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Learn What Will Make You Profitable in Forex & Gold Trading What brings the consistent profits in trading? Talking to hundreds of struggling traders from different parts of the globe, I realized that there are the common misconceptions concerning that subject. In this educational article, we will discuss what really will make you profitable in trading. Trading Signals 🔔The first thing that 99% of struggling traders are looking for is signals. Why damn learn if you can simply follow the trades of a pro trader and make money?! The truth is, however, is that in order to repeat the performance of a signal provider you have to open all your trading positions in the same exact moment he does. (And I would not even mention the fact that there will be a delay between the moment the provider opens the trade and the moment he sends you the signal) Because the signal can be sent at a random moment, quite often it will take time for you to reach your trading terminal and open the position. Just a 1-minute delay may dramatically change the risk to reward ration of the trade and, hence, the final result. Expert Advisors 🤖The second thing that really attracts the struggling traders is trading robots (EA) . The systems that trade automatically and aimed to generate consistent profits. You simply start the program and wait for the money. The main problem with EA is the fact that it requires constant monitoring . It can stop or freeze in a random moment and may require a reboot. Moreover, due to changing market conditions, the EA should be regularly updated. Without the updates, at some moment it may blow your account. Trading robot is the work : trading with the robots means their constant development, monitoring and improvement. And that work requires a high level of experience: both in coding and in trading. Technical Indicators 📈The third thing that struggling traders are seeking is the "magic" indicator. The one that will accurately identify the safe points to buy and sell. You add the indicator on the chart, and you simply wait for the signal to open the trade. The fact is that magic indicators do not exist. Indicator is the tool that can be applied as the extra confirmation. It should be applied strictly in a combination with something else, and its proper application requires a high level of expertise in trading. Luck in Trading 🍀The fourth thing that newbie traders seek is luck. They open the trade, and then they pray the God, Powell, Fed or someone else to move the market in their favour. And yes, occasionally, luck will be on your side. But relying on luck on a long-term basis, you are doomed to fail. But what will make you profitable then? What is the secret ingredient. Remember, that secret ingredient does not exist. In order to become a consistently profitable traders, you should rely on 4 crucial elements: trading plan, risk management, discipline and correct mindset. 🧠What is correct mindset in trading? It simply means setting REALISTIC goals and having REALISTIC expectations from the market and from your trading. 📝A trading plan is the set of rules and conditions that you apply for the search of a trading setup and the management of the opened position. Trading plan will be considered to be good if it is back tested on historical data and then tested on demo account for at least 3 consequent months. ✔️In order to follow the plan consistently, you need to be disciplined . You should be prepared for losing streaks, and you should be strong enough to not break once your trading account will be in a drawdown. 💰Risk management is one of the most important elements of your trading plan. It defines your risk per trade and your set of actions in case of losses. Even the best trading strategies may fail because of poor risk management. Combining these 4 elements, you will become a consistently profitable trader. Remember, that there is no easy way, no shortcut. Trading is a hard work to be done. ❤️Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by VasilyTrader
9
Understanding Fibonacci In TradingUnlock the secrets of Fibonacci and its powerful applications in trading. Learn how to use Fibonacci tools to identify optimal entry and exit points, manage risk, and refine your trading strategies. While many traders are familiar with basic Fibonacci retracements, this guide will also explore advanced techniques and lesser-known concepts. 📚 The Foundation of Market Geometry 🔢 What is Fibonacci? The Fibonacci sequence is a series where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones: 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34... This mathematical principle, introduced by Leonardo Fibonacci in Liber Abaci (1202), is foundational to nature, architecture, and financial markets. The key ratio derived from this sequence is 1.618, known as the Golden Ratio. ✨ The Golden Ratio and Market Significance The Golden Ratio (1.618) and its inverse (0.618) appear frequently in natural patterns and price movements. In trading, these ratios help determine potential support and resistance levels. Other critical Fibonacci-derived levels include: 0.236 (23.6%) 0.382 (38.2%) 0.5 (50%) (not strictly Fibonacci but widely used) 0.618 (61.8%) 0.786 (78.6%) 📊 How Fibonacci Became a Trading Tool Traders noticed that price movements often respect Fibonacci levels, leading to the creation of Fibonacci-based tools: 📉 Fibonacci Retracement: Identifies potential reversal zones during pullbacks. 📈 Fibonacci Extension: Forecasts potential profit-taking levels. 📐 Fibonacci Arcs, Fans, and Time Zones: Advanced tools for multidimensional analysis. Circles Fans 🛠 Applying Fibonacci in Trading 📍 Step 1: Identifying Swing Highs and Swing Lows Choose a clear trend and mark: Swing High (peak before price declines) Swing Low (trough before price rises) 📏 Step 2: Using Fibonacci Retracement Levels On platforms like TradingView, apply the Fibonacci tool: Uptrend: Draw from Swing Low to Swing High. Downtrend: Draw from Swing High to Swing Low. Key retracement levels act as support or resistance zones. 🚀 Advanced Fibonacci Concepts 🎯 ICT Optimal Trade Entry (OTE) Zone A modern adaptation of Fibonacci, OTE focuses on the 0.618 - 0.786 retracement zone. 📊 Bullish Setup: In an uptrend, the price pulling back into the OTE zone signals a high-probability long entry. 📉 Bearish Setup: In a downtrend, price retracing into the OTE zone suggests a shorting opportunity. 💎 The Golden Pocket The zone between 0.618 - 0.650 is known as the "Golden Pocket." This is a prime area where the price often finds strong support or resistance before continuing its trend. ⏳ Fibonacci Time Zones While most traders focus on price-based Fibonacci levels, Fibonacci Time Zones can predict when significant price movements may occur. These vertical lines are placed at Fibonacci intervals (1, 2, 3, 5, 8...) from a significant market event. 🔄 Fibonacci Confluence When multiple Fibonacci levels align with other indicators (trendlines, moving averages, pivot points), it creates a Fibonacci Confluence Zone, strengthening the probability of a reversal or continuation. 📊 Fibonacci Clusters Traders can plot multiple Fibonacci retracements/extensions on different timeframes. Overlapping levels suggest a high probability reaction zone. 📌 Combining Fibonacci with Other Tools Fibonacci analysis is most effective when combined with: 📉 Candlestick Patterns: Confirmation for reversals or continuations. 📏 Trendlines & Moving Averages: Validate Fibonacci levels. 📊 Volume Analysis: Gauge strength of reactions at Fibonacci levels. 🧠 ICT Strategies: Incorporate Fair Value Gaps, Inversion Fair Value Gaps, Breaker Blocks, and Order Blocks for precision entries. 📍 Practical Applications of Fibonacci ⚡ Scalping: Use Fibonacci on lower timeframes (1m, 5m) to identify intraday opportunities. 📈 Swing Trading: Combine Fibonacci retracements with trend analysis for multi-day trades. 💰 Long-Term Investing: Apply Fibonacci tools on weekly/monthly charts to pinpoint major turning points in the market cycle. 🏆 Key Takeaways Mastering Fibonacci enhances your ability to: Identify optimal entry and exit points. Manage risks with precision. Gain deeper insights into price movements. By integrating Fibonacci with other trading strategies, you can refine your approach and improve decision-making. Start experimenting with Fibonacci tools today on TradingView and elevate your trading strategy!
CME_MINI:ES1!Education
by CandelaCharts
How to determine trend line in trading?Determining a trend line in trading is a fundamental skill used to identify the direction and strength of a price trend. Here's a step-by-step guide to drawing and interpreting trend lines: 1. Understand the Basics of a Trend Line A trend line is a straight line that connects two or more price points on a chart, extending into the future to act as a line of support or resistance. Uptrend Line: Connects higher lows in an upward trend (acts as support). Downtrend Line: Connects lower highs in a downward trend (acts as resistance). Sideways/Ranging Market: Price moves horizontally, and trend lines may not be as effective. 2. Identify Key Price Points For an uptrend, identify at least two higher lows (swing lows) and draw a line connecting them. For a downtrend, identify at least two lower highs (swing highs) and draw a line connecting them. The more times the price touches the trend line without breaking it, the stronger and more valid the trend line is. 3. Draw the Trend Line Use a charting platform to draw the line manually. Connect the swing lows for an uptrend or swing highs for a downtrend. Ensure the line is not too steep or too flat; it should reflect the natural slope of the price movement. 4. Validate the Trend Line A valid trend line should be touched by price at least three times. The more touches, the more reliable the trend line. If the price breaks the trend line significantly, it may indicate a potential trend reversal or weakening of the current trend. 5. Use Trend Lines for Analysis Support/Resistance: In an uptrend, the trend line acts as support. In a downtrend, it acts as resistance. Breakouts: A break below an uptrend line or above a downtrend line may signal a trend reversal or continuation, depending on the context. Trend Strength: A steep trend line may indicate a strong trend, while a shallow one may suggest a weaker trend. 6. Combine with Other Tools Use trend lines in conjunction with other technical indicators (e.g., moving averages, RSI, MACD) to confirm trends and potential entry/exit points. Look for volume confirmation: Increased volume during a breakout or bounce off the trend line adds validity to the signal. 7. Adjust as Needed Trend lines are not static. As new price data comes in, you may need to redraw or adjust the trend line to reflect the current market conditions. Example: BTC has touched the line that I've drawn multiple time so It is a reliable Bullish Trend line. The next Possible connection can be around 93.5k! the line also acts as a support. By mastering trend lines, you can better identify potential trading opportunities and manage risk effectively. Always practice on historical data and use proper risk management techniques.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by CRYPTONIC_trend
Let's speak about savings...Hey guys, As I've lately taken great interest in publishing my trading ideas here on TradingView, I want to speak about something that rarely if ever gets spoken about in the trading community, by trading community I mean us goobers on charts who do intra-day, swing, day trading etc... who get sad for not making 10% a month on forex etc... That is your savings, specifically investing your savings on a long term basis and compound the interest earned by the dividend yields. Useless to say that I'll be speaking about the S&P 500 and how you can approach it too. First of all, you can't directly buy the S&P500 that you see here on trading view, as this is an index and in order for you to invest in the performance of the index you need to buy into ETFs, mutual funds, or derivatives like options and futures that are designed to track it. There are many big funds around, like iShares, Fidelity, Vanguard, Amundi etc... To be honest the one I personally invest into is the Core S&P 500 USD Acc from iShares that auto compounds the dividends but you really can choose between tens of funds. The key factors that you must keep into consideration when choosing a fund are these: - Currency of the fund (what currency is the fund based on)= if it is another country's currency, you'll have to exchange it every time you want to make an entry, amounting to extra commissions and fees that aren't sexy. - Dividends= if the fund pays out dividends, if it pays it in cash or shares or if it self reinvests them or it doesn't... - Tax residency of the fund (on which exchange is the Fund/ETF listed on)= important as when it will come to pay your taxes, some funds may have extra taxes due to the residency/exchange. Now... let's get to the sauce, you have probably heard about DCA (Dollar Cost Average) as it's been rubbed on your face by everyone who never looked at a chart, and that's a valid approach if you are 50, but we spend half of our days on the charts so we want to work based on charts and price, not on time. My philosophy behind this is that, if our goal is maximizing profit while spreading entries evenly, we should aim to get the best entries, and how could time, which has nothing to do with price, dictate our entries? It is quite literally putting your finger down randomly on the chart and choosing to enter there. There is a way easier and more effective approach, and that's basing yourself on price by simply buying the dip. Yes, I quite literally wrote all of this article just to tell you to buy the dips, but here's a little practical example on why buying the dip performs better than DCA and what values you could look for yourself to try to optimize your entries. The most basic approach to DCA is to buy a set amount each month, for the sake of the example let's say you would have bought $1000 worth of shares every 30 days starting from Feb/2022, your entries would have been spread out randomly and you would end up with roughly $42.000 today, which would be more if you reinvested all the dividends and profits. A better approach would be buying each time there is a dip of X percentage in price. If during the same time we would have bought about 200$ every time price dipped 1.25% we would have made 192 entries and made around $51.000 without compounding interest and dividends, then that would be closer to 55.000 - 60.000. All of this just by basing ourself on price and not time. You wouldn't evaluate taste with sounds, or sounds with numbers... so why evaluate numbers with time? Rather stick to what the chart itself does and get the best spread out entries possible, like this not only you would make more money, but have way more entries spread out through the chart for about the same initial capital, which is not bad when you are planning to long term invest. To wrap it up, my practical example is buying the S&P500 (or another index you like), every time price drops of 1.25% - 1.75% in a single day, and compound interest every time you get a entry. Like this you'll set yourself an long term investment fund that will grow exponentially through the years and help you more than save your money through the years. As as we all know but not admit that spending comes easy when money is laying around, so stash the unnecessary and see it grow ;) the numbers in the example are rough estimates but give the actual idea of performance, and excuse me for the simplicity of the argument but it always comes handy
SP:SPXEducation
by BancoMatt
Trade Management Strategy Testing Dow JonesI will be trying out a new holding style for my trades going forward based on my journal and statistics. Instead of having a fixed target, I will instead hold my trades all the way until 04:00pm market close. Pros: Letting trades run. I don't know how far a trade will go. By not having a strict target, I can lock in those big running days. Not stressing over if it will hit target. By not having a strict target, I can just let price do what it is going to do and close my day trades at 04:00pm. I don't have to worry about if it is only 10 ticks away from my target. Allows me more freedom to use my time elsewhere. By not having a strict target, I know all my day trades will be closed by 04:00pm. I will set an alarm 5 minutes before 4 to close any open positions. I can then use my time more productively instead of being at the screen. Cons: Giving back profits. I know by not having a strict target that I can be up a certain percent and by the end of day close, any/all profits can be gone and or stopped out. Can have a lot of small wins/losses and Breakevens mixed with the occasional stop out and giant win. Since I have no target, I have no control over how much profit I may make in a given day. Someone with a fixed target knows they are getting out at 2:1 for example. Below is an exact trade I have taken using strict target of 200 ticks. Using End of Day Hold the trade would look like this 200 ticks vs 553 ticks This is just one example, and my journal shows countless more just like this. If anybody has any thoughts or experience with this holding style, I would love to hear feedback.
CBOT_MINI:YM1!Education
by Dow_Jones_Maestro
Should traditional crypto traders quit manual trading?Have you ever experienced FOMO buying or panic selling? I believe most human traders have, to some extent. Should traditional crypto traders quit manual trading? For most, the answer is yes. This is especially true for those using high leverage (e.g., 100x). There are countless stories of traders turning capital into 100-fold gains within a month, only to be liquidated on a single trade they were overly confident about, leading to bankruptcy. In the Forex market, non-professionals trade out of necessity—whether for travel or business. These participants are indifferent to small price fluctuations, creating profit opportunities for traders. However, in the crypto market, newbies are often the lambs led to slaughter. Most newcomers lose their funds and quit within a month. As a result, crypto trading has become a zero-sum game between human traders, quant traders, AI traders, and long-term investors. The biggest weaknesses of manual trading are emotional control and inconsistent risk management. In the long run, human traders simply don’t have the statistical edge. As an alternative, becoming a successful quant trader is possible—but it requires extra effort, big capital, and luck. The competition is tough as well. Tradingview provides fantastic tools for this purpose.
Education
by go8686
2
HOW-TO Swing Trade SolanaI take a much more conservative approach to trading - that's how the JSC - Swing Long is used. It simply finds extremely oversold moments (on larger time frames) and reaps the rewards. The strategy tester shows 82% win rate using this indicator, with an average 22.5% trade. As of now, it's VERY close to triggering the BUY alert, but I can't be too hasty because of this bearish momentum we are seeing. I am able to set alerts for this indicator, so as of now, I will wait for the BUY alert. I designed it specifically for my students, especially beginners, to have confidence in their next trade. SOL blockchain is the KING of meme coins - that's the main reason it gained so much value in this bull run. In order to buy meme coins, you had to buy Solana first, then swap it. Keep it simple and have confidence in your next trade. -JumpStartCrypto
BINANCE:SOLUSDEducation
by JumpStartCrypto
5
Mastering Bitcoin #1In this quick but educational video we delve into the intricacies of Bitcoin's price movements using popular technical analysis tools like Bollinger Bands, Elliott Wave Theory, Triple Moving Average, and Bearish Divergence on MACD and RSI. Learn how these few indicators can help predict what might be ahead for Bitcoin based on current data. I'm gonna make this into a habit, creating short, educational videos, so expect more of this insightful, bite-sized content going forward.
Education
by Candle_Styx
Gann Time Cycles Price Synchronization | Gann’s Timing StrategyGann Time Cycles | Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method In this video, we dive deep into the Gann Time-Price Synchronization Method, a powerful approach to market analysis that combines impulse moves, time cycles, and squared price levels. Learn how aligning price action with time-based cycles can help you identify high-probability trade setups and significantly improve your trading accuracy. Key Points Covered: - How to use Gann time cycles and price levels to anticipate market reactions. - Step-by-step guide to entry criteria, stop-loss placement, and take-profit strategy. - Practical application of the Gann method across Forex, stocks, and commodities. - Enhancing trade confidence with market confirmation tools like candlestick patterns, RSI, and volume. - Whether you’re a beginner or an experienced trader, this method will help you make more informed and confident trading decisions. Trading Steps Overview- Gann Time Cycles | Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method. 1. Identify the Initial Impulse Move - Find the first strong price movement. 2. Identify Key Time Cycles - Use 144, 225, 52, 90, and 26-bar cycles. 3. Apply Price Squaring & Vibrations - Calculate squared price levels. 4. Look for Market Confirmation Confirm entries with price action and indicators. 📌 Timestamps: Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles 00:00 ▶️Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method - Introduction. 00:40 ▶️ Risk Disclaimer. 01:00 ▶️ What is the Gann Time-Price Synchronization Method. 02:18 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method - Core Principle. 02:52 ▶️ Step 1 - Identify the Initial Impulse Move 03:18 ▶️ Step 2 - Identify Key Gann Time Cycles. 03:50 ▶️ Step 3 - Apply Gann Price Squaring & Gann law of Vibrations. 04:10 ▶️ Step 4 - Look for Market Confirmation. 04:29 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles- Example. 10:49 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles- Trading Rules & Execution. 11:30 ▶️ Gann's Time Price Synchronization Method | Gann Time Cycles - Conclusion & Final Thoughts.
Education
by GannAstroTrader
No More Noise:Focus on Your Decisions to Enhance Trading SuccessImagine sailing through stormy seas, surrounded by countless navigational tools, each offering conflicting directions. This metaphor vividly captures the reality faced by many traders in today's frenetic market landscape, where information overload can easily drown out clarity and sound judgment. The incessant barrage of real-time news, technical charts, and market statistics creates a chaotic environment that can overwhelm even the most seasoned professionals. Moreover, in a society dominated by social media, we find ourselves perpetually distracted, disconnected from our goals, and conflicted in our decision-making. Each day, our smartphones inundate us with notifications that contribute to the noise of daily life, making it increasingly difficult to remain focused on our plans and decisions. The Challenge of Information Overload in Trading In the trading realm, information overload is a relentless opponent. It refers to a condition in which an excessive amount of data obscures judgment and hampers effective decision-making. The stakes are high, with fastest-moving markets generating streams of news, charts, algorithmic signals, and social media updates, all competing for our attention. Rather than fostering clarity, this avalanche of data can paralyze traders, leading them to either over-analyze situations or act impulsively. Understanding information overload's implications and developing strategies to combat it is vital for anyone seeking to optimize their trading performance. The ability to filter through the chaos and focus on actionable insights can set one up for success in volatile markets. The Psychological Toll of Information Overload The psychological burden of information overload can deeply affect traders, producing an array of negative emotional responses such as stress, fatigue, and anxiety. The constant flood of data can lead to analysis paralysis, a state where the trader struggles to make decisions due to overwhelming choices. This can manifest in two harmful ways: decision fatigue—which leads to hasty, unconsidered actions—and excessive deliberation, causing missed opportunities. Traders grappling with this cognitive overload may encounter heightened anxiety and impaired judgment, making them susceptible to emotional decisions driven by fear or greed. Studies indicate that elevated levels of stress disrupt logical thinking, further complicating the decision-making process. Addressing this psychological challenge requires a disciplined approach to manage data overload. Implementing strategies to filter out noise and prioritize essential information can significantly enhance decision-making capabilities and lead to more consistent trading results. Poor Trading Decisions Fueled by Information Overload The impact of information overload on trading decisions can lead to costly mistakes. When inundated with signals from charts, news feeds, and market alerts, traders risk overtrading, misinterpreting trends, and hesitating on vital opportunities. Overtrading often occurs when traders react to minor price fluctuations or conflicting indicators without a clear strategy. This can result in excessive transaction costs and diminished returns. Conversely, misinterpretation of trends can happen when traders focus on irrelevant metrics, leading them to ignore critical data points that influence market movements. Research indicates that traders exposed to data overload miss trading opportunities 30% more frequently. To combat these pitfalls, traders must streamline their processes and focus on high-value information, enhancing their readiness to make informed, timely decisions. Strategies to Manage Information Overload in Trading Effectively managing information overload is crucial for traders seeking sound decision-making and profitability. Here are several strategies designed to curb data noise and allow traders to concentrate on actionable insights: 1. Narrow Your Data Sources Identify and focus on a few essential data sources that directly impact your strategy. Instead of attempting to absorb every market update, prioritize key indicators that are relevant to your trades, such as: - Economic calendars and central bank announcements for forex traders. - Earnings reports and sector-specific news for stock traders. By narrowing your focus, you can minimize distractions and optimize your analysis. 2. Utilize Automation and Filters Automation tools are invaluable for simplifying the trading process. Alerts, AI-driven analyses, and algorithmic scanners can filter out extraneous information, ensuring you only see insights pertinent to your strategy. Automation allows you to allocate mental resources to the analysis that matters most. 3. Leverage Trading Dashboards Customizable trading dashboards consolidate vital data points—charts, news updates, and metrics—into a single interface. This significantly enhances efficiency and reduces the need to switch between screens, allowing traders to hone in on the information that truly matters. 4. Employ News Aggregators Tools like Bloomberg and Reuters can help traders prioritize high-impact news updates by curating content that aligns with their focus. The result is a streamlined approach to news that presents only relevant information, reducing confusion during trading hours. 5. Use Economic Calendars Economic calendars track significant market-moving events, enabling traders to prepare for volatility. By filtering events based on their relevance, such as high-impact announcements for specific currency pairs, traders can better anticipate market shifts without unnecessary distractions. 6. Implement Sentiment Analysis Tools Market sentiment can provide critical context for trading decisions. Tools that analyze sentiment from various sources can help traders gauge market mood, guiding decisions during turbulent periods. Balancing Data and Intuition in Trading While data-driven analysis is fundamental to trading success, intuition—gained through experience—also plays a crucial role. Finding the right balance between data and gut instinct can lead to more effective decision-making. Data serves as a reliable starting point, offering insights into patterns and trends. However, an overemphasis on data can create paralysis, particularly in uncertain situations. Developing a nuanced understanding of market behavior through experience can complement data-driven analysis, allowing traders to make informed decisions during times of volatility. How to Achieve Balance - Use data to identify trade opportunities but trust your intuition regarding the level of investment. - When faced with conflicting indicators, lean on experience to interpret market sentiment rather than relying solely on algorithms. This harmonious relationship between data and intuition not only improves decision-making but also helps build the confidence necessary to navigate complex markets. Read also: And... Conclusion In an era characterized by rampant information overload, particularly in trading, maintaining focus is more critical than ever. Our connected world, fueled by notifications and social media distractions, mirrors the chaotic nature of trading—demanding that we cut through the noise to concentrate on what matters most. By implementing targeted strategies to filter extraneous information and honing the balance between data and intuition, traders can enhance their decision-making processes. Ultimately, success in trading requires both clarity and discipline—two critical components that allow traders to thrive amidst the tumultuous tides of the market. ✅ Please share your thoughts about this article in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my post. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
FX:XAUUSDEducation
by FOREXN1
1
How Does a Carry Trade Work? How Does a Carry Trade Work? A carry trade is a popular forex trading strategy that takes advantage of interest rate differentials between two currencies, aiming to earn returns from the interest gap. This article explores what a carry trade is, its formula, and how the strategy works, helping traders understand its potential advantages and risks. Carry Trade: Definition A carry trade is a popular forex strategy where traders take advantage of the difference in interest rates between two currencies. It involves borrowing money in a currency with a low borrowing cost—this is known as the "funding currency"—and then converting that borrowed amount into another offering higher interest, called the "investment currency." This is done to earn the interest rate differential between the two. The Mechanics of a Forex Carry Trade A carry position involves a few key components that work together to create potential opportunities in the forex market. 1. The Funding Currency The first component is the currency that the trader borrows, the funding currency. Traders typically choose one with low interest costs because the amount to repay will be minimal. Common funding currencies include the Japanese yen (JPY) or the Swiss franc (CHF), as these often have low or even negative borrowing costs. 2. The Investment Currency The second component is the investment currency, which is the one into which the borrowed funds are converted. This is chosen because it offers a higher interest yield, providing an opportunity to earn returns from the interest rate differential. Popular investment currencies often include the Australian dollar (AUD) or the New Zealand dollar (NZD), as they tend to have higher borrowing costs. However, in recent years, emerging market currencies, like the Mexican peso (MXN), Brazilian real (BRL), and South African rand (ZAR), have also been favoured due to their high interest yields. 3. Interest Rate Differential The core concept here is to capitalise on the interest rate differential between the funding and investment currency. If someone borrows in a currency with a 0.5% premium and invests in another offering a 4% yield, the differential (known as the "carry") is 3.5%. This differential represents the potential return, assuming there are no significant changes in the exchange rate. 4. Swaps and Rollovers Swaps and rollovers are key factors. When you hold a position overnight (roll it over), the difference in interest rates between the two currencies is either credited or debited to your account. This is because when you trade a forex pair, you're effectively borrowing one currency to buy another. The swap rate compensates for the interest rate difference. Positive Swap Rate: If the interest rate of the currency you are buying is higher than that you are selling, you might receive a positive swap rate, meaning you earn interest. Negative Swap Rate: Conversely, if the interest rate of the currency you're selling is higher than the one you're buying, you'll pay interest, leading to a negative swap rate. 5. Leverage Many traders use leverage to amplify their positions. Leverage allows them to borrow additional funds to expand the size of their investment. While this can potentially increase returns, it also magnifies risks. If the position moves against the trader, losses can quickly accumulate due to the leverage. 6. Market Fluctuations The price of the pair is a crucial factor in the yield of the differential. While the differential offers the potential for returns, any adverse price movement can negate these gains. For instance, if the investment currency depreciates relative to the funding currency, the trader could face losses when converting back to the funding currency. Conversely, if the investment currency appreciates relative to the funding currency, then they can potentially make an additional gain on top of their interest yield. 7. Transaction Fees and Spreads Traders must consider transaction fees and spreads, which are the differences between the buying and selling prices of a forex pair. These costs can reduce the overall gains of the operation. Wider spreads, particularly in less liquid forex pairs, can increase the cost of entering and exiting positions. In a carry position, these components interact continuously. A trader borrows in a low-interest-rate currency, converts the funds to a higher-yielding one, and aims to earn from the differential while carefully monitoring market movements, transaction costs, and swap rates. The overall approach is based on balancing the interest earned, fees, and potential pair’s price movements. Carry Trade: Formula and Example To calculate the potential return of a carry trade, traders use a basic formula: - Potential Return = (Investment Amount * Interest Rate Differential) * Leverage Let’s examine a carry trade example. Imagine someone borrows 10,000,000 Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate of 0.5% and uses these funds to invest in Australian dollars (AUD), which has a higher borrowing cost of 4.5%. The differential is 4% (4.5% - 0.5%). If the current exchange rate is 1 AUD = 80 JPY, converting 10,000,000 JPY results in 125,000 AUD (10,000,000 JPY / 80). They then use the 125,000 AUD to earn 4.5% interest annually: - 125,000 * 4.5% = 5,625 AUD The cost of borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.5% interest is: - 10,000,000 * 0.5% = 50,000 JPY Converted back to AUD at the original exchange price (1 AUD = 80 JPY), the interest cost is: - 50,000 JPY / 80= 625 AUD The net return is the interest earned minus the borrowing cost (for simplicity, we’ll exclude other transaction fees): - 5,625 AUD − 625 AUD = 5,000 AUD If the price changes, it can significantly impact the position’s outcome. For example, if the AUD appreciates against the JPY, moving from 80 to 85 JPY per AUD, the 125,000 AUD would now be worth 10,625,000 JPY (125,000 * 85). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader receives additional returns. Conversely, if the AUD depreciates to 75 JPY per AUD, the value of 125,000 AUD drops to 9,375,000 JPY (125,000 * 75). After repaying the 10,000,000 JPY loan, the trader faces a loss. Types of Carry Trades: Positive and Negative Trades with yield differential can be classified into two types: positive and negative, each defined by the differential between the funding and investment currencies. Positive Carry Trade A positive carry trade occurs when the borrowing rate on the investment currency is higher than that of the funding one. For example, if a trader borrows in Japanese yen (JPY) at 0.5% and invests in Australian dollars (AUD) at 4.5%, the differential is 4%. This differential means they earn more interest on the invested currency than they pay on the borrowed one, potentially resulting in a net gain, especially if market movements are favourable. Negative Carry Trade A negative carry trade happens when the yield on the funding currency is higher than that on the investment. In this case, the trader would lose money on the rate differential. For example, borrowing in US dollars at 2% to invest in euros at 1% would result in a negative carry of -1%. Traders might still pursue negative yield differential trades to hedge other positions or take advantage of expected market movements, but the strategy involves more risk. How Can You Analyse Carry Trade Opportunities? To analyse opportunities, traders focus on several key factors to determine whether a carry position could be effective. 1. Differentials The primary factor here is the interest rate differential between the two currencies. Traders look for forex pairs where the investment currency offers a significantly higher interest return than the funding currency. This differential provides the potential returns from holding the position over time. 2. Economic Indicators Traders monitor economic indicators such as inflation rates, GDP growth, and employment figures, as these can influence central banks' decisions on interest rates. A strong economy may lead to higher borrowing costs, making a pair more attractive for a yield differential position. Conversely, weak economic data could result in rate cuts, reducing the appeal of a currency. 3. Central Bank Policies Understanding central bank policies is crucial. Traders analyse statements from central banks, like the Federal Reserve or the Bank of Japan, to gauge future rate changes. If a central bank hints at raising borrowing costs, it could present an opportunity for a positive carry transaction. 4. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite This type of transaction often performs well in low-volatility environments. Traders assess market sentiment and risk appetite by analysing geopolitical events, market trends, and investor behaviour. Risks of a Carry Trade While carry trading can offer potential returns from borrowing cost differentials, they also come with significant risks that traders must consider. - Exchange Risk: If the investment currency depreciates against the funding one, it can wipe out the returns from the differential and result in losses. - Interest Rate Risk: Changes in the cost of borrowing by central banks can alter the differential, reducing potential returns or even creating a negative carry situation. - Leverage Risk: Many traders use leverage to amplify returns, but this also magnifies potential losses. A small adverse movement in pairs can push the trader out of the market. - Liquidity Risk: During periods of low market liquidity, exiting a position may become difficult or more costly, increasing the risk of loss. A Key Risk: Carry Trade Unwinding Unwinding happens when traders begin to exit their positions en masse, often due to changes in market conditions, such as increased volatility or a shift in risk sentiment. This essentially means exiting the investment and repurchasing the original currency. Unwinding can trigger rapid and significant price movements, particularly if many traders are involved, and lead to a much lower return if the exit is timed incorrectly. For example, if global markets face uncertainty or economic data points to a weakening economy, investors may seek so-called safer assets, leading to a swift exit from carry positions and a steep decline in the investment currency. The Bottom Line This type of strategy offers a way to take advantage of interest rate differentials between currencies, but it comes with its own set of risks. Understanding the mechanics and analysing opportunities is critical. Ready to explore yield differential trades in the forex market? Open an FXOpen account today to access advanced tools, low-cost trading, and more than 600 markets. Good luck! FAQ What Is a Carry Trade? A carry trade in forex meaning refers to a strategy where traders borrow in a low-interest currency (the "funding currency") and invest in a higher-interest one (the "investment currency") to earn returns from the differential. What Is the Carry Trade Strategy? The carry trade strategy consists of borrowing funds in a currency with a low interest rate and using those funds to invest in a currency that offers a higher interest rate. Traders then invest the borrowed funds in the higher-yielding one to earn returns from the borrowing cost differential. The strategy typically relies on both relatively stable forex prices and the interest differential remaining favourable. How Does the Japanese Carry Trade Work? The Japanese currency carry trade typically involves borrowing the Japanese yen (JPY) at a low interest rate and converting it into another with a higher yield, like the Australian dollar (AUD). The aim is to take advantage of the gap in borrowing costs. What Is an Example of a Yen Carry Trade? An example of a yen carry position is borrowing 10,000,000 JPY at 0.10% interest and converting it to AUD, which earns 4.35%. The trader takes advantage of the 4.25% differential, assuming favourable market conditions. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
4
PLR (Path of Least Resistance) Strategy Explanation - $SHOPHi guys this is a follow up to a post I have just published about my trading idea on shorting NYSE:SHOP , It really doesn't matter if you want to short the market or long the market as it works either way, but for the sake of the example I'll take a 6 months period from the Shopify chart following earnings to better explain you my strategy... This right here is the NYSE:SHOP chart from approx. Jan/2024 to end of Aug/2024, 2 Earnings have been announced, both having great positive surprises, but regardless of the positive surprise (typically bullish indicator), the stock fell of 45%+. Let's add the earnings dates to the chart so that you can better visualize them: What you care about in this image is the earnings dates lined out, as you can see the surprise was positive yet both fell more than 10% in just a day, that I will take as the upcoming trend for at least the time being, till the next earning is announced (so, if for example the 13/Feb earning ended up being bearish, my overview on the market till at least the next earning on 8/May, will be bearish, so all of the trades I will take will be shorts). Now I will line out the trend and the BoSs (breaks of structure) just to better visualize the trend: As you can see the Earning date candles signed the beginning of a down trend twice, pre-announced by the Earning candle itself. The entry strategy is now simple, the idea behind it is to "follow the path of least resistance".. by that I mean that, if your bias is bullish, who enter on candles that are of the opposite direction to the one you are heading to? - Sure you might say that it is to get better entries as ofc, on a short bias, higher sale points = better profits, but the goal here is not maximizing profits, but raising the odds exponentially so that you can take surer trades. I've tested this strategy from Feb/2021 and so far the win rate is 95.6% (123 out of 136 trades profited . The way the entries are spread is this: Basically every time a bearish candle - that closes lower than the previous bearish candle did - is created, a short position of 1% of total equity is generated. The period begins from the beginning of the current earnings season, and closes the day before the next earnings season as it works within a 3 months frame. Each entry HAS to be the lowest bearish candle of the period, example: Only these candles marked in blue count as entries for short positions as their close is lower of more than 0.5% than the previous one, The pink ones are higher than the lowest up to that point, so they do not count as entries as they are technically part of a pullback that is moving in the opposite direction where you are heading. So, going back to the entries, we enter on the close of the lowest bearish candle close up to that point. For safety, we trail the stop loss to the previous high, this is where well defined trend lines come handy: The thick black line is the trend line, and as new lows are broken, I mark those as BoS (break of structure) and until a new one is created, the SL will go to the previous high, and so it goes. (viceversa for buys). We then proceed to target the FVGs left behind by previous quarters: As you can see there are massive gaps in the chart that we will target and identify as FVGs (Fair Value Gaps) and set the TP at the close (lowest point) of the fair value gap. Now comes in your exit strategy... There really are 3 ways that you can tackle this: 1- You set up TP to the lowest FVG of the series (if there are multiple like in this case) 2- You set up TP to the first FVG still open during the quarter following the Earnings Period 3- You tackle both TPs and take each FVG as a partial close to the position (example: if there are 2 FVGs you take out 50% of the position on the first and 50% on the last). But what to do if your positions didn't reach TP (FVG close) before the next Earning or there is no FVG to begin with??? - In the case the TP you have marked out at the close of the FVG didn't reach, you'll proceed to close the position 1 day before the next Earnings is coming, unless your conviction that the FVG will fill in is so high, then you can let those run at your own risk: - In the case in which a FVG is not present then you'll target the previous High (in case of a buy) or Low (in case of a sell) as your TP, utilize the previous low (in case of buy) or previous high (in case of sell) as SL and just let it run: as you can see the 4 trades were all profitable, made little money but sure money in just 15 days Unless I forget anything, this right here, is my strategy. Simple, straight forward, high success rate and doesn't leave anything up to the case. If you have any questions PLEASE leave a comment below and I'll do my best to reply in time ;)
SEducation
by BancoMatt
1
How to Know When Alt-Season Is Here?Hello, Traders! If you've been in crypto long enough, you’ve probably heard the term alt-season — that exciting period when altcoins significantly outperform Bitcoin (BTC), and the market sees massive rallies across smaller assets. But how do you know when an alt-season is about to begin? There are key alt-season indicators that traders watch to spot opportunities before the big moves happen. Let’s break down what alt-season is, how to identify it, and what signs indicate that a market-wide altcoin rally is about to start. 👇🏻 What Is Alt-Season? Alt-season, short for altcoin season, is a market cycle when altcoins (any cryptocurrency that isn’t Bitcoin) outperform Bitcoin and experience rapid price increases. During alt-season, traders shift their focus from Bitcoin to altcoins, leading to: Higher Altcoin Dominance. Increased Liquidity in Smaller-Cap Coins. Massive Rallies in Speculative Assets. Alt-season doesn’t happen randomly; it follows specific market conditions and signals that traders can identify early. Key Indicators That Alt-Season Is Coming 1. Bitcoin Dominance Declines One of the strongest alt-season indicators is the Bitcoin Dominance Index (BTC.D). This metric measures Bitcoin’s market cap relative to the entire crypto market. When bitcoin dominance falls, it signals that traders are moving capital into altcoins. If BTC dominance breaks a long-term support level, it often marks the beginning of alt-season. 2. Ethereum Outperforms Bitcoin Ethereum (ETH) is the largest altcoin, and its performance typically sets the tone for the broader altcoin market. If ETH/BTC starts trending upward, it’s a strong sign that alt-season could be near. Ethereum often leads the first wave of altcoin breakouts, followed by mid-cap and low-cap coins. 3. Altcoin Market Cap Growth Tracking altcoins' total market cap (MCAP) (excluding Bitcoin) can indicate early alt-season signals. When the altcoin market cap increases while Bitcoin remains stable or declines, it shows capital rotation into altcoins. A sudden spike in the altcoin market cap, especially with volume, indicates growing investor interest. 4. Surge in Crypto Airdrops and ICOs New projects launch aggressively during alt-season, and crypto airdrops become more frequent. If you start seeing airdrop crypto promotions everywhere, it may be a sign that the market is heating up. Many traders hunt for free airdrop crypto opportunities during alt-seasons to get early exposure to new tokens. 5. Social Media and Retail Hype Increases Retail traders often drive the biggest altcoin rallies. Some signs that alt-season is underway: Crypto influencers and X (formerly known as Twitter) threads constantly mention that “alt-season is here.” Crypto airdrops are a trend on social media, with traders looking for ways to get airdrop crypto opportunities. Telegram and Discord groups have become highly active, discussing the “next 100x altcoins.” Final Thoughts The alt-season is one of the most exciting periods in crypto trading. Recognizing the right alt-season indicators can help you enter early, ride the trend, and exit before the hype fades. So, traders, do you think we’re nearing the next alt-season? What’s your go-to strategy during altcoin rallies? Let’s discuss this in the comments!
Education
by WhiteBIT
Are You a Technical or Fundamental Trader? (And Why It Matters)Financial markets are a battleground of opposing forces: buyers vs. sellers, bulls vs. bears, diamond hands vs. paper hands. But one of the oldest rivalries in trading doesn’t involve price movements at all — it’s the ongoing feud between technical and fundamental traders. One side believes the charts hold all the secrets (you, maybe?), while the other insists that cold, hard data dictates market direction (you, maybe?). In this Idea, we break down the two and ask: which side are you on? 📈 The Chartists: The Lost Art of Tape Reading Technical traders are the wizards of the candlestick, seeing patterns where others see chaos. To them, a moving average isn’t just a squiggly line — it’s guidance. Fibonacci levels ? More sacred than grandma’s secret pie recipe. They don’t care if a company just launched the greatest product of the century — if the RSI says it’s overbought, they’re out. Technical analysis thrives on one simple principle: price action reflects all available information and hints at the next possible move. Instead of diving into earnings reports or economic data — the fundamental traders’ bread and butter — technical traders study past price movements, volume, and momentum indicators to predict the next leg up or down. They’re the ones glued to their TradingView charts, eyes darting between support and resistance levels, waiting for the perfect breakout. 💸 The Fundamentalists: Betting on Real-World Events Fundamental traders scoff at the idea that lines on a chart can predict the future. Instead, they dig into earnings reports , economic calendars , and all sorts of reports and data. They believe markets, like everything else in life, move based on value, supply and demand, and macroeconomic forces—not just on price action. To them, a stock isn’t just a ticker symbol; it’s a business with revenues, expenses, and growth prospects. If they’re trading forex , they’re looking at interest rates USINTR and inflation reports USCPI , not head-and-shoulders patterns. The goal? To determine an asset’s intrinsic value and bet on it going up or down, ideally running ahead of the pack. If a company’s earnings are strong, like Spotify’s SPOT latest earnings figures , they buy—regardless of what a stochastic oscillator says. And vice versa, if a company’s earnings are weak, like Google parent Alphabet’s GOOGL latest showing , they sell. 👉👈 Who’s Right? Both, depending on who you ask. Technical traders argue that prices move in patterns, and those patterns repeat. Fundamental traders counter that real-world events drive prices, and charts are just a delayed reflection of reality. The truth may actually be somewhere in the middle — markets are a mix of both. Even the most die-hard fundamentalist will glance at a chart before making a trade, and many technical traders keep an eye on economic calendars to avoid being blindsided by major news. 💡 Why It Matters Your trading style affects everything: the markets you trade, the tools you use, and even your level of stress. If you’re a fundamentals-first trader trying to scalp five-minute charts, you’re in a world of pain. Conversely, if you’re a technical trader attempting to hold trades for years without considering financial data, you might miss obvious warning signs. Understanding your own tendencies can help refine your strategy and improve your results. Are you more comfortable crunching numbers and reading financial statements? You might be in the same boat with other cash-flow guys like Warren Buffett and Ray Dalio. Do you prefer spotting patterns and reacting to price action? Say hello to your billionaire buddies Paul Tudor Jones and Stanley Druckenmiller. 💚 Final Thoughts Bottom line, trading isn’t about proving one method superior — it’s about making the right decisions, and, let’s be frank, turning a profit. Whether you’re a chart junkie or an earnings aficionado, what matters most is having a strategy that works for you. So now the big question… which side are you on? Fundamental analysis or technical analysis? Comment below and let’s see who’s who!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDEducation
by TradingView
33
Marking MC, and Signal BarTo mark the Master Candle (MC), wait for the price to cross and close 7EMA. Then look to the left of the candle that crossed and closed it. In most cases, the MC is directly in front of this candle. As it's shown in the chart, Candle X has crossed and closed 7EMA. So, candle Y is the MC. Bullish Signal Bar: a green Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's upper shadow. Bearish Signal Bar: a red Pinbar which has no or is smaller than the body's lower shadow. Note 1: Signal Bar can be spotted via Candlestick Math too. This means we consider the opening price of the first and the closing price of the last candle. If these candles add to a valid Signal Bar, we consider it as a signal to go in trade. Note 2: the only situations that Signal Bar is valid: For trading in the opposite direction of the trend, we should be in a ranging market (inside the MC range), and the price should have toughed MC levels and BB (Bollinger Bands). For trading in the direction of the trend, the price should have at least touched an MC level and one of the EMAs. As we see, summation of candles X & Y was not a bearish Pinbar. So, we don't have a valid signal to go short after candle Y. In these situations we expect the price to go higher.
OANDA:XAUUSDEducation
by forexise
1
Different Types of W Patterns and How to Trade ThemHello dear KIU_COIN family 🐺 . Recently, I decided to provide some educational content for you, my dear audience, and introduce some essential and basic trading terms. Here’s what you should know: In these lessons, we will cover three different seasons: 🔹 Season 1: Reversal and continuation patterns. 🔹 Season 2: How to use RSI and other indicators to find good entry points. 🔹 Season 3: Definitions of Fibonacci and seasonality in trading. Stay tuned for valuable insights! 🚀 ✅ For the first section of 🔹 Season 1 , I’ll be covering W patterns— a well-known bullish reversal pattern : As you can see in the chart above, we usually have three types of W recovery patterns , which are the most important ones for us. However, in this section, we just want to get a general understanding of them. In the upcoming section, we will learn how to trade them and explore how they actually appear on the chart and the story behind them ! ✅ This is the first and most common type of W pattern: ✅ This is the second type of W pattern: ✅ This is the third type of W pattern: Ok, guys; I think this is enough for today, and I hope you enjoyed this educational content. However, don't forget to ask your questions below and support me with your likes and follows for more of this content. 🐺🔥
Education
by Kiu_Coin
The Questions That Matter, How, What and WhenTrading Into Key Areas: The Questions That Matter, How, What and When 📌 "Price has reached a key level—now what?" Many traders fixate on areas where price should react but fail to ask why it might react or how it arrived there. To improve decision-making, we need a structured approach that goes beyond simply marking levels on a chart. But understand this—trading is not merely about lines on a chart. It is about navigating complexity with clarity. The market is a vast, dynamic system, governed by the collective psychology of its participants. If you fail to structure your thinking properly, you will become lost in randomness, reacting emotionally instead of acting with discipline. Let’s impose order on the chaos. The Three Critical Questions ✅ 1. How did price arrive? A slow, controlled approach (efficient) suggests institutional order flow—the kind of deliberate, structured movement that signals purpose. A rapid, impulsive move (inefficient) hints at imbalances that may need correcting—gaps in liquidity that create instability. Has liquidity been built up or absorbed? Markets, like nature, do not tolerate inefficiency forever. ✅ 2. What are our expectations? Are we reacting to a level just because it looks right? Because it feels right? Beware of the trap of wishful thinking—price does not care what you believe. Does this area align with broader market structure (e.g. range extremes, supply/demand zones)? Are we leaning on experience or just bias? Are we seeing what is there, or only what we want to see? ✅ 3. What time has price reached this area? Session timing matters—a reaction at a level during the London Open carries more weight than during low-volume periods. Upcoming data releases can shift sentiment instantly—are you trading ahead of event risk, or blindly walking into volatility? Trade With Logic, Not Emotion The market is a relentless teacher, and those who refuse to ask the right questions will be punished accordingly. When price reaches a key area, think before reacting. Ask yourself: "Am I trading the market as it is, or as I wish it to be?" Because the difference between success and failure in trading is the difference between seeing reality for what it is and being blinded by your own assumptions. ⚡ Question: Do you have a checklist for trading key levels? Feel free to comment!
TVC:DXYEducation
by SERVER_SEVEN
Bearish Phase Continues: XRP's 25% Decline Possible Target $1.80Hello and greetings to all the crypto enthusiasts, ✌ Reading this educational material will require approximately 2 minutes of your time. For your convenience, I have summarized the key points in 2 concise lines at the end. I trust this information will prove to be insightful and valuable in enhancing your understanding of market and Ripple. Personal Insight & Technical Analysis of Ripple: It is conceivable that we may witness upward candlestick formations as part of the completion of the ongoing bearish phase. I have depicted this potential scenario clearly on the chart, which should provide clarity on the matter. However, there remains a distinct possibility that Ripple may experience further depreciation from this point. In fact, I foresee an additional decline of at least 25% for this asset, with a target price set at $1.80. The bearish cycle we are currently observing is far from over. One of the significant indicators of its continuation is the failure of spot prices to rise in proportion to their potential, despite initial expectations. Furthermore, these spot prices have consistently fallen in response to Bitcoin's periodic downturns and have not been able to recover their losses following Bitcoin's price recoveries. In simpler terms, it appears that the much-discussed altcoin season in the market has been short-lived. This was particularly evident for certain altcoins, including highly regarded ones such as Ethereum, which failed to achieve the levels of growth many had anticipated. This brings me to a critical observation: why, when Bitcoin achieved a new all-time high, was Ethereum unable to surpass the $5000 threshold? The question becomes even more pressing when we consider that after a market correction, during which Bitcoin regained its position, many other altcoins continued to slide, indicating a lack of positive momentum in the broader market. These factors point to a larger trend of ongoing market weakness, suggesting that additional declines may be inevitable. The inability of Ethereum and other altcoins to capitalize on Bitcoin's strength, especially during a bull run, signals a more complex and challenging market environment. This ongoing pattern highlights the fragility of altcoins, particularly in relation to Bitcoin's dominant influence. Therefore, it seems prudent to expect further downward pressure across the board as we navigate the remaining phases of this cycle." This version aims to be more in-depth, offering both an analysis of the current situation and an explanation of potential future market movements, all while maintaining a professional and polished tone. However , This analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice, and it’s important to be aware of the high risks that come with investing in crypto market and that being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post provided by the 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 We might see some upward candles as part of the current bearish phase, but Ripple could still drop another 25%, with a target price of $1.80. The ongoing market weakness is evident, as spot prices aren’t growing as expected, and altcoins like Ethereum couldn’t capitalize on Bitcoin’s new all-time high. This suggests more declines ahead for the broader market. Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋
Education
by MadWhale
9
Understanding Fibonacci ExtensionsUnderstanding Fibonacci Extensions Have you ever noticed that market movements often occur in repeatable patterns? Well, that’s where Fibonacci extensions come into play. Join us in this article as we dive into the world of Fibonacci extensions and discover how they can be a strong addition to your trading arsenal. A Primer on Fibonacci Ratios Fibonacci ratios originate from the Fibonacci sequence, where each number is the sum of the two preceding ones (e.g., 0, 1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21, 34). The key ratio, known as the Golden Ratio, is approximately 1.618. This is calculated by dividing a number in the sequence by its immediate predecessor (e.g., 34 ÷ 21 ≈ 1.619). Conversely, dividing a number by the next number yields approximately 0.618 (e.g., 21 ÷ 34 ≈ 0.618). In trading, these ratios are used to identify potential support and resistance levels through Fibonacci retracements and extensions: - Fibonacci Retracements. These indicate where the price might pull back within an existing trend. Common retracement levels are 23.6%, 38.2%, 50%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. They are derived from the ratios between numbers in the sequence and are applied to measure potential correction points. - Fibonacci Extensions. These project potential price targets beyond the current range. Key extension levels include 100%, 161.8%, 200%, 261.8%, and 423.6%. They are calculated by extending the Fibonacci ratios past the 100% level to anticipate where the price might move following a retracement. Note that these ratios can be expressed as either integers or percentages, e.g. 0.618 or 61.8%. What Are Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions (also known as Fibonacci expansions or Fib extensions) are a technical analysis tool that allows traders to determine potential levels of support and resistance for an asset’s price. Like regular support and resistance levels, they are considered as areas of interest rather than where the price will turn with pinpoint precision. They’re most frequently used to set profit targets, although they can also be used to find entries. Fibonacci extensions can be applied to any market, including forex, commodities, stocks, cryptocurrencies*, and more, and work across all timeframes. While not foolproof, using the Fibonacci extension tool combined with other forms of technical analysis might be an effective way to spot potential reversal points in financial markets. Fibonacci Retracements vs. Extensions Both Fibonacci retracements and extensions are based on the Fibonacci sequence and the Golden Ratio, but they are used to measure different things in the market. The former shows support and resistance levels during a pullback from a larger move. The latter measures the potential levels of support and resistance for an asset's price after a pullback has occurred. As shown in the chart above, the Fibonacci retracement tool can be applied to identify where the price may pull back to – 50% in this scenario. Then, the Fibonacci extension tool is used to plot where the price could end up beyond this pullback. The 100% and 161.8% levels posed significant resistance, causing the price to reverse. It’s easy to see how both tools can be used in conjunction to build a strategy. Generally speaking, traders tend to enter on a pullback to one of the key retracement levels, and then take potential profits at the extension levels. However, either tool can be used to find areas suitable for entries and exits. Fib Extensions: How to Use Them in a Trading Strategy If you’re wondering how to use Fib extensions in your own trading, here are the steps you need to follow. - Click to set the first point at a major swing low if expecting bullishness or swing high if expecting bearishness. - Place the second point at a swing in the opposite direction. - Put the third point at the low of the pullback if a bullish move is expected or the high if a bearish move is expected. That’s it! You now have an idea of where price may reverse as the trend progresses, allowing you to set profit targets or plan entries. You can also double-click the tool to adjust it to your preferences, like removing certain levels and changing colours. Bullish Example In this example, we have a swing low (1) followed by a swing high (2) that makes a retracement (3). These three points are all we need to plot a Fibonacci extension. Notice that the 138.2% level didn’t hold, showing that price isn’t always guaranteed to reverse in these areas. However, the wicks and sustained moves lower at the 100% and 161.8% areas gave traders confirmation that a reversal might be inbound. Bearish Example Here, we can see that each of the three areas prompted a pullback. Some traders might not consider the 138.2% area valid to trade. However, the most common way to get around this is to look for confirmation with a break of the trend, as denoted by the dotted line between extensions. Once the price gets beyond that swing high (intermittently breaking the downtrend), traders have confirmation that what they’re looking at is likely the start of a reversal. Some traders believe that if the price closes beyond a level, it’ll continue progressing to the next area. While this can sometimes be the case, it can just as easily reverse. Here, the price briefly closed below the 161.8% level before continuing much higher. How Can You Confirm Fib Extensions? While Fibonacci extensions suggest potential areas where price movements may reverse or stall, traders often seek additional confirmation to enhance their confidence in these levels. Here are some methods traders typically use to validate Fib extension levels. - Confluence with Other Fibonacci Levels. Traders can look for alignment between Fibonacci extensions and retracements from different timeframes or price swings. This overlap may indicate a more significant level where the price could react. - Support and Resistance Zones. If a Fibonacci extension level coincides with established support or resistance areas on the chart, it can reinforce the likelihood of a market response at that point. - Candlestick Patterns. Observing specific candlestick formations, such as doji, hammer, or engulfing patterns at Fibonacci extensions, can provide insights into potential reversals or continuations. - Technical Indicators. Incorporating indicators like moving averages, RSI, or MACD can help confirm the validity of a Fibonacci extension level. For example, if the RSI indicates overbought conditions at a key extension level, traders might anticipate a pullback. - Trendlines and Chart Patterns. Aligning Fibonacci extensions with trendlines or chart patterns like the Head and Shoulders can offer additional confirmation. Traders often find that extension levels intersecting with these tools carry more significance. - Volume Analysis. An increase in trading volume near a Fibonacci extension level may suggest stronger market interest, potentially validating the importance of that level. - Multiple Timeframe Analysis. Traders might analyse Fibonacci extensions across various timeframes to identify consistent levels of interest. A level that appears significant on both charts could be considered more reliable. - Market Sentiment and News Events. While primarily technical, acknowledging fundamental factors such as economic news or market sentiment can help traders assess whether a Fibonacci extension level might hold or be surpassed. Limitations of Fibonacci Extensions Fibonacci extensions are valuable for projecting potential price targets, but they come with limitations that traders should consider. Understanding these can lead to more informed use within a trading strategy. - Lack of Confidence in Price Movements. While based on mathematical ratios, Fibonacci extensions don't account for unexpected market events like economic news or geopolitical developments that can significantly impact prices. - Subjectivity in Point Selection. The effectiveness of extension levels hinges on correctly identifying swing highs and lows. Different traders may choose varying reference points, leading to inconsistent levels and interpretations. - Ineffectiveness in Certain Market Conditions. In sideways or highly volatile markets, prices may not respect Fib extensions, reducing their reliability as indicators of support or resistance. - Conflicting Signals Across Timeframes. Extension levels vary between different timeframes, potentially causing confusion and conflicting signals in analysis and decision-making. - Overreliance on Technicals. Focusing solely on Fib extensions might cause traders to overlook other critical technical indicators or fundamental factors influencing the market. - Unnatural Price Movements. Widespread use of Fibonacci levels can lead to price reactions simply because many traders expect them, creating artificial support or resistance that may not hold. - Psychological Biases. Traders might experience confirmation bias, seeing what they expect at Fib levels, which can lead to misguided trading decisions. Making the Most of Fibonacci Extensions By now, you may have a decent understanding of what Fib extensions are and how to use them. But how do you make the most out of Fibonacci extensions? Here are two points you may consider to improve your trading strategy. - Look for confirmation. Instead of blindly setting orders at extension levels, you can look for price action confirmation that the price is starting to reverse at the area before taking potential profits or entering a position. You could do this by looking for breaks in the trend, as discussed in the example above. - Find confluence. Similarly, you can use other technical analysis tools like trendlines, indicators like moving averages, or even multiple Fibonacci extensions, to give you a better idea of how price will likely react at a level. Your Next Steps Now, it’s time to put your understanding to the test. Spend some time practising how to use Fibonacci extensions and try backtesting a few setups to see how you could get involved in a trade. Once you feel you have a solid strategy, open an FXOpen account to start using your skills in the live market. In the meantime, why not try exploring other Fibonacci-related concepts, like Fibonacci retracements and harmonic patterns? Good luck! FAQ How Can You Use Fibonacci Extensions? Fibonacci extensions help traders identify potential future support and resistance levels beyond the current price range. To use them, traders select three points: the start of a trend, its end, and the retracement point. They then apply the Fibonacci extension tool to project where the price may move following a retracement. How Should You Draw Fibonacci Extensions? The process starts with choosing the trend-based Fib extension tool in your charting software. Then, the next step is to select the swing low/high (start of the trend), then the swing high/low (end of the trend), and finally the retracement low/high. The tool will display extension levels indicating possible future price targets. What Is the Difference Between Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions? Fibonacci retracements identify potential support and resistance levels during a price pullback within an existing trend. Extensions, on the other hand, project levels beyond the current price range, indicating where the price might move after the retracement. Retracements focus on corrections; extensions focus on trend continuations. *Important: At FXOpen UK, Cryptocurrency trading via CFDs is only available to our Professional clients. They are not available for trading by Retail clients. To find out more information about how this may affect you, please get in touch with our team. Trade on TradingView with FXOpen. Consider opening an account and access over 700 markets with tight spreads from 0.0 pips and low commissions from $1.50 per lot. This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
Education
by FXOpen
8
Making money in a downtrend - J is WILDI chose J as my public idea for the day for a lot of reasons -it’s my best idea of the day (it’s #11 on my composite score list) -covering a span of over 1800 trades (real and backtested), it has an AVERAGE gain of 2.9%. -the 1 “losing” trade in all 1800+ was a signal from yesterday which I will boldly predict will become profitable too. -it has a per day held average gain of over 3x that of the S&P500 over those 1800+ trades -it’s right at support and has some more support further down both from previous highs and an unbroken uptrend line going back over 18 months -it has a track record of rebounding nicely after earnings “disappointments” -it’s trading in the middle of its 6 month range But I also chose it to illustrate a point about the way I trade, and it’s one that is very relevant and about to become more relevant, I think. When the market starts to show weakness, people get scared of trading long. And I get that - it’s a valid concern. It’s easier to make money in an uptrend - that’s why so many people who have traded NVDA over the last 2 years think they are amazing traders. Rising tides lift ALL boats, even leaky ones. But making money in ANY environment is the difference maker. J is down a little over 11% in the last 3 months or so. It is in the middle of a legitimate Wall Street definition of a correction. I am not picking the bottom here, or even trying to. That’s the point. I don’t care if this is the bottom. It’d be great if it was, but it doesn’t matter. Now I’m not saying my algo is the greatest thing ever (though it might be for me), but the WAY I use it is significant and it illustrates something ANYONE can do when a stock or markets are trending lower. During this correction, my algo has signaled 14 LONG trades, including today. 12 have been closed profitably and one was the long signal yesterday (#14 was today). Full disclosure: I didn’t actually trade that signal yesterday, but I am today. The average gain on the 13 prior to today (including yesterday's "loser"), DURING A CORRECTION, is +0.9%. Not only does it win, but it wins consistently even when stocks are trading lower. The key is as much how/when I exit as it is the algo and its entry signals. As soon as a lot is end of day profitable, it is gone. I don’t care how much I’ve made, it’s gone. And that is a secret to making money long during a downtrend. It helps a lot that my entry signals are good ones, but the key is GET OUT WITH A PROFIT. Don’t let the market take its money back. It’s the same thing casinos try to do when you win and they have the edge - keep you playing so they can get their money back. I trade the same way in uptrends too. That leaves some money on the table then, but I take it back on the way down when I’m making money instead of losing it - and you can too. The method I use works in almost every situation, on almost any stock. But its shining moment is when things are going downhill. Not just because it makes money, but because I don’t worry about timing and downtrends much any more. Some slides can get annoying under the right circumstances, but I don’t worry. This technique has worked in every major market downtrend in the last 50 years. Except for stocks that go to zero, it works on stocks in corrections or bear markets, though at a certain point even it will lose money (I’ll be posting an idea involving NVDA in that regard sometime relatively soon). But relatively small losses are easily regained, especially if the win rate is high (which it obviously is here). The key is avoiding the BIG losses and this technique does that very well. So I went long at the close at 132.19. Per my usual strategy, I'll add to my position at the close on any day it still rates as a “buy” and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit. As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation.
NYSE:JEducation
by redwingcoach
4