Get started

Community ideas

Mastering MACD- Complete Guide- 10 ways to trade itThe Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is a versatile indicator that can help traders navigate the markets with precision. From trend identification to momentum assessment, the MACD provides multiple actionable insights. In this educational post, we’ll explore the key ways to use MACD effectively, with an example illustration accompanying each strategy. ________________________________________ 1. Signal Line Crossovers The most common use of MACD is the signal line crossover, which identifies potential shifts in market momentum: • Bullish Signal: When the MACD line (fast-moving) crosses above the signal line (slow-moving), it suggests upward momentum is increasing. This can be an entry signal for a long trade. Bullish crossovers often occur after a period of consolidation or a downtrend, signaling a reversal in market sentiment. • Bearish Signal: When the MACD line crosses below the signal line, it signals downward momentum, often triggering a short-selling opportunity. Bearish crossovers can occur during retracements in an uptrend or at the start of a bearish reversal. How to Use: Look for confirmation from price action or other indicators, such as a breakout above a resistance level for a bullish signal or a breakdown below support for a bearish signal. It's essential to avoid acting solely on a crossover; consider volume (stocks, crypto), candle stick formations and other market conditions. Example: A bullish crossover on the daily chart on TRADENATION:XAUUSD indicates a potential buying opportunity as the price begins to rise. Add a stop-loss below recent lows to manage risk and look for a 1:2 risk:r eward in the next resistance. ________________________________________ 2. Zero Line Crossovers The MACD’s zero line acts as a boundary between bullish and bearish momentum, making it a valuable trend confirmation tool: • Above Zero: When the MACD line moves above the zero line, it confirms an uptrend, as the fast-moving average is above the slow-moving average. Sustained movement above zero often indicates a strong bullish trend. • Below Zero: A MACD line below zero reflects a downtrend, indicating bearish market conditions. Persistent movement below zero confirms bearish momentum. How to Use: Use the zero line crossover to validate trades based on other signals, such as candlestick patterns or trendline breaks. The crossover can act as a second layer of confirmation for existing trade setups. Example: MACD on a crypto pair crosses above the zero line, confirming the start of a new bullish trend. Traders can combine this with volume analysis to ensure strong market participation. ________________________________________ 3. Histogram Analysis The histogram represents the distance between the MACD line and the signal line, offering insights into momentum: • Expanding Histogram: Indicates strengthening momentum in the direction of the trend. Larger bars show increasing dominance of bulls or bears. • Contracting Histogram: Suggests weakening momentum, signaling a possible reversal or consolidation. Smaller bars indicate a loss of trend strength. How to Use: Monitor the histogram for early signs of momentum shifts before a crossover occurs. The histogram can act as a leading indicator, providing advanced warning of potential changes in price direction. Example: A shrinking histogram in a forex pair signals that the bullish momentum is losing steam, warning traders of a possible retracement. This can be a cue to tighten stop-loss levels or take partial profits. Conversely, an expanding histogram during a breakout confirms the strength of the move. ________________________________________ 4. Identifying Divergences MACD divergences are powerful tools for spotting potential reversals: • Bullish Divergence: Occurs when the price makes a lower low, but the MACD forms a higher low, signaling weakening bearish momentum. This often precedes a trend reversal to the upside. • Bearish Divergence: Happens when the price makes a higher high, but the MACD forms a lower high, indicating diminishing bullish strength. This suggests a potential reversal to the downside. How to Use: Combine divergence signals with support or resistance levels to enhance reliability. Divergences are most effective when spotted at major turning points in the market. Example: On a TRADENATION:EURUSD chart, a bearish divergence signals an upcoming price reversal from an up trend to a down trend. ________________________________________ 5. Trend Confirmation MACD confirms trends by staying consistently above or below the zero line: • Above Zero: Indicates a strong uptrend. Look for pullbacks to enter long trades. The longer the MACD remains above zero, the stronger the trend. • Below Zero: Reflects a persistent downtrend. Use rallies as opportunities to short. A sustained period below zero reinforces bearish dominance. How to Use: Use MACD’s trend confirmation alongside other trend-following tools like moving averages or Ichimoku clouds. Ensure that market conditions align with the broader trend. Example: Combining MACD trend confirmation with moving averages helps traders stay on the right side of the trend in a stock market index. For example, buy when both MACD and a 50-day moving average indicate an uptrend. Exit trades when the MACD begins to cross below zero or shows a divergence. ________________________________________ 6. Overbought and Oversold Conditions Although MACD is not traditionally an overbought/oversold indicator, extreme deviations between the MACD line and the signal line can hint at stretched market conditions: • Overbought: When the MACD line is significantly above the signal line, it may indicate a price correction is imminent. This often occurs after an extended rally. • Oversold: When the MACD line is well below the signal line, it suggests a potential rebound. Such conditions are common following sharp sell-offs. How to Use: Monitor extreme readings in conjunction with oscillators like RSI for added confidence. Look for reversals near key support or resistance levels. Example: An extended bearish move with a large MACD-signal line gap warns traders of a potential price correction. This can signal an opportunity to exit. Pair this observation with a bullish candlestick pattern to confirm the move (in this example morning star) ________________________________________ 7. Combining MACD with Other Indicators MACD works best when paired with complementary indicators to provide a more comprehensive market analysis: • RSI (Relative Strength Index): Use RSI to confirm momentum and overbought/oversold conditions. • Bollinger Bands: Validate price breakouts or consolidations with MACD signals. • Support and Resistance: Use MACD signals around key levels for confluence. How to Use: Wait for MACD signals to align with other indicator readings to improve accuracy. Cross-validation reduces false signals and increases confidence in trades. Example: A bearish MACD crossover near a key resistance level reinforces a short-selling opportunity. ________________________________________ 8. Multi-Timeframe Analysis Using MACD across different timeframes strengthens trade signals and provides context: • Higher Timeframe: Identify the broader trend to avoid trading against the market. For instance, if the daily chart shows a bullish MACD, focus on long trades in lower timeframes. • Lower Timeframe: Pinpoint precise entries and exits within the higher timeframe’s trend. The MACD on lower timeframes can help fine-tune timing. How to Use: Align MACD signals on both higher and lower timeframes to confirm trade setups. This alignment minimizes the risk of false signals. ________________________________________ 9. Customizing MACD Settings Traders can tailor MACD settings to suit different trading styles and timeframes: • Shorter Periods: Provide more sensitive signals for scalping or day trading. Shorter settings react quickly to price changes but may generate more false signals. • Longer Periods: Produce smoother signals for swing trading or position trading. Longer settings are less responsive but more reliable. How to Use: Experiment with different settings on a demo account to find what works best for your strategy. Adjust settings based on the volatility and nature of the asset. Example: A scalper uses a 5, 13, 6 MACD setting to capture quick momentum shifts in the market, while a swing trader sticks with the standard 12, 26, 9 for broader trends. Compare results across different markets to refine the approach. ________________________________________ 10. Crossovers or Divergence at Key Levels Combining MACD crossovers with price action levels enhances the reliability of trade signals: • Horizontal Levels: Use MACD signals to confirm reversals or breakouts at support and resistance levels. Crossovers near these levels are often more reliable. • Fibonacci Retracements: You can combine MACD with retracement levels to validate potential entries or exits. Confluence with retracements adds weight to the signal. How to Use: Wait for MACD signals to align with key price levels for higher probability trades. Confirmation from candlestick patterns or volume (stock and crypto) adds further credibility. Example: A bullish MACD divergence aligns with a strong support level, signaling a strong buy setup. Add confirmation with a candlestick reversal pattern, such as a piercing pattern in our case, to enhance precision. ________________________________________ Conclusion: The MACD indicator’s flexibility makes it a must-have tool for traders of all styles. By mastering these strategies and integrating them in your trading, you can elevate your trading decisions. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.
Education
by Mihai_Iacob
22
The Four Fears of Trading and the Law of HarmonyTrading is not just about charts, strategies, and numbers. It’s a psychological battlefield, where fear dominates — but there’s also an often-overlooked factor: harmony. WD Gann’s Law of Harmony teaches that markets, like people, have unique vibrations. When you trade in sync with stocks or currency pairs that ‘resonate’ with you, your confidence and performance improve. Let’s explore how combining Gann’s insights with an understanding of the Four Fears of Trading can create a balanced, more successful trading mindset. What Is the Law of Harmony? The Law of Harmony is one of WD Gann’s foundational principles. Gann believed that everything in the universe moves according to natural laws, and markets are no different. Each stock, commodity, or currency pair has its own ‘vibration’ or rhythm — a unique frequency that determines how it behaves. When a trader finds a market whose vibration aligns with their own psychological makeup and trading style, they experience greater clarity, confidence, and success. This is trading in harmony. Gann used this principle to select markets that matched his analysis style, making it easier to forecast price movements. He believed that recognizing harmony between the trader and the market was just as important as the technical setup itself. He meticulously studied time cycles, price patterns, and astrological influences to find markets that moved in predictable, harmonic ways — and traded only those that felt “right.” In essence, Gann’s Law of Harmony is about working with the market’s natural flow, not against it. When you’re in sync, trades feel clearer, decisions become easier, and success feels almost effortless. The Four Fears of Trading In a recent Twitter poll I conducted, 45% of traders admitted that fear was their toughest emotional challenge — more than greed, hope, or overconfidence. Fear in trading can be broken down into four key categories: the fear of losing money, fear of missing out (FOMO), fear of being wrong, and fear of leaving money on the table. Let’s explore each one — and how the Law of Harmony can help conquer them. 1. Fear of Losing Money This is the most common fear among traders — nobody wants to lose money. The reality, however, is that losses are an inevitable part of trading. Trading is a game of probabilities, with each trade having around a 50% chance of success. Many traders react to losses with irrational decisions like closing trades too early or holding onto losing trades in the hope they’ll bounce back. This behavior stems from loss aversion — the natural human tendency to avoid losses more than we seek equivalent gains. How the Law of Harmony helps: Trade assets that ‘vibe’ with you. Some stocks or forex pairs will naturally feel clearer and easier to predict — that’s harmony. Stop forcing bad trades. If you consistently lose on a specific pair, stop forcing it. It might not align with your psychology. Backtest your system. Develop and backtest a trading system over multiple market conditions (trending, sideways, volatile). When you find one that feels ‘right,’ stick with it. 2. Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) FOMO drives traders to jump into unplanned trades, often near market tops, for fear they’ll miss a big move. This leads to poor entries, increased risk, and reduced potential rewards. The irony? These impulsive trades often result in losses. How the Law of Harmony helps: Shift your mindset from “making money” to “following a process.” Money is a byproduct of trading in harmony with the right instruments. Accept that the market is endless. Opportunities are like waves — there’s always another one coming. When you trade in sync with a market’s natural rhythm, better setups come to you. 3. Fear of Being Wrong From childhood, we’re conditioned to avoid mistakes. In trading, however, losses are not failures — they’re feedback. The fear of being wrong can cause traders to hold onto losing trades, cut winners short, or avoid taking trades altogether. How the Law of Harmony helps: Focus on pairs or stocks that feel intuitive. When you feel more connected to an asset’s behavior, the fear of being wrong diminishes. Accept that not every market resonates with you — and that’s okay. Embrace losing trades as a natural part of the business. Even in harmony, some trades won’t work — that’s part of the rhythm. 4. Fear of Leaving Money on the Table This fear emerges when a trader exits a trade too soon, only to watch the market continue in their favor. It’s frustrating, but trying to capture every last pip is a recipe for disaster. Markets are unpredictable, and no one catches the exact top or bottom consistently. How the Law of Harmony helps: Trust the market’s rhythm. If you’re aligned with the right instrument, more opportunities will come. Define your exit strategy before entering a trade. Let go of perfection. Accept that partial profits are better than no profits. In a harmonious market relationship, consistency matters more than squeezing every move. Final Thoughts: Finding Harmony in Trading Fear is a natural part of trading — it’s part of being human. The goal isn’t to eliminate fear but to manage it. By identifying which type of fear affects you the most and combining it with Gann’s Law of Harmony, you’ll make more rational decisions and improve your long-term performance. Imagine you’re at a party. A mutual friend introduces you to a new group of people. You might vibe with some, while others give you an uncomfortable feeling. Stocks and forex pairs work the same way. You naturally gel with some, understanding their behavior and making profitable trades, while others consistently lead to losses. The secret to long-term trading success is not forcing trades or chasing markets — it’s about finding what resonates with you. Focus on the process, trade in harmony, and the profits will follow. Remember: The market doesn’t reward those who fight it. It rewards those who flow with it. Happy trading!
CAPITALCOM:GOLDEducation
by GannAstroTrader
How to Draw Trendlines Like a Pro – Rulers Out, Rules In!Hi everyone! If you don’t have any rules for drawing a trendline, then this is by far the most subjective technical analysis criterion of all. So, grab your ruler, and let’s dive in! ;) Without clear guidelines, you can draw it however you want, shaping the narrative to fit your bias. This makes it the perfect tool to talk yourself into a trade or justify staying in a bad one—there’s always a new “support” coming… If you don't have rules, you can always find some dots to connect, making it look "perfect" for you. In this post, I'll discuss buying opportunities using trendlines, share key rules for drawing them correctly, and highlight common mistakes to avoid - all with a focus on mid- and long-term investment opportunities. ------------------------- The Basics: How to Draw a Trendline The trendline is a highly effective tool for mid- and long-term investors to find an optimal buying zone for their chosen asset. I always take a full view of the chart, analyzing its entire history to find the longest trendline available. The longer the trendline, the stronger it is! To draw a trendline, we simply connect two points and wait for the third touch to confirm it. Easy, right? The strongest trendline comes from points that are easily recognizable—you should spot them in a split second. Maximum view, if possible Monthly chart, connect the dots and wait for a third one. For me, the third and fourth touches are the most reliable. If you have to look deeply to find where to draw a trendline, then it's already a first sign that it’s not strong! The best ones appear instantly. --------------------------- Two Myths About Trendlines Myth #1: "You cannot draw a trendline without three touching points." Don’t even remember from where I heard that kind of bs but as you see in the images above, yeah I can. If I have a correct lineup, the third touch is the strongest. Myth #2: "The more touches, the stronger the trendline." Yes, a trend appears stronger with more touches, but each additional touch increases the odds of a break or trend change. To buy from, let’s say, the sixth touch, there must be strong confluence factors, and fundamentals should support the investment. “The trend is your friend, until the end when it bends.” — Ed Seykota Sure, I’ve had great trades from the fifth or seventh touch, but as said, the area has to be strong, combining multiple criteria. Think of a trendline like 3-5 cm thick ice on a lake. You can’t break it with one hit, or the second, or the third. But after the fourth or fifth, it starts to crack, and by the sixth—boom! From my psychological perspective, the more touches, the weaker the trendline becomes. ----------------------- Rule #1: Wick to Wick or Body to Body If there aren't any anomalies, the trendline should always be drawn from wick to wick (image below) or body to body. Here was the trendline draw from wick to wick I mostly use body-to-body when there is a lot of noise on the chart and many large wicks that don’t show the real price behavior—whether from a panic sell-off or other unexpected market moves. Candlestick chart, the trendline drawn from body-to-body Tip! Body-to-body means drawing trendlines from closing prices to remove unnecessary noise from the chart. To make the chart even clearer, I often use a line chart (it tracks closing prices), which filters out the noise and gives a cleaner view of the price action. The same chart as above using line chart. Mistake to avoid: If you start from the wick but the second point is from the body, it's wrong. This can lead to misleading breakout trades or confusing rejection trades. If there are no significant large wicks, go from wicks. If a chart offers a lot of huge panic-sell wicks, use bodies instead to get a cleaner setup. Quite often, I use a hybrid version as well. We are investors, not traders. We need a price zone, not an exact price! In these cases, I combine wicks and closing prices to find the optimal trendline, which stays somewhere between them. Light-blue is the zone ----------------------- Rule #2: Higher Highs Strengthen the Trendline A trendline is more reliable if the price makes a new higher high (HH) after the previous rejection, and before it approaches a trendline. The third and fourth touch came from higher high (HH) levels This confirms that the recent trend is strong. If it all lines up, we can step in! ----------------------- Rule #3: Even Timing Between Touches A trendline rejection works best when the timing between touches is symmetrical. They don’t have to be perfectly equal but they also shouldn’t be wildly different - one touch being very small and another very large can weaken the trendline’s reliability. A good combinations is when the price comes from higher high levels, the next touch has an equal or fairly similar distance between previous ones. Yeah, there are quite a lot of touches, but you get the point; market symmetry plays an important role in making decisions. Warning: If the next touch comes too soon, especially from a lower high (LH) levels, which signals that momentum may be fading, and the touch happens at an uneven distance, it weakens the trendline’s reliability. So, watch out for that. Two alerts: uneven length between touches & comes from lower highs. Next red alert: When there are huge uneven gaps between touches, as shown in the picture below. The first and second touch compared to the second and third touch are out of balance, weakening the trendline's reliability. ------------------------ Trendline Summary: Key Criteria for Mid- to Long-Term Analysis Open the maximum chart view – analyze all available data for the asset. The higher the timeframe, the stronger the trendline. A trendline needs two clean and clear points to be drawn. The highest probability rejection happens at the third and fourth touch. If there are large wicks or panic sell-offs, use closing prices (body-to-body). Remove noise and wicks by using a line chart for a clearer view. A trendline touch is strongest when the price approaches from a higher high (HH). A trendline touch is strongest when the distance between touches is symmetrical. A slight flex in the trendline is ideal; it should be between 20 to 35 degrees, not too steep in its climb. ;) These are the main criteria for a trendline that I use when analyzing stocks or any asset from a mid-to long-term perspective. ---------------------- Trendlines Alone Are Not Enough Now, here’s the interesting part. Even if a trendline looks perfect and meets all criteria, I still won’t rush to share an analysis. Why? Because a trendline alone isn’t enough. A trendline is just one piece of the puzzle. We need multiple confluence factors in a single price zone to make the setup truly strong and reliable. Usually, I need at least 3-7 criteria to align before making a move or recommendation. So, that's it! A brief overview and hopefully, you found this informative. Feel free to leave a comment with your thoughts! Before you leave - Like & Boost if you find this useful! 🚀 Trade smart, Vaido
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by VaidoVeek
44
Chart Analysis and Trading Strategy (2) Hello, traders. If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly. Please also click "Boost". Have a nice day today. ------------------------------------- If you look at the candle that the finger is pointing to, you can see that it is a bearish candle with Open > Close. If you look at this on a 30m chart, you can see that it moves as follows and forms lows and highs. These candle movements come together to form a candle arrangement, and by looking at this, we ultimately set support and resistance points. As your understanding of candles deepens, you will study charts in various ways. The reason is that you may know it when you look at the chart, but you cannot when you trade. That is, because the understanding of candles is not clear. As you study the charts over and over again, you will learn that charts tend to converge to the median and average values. You learn that they converge to the median and average values ​​while studying various indicators, but you end up not knowing what you can learn from them. What is important in the arrangement of candles is that the arrangement of the Open and Close bodies and the Low and High tails that make up the candles play an important role in setting support and resistance points. I recommend that you understand this explanation through the Internet or a book. The reason is that it is something that requires a lot of time investment to acquire. - The HA-MS indicator was created to quickly display support and resistance points as objective information. Therefore, you can see that when the channel composed of the HA-Low indicator and the HA-High indicator is broken, a trend is formed, and if not, a sideways movement is shown. The HA-Low, HA-High indicators are indicators created by combining the arrangement of candles and the RSI indicator on the Heikin-Ashi chart. Therefore, the trading strategy is used to create a trading strategy depending on whether there is support near the HA-Low, HA-High indicators. The other indicators, BW(0), BW(100), DOM(-60), and DOM(60), are used as support and resistance to create a detailed response strategy. - Based on this information, trading should be divided into trading in the sideways section and trading in the trend to create a trading strategy. This trading time is created based on whether there is support in the HA-Low, HA-High indicators. Since it is made of indicators, I think it provides objective information for chart interpretation with others, reducing the room for controversy. This is the fundamental reason for using indicators. It is because we can share objective information with each other. - In trading within the sideways section, information about the trend is not particularly necessary. If you set the sideways section with your own indicator or support and resistance points, you can trade based on whether there is support at the end of that section. - However, when you leave the sideways section, information about the trend is necessary. That is why we use the M-Signal indicator and Trend Cloud indicator on the 1D, 1W, and 1M charts as indicators for the trend. For short-term information, you can use the M-Signal indicator and Trend Cloud indicator on the 1D chart. If the Trend Cloud indicator is displayed in green and the price is maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1D chart, it can be interpreted that there is a high possibility of a turn to an uptrend. If not, it can be interpreted that there is a high possibility of a downtrend. The mid- to long-term trend can be identified by checking the arrangement status of the M-Signal indicator on the 1W chart and the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. That is, if the M-Signal on the 1W chart > the M-Signal on the 1M chart, it can be interpreted that the mid- to long-term trend is maintaining an uptrend. Therefore, in order to continue the uptrend from a long-term perspective, the price must be maintained above the M-Signal indicator on the 1M chart. If not, it is recommended to make short trades if possible. - To better set the support and resistance points, look at the 1M chart > 1W chart > 1M chart in that order and draw a horizontal line on the indicators (HA-Low, HA-High, BW(0), BW(100), DOM(-60), DOM(60)) displayed on the chart and mark them on the chart. Mark the support and resistance points on the chart as above. This marks the support and resistance points with the low and high points. - It is not easy to start trading at the low or high points every time. Therefore, as I mentioned earlier, it is important to create a detailed response strategy based on the median and average values. For this, the StochRSI 50 indicator is displayed. In addition, the Close of the Heikin-Ashi chart of the 1D chart, which can be usefully utilized when trading below the 1D chart, is added. ------------------------------------------------- The information I mentioned above is ultimately information that can be obtained through chart analysis. You can create a trading strategy by deciding whether to check it directly with your eyes and indicate support and resistance points, or to use an indicator that can be checked more quickly. Chart analysis is about understanding the movement of the chart, and actual trading is conducted according to the trading strategy. You may think that chart analysis is the trading strategy, but it is not. No matter how well you analyze charts with your eyes, if you analyze charts when your psychological state is unstable due to subjective thoughts based on various information other than the chart, as I mentioned earlier, you may end up trading in the wrong direction. To prevent this, it is necessary to use indicators so that subjective thoughts are not applied. Even if you start trading at the support and resistance points created by the indicator, and it goes in the opposite direction and you suffer a loss, the influence will be weak. The reason is that you created a trading strategy with the support and resistance points created by the indicator in advance. Things to consider when starting a trade in a trading strategy are: 1. When to buy or how to buy 2. When to cut loss or how to cut loss 3. How to realize profit For this reason, it is important to set support and resistance points through chart analysis. - It is better to do chart analysis briefly. If you spend too much time analyzing charts, you may end up being trapped in your own subjective thoughts, so be careful. I think you can tell whether you will do chart analysis in an analyst-like manner or in a chart analysis necessary for trading by looking at how the support and resistance points are marked on the chart. The ideas of chart analysis often do not include things that need to be considered when starting a trade. Therefore, in order to apply them to actual trading, you need to create a trading strategy through chart analysis. The chart analysis for trading reduces the need for separate chart analysis because the information necessary for the trading strategy is displayed on the chart. However, it may need to change depending on your investment style or the time frame chart you are actually trading on, but it can be advantageous for trading because the support and resistance points are marked. To ensure this, you need to create an indicator and receive support and resistance points as objective information. - Thank you for reading to the end. I hope you have a successful trade. --------------------------------------------------
Education
by readCrypto
2
Behind the Curtain: Unveiling Gold’s Economic Catalysts1. Introduction Gold Futures (GC, MGC and 1OZ), traded on the CME market, are one of the most widely used financial instruments for hedging against inflation, currency fluctuations, and macroeconomic uncertainty. As a safe-haven asset, gold reacts to a wide range of economic indicators, making it crucial for traders to understand the underlying forces driving price movements. By leveraging machine learning, specifically a Random Forest Regressor, we analyze the top economic indicators influencing Gold Futures on daily, weekly, and monthly timeframes. This data-driven approach reveals the key catalysts shaping GC Futures and provides traders with actionable insights to refine their strategies. 2. Understanding Gold Futures Contracts Gold Futures (GC) are among the most actively traded futures contracts, offering traders and investors exposure to gold price movements with a range of contract sizes to suit different trading strategies. CME Group provides three types of Gold Futures contracts to accommodate traders of all levels: o Standard Gold Futures (GC): Contract Size: Represents 100 troy ounces of gold. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.10 per ounce, equating to $10 per tick per contract. Purpose: Ideal for institutional traders and large-scale hedgers. Margin: Approximately $12,500 per contract. o Micro Gold Futures (MGC): Contract Size: Represents 10 troy ounces of gold, 1/10th the size of the standard GC contract. Tick Size: Each tick is $1 per contract. Purpose: Allows smaller-scale traders to participate in gold markets with lower capital requirements. Margin: Approximately $1,250 per contract. o 1-Ounce Gold Futures (1OZ): Contract Size: Represents 1 troy ounce of gold. Tick Size: Each tick is 0.25 per ounce, equating to $0.25 per tick per contract. Purpose: Provides precision trading for retail participants who want exposure to gold at a smaller contract size. Margin: Approximately $125 per contract. Keep in mind that margin requirements vary through time as market volatility changes. 3. Daily Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Gold Futures respond quickly to short-term economic fluctuations, and three key indicators play a crucial role in daily price movements: o Velocity of Money (M2): Measures how quickly money circulates within the economy. A higher velocity suggests increased spending and inflationary pressure, often boosting gold prices. A lower velocity indicates stagnation, which may reduce inflation concerns and weigh on gold. o Unemployment Rate: Reflects the strength of the labor market. Rising unemployment increases economic uncertainty, often driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Declining unemployment can strengthen risk assets, potentially reducing gold’s appeal. o Oil Import Price Index: Represents the cost of imported crude oil, influencing inflation trends. Higher oil prices contribute to inflationary pressures, supporting gold as a hedge. Lower oil prices may ease inflation concerns, weakening gold demand. 4. Weekly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators While daily fluctuations impact short-term traders, weekly economic data provides a broader perspective on gold price movements. The top weekly indicators include: o Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP): Measures the number of new jobs added in the U.S. economy each month. Strong NFP numbers typically strengthen the U.S. dollar and increase interest rate hike expectations, pressuring gold prices. Weak NFP figures can drive economic uncertainty, increasing gold’s safe-haven appeal. o Nonfarm Productivity: Represents labor efficiency and economic output per hour worked. Rising productivity suggests economic growth, potentially reducing demand for gold. Falling productivity can signal economic weakness, increasing gold’s appeal. o Personal Spending: Tracks consumer spending habits, influencing economic activity and inflation expectations. Higher spending can lead to inflation, often pushing gold prices higher. Lower spending suggests economic slowing, which may either weaken or support gold depending on inflationary outlooks. 5. Monthly Timeframe: Key Economic Indicators Long-term trends in Gold Futures are shaped by macroeconomic forces that impact investor sentiment, inflation expectations, and interest rates. The most influential monthly indicators include: o China GDP Growth Rate: China is one of the largest consumers of gold, both for investment and jewelry. Strong GDP growth signals robust demand for gold, pushing prices higher. Slower growth may weaken gold demand, applying downward pressure on prices. o Corporate Bond Spread (BAA - 10Y): Measures the risk premium between corporate bonds and U.S. Treasury bonds. A widening spread signals economic uncertainty, increasing demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. A narrowing spread suggests confidence in risk assets, potentially reducing gold’s appeal. o 10-Year Treasury Yield: Gold has an inverse relationship with bond yields since it does not generate interest. Rising yields increase the opportunity cost of holding gold, often leading to price declines. Falling yields make gold more attractive, leading to price appreciation. 6. Risk Management Strategies Given gold’s volatility and sensitivity to macroeconomic changes, risk management is essential for trading GC Futures. Key risk strategies may include: Monitoring Global Liquidity Conditions: Keep an eye on M2 Money Supply and inflation trends to anticipate major shifts in gold pricing. Interest Rate Sensitivity: Since gold competes with yield-bearing assets, traders should closely track interest rate movements. Higher 10-Year Treasury Yields can weaken gold’s value as a non-yielding asset. Diversification and Hedging: Traders can hedge gold positions using interest rate-sensitive assets such as bonds or inflation-linked securities. Gold often performs well in times of equity market distress, making it a commonly used portfolio diversifier. 7. Conclusion Gold Futures remain one of the most influential instruments in the global financial markets. By leveraging machine learning insights and macroeconomic data, traders can better position themselves for profitable trading opportunities. Whether trading daily, weekly, or monthly trends, understanding these indicators allows market participants to align their strategies with broader economic conditions. Stay tuned for the next "Behind the Curtain" installment, where we explore economic forces shaping another key futures market. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
COMEX:GC1!Education
by traddictiv
Possible vs. Probable in Trading — Most Traders Ignore ThisOne of the biggest mistakes traders make — especially beginners — is confusing what is possible with what is probable. This confusion leads to poor decisions, unnecessary risks, and eventually, losses that could have been easily avoided. Possible and Probable Are NOT the Same Thing Let's make this very clear: • Possible means it can happen. • Probable means it is likely to happen, based on evidence and context. In life, many things are possible — but that doesn’t mean we should live our lives preparing for each possible (and often extreme) event. To give you a real-life example: it’s possible that something falls from the roof top of a builing and hits you while shopping and die. Sadly, this actually happened in Romania about a month ago. But as rare and tragic as it is, it’s not probable. And it definitely doesn’t mean that we should stop going outside, right? Trading Is a Game of Probabilities, Not Possibilities When trading, we are not betting on what is possible. If we did, we would enter trades every time we imagine a price could go higher or lower — and that would be a disaster. Instead, we are betting on what is probable — based on: • Technical analysis • Price action • Market context • Volume • Sentiment ⚠️ Yes, it is always possible for price to go in either direction. But our edge comes from identifying what is more likely to happen based on the data we have. Why This Difference Is Crucial for Your Trading Success ✅ Focusing on probabilities means: • You enter only high-probability setups. • You manage risk properly because you accept that nothing is 100% sure. • You avoid chasing trades just because "it’s possible" something happens. ❌ Focusing on possibilities leads to: • Overtrading • Emotional decisions • Hoping instead of following a plan • Blowing up accounts Conclusion: Trade Like a Professional — Trade Probabilities Remember: "Anything is possible, but not everything is probable." If you want to survive and thrive in the markets, focus on probabilities — not on fantasies of what could happen. You are not trading "maybe this happens", you are trading "this is likely to happen, and I’m managing my risk if it doesn’t". Make this shift in mindset, and you’ll already be ahead of most traders out there.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
3
SUPPORTS AND RESISTANCE Support and resistance levels are key concepts that help investors navigate price movements. These levels are psychological and technical markers where a coin's price tends to slow down, reverse, or consolidate. Understanding them can make the difference between a successful trade and a missed opportunity. What Are Supports and Resistances? Support is a price level where demand for a cryptocurrency is strong enough to prevent further decline. Think of it as a floor where prices “bounce” upward. Resistance is the opposite— a ceiling where selling pressure prevents the price from rising further. These levels form due to the collective actions of traders. At support levels, buyers feel the price is low enough to enter the market. At resistance levels, sellers believe the price is high enough to secure profits. Why Don’t They Last Forever? Support and resistance levels are not permanent because market conditions, sentiment, and external factors are constantly changing. These shifts happen because of supply and demand imbalances or significant events, such as news about regulations, technological upgrades, or changes in market sentiment. Avoiding the Trap of Greed Many traders make the mistake of placing their buy or sell orders right at these levels, aiming for maximum gain. However, this approach can be risky: Support and resistance levels are zones, not fixed lines. A coin’s price might come close but not touch your order before reversing. Missed opportunities: Waiting for the “perfect” entry point might result in missing a profitable trade by a few cents. A wiser strategy is to avoid being too greedy: Place buy orders slightly above support and sell orders slightly below resistance to improve the likelihood of execution. The Big Picture Support and resistance levels are tools—not guarantees. Successful traders view them as part of a broader strategy.
Education
by Josepheil86
2
HOW-TO: Optimizing FADS for Traders with Investment MindsetIn this tutorial, we’ll explore how the Fractional Accumulation/Distribution Strategy (FADS) can help traders especially with an investment mindset manage risk and build positions systematically. While FADS doesn’t provide the fundamentals of a company which remain the trader’s responsibility, it offers a robust framework for dividing risk, managing emotions, and scaling into positions strategically. Importance of Dividing Risk by Period and Fractional Allocation Periodic Positioning FADS places entries over time rather than committing the entire position at once. This staggered approach reduces the impact of short-term volatility and minimizes the risk of overexposing the capital. Fractional Allocation Fractional allocation ensures that capital is allocated dynamically during building a position. This allows traders to scale into positions as the trade develops while spreading out the risk. Using a high volatility setting, such as a Weekly with period of 12 , optimizes trend capture by filtering out minor fluctuations. Increasing Accumulation Factor to 1.5 results in avoiding entries at high price levels, improving overall risk. Increasing the Accumulation Spread to a higher value, such as 1.5 , expands the distance between buy orders. This leads to fewer trades and a more conservative accumulation strategy. In highly volatile markets, a larger distance between entry positions can significantly improve the average cost of trades and contribute to better capital conservation. To compensate for the reduced number of trades, increasing the Averaging Power intensifies the position sizing proportionate to price action. This balances the overall risk profile by optimizing the average position cost. This approach mimics the behavior of successful institutional investors, who rarely enter the market with full exposure in a single move. Instead, they build positions over time to reduce emotional decision-making and enhance long-term consistency.
NASDAQ:TSLAEducation
by fract
10
How to Use MonthlyReturnTableMonthlyReturnTable Displays ROI, profit, maximum drawdown, and number of trades by month and year. The results may not be accurate, so use them for reference only. This script can be added to the bottom of a strategy script for use. Written in PineScript version 6. Settings Mode : Value Type ROI : Return on Investment(%) Profit : Profit Amount MDD : Maximum Drawdown(%) Trade : Number of Trades Position : Table Position - Displays the table in 9 locations on the chart, combining top/middle/bottom and left/center/right. Precision : Value Precision - Specifies decimal precision (not applied to the number of trades). Text : Font Size - 0 is automatic. MARGIN : Sets the top, bottom, left, and right margins of the table. COLOR : Sets the cell and text colors of the table. Head : Title Cell Bull : Positive Value Cell Bear : Negative Value Cell Zero : Zero Value Cell How to Apply Copy the script below and paste it at the bottom of the strategy script. Cannot be applied to private scripts that are not publicly shared. Comments can be removed. import CHULTOO/MonthlyReturnTable/1 // Output mode and table position string mode = input.string("ROI", title = "Mode", options = , group = "Monthly Return Table settings ──────────────", inline = "0", display = display.none) string tablePosition = input.string(position.bottom_right, "Position", options = , group = "Monthly Return Table settings ──────────────", inline = "0", display = display.none) // Precision and font size int precision = input.int(2, "Precision", minval = 0, group = "Monthly Return Table settings ──────────────", inline = "1", display = display.none) int textSize = input.int(12, "Text", minval = 0, group = "Monthly Return Table settings ──────────────", inline = "1", display = display.none, tooltip = "Text size 0 = Auto") // Table margins int marginTop = input.int(0, "Top", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "2", display = display.none) int marginBottom = input.int(0, "Bottom", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "2", display = display.none) int marginLeft = input.int(0, "Left", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "3", display = display.none) int marginRight = input.int(0, "Right", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "3", display = display.none) // Table colors (header, profit, loss, principal) var color colorHead = input.color(#808080, title = "Head", group = "Color", inline = "1", display = display.none) var color colorBull = input.color(#089981, title = "Bull", group = "Color", inline = "1", display = display.none) var color colorBear = input.color(#F23645, title = "Bear", group = "Color", inline = "1", display = display.none) var color colorZero = input.color(#808080, title = "Zero", group = "Color", inline = "1", display = display.none) MonthlyReturnTable.get_table(mode, tablePosition, precision, textSize, marginTop, marginBottom, marginLeft, marginRight, colorHead, colorBull, colorBear, colorZero) Application Method If the variable name mode is already used in the existing strategy, change it to a different name such as dataType. Removing precision, font size, and color settings - Since precision and font size are in the middle of the function parameters, you must delete them from the middle and explicitly specify the names of the subsequent parameters when calling the function. import CHULTOO/MonthlyReturnTable/1 // Output mode and table position string dataType = input.string("ROI", title = "Mode", options = , group = "Monthly Return Table settings ──────────────", inline = "0", display = display.none) string tablePosition = input.string(position.bottom_right, "Position", options = , group = "Monthly Return Table settings ──────────────", inline = "0", display = display.none) // Table margins int marginTop = input.int(0, "Top", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "2", display = display.none) int marginBottom = input.int(0, "Bottom", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "2", display = display.none) int marginLeft = input.int(0, "Left", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "3", display = display.none) int marginRight = input.int(0, "Right", minval = 0, group = "Margin", inline = "3", display = display.none) MonthlyReturnTable.get_table(dataType, tablePosition, marginTop = marginTop, marginBottom = marginBottom, marginLeft = marginLeft, marginRight = marginRight)
Education
by CHULTOO
Why DCA Does Not Work For Short-Term TradersIn this video I go through why DCA (Dollar Cost Averaging) does not work for short-term traders and is more suitable for investors. I go through the pitfalls than come through such techniques, as well as explain how trading should really be approached. Which at it's cost should be based on having a positive edge and using the power of compounding to grow your wealth. I hope this video was insightful, and gives hope to those trying to make it as a trader. Believe me, it's possible. - R2F Trading
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by Road_2_Funded
8
Exploring the Main Components of a Powerful Trading Journal In one of the previous posts, we discussed the significance of a trading journal. In the today's article, I will share with you the key elements of a trading journal of a professional trader. And first, a quick reminder that a trading journal is essential for your trading success. No matter on which level you are at the moment, you should always keep track of your results. Let's go through the list of the things that you should include in your journal. 1 - Trading Instrument The symbol where the order is executed. You need that in order to analyze the performance of trading a particular instrument. 2 - Date The date of the opening of the position. Some traders also include the exact time of the execution. 3 - Risk Percentage of the account balance at risk. Even though some traders track the lot of sizes instead, I do believe that the percentage data is more important and may give more insights. 4 - Entry Reason The set of conditions that were met to open the trade. In that section, I recommend to note as much data as possible. It will be applied in future for the identification of the weaknesses of your strategy. 5 - Risk Reward Ratio The expected returns in relation to potential risks. 6 - Results Gain or loss in percentage. And again, some traders track the pip value of the gain, however, in my view, the percentage points are more relevant for studying the statistics. Here is the example of the trade on Gold: Here is how exactly you should journal the following trade: Instrumet: Gold (XAUUSD) Date: 03.07.2023 Risk: 1% Entry Reason: H&S Pattern Formation, Neckline Breakout & Retest R/R Ratio: 1.77 Results: +1.77% Of course, depending on your trading strategy and your personal goals, some other elements can be added. However, the list that I propose is the absolute minimum that you should track. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️ I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
1
Forex Trend Trading: A Complete Guide for Traders📊 Market Structure: Uptrend vs. Downtrend 🔼 Uptrend Market Structure (Higher Highs & Higher Lows) Price makes higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL). Indicates buyers are in control. Traders look for buying opportunities at key support levels. Example Structure: 📍 HH → HL → Higher HH → Higher HL (trend continuation). 🔽 Downtrend Market Structure (Lower Highs & Lower Lows) Price forms lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL). Sellers dominate the market. Traders look for selling opportunities at resistance levels. Example Structure: 📍 LL → LH → Lower LL → Lower LH (trend continuation). 📌 Steps to Trade Trends Effectively 1️⃣ Identify the Trend ✅ Use a higher timeframe (H4, D1, W1) to determine the major trend. ✅ Look for HH & HL (uptrend) or LH & LL (downtrend). ✅ Use trendlines, moving averages, and price action for confirmation. 2️⃣ Find Key Support & Resistance Levels ✅ Use previous swing highs and swing lows to mark key levels. ✅ Identify trendline support & resistance zones. ✅ Look for breakouts or retests for entry confirmation. 3️⃣ Use Technical Indicators for Confirmation 🔹 Moving Averages (MA) – 50 EMA & 200 EMA for trend direction. 🔹 RSI (Relative Strength Index) – Overbought (>70) or Oversold (<30) for trend exhaustion. 🔹 MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) – Confirms trend strength & momentum. 4️⃣ Plan Your Entry & Exit Points ✅ Entry Strategy: Buy at higher lows (HL) in an uptrend. Sell at lower highs (LH) in a downtrend. Use candlestick patterns (pin bars, engulfing candles) for confirmation. ✅ Exit Strategy: Place Stop Loss (SL) below last HL (uptrend) or above LH (downtrend). Use Take Profit (TP) at key resistance/support levels. Consider trailing stop losses to maximize gains. 5️⃣ Risk Management & Trade Execution ✅ Risk-to-Reward Ratio (RRR) – Aim for at least 1:2 or higher. ✅ Position Sizing – Risk only 1-2% of your capital per trade. ✅ Monitor Trade – Adjust SL/TP as the trade progresses. 🎯 Trend Trading Strategies 📌 Pullback Trading Wait for a retracement to a support/resistance level. Enter at key Fibonacci levels (38.2%, 50%, 61.8%). Confirm with price action signals. 📌 Breakout Trading Enter when price breaks a major resistance (uptrend) or support (downtrend). Wait for a retest of broken structure before entering. Avoid false breakouts using volume confirmation. 📌 Trendline Trading Draw trendlines connecting HLs (uptrend) or LHs (downtrend). Enter when price bounces off the trendline in the direction of the trend. ⚠️ Common Mistakes to Avoid ❌ Trading against the trend without confirmation. ❌ Ignoring risk management and overleveraging. ❌ Entering too late in an extended trend. ❌ Ignoring economic news & fundamental factors. 📌 Final Thoughts ✅ Trend trading is a powerful strategy when used with proper market analysis. ✅ Always confirm trends with technical indicators & price action. ✅ Stick to your plan, manage risk, and stay disciplined for long-term success. 🔹 Happy Trading & Stay Profitable! 🚀📊
Education
by ProjectSyndicate
25
Momentum Trading Strategies Across AssetsMomentum trading is a strategy that seeks to capitalize on the continuation of existing trends in asset prices. By identifying and following assets exhibiting strong recent performance—either upward or downward—traders aim to profit from the persistence of these price movements. **Key Components of Momentum Trading:** 1. **Trend Identification:** The foundation of momentum trading lies in recognizing assets with significant recent price movements. This involves analyzing historical price data to detect upward or downward trends. 2. **Diversification:** Implementing momentum strategies across various asset classes—such as equities, commodities, currencies, and bonds—can enhance risk-adjusted returns. Diversification helps mitigate the impact of adverse movements in any single market segment. 3. **Risk Management:** Effective risk management is crucial in momentum trading. Techniques such as setting stop-loss orders, position sizing, and continuous monitoring of market conditions are employed to protect against significant losses. 4. **Backtesting:** Before deploying a momentum strategy, backtesting it against historical data is essential. This process helps assess the strategy's potential performance and identify possible weaknesses. 5. **Continuous Refinement:** Financial markets are dynamic, necessitating ongoing evaluation and adjustment of trading strategies. Regularly refining a momentum strategy ensures its continued effectiveness amid changing market conditions. **Tools and Indicators:** - **Relative Strength Index (RSI):** This momentum oscillator measures the speed and change of price movements, aiding traders in identifying overbought or oversold conditions. - **Moving Averages:** Utilizing short-term and long-term moving averages helps in smoothing out price data, making it easier to spot trends and potential reversal points. **Common Pitfalls to Avoid:** - **Overtrading:** Excessive trading can lead to increased transaction costs and potential losses. It's vital to adhere to a well-defined strategy and avoid impulsive decisions. - **Ignoring Market Conditions:** Momentum strategies may underperform during sideways or choppy markets. Recognizing the broader market environment is essential to adjust strategies accordingly. By understanding and implementing these components, traders can develop robust momentum trading strategies tailored to various asset classes, thereby enhancing their potential for consistent returns. Source: digitalninjasystems.wordpress.com
CME:LBR1!Education
by j7892
The Two-Faced Market: The Truth Behind Trend Reversals!🎭 The Two-Faced Market: The Truth Behind Trend Reversals! 📊🚀 📢 Ever entered a trade thinking you caught the perfect trend , only to get stopped out as the market reversed? You're not alone. The market has a way of fooling traders—but if you understand its “two-faced” nature, you can stay one step ahead. 🔥 Why Trends Reverse (and How to Catch It Early!) Most traders believe trends reverse due to "news" or "randomness." But in reality, the market gives signals long before the turn happens. Here’s what to watch for: 🔹 Momentum Divergence: The price makes a new high, but indicators like RSI/MACD don’t. 🔹 Volume Anomaly: The trend continues, but volume dries up—a sign of weakness. 🔹 Failed Breakouts: Price breaks a key level, only to fall back inside—trapping traders. 🔹 Candlestick Clues: Reversal patterns like engulfing candles or wicks rejecting key levels appear. 🚀 Mastering these signals can put you ahead of 90% of traders. 📊 Real Example: XAU/ USD Trend Reversal in Action 🔎 Breakdown of the setup: ✅ Step 1: Identify a trend (through market structure, trendline or moving average). ✅ Step 2: Look for failed breakouts against the trend ✅ Step 3: Look for trend-following setups 🎯 The Market’s Game: Recognizing The Shift Trends don’t die suddenly—they fade before reversing. The best traders spot the early signs and position before the crowd. 💡 Have you spotted these reversal signs before? Drop a comment with your experience! 👇🔥 📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management. Good luck! All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly! ~Rich Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
TRADENATION:XAUUSDEducation
by TheSignalyst
3
Donchian Channel Strategy like The Turtles TradersThe Turtle Traders strategy is a legendary trend-following system developed by Richard Dennis and William Eckhardt in the 1980s to prove that trading could be taught systematically to novices. Dennis, a successful commodities trader, bet Eckhardt that he could train a group of beginners—nicknamed "Turtles"—to trade profitably using strict rules. The experiment worked, with the Turtles reportedly earning over $100 million collectively. Here’s a detailed breakdown of their strategy, focusing on the core components as documented in public sources like Curtis Faith’s Way of the Turtle and other accounts from the era. Core Philosophy Trend Following: The Turtles aimed to capture large price trends in any direction (up or down) across diverse markets—commodities, currencies, bonds, and later stocks. Systematic Rules: Every decision—entry, exit, position size—was predefined. No discretion allowed. Volatility-Based: Risk and position sizing adjusted to each market’s volatility, not fixed dollar amounts. Long-Term Focus: They targeted multi-month trends, ignoring short-term noise. Two Trading Systems The Turtles used two complementary breakout systems—System 1 (shorter-term) and System 2 (longer-term). They’d trade both simultaneously across a portfolio of markets. System 1: Shorter-Term Breakout Entry: Buy when the price breaks above the 20-day high (highest high of the past 20 days). Sell short when the price breaks below the 20-day low. Skip the trade if the prior breakout (within 20 days) was profitable—avoid whipsaws after a winning move. Initial Stop Loss: Exit longs if the price drops 2N below entry (N = 20-day Average True Range, a volatility measure). Exit shorts if the price rises 2N above entry. Example: Entry at $100, N = $2, stop at $96 for a long. Trailing Stop: Exit longs if the price breaks below the 10-day low. Exit shorts if the price breaks above the 10-day high. Time Frame: Aimed for trends lasting weeks to a couple of months. System 2: Longer-Term Breakout Entry: Buy when the price breaks above the 55-day high. Sell short when the price breaks below the 55-day low. No skip rule—take every breakout, even after a winner. Initial Stop Loss: Same as System 1: 2N below entry for longs, 2N above for shorts. Trailing Stop: Exit longs if the price breaks below the 20-day low. Exit shorts if the price breaks above the 20-day high. Time Frame: Targeted trends lasting several months (e.g., 6-12 months). Position Sizing Volatility (N): N, or “noise,” was the 20-day Average True Range (ATR)—the average daily price movement. It normalized risk across markets. Unit Size: Risk 1% of account equity per trade, adjusted by N. Formula: Units = (1% of Account) / (N × Dollar Value per Point). Example: $1M account, 1% = $10,000. Corn N = 0.5 cents, $50 per point. Units = $10,000 / (0.5 × $50) = 400 contracts. Scaling In: Add positions as the trend confirms: Long: Add 1 unit every ½N above entry (e.g., entry $100, N = $2, add at $101, $102, etc.). Short: Add every ½N below entry. Max 4 units per breakout, 12 units total per market across systems. Risk Management Portfolio Limits: Max 4 units in a single market (e.g., corn). Max 10 units in closely correlated markets (e.g., grains). Max 12 units in one direction (long or short) across all markets. Stop Loss: The 2N stop capped risk per unit. If N widened after entry, the stop stayed fixed unless manually adjusted (rare). Drawdown Rule: If account dropped 10%, cut position sizes by 20% until recovery. Markets Traded Commodities: Corn, soybeans, wheat, coffee, cocoa, sugar, cotton, crude oil, heating oil, unleaded gas. Currencies: Swiss franc, Deutschmark, British pound, yen. Bonds: U.S. Treasury bonds, 90-day T-bills. Metals: Gold, silver, copper. Diversification across 20-30 markets ensured uncorrelated trends.
NASDAQ:IBKREducation
by j7892
Don't Confuse "DYOR" with Confirmation Bias in Crypto TradingIn the crypto space, influencers and self-proclaimed crypto gurus constantly tell you to " do your own research " (DYOR) while presenting coins that will supposedly do 100x or become the "next big thing." They always add, " this is not financial advice ," but few actually explain how to do proper research. On top of that, most influencers copy each other, get paid by projects to promote them, and—whether they admit it or not—often contribute to confirmation bias. What is confirmation bias? It’s the psychological tendency to look for information that confirms what we already believe while ignoring evidence that contradicts it. For example, if you want to believe a certain altcoin will 100x, you’ll naturally look for articles, tweets, and videos that say exactly that—while ignoring red flags. How do you distinguish real research from confirmation bias? This article will help you: • Understand confirmation bias and how it affects your investments • Learn how to conduct proper, unbiased research • Discover the best tools and sources for real analysis ________________________________________ What Is Confirmation Bias & How Does It Sabotage Your Investments? Confirmation bias is the tendency to seek, interpret, and remember information that confirms what we already believe—while ignoring evidence to the contrary. In crypto, this leads to: ✔️ Only looking for opinions that confirm a coin is "going to the moon" ✔️ Avoiding critical discussions about the project’s weaknesses ✔️ Believing "everyone" is bullish because you're only consuming pro-coin content The result? • You make emotional investments instead of rational ones • You expose yourself to unnecessary risk • You develop unrealistic expectations and are more vulnerable to FOMO ________________________________________ How to Conduct Proper Research & Avoid Confirmation Bias 1. Verify the Team & Project Fundamentals A solid crypto project must have a transparent, experienced team. Check: • Who are the founders and developers? Are they reputable or anonymous? • Do they have experience? Have they worked on successful projects before? • Is the code open-source? If not, why? • Is there a strong whitepaper? It should clearly explain the problem, the solution, and the technology behind it. Useful tools: 🔹 GitHub – Check development activity 🔹 LinkedIn – Verify the team's background 🔹 CoinMarketCap / CoinGecko – Check market data and tokenomics 2. Analyze Tokenomics & Economic Model A project can have great technology but fail due to bad tokenomics. Key questions to ask: • What’s the maximum supply? A very high supply can limit price growth. • How are the tokens distributed? If the team and early investors hold most of the supply, there’s a risk of dumping. • Are there mechanisms like staking or token burning? These can impact long-term sustainability. Useful tools: 🔹 Token Unlocks – See when tokens will be released into circulation 🔹 Messari – Get detailed tokenomics reports 3. Evaluate the Community Without Being Misled A large, active community can be a good sign, but beware of: • Real engagement vs. bots. A high follower count doesn’t always mean real support. • How does the team respond to tough questions? Avoid projects where criticism is silenced. • Excessive hype? If all discussions are about "Lambo soon" and "to the moon," be cautious. Where to check? 🔹 Twitter (X) – Follow discussions about the project 🔹 Reddit – Read community opinions 🔹 – See how the team handles criticism 4. Verify Partnerships & Investors Many projects exaggerate or fake their partnerships. • Is it listed on major exchanges? Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken are more selective. • Are the investors well-known VCs? Funds like A16z, Sequoia, Pantera Capital don’t invest in just anything. • Do the supposed partners confirm the collaboration? Check their official sites or announcements. Where to verify? 🔹 Crunchbase – Check a project's investors 🔹 Medium – Many projects announce partnerships here 5. Watch the Team's Actions, Not Just Their Words • Have they delivered on promises? Compare the roadmap to actual progress. • What updates have they released? A strong project should have continuous development. • Are they selling their own tokens? If the team is dumping their coins, it’s a bad sign. Useful tools: 🔹 Etherscan / BscScan – Track team transactions 🔹 DefiLlama – Check total value locked (TVL) in DeFi projects ________________________________________ Final Thoughts: DYOR Correctly, Not Emotionally To make smart investments in crypto, you must conduct objective research—not just look for confirmation of what you already believe. ✅ Analyze the team, tokenomics, and partnerships. ✅ Be skeptical of hype and verify all claims. ✅ Use on-chain data, not just opinions. ✅ Don’t let FOMO or emotions drive your decisions. By following these steps, you’ll be ahead of most retail investors who let emotions—not facts—guide their trades. How do you do your own research in crypto? Let me know in the comments!
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Mihai_Iacob
3
5 Most Popular Momentum Indicators to Use in Trading in 20255 Most Popular Momentum Indicators to Use in Trading in 2025 Want to master the art of momentum trading? Look no further. In this FXOpen article, we’ll explore how to use momentum indicators, the signals they generate, and five most popular momentum indicators for trading in 2025. What Is a Momentum Indicator? Momentum in technical analysis refers to the rate at which an asset's price accelerates or decelerates, helping traders identify potential trend continuations or reversals. A momentum indicator is a tool used in technical analysis to measure the speed and strength of an asset’s price movements. By analysing changes in price over a specific period, these indicators provide insights into the underlying force driving market trends. Momentum indicators do not focus on the direction of the price movement itself, but rather the strength behind it. Traders use these tools to gauge whether the market is overbought, oversold, or losing momentum, which helps determine entry or exit points. A stock momentum indicator like the Relative Strength Index (RSI), for instance, may indicate that stocks are currently bought or sold too heavily and their price is due for a reversal. The Significance of Momentum Technical Indicators Momentum indicators do not focus on the direction of the price movement, but rather on the strength behind it. They’re able to quantify and represent hidden clues about the future market direction in an easily interpretable way. By learning to read momentum indicators, traders can develop effective trading strategies, identify potential opportunities, and manage risk more efficiently. Momentum tools produce a range of signals that offer traders an edge over the markets. Let’s take a look at some of the most common momentum signals. Overbought and Oversold Conditions These signals indicate when an asset's price has moved too far in one direction without sufficient support from fundamental or technical factors and is likely to reverse. For example, RSI generates overbought signals when the reading rises above 70 and signals oversold conditions when the reading falls below 30. Divergence Divergence occurs when the price of an asset moves in the opposite direction of the indicator, suggesting an upcoming reversal. For instance, when the price is making higher highs, but RSI is making lower highs, this indicates a bearish divergence that increases the likelihood of a downward move. Crossover These signals are generated when the indicator's lines cross each other or a certain threshold. A common example is the MACD, where traders look for crossovers between the fast MACD line and the slower signal line to spot potential entry and exit points. Top Five List of Momentum Indicators for Technical Analysis Now that we understand the types of signals that momentum tools produce, let’s break down five of the most popular with a momentum indicators list. 1. Relative Strength Index (RSI) The RSI is one of the most popular and well-documented momentum indicators. It measures the speed and change of price movements by comparing the average gain to the average loss over a specified period, usually 14. RSI is an oscillator, moving between 0 and 100. Values above 70 reflect overbought conditions, while values below 30 indicate oversold conditions. When the RSI moves out of overbought or oversold territory, many traders interpret this as a reversal confirmation. Sustained movements above or below the midpoint (50) can also be used to confirm a bullish or bearish trend, respectively. Moreover, traders look for divergence between the RSI and price to identify weakening trends and possible reversals. 2. Average Directional Index (ADX) The ADX is a momentum indicator used to determine a trend’s strength. Unlike most other tools, its reading doesn’t move according to the direction of price action, i.e. it doesn’t move up if bullish or down when bearish. Instead, it ranges from 0 to 100, with values above 25 indicating a strong trend and below 25 suggesting a weak or non-trending market. ADX is commonly used in combination with other tools, as it simply confirms the trendiness of a market. For example, traders might use a leading indicator like RSI to anticipate bullishness and confirm the trend when ADX crosses over 25. 3. Commodity Channel Index (CCI) The CCI is a versatile momentum indicator. It uses a constant in its calculation to ensure that 75% of values fall between +/- 100, with moves outside of the range generally indicating a trend breakout or continuation. It can also show extreme overbought or oversold conditions when its value exceeds +/- 200. The CCI requires a more nuanced approach than other tools and is typically used to confirm a trader’s directional bias and to identify potential opportunities. For instance, a visually identifiable bullish trend can be confirmed by looking at the CCI. If its value is skewed toward 100+, traders can be confident in their observation. When the market cools off, CCI will fall below 100. Traders can then confirm a pullback entry with a move back into the +/- 100 range. 4. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) The MACD is a highly regarded trend-following momentum indicator that shows the relationship between two moving averages of an asset's price. It’s used in technical analysis to identify the relationship between two moving averages of a security’s price. It helps traders understand the trend’s strength, direction, and duration, as well as possible reversal points. Traders use crossovers between the MACD and signal lines as potential entry and exit signals. Additionally, when the MACD histogram crosses above or below the zero line, it can indicate bullish or bearish momentum in the market. Lastly, it’s also possible to spot divergences between price and the indicator’s peaks and troughs, similar to how divergences are identified with RSI. 5. Momentum (Mom) The Momentum indicator is a simple yet potentially effective tool that measures the rate of change in an asset's price over a specific period. The value of the Momentum depends on the market it’s applied to. For example, using the Momentum indicator in stocks will result in a fluctuating value typically between +/- 20, depending on the stock’s price. For forex pairs, its range may look more like +/- 0.02. The common feature across all markets, however, is the zero line. Generally speaking, positive Momentum values indicate upward price movement, while negative values suggest downward movement. It can also show overbought and oversold conditions, but its lack of defined boundaries means this can be tricky. However, Momentum is especially useful for identifying divergences. Advantages of Momentum Indicators Momentum indicators are valuable tools in technical analysis, helping traders assess the strength and speed of price movements. They offer several benefits that enhance trading strategies and decision-making: - Identify Trends Early: Market momentum indicators can reveal the start of a new trend and the end of the old trend, allowing traders to enter trades at opportune moments. - Objective Analysis: They provide quantifiable data, reducing reliance on subjective analysis and emotional decision-making. - Spot Overbought and Oversold Conditions: Momentum tools help traders identify when an asset is overbought or oversold, signalling potential reversals and exit points. - Confirm Trade Signals: Combining momentum indicators with other technical tools enhances the accuracy of trade signals, providing stronger confirmation for trading decisions. - Adaptable Across Markets: They can be applied to various assets, including stocks, forex, and commodities, making them versatile tools for traders. Things to Consider When Trading Momentum Indicators While momentum indicators can be an effective addition to any trader’s arsenal, there are a few things to be aware of: - Trade with the Trend: Trends often last longer than you may think, and constantly looking for trend reversals will only end in frustration. Look for bullish signals during an uptrend and bearish signals in a downtrend. - Use Multiple Indicators: Relying on a single tool can lead to false signals. Many traders combine a lagging indicator, like MACD, with a leading indicator, like RSI. Combining two or three tools can help confirm signals and improve trade accuracy. - Beware of False Signals: Momentum indicators can sometimes generate false signals, especially in sideways or choppy markets. Being patient and waiting for confirmation before entering a trade is vital. - Don’t Rely Too Heavily on Indicators: While momentum indicators can be helpful, relying solely on them without considering price action, market structure, or fundamental aspects can lead to poor trading decisions. Use these indicators alongside other tools for a momentum indicator strategy. Final Thoughts Now that you have a comprehensive overview of momentum indicators and the signals they produce, it’s time to put your knowledge into practice. After experimenting with a few tools and settling on your favourites, you can open an FXOpen account. You’ll be able to trade over 600+ markets with low costs and ultra-fast execution speeds while partnering with one of the world’s fastest-growing forex brokers. Good luck! FAQ How to Use Momentum Indicators? With momentum indicators, traders monitor the rate of price changes to assess whether it is gaining or losing strength. Traders look for overbought or oversold conditions, divergences, and crossovers to determine potential entry and exit points. What Is the Best Period for a Momentum Indicator? If we are talking about the Momentum indicator, the best period depends on your trading style. For short-term traders, 7 and 10 periods are common, while long-term traders may prefer 14 and 21 periods. Testing various periods based on asset volatility can improve results. What Is the Best Momentum Indicator for Scalping? There is no best momentum indicator for scalping but the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is often favoured by scalpers due to its ability to quickly identify overbought or oversold conditions. Its responsiveness helps scalpers make rapid decisions in fast-moving markets. What Is the Difference Between Momentum and Trend Indicators? Momentum trading indicators measure the speed of price changes, while trend indicators assess the direction and persistence of price movements. To put it simply, momentum focuses on strength, while trend indicators focus on the overall direction. Is MACD a Momentum Indicator? Yes, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is one of the most popular momentum indicators, especially in stock trading. It reveals changes in momentum and helps identify potential trend reversals. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
FXOPEN:XAUUSDEducation
by FXOpen
8
Europe - America War, Impact on Forex Hello, my name is Andrea Russo and today I want to talk to you about an important issue that is shaking up the international market: the trade war between the European Union and the United States. Recently, the European Union responded to the duties imposed by the United States on steel and aluminum with countermeasures worth 26 billion euros. In response, US President Donald Trump threatened to impose 200% duties on all wines, champagnes and spirits from France and other countries represented by the EU2. This escalation of trade tensions will certainly have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Let's see together what the consequences could be: Market Volatility: Trade tensions between two of the world's largest economies will increase the volatility of the FOREX market. Investors will seek safe havens, such as the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese Yen (JPY), increasing the demand for these currencies. Euro (EUR) depreciation: The euro could come under downward pressure due to concerns about the economic impact of tariffs on key EU sectors, such as wine. The reduction in exports of wine and other alcoholic products could negatively impact the EU's trade balance. US dollar (USD) appreciation: The dollar could strengthen further, as investors view the US as a safe haven in times of economic uncertainty. However, the increase in tariffs could also lead to higher inflation in the US, complicating the Federal Reserve's decisions regarding interest rates. Impact on the currencies of wine exporting countries: The currencies of major European wine exporters, such as the euro (EUR) and the Swedish krona (SEK), could come under downward pressure due to the decrease in exports to the US. In conclusion, the tariff war between the European Union and the US will have a significant impact on the FOREX market. Investors will need to monitor developments closely and adjust their trading strategies accordingly. Stay tuned for more updates and market analysis! Happy trading to all!
Education
by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP
Learn To Invest: Global Liquidity Index & BitcoinGlobal Liquidity Index & BitCoin: 🚀 Positive Vibes for Your Financial Journey! 🚀 BITSTAMP:BTCUSD Look at this chart! It's the Global Liquidity Index , a measure of how much extra money is flowing through the world's financial systems. Why is this important? Because when this index is high, it often means good things for investments like #Bitcoin! 📈 Think of it like this: when there's more money flowing, people are often more willing to take risks and invest in things like Bitcoin. See those "BullRun" boxes? That means things are looking bright! It's showing that money is flowing, and that's often a good sign for potential Bitcoin growth. 🌟 Even if you're not a pro, it's easy to see the good news here. Understanding these trends can help you make smarter decisions. Let's all aim for growth and success! 💪
BINANCE:BTCUSDEducation
by Navid_Jafarian
11
O kurwa! Curvature in Technical Analysis: What Does It Tell Us?Curvature in TA is trading approach where curved lines are used instead of traditional straight trendlines. Curved lines help to visualize how trends evolve and can provide insights into potential reversals or trend continuations. One of the known methods that utilize curvature is the MIDAS (Market Interpretation/Data Analysis System). This system was developed by physicist Paul Levine in 1995 and uses curved support and resistance lines based on Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP). The curves adapt dynamically as price and volume change, helping to identify trend shifts and potential reversals. 💡 Why should we use Curvature? Dynamic Support and Resistance: Curved lines adapt to price changes, unlike static horizontal lines. Reversal Signals: They can signal potential trend shifts earlier than traditional methods. Better Trend Visualization: They are particularly useful for parabolic or exponential price movements. 📊 Applying Curvature to HBAR (1H TF) There are two curves on my chart. Both of them shows a curvature pattern forming on the 1-hour timeframe. L: The curve on left side indicates a strong downward move, and the price appears to be following this curve closely. R: On the other hand I have drawn curve on the right side, which is alligned as downward curve as well, but it has different angle. This post is meant to test my theory on real life example. 🔑 Key Points: Breaks away from the curvature could indicate a potential trend reversal or consolidation. Combining this analysis with volume and momentum indicators can improve accuracy when predicting possible bounce or breakdown scenarios. Let's see how it works!
Education
by Expate
11