights into market participants' perception of tail risks and their willingness to pay for protection against extreme events. It complements other volatility measures like the VIX and serves as a critical tool for risk management and market analysis.
SEducation
by PandorraResearch
Business CycleAll the credits to Ostium labs insights. Found here Intuition behind different indicators NFCI - NATIONAL FINANCIAL CONDITIONS INDEX Note y axis is inverted. Rising NFCI here suggests loosening of financial conditions. Btc outperform in loose conditions. DRTSCILM - NET % OF BANKS TIGHTENING LENDING STANDARDS Note y axis is inverted. This tracks changes in the willingness of banks to lend, where tightening lending standards is indicative of caution, whereas looser lending standards suggest economic confidence. Here the graph is inverted - a rise shows improving willingness to lend and a fall shows tighter lending standards. HYG Real time proxy for demand of junk bonds which is a good proxy for risk appetite in the market. Demand for junk bonds is correlated with the rest of the risk curve, with Bitcoin tending to outperform during periods of strength for HYG, and vice-versa. BAMLH0A0HYM2 - HY ICE CREDIT SPREADS Note y axis is inverted. This measures the premium demanded by investors over government bonds. As one would imagine, wider credit spreads mean that more yield is being demanded to invest in junk bonds vs safe bonds, which itself is suggestive of risk in the economy. Narrow spreads, meanwhile, are indicative of confidence. The graph is inverted such that the peaks are the tightest spread. If credit spreads are narrow, risk appetite is high, which means assets further out the risk curve benefit. This is also suggestive of expansion vs contraction in the business cycle, where widening spreads would be suggestive of downturn and narrowing spreads of continued growth. USMNO/USNMNO - US MANUFACTURING ORDERS / NON-MANUFACTURING ORDERS Manufacturing New Orders growing faster than Non-Manufacturing New Orders is generally indicative of early recovery in a business cycle, whereas late cycle dynamics are more heavily weighted towards services, largely driven by consumer spending and therefore this ratio would begin to contract, as Non-Manufacturing New Orders dominate. USBC0I - US PMI A composite of the Manufacturing and Services sectors in the US economy. Above 50 = expansion and below 50 = contraction. T10YIE - 10-YEAR INFLATION BREAKEVENS A market-based measure of average expected inflation over the next 10 years. Bitcoin likes it very much when the average expected inflation rate has bottomed and is trending higher and it generally underperforms when 10-year inflation breakevens are declining. Bitcoin also tends to front-run peaks in 10-year inflation breakevens by about 6-9 months, which in turn tend to peak after Global M2 YoY growth has peaked and is turning lower. This measure also is useful for understanding what is likely to happen to financial conditions - tighter after peaks and looser after bottoms. The clearest correlation here is not to the downside but the upside: when breakevens have bottomed out and cycle higher, Bitcoin tends to do very well indeed. DFII10 - 10-YEAR REAL YIELD Note y axis is inverted What is interesting here is that whilst there is not a strong correlation as real yields rise, there is a clearer correlation as real yields fall. Falling real yields tend to be supportive of Bitcoin, whilst rising real yields have occurred whilst BTC has outperformed and underperformed historically. This one is not as key for mapping out the market cycle, but still worth keeping an eye on.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by Oxfirefist
Day Trading: A Comprehensive GuideDay trading is a dynamic trading style that attracts many traders, particularly those looking to capitalize on short-term market movements. Unlike other trading strategies that span days, weeks, or even months, day trading involves executing trades within the same trading day, taking advantage of price fluctuations throughout that period. This guide will explore the essence of day trading, its strategies, pros and cons, and tips for success, delving deeper into the intricacies of the market and the techniques required to navigate it effectively. What is Day Trading? Day trading involves the buying and selling of financial instruments within a single trading day. Traders do not hold positions overnight; instead, they aim to profit from daily market movements. This approach is particularly appealing to novice traders, who may believe that frequent trades can exponentially increase profits. However, the fast-paced nature of day trading requires discipline and a solid trading plan, as emotional decision-making can lead to significant losses. Traders typically utilize various time frames, often ranging from one minute (M1) to one hour (H1). While beginners may gravitate towards shorter time frames like M5 or M15, these often result in increased noise and the potential for quickly hitting stop-loss orders. Successful day traders understand that consistent profitability stems from maintaining discipline and developing a robust trading strategy rather than chasing quick wins. Understanding Market Psychology Market psychology plays a significant role in day trading. Fear, greed, and anxiety are the primary emotions driving investor behavior, leading to price movements. Traders must remain aware of market sentiment, gauging the mood of other traders and market participants. This involves: 1. Sentiment Analysis: Assessing current market sentiment can help traders position themselves correctly. Bullish sentiment often leads to higher prices, while bearish sentiment causes prices to drop. 2. Economic Indicators: Monitoring economic indicators and news releases helps traders anticipate potential price movements, influencing their trading decisions. 3. Support and Resistance: Key support and resistance levels indicate areas of price stability and potential for price reversal. Read also: --- Strategies for Successful Day Trading --- To thrive in day trading, adherence to particular strategies is essential. Here’s a look at some of the most common techniques employed by day traders: 1. Scalping Scalping is one of the oldest and most popular strategies in day trading. It involves making numerous trades throughout the day to capture small price movements. Scalpers analyze charts and execute quick trades based on technical indicators, entering and exiting positions in mere minutes. This method thrives in low-volatility environments, where assets tend to fluctuate within tight ranges, allowing traders to realize small but consistent profits. Example of Scalping on 5-Minute EURUSD with Simple Moving Average and Standard RSI Indicator 2. Reverse Trading Reverse trading capitalizes on market range-bound conditions. Traders identify key support and resistance levels and execute trades based on the price retracing from these points. This strategy typically requires a combination of technical analysis and an understanding of fundamental data. It's crucial to remain vigilant about scheduled news releases, as these can create sudden price surges or drops that impact positions. Read also: 3. Momentum Trading Momentum trading relies on the strength of existing price movements. This strategy involves entering trades in the direction of a prevailing trend, often guided by fundamental analysis and technical indicators such as Moving Averages. Traders monitor economic news and events that may influence market dynamics, utilizing these insights to execute long or short trades accordingly. Read also: 4. Range Trading Range trading involves buying an asset when its price falls to the lower boundary of a trading range and selling when it reaches the upper boundary. This strategy requires a keen eye for identifying support and resistance levels and a deep understanding of market volatility. Read also: Pros and Cons of Day Trading Day trading comes with a distinct set of advantages and challenges. Here’s a balanced view of its pros and cons: Pros: - Access to Capital: Traders can start day trading with lower capital requirements since each trade can yield a profit in just a few pips. - Flexibility: Traders have control over their trading schedule, allowing them to choose when and how long to engage in trades. - Potential for High Returns: Successful day trading can produce significant profits compared to longer-term strategies, provided that trades are executed prudently and systematically. Cons: - High Risk: Day trading is inherently risky, especially for those inexperienced in market dynamics. The potential for quick losses is significant. - Psychological Pressure: The fast-paced nature of day trading can lead to emotional decision-making, which can derail even the most disciplined traders. Read also: - Time Commitment: Day traders must be patient and ready to dedicate long hours to monitoring the markets, which may not suit everyone. - Commissions and Fees: Trading frequently can lead to increased commissions and fees, eating into potential profits and making it essential to maintain a high win-to-loss ratio. Managing Risks in Day Trading Risk management is paramount to surviving in the world of day trading. Here are some risk management techniques to consider: 1. Position Sizing: Proper position sizing is critical to risk management in day trading. This involves allocating the right amount of capital to each trade to minimize the impact of potential losses. 2. Stops and Limits: Traders use stops and limits to limit potential losses. Stops are triggered when prices reach a predefined level, closing out the position, while limits are triggered when prices reach a certain level, closing out the position. 3. Risk Reward Ratio: Setting a risk reward ratio helps traders maintain profitability. This involves setting a ratio of reward to risk, typically around 1:3 to 1:4. Read also: /b] and.. and... Conclusion Day trading can be a lucrative venture for those willing to invest time in understanding market mechanics, developing strategies, and exercising disciplined decision-making. While it may appear attractive, particularly for beginners, the reality is that successful day trading requires meticulous planning, emotional control, and a well-thought-out strategy. For those new to day trading, practicing on a demo account is advised to build skills and confidence. Starting with simpler strategies, such as pullback trading or scalping, can help beginners navigate the complexities of intraday trading. Ultimately, comprehensive knowledge of technical analysis and a clear grasp of market sentiment are critical for achieving consistent success in day trading. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Education
by FOREXN1
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