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What are Harmonic Price Patterns?Harmonic price patterns are chart patterns based on Fibonacci ratios and market geometry, used to identify potential reversal points in Forex. They rely on Fibonacci levels (e.g., 0.618, 0.786, 1.618) to measure price structures, predicting reversal zones (PRZ - Potential Reversal Zone). Key Features: - Based on Fibonacci ratios. - Geometric structure with 4-5 points (X, A, B, C, D). - Identifies PRZ for buy/sell opportunities. - Symmetrical, reflecting market psychology. Key Harmonic Patterns in Forex: 1. Gartley: - AB retraces 61.8% of XA. - D at 78.6% of XA. - Buy/sell at D. 2. Bat: - AB retraces 38.2-50% of XA. - D at 88.6% of XA. - High-precision at D. 3. Crab: - CD extends 161.8% of XA. - D at extreme levels. - Suited for strong volatility. 4. Butterfly: - AB retraces 78.6% of XA. - D extends 127-161.8% of XA. - End of strong trends. 5. Shark: - AB retraces 113-161.8% of XA. - D at 88.6-113% of XA. - Volatile markets. 6. Cypher: - CD retraces 78.6% of XC. - Short-term timeframes. How to Use: 1. Measure Fibonacci ratios to identify the pattern. 2. Locate PRZ at D, combine with support/resistance, RSI, or candlestick patterns. 3. Set stop-loss beyond PRZ, aim for risk/reward ≥ 1:2. 4. Enter trades at D after price/indicator confirmation. Notes: - Requires precise measurements. - Combine with other tools for reliability. - Practice on a demo account first. - Avoid during high-volatility events (e.g., news releases). Let me know if you need details on a specific pattern!
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Henrybillion
What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern: Meaning & Trading?What Is the Hanging Man Candlestick Pattern, and How Can You Trade It? In the world of technical analysis, candlestick patterns play a vital role in helping traders decipher market trends and potential reversals. Among the many setups, the hanging man holds particular significance. This distinctive formation captures traders' attention as it often serves as a warning sign of a possible trend reversal. This article will go through the technical analysis of the hanging man formation and explain how traders can trade with it. What Is a Hanging Man Pattern? The hanging man candlestick pattern is characterised by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging from its head, hence the name "Hanging Man." Psychology Behind the Hanging Man The psychology behind the hanging man candlestick pattern reflects a shift in market sentiment. After a sustained uptrend, the appearance of this pattern indicates that buyers are losing momentum. The long lower shadow shows that sellers were able to push prices down significantly during the trading session. Although buyers managed to drive prices back up, the close near the open price suggests weakening bullish sentiment. This pattern signals that selling pressure is increasing, potentially leading to a bearish reversal as confidence among buyers diminishes. The hanging man is a versatile formation that can be applied across a wide range of financial instruments, including stocks, cryptocurrencies*, ETFs, indices, and forex, on different timeframes. Identifying a Hanging Man Candlestick on Trading Charts To spot a hanging man pattern in stocks and other financial instruments, you may follow these key steps: Look for an existing uptrend: Start by identifying a prevailing upward price movement on the chart. Locate a candlestick with specific characteristics: Search for a candlestick with a small body near the top, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. This formation resembles a figure hanging from its head. The colour of the candle doesn’t matter, but if it’s bearish, the signal is stronger. Consider supporting indicators: Utilise other technical indicators or oscillators to further validate the potential reversal. These can include trendlines, moving averages, or momentum indicators that align with the bearish interpretation. Note that there is no such thing as an inverted hanging man candlestick or a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern. Trading the Hanging Man Pattern Those trading the hanging man reversal pattern need to apply a systematic approach in order to increase the likelihood of successful trades. Here are a few steps traders usually follow to trade this pattern: - Identification: Identify the setup by using the steps mentioned above. - Look for confirmation signals: The setup alone is not sufficient for making trading decisions. Seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns or technical indicators. This can include bearish candlestick patterns (e.g. bearish engulfing or shooting star), a breach of support levels, or the convergence of other indicators signalling a potential reversal. - Define your entry point: An entry point can be either when the next candlestick confirms the bearish sentiment or when the price breaches a significant support level. - Consider risk management: Assess the risk-reward ratio of the trade and ensure it aligns with your risk tolerance. For efficient risk management, you may adjust your position size accordingly. Risk management tools like position sizing, setting stop-loss orders, and diversification may help protect your capital. You may set a stop-loss order above the hanging man pattern to limit potential losses if the trade goes against you. - Identify profit targets: The candlestick itself doesn't provide specific targets. Traders can identify profit targets by looking at previous support levels, Fibonacci retracement levels, or other technical analysis tools like moving averages or pivot points. - Monitor the trade: Keep a close eye on your position as it progresses. Pay attention to any changes in market conditions or additional signals that may invalidate the trade. - Learn from outcomes: Regardless of the outcome of the trade, analyse it afterwards to identify areas for improvement. Assess whether the setup provided accurate signals and identify any factors that may have affected its success. This analysis will help refine your trading strategy over time. Live Market Example Consider the example of a hanging man on the forex USDJPY pair. An entry is placed on the next bearish candlestick with a stop loss just above the hanging man. The take profit order is at the next level of support marked by the orange line. Limitations of the Hanging Man Candlestick The hanging man candlestick pattern, while useful, has certain limitations that traders need to consider: - False Signals: The hanging man can produce false signals, especially in volatile markets where price movements are erratic. - Market Context: The effectiveness of the pattern varies depending on the broader market context and prevailing trends. - Timeframe Sensitivity: Its reliability can differ across various timeframes; what works on a daily chart may not be as effective on an intraday chart. - Not Standalone: It should not be used in isolation but as part of a comprehensive trading strategy that includes other indicators and risk management tools. Comparing the Hanging Man to Similar Candles Understanding how the hanging man pattern differs from similar candlestick patterns helps in accurate technical analysis. Here's a brief comparison of the hanging man with related patterns. What Is the Difference Between a Hanging Man and a Hammer? Both have the same candle structure. However, the hanging man candlestick occurs in an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, while the hammer occurs in a downtrend, indicating a potential bullish reversal. Interestingly, it is possible to see a hanging man candlestick in a downtrend, often as part of a bullish retracement. Both candles require confirmation from subsequent price movements. They should be analysed within the context of the overall market trend and other technical indicators. What Is the Difference Between a Pin Bar and a Hanging Man? A pin bar and a hanging man are both single-candlestick patterns with small bodies and long shadows, but they serve different purposes in technical analysis. The pin bar has a small body and a long tail, indicating a reversal, but it can appear in any market condition. Its long tail shows a strong rejection of a certain price level, with the body pointing in the direction of the anticipated reversal. The hanging man, however, specifically occurs after an uptrend and signals a potential bearish reversal, characterised by a small body at the top and a long lower shadow, indicating selling pressure. What Is the Difference Between a Shooting Star and a Hanging Man Candlestick? The shooting star and the hanging man are both bearish reversal patterns, but they differ in their appearance and context. A shooting star occurs after an uptrend and features a small body at the bottom with a long upper shadow, indicating that the price was pushed up significantly but fell back down, showing strong selling pressure. The hanging man also appears after an uptrend but has a small body at the top with a long lower shadow, suggesting that sellers dominated the session despite an initial push by buyers. Both require confirmation from subsequent candlesticks to validate the reversal. Final Thoughts While the hanging man alone is insufficient for making trading decisions, it serves as a warning signal that buyers may be losing control and that selling pressure could increase. Traders seek additional confirmation through subsequent candlestick patterns, support and resistance levels, and other technical indicators to validate the potential reversal. By understanding the implications of the setup within the broader market context and employing proper risk management strategies, traders can enhance their decision-making process and improve their chances of identifying different trading opportunities. FAQ What Does the Hanging Man Pattern Indicate? The hanging man trading pattern in technical analysis typically indicates a potential trend reversal in an uptrend. It suggests that the buyers, who have been driving the market higher, are losing control, and the selling pressure may increase. The hanging man is represented by a small body near the top of the candlestick, a long lower shadow, and little to no upper shadow. It resembles a figure hanging by the neck. This visual representation conveys the potential bearish sentiment. Can a Hanging Man Candle Be Bullish? No, there is no such thing as a bullish hanging man candlestick pattern. The bearish hanging man pattern indicates a potential trend reversal from an uptrend to a downtrend. Is the Hanging Man Pattern Reliable? The reliability of the formation, like any candlestick pattern, can vary depending on several factors. While the setup is widely recognised and considered a potential bearish reversal signal, it should not be relied upon as the sole basis for trading decisions. It is crucial to consider other factors and confirmation signals to increase its reliability. What Is the Confirmation Candle for the Hanging Man? A confirmation candle for the hanging man is a bearish candlestick that follows the pattern, confirming the reversal. This can include a bearish engulfing candle or a candlestick closing well below the hanging man's body, indicating increased selling pressure. Is the Hanging Man Pattern Bearish? Yes, it is generally considered a bearish pattern in technical analysis. It is formed when the price’s open or close is near or at its high, there is a significant decline during the trading session, and it closes not far from the opening price. The pattern resembles a hanging man with his legs dangling. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
1
Stock market cycles & liquidity, understand it all in 3 minutesLiquidity is a key factor in market finance. Without it, risky assets in the stock market, equities and cryptocurrencies lose their fuel. Over the cycles, one thing has become clear: the direction of financial markets is strongly correlated with that of global liquidity. But liquidity is not a single indicator: it is organized into three complementary layers. Understanding these layers enables us to better anticipate major trends. Level 1 is global monetary liquidity (M2). Level 2 concerns net liquidity within the financial system, and level 3 encompasses overall macro-liquidity, through activity and credit indicators. Together, these three dimensions form the markets' “bloodstream”. The chart below compares the S&P 500 trend with the global money supply M2 Level 1: Global monetary liquidity (global M2) The first stage of the rocket: global M2. This monetary aggregate measures the sum of the money supply (M2) of the major economies - USA, China, Eurozone - converted into US dollars. It includes sight deposits, savings accounts and certain short-term instruments, representing the gross liquidity immediately available in the global economy. This level of liquidity is directly influenced by monetary (key rates, QE/QT), fiscal and wage policies. The evolution of the US dollar plays a crucial role: a strong dollar mechanically reduces global M2 in USD, while a weak dollar increases it. In this respect, Chinese and American dynamics are often divergent, as they are driven by different credit logics (centralized planning on the Chinese side, rate-based adjustment on the US side). But beyond the absolute level, it is above all the momentum of M2, its first derivative (annual variation), that serves as a compass. An uptrend coupled with positive momentum strongly favours risky assets. Conversely, stagnation or a negative divergence between trend and momentum (as at the end of 2021) anticipates a contraction in valuations. Over this cycle, there is even a correlation coefficient of 0.80 between global M2 and Bitcoin, projected 12 weeks into the future: liquidity leads, markets follow. Level 2: Net liquidity of the financial system The second level is more subtle, but just as decisive: net liquidity within the financial system. This is the effective credit capacity, i.e. the funds actually available to irrigate the real economy after withdrawals, excess reserves and regulatory mechanisms. Unlike M2, this measure does not reflect gross liquidity, but rather the liquidity “actionable” by financial institutions. In the United States, this net liquidity depends, among other things, on FED mechanisms such as the reverse repo program (RRP), which temporarily sucks in or releases liquidity, and on the level of banks' excess reserves. Its evolution is strongly linked to the central bank's restrictive or accommodating monetary policy, QE cycles and QT cycles. The correlation of this net liquidity with the S&P 500 and Bitcoin, although slightly lower than that of global M2, remains significant. It acts as a filter for gross liquidity: even if M2 is high, if credit capacity is blocked by excessively high rates or constrained reserves, the impact on markets can be neutralized. Level 3: Global macro liquidity Finally, the third level: global macro liquidity. It includes barometers of economic conditions that directly influence risk perception and investor appetite: PMI indices (manufacturing and services), credit conditions, employment levels, default rates, etc. It is less monetary, more conjunctural. It is less monetary, more cyclical, but its impact is real, as it shapes the context in which financial liquidity is expressed. It is this level that contextualizes the first two: a rising M2 in a deteriorating economic environment (PMI below 50, falling employment) may have a limited effect. Conversely, signs of economic recovery may reinforce the transmission of liquidity to the markets. In this sense, the timing of the FED's rate cuts becomes a key macro catalyst. As long as US policy remains restrictive, M2 will plateau and net liquidity will remain constrained, even if the ECB or PBoC relax their conditions. Conclusion: Global liquidity cannot be summed up in a single indicator. It's an ecosystem structured on three levels: global gross liquidity (M2), effective credit capacity (ECC) and net liquidity. DISCLAIMER: This content is intended for individuals who are familiar with financial markets and instruments and is for information purposes only. The presented idea (including market commentary, market data and observations) is not a work product of any research department of Swissquote or its affiliates. This material is intended to highlight market action and does not constitute investment, legal or tax advice. If you are a retail investor or lack experience in trading complex financial products, it is advisable to seek professional advice from licensed advisor before making any financial decisions. This content is not intended to manipulate the market or encourage any specific financial behavior. Swissquote makes no representation or warranty as to the quality, completeness, accuracy, comprehensiveness or non-infringement of such content. The views expressed are those of the consultant and are provided for educational purposes only. Any information provided relating to a product or market should not be construed as recommending an investment strategy or transaction. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Swissquote and its employees and representatives shall in no event be held liable for any damages or losses arising directly or indirectly from decisions made on the basis of this content. The use of any third-party brands or trademarks is for information only and does not imply endorsement by Swissquote, or that the trademark owner has authorised Swissquote to promote its products or services. Swissquote is the marketing brand for the activities of Swissquote Bank Ltd (Switzerland) regulated by FINMA, Swissquote Capital Markets Limited regulated by CySEC (Cyprus), Swissquote Bank Europe SA (Luxembourg) regulated by the CSSF, Swissquote Ltd (UK) regulated by the FCA, Swissquote Financial Services (Malta) Ltd regulated by the Malta Financial Services Authority, Swissquote MEA Ltd. (UAE) regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority, Swissquote Pte Ltd (Singapore) regulated by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, Swissquote Asia Limited (Hong Kong) licensed by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) and Swissquote South Africa (Pty) Ltd supervised by the FSCA. Products and services of Swissquote are only intended for those permitted to receive them under local law. All investments carry a degree of risk. The risk of loss in trading or holding financial instruments can be substantial. The value of financial instruments, including but not limited to stocks, bonds, cryptocurrencies, and other assets, can fluctuate both upwards and downwards. There is a significant risk of financial loss when buying, selling, holding, staking, or investing in these instruments. SQBE makes no recommendations regarding any specific investment, transaction, or the use of any particular investment strategy. CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. The vast majority of retail client accounts suffer capital losses when trading in CFDs. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Digital Assets are unregulated in most countries and consumer protection rules may not apply. As highly volatile speculative investments, Digital Assets are not suitable for investors without a high-risk tolerance. Make sure you understand each Digital Asset before you trade. Cryptocurrencies are not considered legal tender in some jurisdictions and are subject to regulatory uncertainties. The use of Internet-based systems can involve high risks, including, but not limited to, fraud, cyber-attacks, network and communication failures, as well as identity theft and phishing attacks related to crypto-assets.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Swissquote
How to use VWAP the right-way on TradingView 1️⃣ What Is VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price)? VWAP stands for Volume Weighted Average Price. It's a tool that shows the average price an asset has traded at throughout the day, adjusted for volume. That means it gives more weight to prices with high trading volume. ✅ It helps traders and investors see if the current price is above or below the average price paid. ✅ It’s often used by institutional traders, such as mutual funds and pension funds, to enter and exit positions without causing major price moves. VWAP = (Sum of Price * Volume) / Total Volume 2️⃣ Why VWAP Matters I (Traders) often use VWAP as a dynamic support or resistance zone. - Price below VWAP: considered undervalued by some 👉 may act as support - Price above VWAP: considered overvalued 👉 may act as resistance It acts like a magnet for price, especially in trending markets. VWAP is also used as a benchmark for large players want to buy below VWAP or sell above it. 3️⃣ Anchored VWAP (AVWAP) Anchored VWAP is a more advanced version of VWAP. Instead of starting at the market open, you anchor it to a specific candle (pivot high or low). 🔍 Why use it: - Lets you analyze the average price from key market turning points - Helps spot institutional interest near pivots - More accurate for swing trading When you anchor VWAP to a major high or low, it gives you clean zones where smart money might enter or exit. 4️⃣ How I Use Anchored VWAP I personally anchor VWAP from: - Major pivot highs/lows - Breakout points - Strong reversal candles Then I watch how price interacts with it. ✅ Works well on 30m and 4H charts for intraday or swing setups ✅ Can be combined with fixed range volume profile for extra confluence If you haven’t read my guide on fixed range volume profile, scroll below — it’s linked there. 5️⃣ Common Uses ✔️ Support and resistance zone in trending markets ✔️ Institutional entry/exit level benchmark ✔️ Reversion-to-mean setups VWAP is used across timeframes. I use higher timeframes like 4H to spot trend zones, then zoom into 30m or 15m for entries. Setting and more information VWAP Explained by TradingView: www.tradingview.com Anchored VWAP Explained by TradingView: www.tradingview.com 6️⃣ VWAP Limitations ⚠️ VWAP doesn’t work well in all cases: - In sideways/choppy markets, it can lose value - It is not an exact entry/exit signal, but rather a dynamic zone - In FX markets, it’s unreliable due to lack of centralized volume data Also, treat VWAP as a zone, not a line. Large players fill big orders in that area, expect false moves or liquidity grabs. 7️⃣ Mistakes to Avoid ❌ Entering blindly on VWAP touches ❌ Using VWAP without confirmation from price action or volume ❌ Assuming it always gives perfect levels It works best when combined with other tools, such as market structure, support/resistance, and volume profile. 8️⃣ Final Thoughts VWAP is a powerful tool to see where price is relative to volume-based value. Anchoring VWAP to key levels adds precision and insight. Used properly, it helps: - Spot where institutions might be active - Confirm high-probability zones - Improve entries/exits when paired with other tools Examples are provided below to show how VWAP works in real-time setups. This guide is educational and for learning purposes only. VWAP Zone and a Example trade CRYPTOCAP:BTC Example Stock Market NASDAQ:AAPL Example Resistance NASDAQ:MSTR VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) helps traders see the average price weighted by volume. It's commonly used by institutions to identify good entry/exit zones. Anchored VWAP takes this further by starting from key points like pivot highs/lows for more accuracy. It's most useful in trending markets and works best when combined with tools like fixed range volume profile or support/resistance. While powerful, VWAP isn’t perfect it should be used as a dynamic zone, not a fixed level, and always with other confirmations. Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Always do your own research. This content may include enhancements made using AI.
Education
by Risk_Adj_Return
4
Volume Droughts and False Breakouts: Your Summer Trading TrapsThe market’s heating up — but is your breakout about to dry up? Here’s a word about the importance of summer trading success (helped by volume — the main character). ☀️ Welcome to the Liquidity Desert Summer’s getting ready to slap the market with a whole flurry of different setups. Picture this — the beaches are full, your trading desk is half-abandoned, and the only thing more elusive than a decent breakout is your intention to actually read that big fat technical analysis book you bought last year. And yet, here you are — eyes glued to the chart — watching a clean breakout above resistance that’s just begging for you to hit “buy.” Everything looks perfect. Price rips through the level like it’s made of butter. But there’s just one tiny problem: no volume. None. Nada. Niente. Congratulations. You’ve just bought the world’s most attractive false breakout. 🏝️ Summer Markets: Where Good Setups Go to Die Let’s set the scene. It’s June. The big dogs on Wall Street are golfing in the Hamptons and sipping mezcal espresso martinis, interns are running the order flow, and every chart you love is doing just enough to get your hopes up before crushing them like a half-melted snow cone. This isn’t your usual high-volatility playground. Summer markets — especially between June and August — are notorious for thin liquidity . That means fewer participants, smaller volume, and a much higher likelihood of being tricked by price action that looks strong… until it’s not. And it’s not just stocks. Forex, crypto, commodities — even the bond boys — all face the same issue: when fewer people are trading, price becomes more fragile. And fragile price = bad decisions. 🚨 Why False Breakouts Love Quiet Markets False breakouts happen when price appears to break above resistance (or below support), only to reverse sharply — often trapping late traders and triggering stop hunts. But in summer? It’s a whole different beast. Here’s why: No liquidity cushion : In normal markets, you need strong volume to fuel a breakout. Without that, the breakout doesn’t necessarily have the gas to keep going. Market makers get bored : Thin markets mean it’s easier for a few big orders to push prices where they want. Welcome to manipulation season (there, we said what we said!). Algos go wild : With fewer humans around, algorithms dominate. And they love playing games around key levels. 🧊 The Mirage Setup: A Cautionary Tale Let’s say you’re watching GameStop NYSE:GME stock. Resistance at $30. Price hovers there for days, teasing a breakout. Then — boom — a sudden 6% pop above. You buy. Everyone buys. The trading community goes nuts. “This is it bois!” But there’s a problem. Look at the volume: a trickle. Not even half the average daily volume. Ten minutes later, NYSE:GME is back below $30, your stop loss is hit, and you’re left explaining to your cat why you’re emotionally invested in a ticker. Moral of the story? Don’t trust breakouts when no one’s trading. 📉 Volume: Your Summer Lie Detector Volume is more than just a histogram under your chart. It’s your truth serum. Your smoke alarm. Your buddy who tells you to think twice before jumping in that trade. Here’s how to read it right when everyone else is checking out: Confirm the move : If price breaks out, but volume doesn’t spike at least 20–30% above the average — be suspicious. Look for acceleration : Healthy moves gather steam. You want to see volume growing into the breakout, not fizzling. Watch for volume cliffs : A sudden volume drop right after a breakout often signals that the move is running on fumes. Add Volume Profile Indicators : Just to be safe, you can always add Volume Profile Indicators to your chart — they analyze both price and volume and can highlight what your keen eye might miss. Remember what happened last summer? And how we all learned the downside of something called "carry trade"? Those who were short the Japanese yen remember . 🧠 Context Over Candles: Be a Liquidity Detective Let’s say you see a double top pattern — your favorite. Clean lines. Tight price action. Perfect setup. But now zoom out. It’s July 3. Pre-holiday half-day. No volume. And the S&P 500 SP:SPX has moved 0.04% all day. Still want in? Technical analysis doesn’t work in a vacuum. Chart patterns lose their predictive power when the environment they live in is compromised. And thin liquidity is a compromised environment. 🐍 Snakes in the Sand: How Market Makers Bait Traps Market makers (and large players) are like desert snakes — quiet, patient, and very good at making you move when you shouldn’t. Here’s how they bait traders in illiquid markets: Run stops above resistance to trigger breakout buyers. Dump shares immediately after breakout to trap retail. Ride the reversal as trapped longs scramble to exit. They’re so powerful some say they run the game — and can stop it anytime it’s not going their way (remember the GameStop freeze? ) It’s a psychological game — and in the summer, it’s easier to do shenanigans because most players aren’t watching. Don’t be the one jumping at shadows. Be the trader who expects the trap. 🛠️ How to Survive (and Thrive) in the Summer Slump Not all is lost. You can still trade — smartly. Here’s your Summer Survival Toolkit : Wait for volume confirmation on every breakout. Lower your position size . Less liquidity = more slippage risk. Set wider stops , or better yet, sit out the chop. Focus on trending names with relative strength and solid weight (think: tech titans, oil plays, or financials). Use alerts instead of staring at charts . Don’t mistake boredom for opportunity. And most importantly: Know when not to trade . Discipline is a position too. 🔚 Final Word: This Isn’t the Off-Season. It’s the Setup Season. Summer might feel slow, but it’s not dead. Smart traders know that the best trades of Q3 and Q4 often begin in July — as early trendlines form, consolidation patterns develop, and institutional footprints quietly appear in the tape. So use this time wisely. Don’t force trades. Watch volume like a hawk. And never forget: the best breakouts don’t need hype — they bring their own thunder. Stay cool, stay patient, and trade smart. The mirage may be tempting, but the oasis always belongs to the ones who go far enough and don’t give up. Off to you : How are you navigating trading during the summer months? Staying poolside with one eye on the charts or actively seeking out opportunities while folks catch a break? Share your insights in the comments!
SP:SPXEducation
by TradingView
14
VWMA : Example Volume weighted Moving Average 🔍 VWMA in Crypto Trading Smarter than simple MAs. Powered by volume. What is VWMA? 🎯 VWMA = Price + Volume Combined Unlike SMA/EMA, VWMA gives more weight to high-volume candles. ✅ Shows where the real trading pressure is. Why Use VWMA? 💥 Volume Confirms Price Price movement + High Volume = Stronger Signal VWMA adjusts faster when volume spikes 📊 More reliable in volatile crypto markets. Some VWMA Settings 📊 Optimal VWMA Periods by Timeframe 🕒 15m – VWMA 20 → For scalping 🕞 30m – VWMA 20/30 → Intraday breakouts 🕐 1h – VWMA 30/50 → Trend filter + RSI combo 🕓 4h – VWMA 50/100 → Swing trading 📅 1D – VWMA 50/100/200 → Macro trend + S/R levels Go through different settings to see what suits you best. VWMA in Action 📈 Price Above VWMA = Bullish Strength More confidence in uptrend Especially valid during high volume surges 🟢 Great confluence with MA 7/9 in short-term setups Dynamic Support/Resistance 🛡️ VWMA Reacts to Market Strength Acts as dynamic support or resistance—especially when volume increases. Useful in catching pullback entries or trailing SLs. 🚦 Filter Fakeouts with VWMA + MA ✅ Use in confluence for stronger edge. Tips for VWMA 📌 Use shorter VWMA (20–30) for entries 📌 Use longer VWMA (50–200) for trend validation 🎯 Works best in trending, high-volume conditions
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CmpCryptoInsights
3
Trading Without an Edge Is Like Gambling Without the FunAt least in Vegas, you get free drinks. Let’s cut the fluff. You want to make money trading. But here’s the problem no one wants to admit: Most traders don’t have an edge. And they trade anyway. Which means they’re not traders. They’re just expensive gamblers in denial. 🎰 W elcome to the Casino Called “Charts” In Vegas, the odds are clearly displayed. You know the house has the advantage. But in trading? You convince yourself you are the house. You say things like: -“This setup worked for someone on YouTube.” - “Price is oversold, so it has to bounce.” - “I just have a feeling it’ll go up.” That’s not a strategy. That’s astrology. If you can’t define your edge in one sentence, you don’t have one. And if your edge isn’t tested over at least 100 trades — it’s fantasy. 🧠 What Is an Edge, Anyway? An edge is not a pattern. It’s not always your gut. It’s a repeatable, testable advantage in the market. It could be: - A statistical tendency in price behavior - A setup with positive risk-to-reward over time - A timing structure that aligns with volume or volatility - Even psychological edge (you stay calm when others panic) But here’s the key: An edge is something that works often enough, with controlled risk, and consistent execution. ☠️ What Happens When You Don’t Have One Let’s break it down. Trading without an edge leads to: - Random outcomes that feel emotional - Overtrading because you’re chasing the next “feel good” moment - Misplaced confidence after a few lucky wins - Explosive losses when luck runs out And worst of all? You think you’re improving… But in reality, you’re just getting better at losing slower. 🍹 At Least Vegas Gives You Something Back Here’s the irony: In Vegas, the drinks are free. You get a show. You laugh. You know it’s a gamble. In trading? - You pay for your losses - You pay for your education - You pay for your psychology coach - And nobody even gives you a free mojito. If you're going to lose money without an edge, you might as well enjoy the music. 🎯 So How Do You Actually Get an Edge? 1. Backtest. Find a setup that repeats. Track it. Chart it. Obsess over it. 2. Track your stats. Your win rate, average R, time in trade. Know thyself. 3. Simplify. An edge isn’t 12 indicators. It’s one thing done well. 4. Survive first, thrive later. If you’re not around after 100 trades, your edge won’t matter anyway. 5. Learn from pain, not just profit. Your losers have more to teach than your winners. 🧘 Final Thought – Stop Playing Pretend If you wouldn’t go to a casino and bet $1000 on 25 without knowing the odds… Why are you doing that in the markets? Don’t call it trading if it’s actually coping. Don’t call it strategy if it’s actually guessing.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
11
Time to Demand Accountability from the Swiss National Bank (SNB)For far too long, the Swiss National Bank (SNB) have operated behind closed doors, shaping global financial realities in ways that disproportionately benefit a few and burden many. Their repeated currency interventions, most notably the artificial caps on EUR/CHF and USD/CHF exchange rates, reflect a deeper issue: a system where monetary sovereignty is manipulated to protect domestic interests at the expense of global fairness. The Swiss National Bank (SNB) has used its monetary tools not just to stabilize its domestic economy, but to quietly exercise power over others. Through aggressive currency interventions, low interest rates, and strategic positioning of the Swiss franc as a "safe haven," the SNB has contributed to a financial system where many countries are locked into debt arrangements they can never realistically escape. This didn’t start yesterday. Here’s the history they don’t talk about: 🔹 Post–World War II Era: Switzerland remained neutral during the war and emerged with a strong financial system. It quickly became a key player in the Eurodollar market, which allowed banks (including Swiss ones) to lend US dollars offshore, outside of U.S. regulation. Many developing countries, desperate for post-war reconstruction funds, turned to these offshore lenders — often at terms that later proved unsustainable when the global interest rate environment shifted. 🔹 1970s–1980s Debt Crisis: Swiss banks (along with others in the West) extended massive loans to developing countries — Latin America, Africa, parts of Asia — often encouraged by global institutions like the IMF and World Bank. These loans were typically denominated in Swiss francs or U.S. dollars, making repayment dependent on stable exchange rates. But when the Swiss franc appreciated sharply in the 1980s and 1990s, many of these countries suddenly found their debts unpayable. The result: structural adjustment programs, austerity, privatization, and decades of dependency. 🔹 Eastern Europe, 2000s–2010s: Swiss franc–denominated mortgages were pushed heavily in countries like Poland, Hungary, and Croatia, offering lower interest rates than local currencies. When the franc soared after the 2008 financial crisis and the SNB abandoned its EUR/CHF floor in 2015, borrowers saw their payments skyrocket overnight. Entire generations were trapped in personal debt — because of monetary decisions made in a country they had no vote in. 🔹 Modern Times – SNB as “Safe Haven” Weaponizer: The SNB’s current cap on EUR/CHF (around 0.93) and its suppression of USD/CHF below 0.82 reflect the same pattern: Switzerland manipulating its currency to protect its export sector and keep foreign capital flowing in. Meanwhile, countries that borrowed in francs or depend on euro/franc parity for stability are squeezed. Why This Matters Today These practices aren’t just economic strategies — they are levers of control. Countries that fall into this debt trap often lose control of monetary policy, domestic budgets, and even sovereign decision-making. The SNB, unlike elected governments, answers to almost no one internationally. Yet its decisions affect millions beyond Swiss borders. Let’s not stay silent just because it's Switzerland — a country with a reputation for neutrality and peace. Behind the banking halls and pristine image lies a long pattern of quiet domination through debt.
Education
by Deadly_Snake
An example of a new way to interpret the OBV indicator Hello, traders. If you "follow", you can always get new information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- I think the reason why there are difficulties in using auxiliary indicators and why they say not to use indicators is because they do not properly reflect the price flow. Therefore, I think many people use indicators added to the price part because they reflect the price flow. However, I think auxiliary indicators are not used that much. Among them, indicators related to trading volume are ambiguous to use and interpret. To compensate for this, the OBV indicator has been modified and added. - The ambiguous part in interpreting the OBV indicator is that the price flow is not reflected. Therefore, even if it performs its role well as an auxiliary indicator, it can be difficult to interpret. To compensate for this, the High Line and Low Line of the OBV auxiliary indicator have been made to be displayed in the price section. That is, High Line = OBV High, Low Line = OBV Low - Then, let's interpret the OBV at the current price position. The OBV of the auxiliary indicator is currently located near the OBV EMA. That is, the current OBV is located within the Low Line ~ High Line section. However, if you look at the OBV High and OBV Low indicators displayed in the price section, you can see that it has fallen below the OBV Low indicator. In other words, you can see that the price has fallen below the Low Line of the OBV indicator. You can see that the OBV position of the auxiliary indicator and the OBV position displayed in the price section are different. Therefore, in order to normally interpret the OBV of the auxiliary indicator, the price must have risen above the OBV Low indicator in the price section. If not, you should consider that the interpretation of the OBV of the auxiliary indicator may be incorrect information. In other words, if it fails to rise above the OBV Low indicator, you should interpret it as a high possibility of eventually falling and think about a countermeasure for that. Since time frame charts below the 1D chart show too fast volatility, it is recommended to use it on a 1D chart or larger if possible. - It is not good to analyze a chart with just one indicator. Therefore, you should comprehensively evaluate by adding different indicators or indicators that you understand. The indicators that I use are mainly StochRSI indicator, OBV indicator, and MACD indicator. I use these indicators to create and use M-Signal indicator, StochRSI(20, 50, 80) indicator, and OBV(High, Low) indicator. DOM(60, -60) indicator is an indicator that comprehensively evaluates DMI, OBV, and Momentum indicators to display high and low points. And, there are HA-Low, HA-High indicators, which are my basic trading strategy indicators that I created for trading on Heikin-Ashi charts. Among these indicators, the most important indicators are HA-Low, HA-High indicators. The remaining indicators are auxiliary indicators that are necessary when creating trading strategies or detailed response strategies from HA-Low, HA-High indicators. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
5
How to Choose Chart Types in TradingViewThis tutorial covers the 21 chart types available in TradingView, explaining what each one is, how to read it, as well as the advantages and drawbacks. Learn more about trading futures with Optimus Futures using the TradingView platform here: www.optimusfutures.com Disclaimer: There is a substantial risk of loss in futures trading. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Please trade only with risk capital. We are not responsible for any third-party links, comments, or content shared on TradingView. Any opinions, links, or messages posted by users on TradingView do not represent our views or recommendations. Please exercise your own judgment and due diligence when engaging with any external content or user commentary. This video represents the opinion of Optimus Futures and is intended for educational purposes only. Chart interpretations are presented solely to illustrate objective technical concepts and should not be viewed as predictive of future market behavior. In our opinion, charts are analytical tools—not forecasting instruments. Market conditions are constantly evolving, and all trading decisions should be made independently, with careful consideration of individual risk tolerance and financial objectives.
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by OptimusFutures
4
Volume Speaks Louder: My Custom Volume Indicator for Futures My Indicator Philosophy: Think Complex, Model Simple In my first “Modeling 101” class as an undergrad, I learned a mantra that’s stuck with me ever since: “Think complex, but model simple.” In other words, you can imagine all the complexities of a system, but your actual model doesn’t have to be a giant non-convex, nonlinear neural network or LLM—sometimes a straightforward, rule-based approach is all you need. With that principle in mind, and given my passion for trading, I set out to invent an indicator that was both unique and useful. I knew countless indicators already existed, each reflecting its creator’s priorities—but none captured my goal: seeing what traders themselves are thinking in real time . After all, news is one driver of the market, but you can’t control or predict news. What you can observe is how traders react—especially intraday—so I wanted a simple way to gauge that reaction. Why intraday volume ? Most retail traders (myself included) focus on shorter timeframes. When they decide to jump into a trade, they’re thinking within the boundaries of a single trading day. They rarely carry yesterday’s logic into today—everything “resets” overnight. If I wanted to see what intraday traders were thinking, I needed something that also resets daily. Price alone didn’t do it, because price continuously moves and never truly “starts over” each morning. Volume, however, does reset at the close. And volume behaves like buying/selling pressure—except that raw volume numbers are always positive, so they don’t tell you who is winning: buyers or sellers? To turn volume into a “signed” metric, I simply use the candle’s color as a sign function. In Pine Script, that looks like: isGreenBar = close >= open isRedBar = close < open if (not na(priceAtStartHour)) summedVolume += isGreenBar ? volume : -volume This way, green candles add volume and red candles subtract volume, giving me positive values when buying pressure dominates and negative values when selling pressure dominates. By summing those signed volumes throughout the day, I get a single metric—let’s call it SummedVolume—that truly reflects intraday sentiment. Because I focus on futures markets (which have a session close at 18:00 ET), SummedVolume needs to reset exactly at session close. In Pine, that reset is as simple as: if (isStartOfSession()) priceAtStartHour := close summedVolume := 0.0 Once that bar (6 PM ET) appears, everything zeroes out and a fresh count begins. SummedVolume isn’t just descriptive—it generates actionable signals. When SummedVolume rises above a user-defined Long Threshold, that suggests intraday buying pressure is strong enough to consider a long entry. Conversely, when SummedVolume falls below a Short Threshold, that points to below-the-surface selling pressure, flagging a potential short. You can fine-tune those thresholds however you like, but the core idea remains: • Positive SummedVolume ⇒ net buying pressure (bullish) • Negative SummedVolume ⇒ net selling pressure (bearish) Why do I think it works: Retail/intraday traders think in discrete days. They reset their mindset at the close. Volume naturally resets at session close, so by signing volume with candle color, I capture whether intraday participants are predominantly buying or selling—right now. Once again: “Think complex, model simple.” My Daily Volume Delta (DVD) indicator may look deceptively simple, but five years of backtesting have proven its edge. It’s a standalone gauge of intraday sentiment, and it can easily be combined with other signals—moving averages, volatility bands, whatever you like—to amplify your strategy. So if you want a fresh lens on intraday momentum, give SummedVolume a try.
CME_MINI:NQ1!Education
by QuantByBoji
2
When and How to Use Weekly Time Frame in Gold Forex Trading Ignoring weekly time frame chart analysis could cost you big losses in Forex, Gold trading! Discover 3 specific cases when weekly time frame beats daily time frame analysis. Learn the situations when weekly timeframe exposes what daily charts can’t, how to analyze it properly and when to check it. 1. Long-term historic levels When the market trades in a strong bullish or bearish trend and goes beyond recent historic levels, quite often the daily time frame will not be sufficient for the identification of significant supports and resistances. The proven way to identify the next meaningful levels will be to analyze a weekly time frame. Examine a price action on EURAUD forex pair on a daily time frame chart. The market is trading in a strong bullish trend and just updated the high. Checking the historic price action, we don't see any historic resistance on the left. Switching to a weekly time frame chart, we can easily recognize a historic resistance that the price respected 5 years ago. That's a perfect example when weekly t.f revealed a historic price action that a daily didn't. 2. Trend-lines Weekly time frame analysis is important not only for a search of historic levels. It can help you find significant vertical structures - the trend lines. We can easily find several meaningful historic resistances on EURUSD pair on a daily time frame. Though, there are a lot of historic structures there, let's check if there are some hidden structures on a weekly. Weekly time frame reveals 2 important trend lines, one being a vertical support and another being a vertical resistance. With a daily time frame analysis, these trend lines would be missed . 3. More accurate breakout confirmations Some false support and resistance breakouts that you see on a daily could be easily avoided with a weekly time frame analysis. Quite regularly, a daily time frame support or resistance is in fact a weekly structure. And for its breakout, a weekly candle close will provide more accurate confirmation. From a daily time frame perspective, we see a confirmed breakout - a daily candle close above a solid resistance zone. It provides a strong bullish signal on AUDUSD forex pair. However, the violation turned out to be false and dropped. Such a false breakout , could be easily avoided, checking a weekly time frame chart. The underlined resistance is in fact a weekly structure. The price did not manage to close above, and perfectly respected that, starting to fall after its test. Such a deeper analysis would completely change our bias from strong bullish (based solely on a daily) to strongly bearish (based on a daily AND weekly) Remember This Do not ignore and always check a weekly time frame. It shows a unique perspective on the market and reveals a lot of hidden elements that you would not notice. No matter whether you are a scalper, day trader or swing trader, remember that weekly time frame structures are very impactful and accumulate large trading volumes. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Market Crashing? How to Profit from the Dips?Every time the market crashes, do you feel like it's over? What if those red candles are exactly what pros are waiting for? In this post, I’ll show you how fear can become profit. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Ethereum : After a strong recent surge, ETH maintains its bullish momentum, backed by solid trading volume and a well-defined upward structure. A crucial daily support zone—aligned with both a Fibonacci area and a rising trendline—continues to hold firm. My primary target is the psychological $3,000 mark, offering around 14% potential upside if the current momentum persists. 🔍 Now , let's dive into the educational section, 💥 Market Psychology: Why Traders Panic in Crashes When red candles start stacking up, most traders go into “exit” mode. Emotions like fear of losing money, social pressure, and FUD override logic. The average trader sells at the worst possible moment. Why? Because no one taught them that corrections are part of a healthy market. Meanwhile, seasoned players understand that bear markets are not the end — they're prime territory for growth. Fear is not a warning; it's often a signal. 📊 TradingView Tools to Catch Gold in the Red TradingView is more than just a charting platform — it's a full toolkit for reading the market’s emotional state. One of the most effective tools during dips is the Volume Profile . It reveals where big money is stacking up. When prices fall but volume spikes, it often signals accumulation by whales. Another useful resource is the Fear & Greed Index , which, while external, can be embedded in custom TradingView dashboards to gauge sentiment. Then there's RSI on lower timeframes , which helps spot oversold conditions and potential reversals. MACD Divergences also offer golden entry signals when paired with price action. And here’s the real kicker: you can use Pine Script to create custom alerts for all these indicators — so you’re not just reacting to fear, you're stalking opportunity. 🧠 Flip the Script: Discount or Danger? Perspective is everything. If you see dips as danger, your instincts will push you to run. But if you see them as discounts, you’ll start planning your moves. Simple price action tools work wonders here. Look for double bottoms on the 4H, or Pin Bars on strong support zones. But be patient — always wait for confirmation. The real difference between losing and winning traders? One waits. The other guesses. 🛠 Smart Entry Strategies During Bloody Markets Let’s get practical. If the market has dropped 20%, consider using a DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) strategy. Break your capital into 3–5 parts and enter at different key support levels. Another strong setup is the Breakout-Retest Entry: wait for a key level to break, then re-enter after a pullback. Stop losses? Use the ATR to calculate realistic SL zones — and yes, you can display this dynamically on TradingView. Alerts, backtests, and auto-calculations make your game clean, not lucky. 🧩 Recap & Final Suggestion When fear floods the market, the smart see opportunity. With the right mindset and TradingView tools in hand, you can shift from panic-driven reactions to data-driven decisions. Discipline, proper tools, and a fresh perspective — that's your winning trio during a crash. Open your charts, prep your indicators, and get ready to do what the pros do: profit from fear. always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
10
The Plaza Accord of 1985 The Plaza Accord of 1985 was a coordinated effort by the G5 nations (U.S., Japan, West Germany, France, and the UK) to address the U.S. dollar's extreme strength, which had reached an all-time high of 164.720 on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) in February 1985. The dollar's overvaluation—up nearly 50% against major currencies since 1980—hurt U.S. exports, widened trade deficits (especially with Japan), and raised fears of protectionism. Here's what the G5 did to weaken the dollar: Agreement to Intervene in Currency Markets: On September 22, 1985, finance ministers and central bank governors of the G5 met at the Plaza Hotel in New York and agreed to a joint intervention strategy. They committed to selling dollars and buying other currencies, primarily the Japanese yen and German Deutsche Mark, to drive down the dollar's value. The U.S. Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bundesbank, and other central banks executed these interventions in the foreign exchange markets. Over the following months, they sold an estimated $10 billion worth of dollars, a significant amount at the time. Policy Commitments to Support the Intervention: The U.S. agreed to reduce its fiscal deficit and lower interest rates, which had been high (around 8–10% for the federal funds rate) due to the Volcker-era tight monetary policy. High rates had attracted foreign capital, strengthening the dollar. By signaling a shift toward looser policy, the U.S. aimed to reduce this capital inflow. Japan and West Germany committed to stimulating their economies through measures like lowering interest rates and increasing domestic demand. This made their currencies more attractive relative to the dollar, supporting the depreciation effort. Market Signaling and Expectations: The public announcement of the Plaza Accord sent a strong signal to markets that the G5 were unified in their goal to weaken the dollar. This shifted market expectations, encouraging speculators and investors to sell dollars, which amplified the intervention’s impact. The accord also included a target to reduce the dollar’s value by 10–12% against the yen and Deutsche Mark, giving markets a clear benchmark. Outcome: The dollar began to decline immediately after the accord. By the end of 1985, the DXY had fallen to around 140, and by 1987, it dropped to 90—a 45% decline from its peak. The yen appreciated significantly, rising from 240 yen per dollar in 1985 to 150 yen per dollar by 1987. The Deutsche Mark also strengthened, moving from 3.2 to 1.8 marks per dollar over the same period. The intervention succeeded in reducing the U.S. trade deficit with Japan and Europe in the short term, but it also led to challenges, such as Japan’s economic overheating (contributing to its asset bubble in the late 1980s) and the need for further coordination via the 1987 Louvre Accord to stabilize the dollar after it fell too far. The Plaza Accord remains a landmark example of coordinated international policy to manage currency imbalances, driven by direct market intervention, policy adjustments, and clear signaling to shift market dynamics.
ICEUS:DX1!Education
by Skinwah
Multi-Time Frame Analysis (MTF) — Explained SimplyWant to level up your trading decisions? Mastering Multi-Time Frame Analysis helps you see the market more clearly and align your trades with the bigger picture. Here’s how to break it down: 🔹 What is MTF Analysis? It’s the process of analyzing a chart using different time frames to understand market direction and behavior more clearly. 👉 Example: You spot a trade setup on the 15m chart, but you confirm trend and structure using the 1H and Daily charts. 🔹 Why Use It? ✅ Avoids tunnel vision ✅ Aligns your trades with the larger trend ✅ Confirms or filters out weak setups ✅ Helps you find strong support/resistance zones across time frames 🔹 The 3-Level MTF Framework Use this to structure your chart analysis effectively: Higher Time Frame (HTF) → Trend Direction & Key Levels 📅 (e.g., Daily or Weekly) Mid Time Frame (MTF) → Structure & Confirmation 🕐 (e.g., 4H or 1H) Lower Time Frame (LTF) → Entry Timing ⏱ (e.g., 15m or 5m) 🚀 If you’re not using MTF analysis, you might be missing critical market signals. Start implementing it into your strategy and notice the clarity it brings. 💬 Drop a comment if you want to see live trade examples using this method!
TVC:DJIEducation
by GonzooTrading
1
Gut Feeling Vs. Technical Analysis- How I Take TradesTrading Is Both Art and Science Every trader, no matter how data-driven, eventually encounters moments when they just know something about the market. That quiet internal signal: “Don’t touch this today.” Or: “Get ready. Something’s coming.” That’s not random emotion. That’s your gut feeling – and in trading, it's worth paying attention to. But here's the catch: 👉 Gut feeling alone isn’t enough. 👉 Technical analysis alone isn’t either. The real edge comes when both align. ________________________________________ What Is Gut Feeling in Trading? “Gut feeling” is a term used to describe intuitive decisions that seem to arise without conscious reasoning. In trading, it often presents as a subtle inner nudge – a warning, a hesitation, or a surge of clarity. Contrary to popular belief, it’s not just emotion. It’s often the result of: • Unconscious pattern recognition from years (or decades) of chart-watching • Internalized market behavior that doesn’t show up on an indicator • Emotional awareness, sensing when the environment isn’t right to trade Experienced traders know this isn’t “woo.” It’s pattern memory speaking quietly. ________________________________________ On the Other Hand: What We Call Technical Analysis? We all know the tools: support/resistance, price action, indicators like RSI, MACD, Bollinger Bands, maybe Smart Money Concepts or just clean trendlines, etc. Technical analysis gives us structure — measurable, repeatable setups. But let’s not pretend it captures everything: • News can spike irrationally • Liquidity can vanish when you least expect it • And sometimes, the chart says 'yes' but the market mood says 'don’t trust it' That’s where gut feeling becomes the final filter. ________________________________________ ✅ Why I Wait for Alignment Let’s be honest: most bad trades happen when you force action despite internal hesitation. Here’s how I frame decisions: ✅ Full alignment • Gut: Yes • Technicals: Yes • 👉 Take the trade ⚠️ Gut says no, but technicals agree • Gut: No • Technicals: Yes • 🚫 Wait – something’s off ⚠️ Gut says yes, but technicals are unclear • Gut: Yes • Technicals: No • 👁 Watch only – do not act ❌ No alignment • Gut: No • Technicals: No • ✅ Stay out – smart decision You’re not supposed to be in every trade. You’re supposed to be in the right trades. ________________________________________ 🔍 Real-Life Example: Gold (XAUUSD) Yesterday, Gold surged due to geopolitical escalation and renewed tariff tension. Is looking bullish now: descending trendline broken, above 3350 which acts as confluence support. 📈 The chart said: “Buy.” 🧠 But my gut said: “ No. This is an emotional move. It’s not done correcting .” So I stayed out. Why? Because if I trade while my gut says “no”, I second-guess every tick. Even if the chart is right, I start hoping it fails — just to prove my feeling was right. That’s emotional sabotage. But when gut and chart say the same thing, I don’t hesitate. Even if the trade loses, I’m at peace. I executed from clarity, not conflict. That’s not just technical skill. That’s mental edge. 🧠 How to Develop Trustworthy Intuition If you’re new or inconsistent, your “gut feeling” might just be fear, greed, or FOMO. But over time, real intuition can be trained like a muscle. 1. Screen Time The more markets you watch, the more silent patterns your brain absorbs. Eventually, you’ll “feel” momentum shifts before indicators print them. 2. Journaling Write down what you felt before each trade. Did it align with your plan? Over time, you’ll spot which feelings were intuition and which were impulse. 3. Meditation & Clarity The more you control your emotional noise, the easier it becomes to hear real signals. ________________________________________ ⚠️ Common Pitfalls: When Gut Feeling Betrays You Let’s be clear – not every gut feeling is wise. Here are some red flags: • Revenge trading disguised as confidence • FOMO masked as intuition • Fear of missing out during high volatility sessions • Fatigue or stress, which distort perception 🧠 Tip: A real gut feeling comes with calm clarity, not urgency or adrenaline. ________________________________________ 🎯 Final Thought Gut Feeling + Technical Analysis = Peace of Mind The best trades aren’t just technically correct — they’re internally clean. No doubt. No hesitation. No self-conflict. Wait for alignment. Then execute with full presence. Disclosure: I am part of TradeNation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
25
Is Bitcoin Crashing or Just a Psychological Trap Unfolding?Is this brutal Bitcoin drop really a trend shift—or just another psychological game? Candles tell a story every day, but only a few traders read it right. In this breakdown, we decode the emotional traps behind price action and show you how not to fall for them. Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: 📈 Bitcoin is currently respecting a well-structured ascending channel, with price action aligning closely with a key Fibonacci retracement level and a major daily support zone—both acting as strong technical confluence. Given the strength of this setup, a potential short-term move of at least +10% seems likely, while the broader structure remains supportive of an extended bullish scenario toward the $116K target. 🚀 Now , let's dive into the educational section, 🧠 The Power of TradingView: Tools That Spot the Mind Games When it comes to psychological traps in the market, a huge part of them can be spotted by just looking at the candles—with the right tools. TradingView offers several free indicators and features that, when combined wisely, can act like an early warning system against emotional decisions. Let’s walk through a few: Volume Profile (Fixed Range) Use the “Fixed Range Volume Profile” to see where real money is moving. If large red candles appear in low-volume zones, it often signals manipulation, not genuine sell pressure. RSI Custom Alerts Don’t just set RSI alerts at overbought/oversold levels. When RSI crashes but price barely moves, you’re watching fear being injected into the market—without actual sellers stepping in. Divergence Detectors (Free Scripts) Use public scripts to auto-detect bullish divergences. These often pop up right during panic drops and are gold mines of opportunity—if you’re calm enough to see them. These tools are not just technical—they’re psychological weapons . Master them and you’ll read the market like a mind reader. 🔍 The Candle Lies Begin One big red candle does not equal doom. It usually equals setup. Panic is a requirement before reversals. 💣 Collective Fear: The Whales' Favorite Weapon When everyone on social media screams “sell,” guess who’s quietly buying? The whales. Fear is their liquidity provider. 🧩 Liquidity Zones: The Real Target If you can’t see liquidity clusters on your chart, you're blind to half the game. Sudden crashes often aim at stop-loss and liquidation zones. 🔄 Quick Recovery = Fake Breakdown If a strong red move is followed by a sharp V-shaped bounce within 24 hours—it was likely a trap. Quick recovery often means fake fear. ⚔️ Why Most Retail Traders Sell the Bottom The brain reacts late. By the time retail decides it’s time to sell, the big players are already buying. 🧭 Real Decision Tools Over Emotion Combine RSI, divergences, and volume metrics to make your decisions. Your gut is not a strategy—your tools are. 📉 Fake Candles: How to Spot Them A candle with huge body but weak volume? Red flag. Especially on low timeframes. Always confirm with volume. 🔍 Timeframes Trick the Mind M15 always looks scarier than H4. Zoom out. What feels like a meltdown might just be a hiccup on the daily chart. 🎯 Final Answer: Crash or Trap? When you overlay psychology on top of price, traps become obvious. Don't trade the fear—trade the setup behind it. 🧨 Final Note: Summary & Suggestion Most crashes are emotional plays, not structural failures. Use TradingView’s tools to decode the fear and flip it to your advantage. Add emotional analysis to your charting, and the market will start making sense. always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
50
Explanation of indicators indicating high points Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- (BTCUSDT 1D chart) If it falls below the finger point indicated by the OBV indicator, it can be interpreted that the channel consisting of the High Line ~ Low Line is likely to turn into a downward channel. And, if it falls to the point indicated by the arrow, it is expected that the channel consisting of the High Line ~ Low Line will turn into a downward channel. Therefore, if it is maintained above the point indicated by the finger, I think it is likely to show a movement to rise above the High Line. In this situation, the price is located near the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, so its importance increases. To say that it has turned into a short-term uptrend, the price must be maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart. In that sense, the 106133.74 point is an important support and resistance point. (1W chart) The HA-High indicator is showing signs of being created at the 99705.62 point. The fact that the HA-High indicator has been created means that it has fallen from the high point range. However, since the HA-High indicator receives the value of the Heikin-Ashi chart, it indicates the middle point. In other words, the value of Heikin-Ashi's Close = (Open + High + Low + Close) / 4 is received. Since the HA-High indicator has not been created yet, we will be able to know for sure whether it has been created next week. In any case, it seems to be about to be created, and if it maintains the downward candle, the HA-High indicator will eventually be created anew. Therefore, I think it is important to be able to maintain the price by rising above the right Fibonacci ratio 2 (106178.85). Indicators that indicate high points include DOM (60), StochRSI 80, OBV High, and HA-High indicators. Indicators that indicate these high points are likely to eventually play the role of resistance points. Therefore, 1st high point range: 104463.99-104984.57 2nd high point range: 99705.62-100732.01 You should consider a response plan depending on whether there is support near the 1st and 2nd above. The basic trading strategy is to buy at the HA-Low indicator and sell at the HA-High indicator. However, if it is supported and rises in the HA-High indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise rise, and if it is resisted and falls in the HA-Low indicator, it is likely to show a stepwise decline. Therefore, the basic trading method should utilize the split trading method. Other indicators besides the HA-Low and HA-High indicators are auxiliary indicators. Therefore, the trading strategy in the big picture should be created around the HA-Low and HA-High indicators, and the detailed response strategy can be carried out by referring to other indicators according to the price movement. In that sense, if we interpret the current chart, it should be interpreted that it is likely to show a stepwise rise since it has risen above the HA-High indicator. However, you can choose whether to respond depending on whether there is support from other indicators that indicate the high point. On the other hand, indicators that indicate the low point include the DOM (-60), StochRSI 20, OBV Low, and HA-Low indicators. These indicators pointing to lows are likely to eventually serve as support points. I will explain this again when the point pointing to the lows has fallen. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. -------------------------------------------------- - ​​Here is an explanation of the big picture. (3-year bull market, 1-year bear market pattern) I will explain the details again when the bear market starts. ------------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
Weather and Corn: A Deep Dive into Temperature Impact1. Introduction: Corn and Climate – An Inseparable Relationship For traders navigating the corn futures market, weather isn't just a background noise—it's a market mover. Few agricultural commodities are as sensitive to environmental variables as corn, especially temperature. Corn is grown across vast regions, and its development is directly tied to how hot or cold the season plays out. This makes weather not just a topic of interest but a core input in any corn trader’s playbook. In this article, we go beyond conventional wisdom. Instead of simply assuming “hotter equals bullish,” we bring data into the equation—weather data normalized by percentile, matched with price returns on CME Group's corn futures. The results? Useful for anyone trading ZC or MZC contracts. 2. How Temperature Affects Corn Physiology and Yields At the biological level, corn thrives best in temperatures between 77°F (25°C) and 91°F (33°C) during its growth stages. During pollination—a critical yield-defining window—extreme heat (especially above 95°F / 35°C) can cause irreversible damage. When hot weather coincides with drought, the impact on yields can be catastrophic. Historical drought years like 2012 and 1988 serve as powerful examples. In 2012, persistent heat and dryness across the US Midwest led to a national yield drop of over 25%, sending futures skyrocketing. But heat doesn't always spell disaster. Timing matters. A heat wave in early June may have little impact. That same wave during tasseling in July? Major consequences. 3. The Market Mechanism: How Traders Respond to Temperature Surprises Markets are forward-looking. Futures prices don’t just reflect today’s weather—they reflect expectations. A dry June may already be priced in by the time USDA issues its report. This dynamic creates an interesting challenge for traders: separating noise from signal. During July and August—the critical reproductive phase—temperature updates from NOAA and private forecasters often trigger major moves. Rumors of an incoming heat dome? Corn futures might gap up overnight. But if it fizzles out, retracements can be just as dramatic. Traders who rely on headlines without considering what’s already priced in are often late to the move. 4. Our Analysis: What the Data Reveals About Corn and Temperature To cut through the fog, we performed a percentile-based analysis using decades of weather and price data. Rather than looking at raw temperatures, we classified each week into temperature “categories”: Low Temperature Weeks: Bottom 25% of the historical distribution Normal Temperature Weeks: Middle 50% High Temperature Weeks: Top 25% We then analyzed weekly percentage returns for the corn futures contract (ZC) in each category. The outcome? On average, high-temperature weeks showed higher volatility—but not always higher returns. In fact, the data revealed that some extreme heat periods were already fully priced in, limiting upside. 5. Statistically Significant or Not? T-Tests and Interpretation To test whether the temperature categories had statistically significant impacts on weekly returns, we ran a t-test comparing the “Low” vs. “High” temperature groups. The result: highly significant. Corn returns during high-temperature weeks were, on average, notably different than those during cooler weeks, with a p-value far below 0.01 (4.10854357245787E-13). This tells us that traders can't ignore temperature anomalies. Extreme heat does more than influence the narrative—it materially shifts price behavior. That said, the direction of this shift isn't always bullish. Sometimes, high heat correlates with selling, especially if it’s viewed as destructive beyond repair. 6. Strategic Takeaways for Corn Traders Traders can use this information in several ways: Anticipatory Positioning: Use temperature forecasts to adjust exposure ahead of key USDA reports. Risk Management: Understand that volatility spikes in extreme temperature conditions and plan stops accordingly. Calendar Sensitivity: Prioritize weather signals more heavily in July than in May, when crops are less vulnerable. Combining weather percentile models with weekly return expectations can elevate a trader’s edge beyond gut feel. 7. CME Group Corn Futures and Micro Corn Contracts Corn traders have options when it comes to accessing this market. The flagship ZC futures contract from CME Group represents 5,000 bushels of corn and is widely used by commercial hedgers and speculators alike. For those seeking more precision or lower capital requirements, the recently launched Micro Corn Futures (MZC) represent just 1/10th the size. This fractional sizing makes temperature-driven strategies more accessible to retail traders, allowing them to deploy seasonal or event-based trades without excessive risk exposure. Here are some quick key points to remember: Tick size for ZC is ¼ cent (0.0025) per bushel, equating to $12.50 per tick. For MZC, each tick is 0.0050 equating to $2.50 per tick. Standard ZC initial margin is approximately $1,000 and MZC margins are around $100 per contract, though this can vary by broker. 8. Wrapping Up: Temperature's Role in a Complex Equation While temperature is a key driver in corn futures, it doesn't act in isolation. Precipitation, global demand, currency fluctuations, and government policies also play crucial roles. However, by quantifying the impact of extreme temperatures, traders gain a potential edge in anticipating market behavior. Future articles will expand this framework to include precipitation, international weather events, and multi-variable models. This article is part of a broader series exploring how weather impacts the corn, wheat, and soybean futures markets. Stay tuned for the next release, which builds directly on these insights. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
CBOT:ZC1!Education
by traddictiv