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Buy Fear, Not Euphoria: The Trader's Edge When you look back at the greatest trading opportunities in history, they all seem to share a common element: fear. Yet, when you're in the moment, it feels almost impossible to pull the trigger. Why? Because fear paralyzes, while euphoria seduces. If you want to truly evolve as a trader, you need to master this fundamental shift: buy fear, not euphoria. Let's break it down together. ________________________________________ What Fear and Euphoria Really Mean in Markets In simple terms, fear shows up when prices are falling sharply, when bad news dominates the headlines, and when people around you are saying "it's all over." Euphoria, on the other hand, is everywhere when prices are skyrocketing, when everyone on social media is celebrating, and when it feels like "this can only go higher." In those moments: • Fear tells you to run away. • Euphoria tells you to throw caution to the wind. Both emotions are signals. But they are inverted signals. When fear is extreme, value appears. When euphoria is extreme, danger hides. ________________________________________ Why Buying Fear Works Markets are pricing machines. They constantly adjust prices based on emotions, news, and expectations. When fear hits, selling pressure often goes beyond what is rational. People dump assets for emotional reasons, not fundamental ones. Here’s why buying fear works: • Overreaction: Bad news usually causes exaggerated moves. • Liquidity Vacuums: Everyone sells, no one buys, creating sharp discounts. • Reversion to Mean: Extreme moves tend to revert once emotions stabilize. Buying into fear is not about being reckless. It’s about recognizing that the best deals are available when others are too scared to see them. ________________________________________ Why Chasing Euphoria Fails At the peak of euphoria, risks are often invisible to the crowd. Valuations are stretched. Expectations are unrealistic. Everyone "knows" it's going higher — which ironically means there's no one left to buy. Chasing euphoria often leads to: • Buying high, selling low. • Getting trapped at tops. • Emotional regret and revenge trading. You’re not just buying an asset — you're buying into a mass illusion. ________________________________________ How to Train Yourself to Buy Fear It's not enough to "know" this. In the heat of the moment, you will still feel the fear. Here's how you build the right habit: 1. Pre-plan your entries: Before panic strikes, have a plan. Know where you want to buy. 2. Focus on strong assets: Not everything that falls is worth buying. Choose assets with strong fundamentals or clear technical setups. 3. Scale in: Don’t try to catch the bottom perfectly. Build positions gradually as fear peaks. 4. Use alerts, not emotions: Set price alerts. When they trigger, act mechanically. 5. Remember past patterns: Study previous fear-driven crashes. See how they recovered over time. Trading is a game of memory. The more you internalize past patterns, the easier it is to act when everyone else panics. ________________________________________ A Recent Example: April 2025 Tariff Panic Very recently, at the start of April, Trump’s new tariff announcements sent shockwaves through the market. Panic took over. Headlines screamed. Social media was flooded with fear. But if you looked beyond the noise, charts like SP500 and US30 told a different story: the drops took price right into strong support zones. At the time, I even posted this : support zones were being tested under emotional pressure. If you had price alerts set and reacted mechanically, not emotionally , you could have bought into that fear — and potentially benefited from the rebound that followed just days later. This is the essence of buying fear. ________________________________________ Final Thoughts In trading, you are paid for doing the hard things. Buying when it feels terrible. Selling when it feels amazing. Remember: Fear offers you discounts. Euphoria offers you traps. The next time the market feels like it's crashing, ask yourself: • Is this fear real, or exaggerated? • Is this an opportunity hiding under an emotional fog? If you can answer that with clarity, you're already ahead of 90% of traders. Stay rational. Stay prepared. And above all: buy fear, not euphoria. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analyses and educational articles.

Education

GBP/USD – 1992 Replay | George Soros “Broke the Bank” Trade Historical Context Summary: This chart revisits the iconic 1992 short by George Soros against the British Pound, which ultimately forced the UK to abandon its currency peg and exit the European Exchange Rate Mechanism (ERM). The marked zones reflect the approximate levels where Soros reportedly initiated and closed his short position, anticipating a collapse of the GBP against the USD. Real-time Trade Thesis: Soros identified that the British economy was fundamentally too weak to sustain a fixed exchange rate against the Deutsche Mark, enforced through the ERM. Inflation was high, the economy was slowing, and the government was hiking rates and burning through reserves to defend the pound. Meanwhile, Germany’s economy was far stronger, making the GBP significantly overvalued relative to its fundamentals. The Quantum Fund went short over £10 billion worth of GBP using highly leveraged positions, primarily via GBP/USD. On September 16, 1992 ("Black Wednesday") , the Bank of England capitulated after failing to hold the peg, and the pound collapsed—securing Soros one of the most profitable trades in history with over $1 billion in gains. Technical Analysis Context: This GBP/USD chart highlights the upper “order activation” zone where Soros began scaling into his short, as price stalled near the artificially defended level. As speculative pressure intensified, the central bank’s interventions failed, leading to a violent breakdown. The lower box marks the approximate range where Soros likely began closing the trade and locking in profit as the peg failed and panic selling set in. Key Lessons: Pegged currencies can’t defy economic fundamentals forever. Macro conviction + tactical timing = asymmetric return. Central banks can lose to coordinated market pressure. Use leverage wisely, only when your thesis is airtight. Liquidity stress often precedes capitulation—watch reserve flows and bond yields. History leaves patterns—legendary trades repeat in new forms across cycles.

Education

by GreenZoneCapital

From Scanner to Trade: Full Workflow Guides From Scanner to Trade: Full Workflow Guides Table of Contents Introduction Why a Full Workflow is Crucial for Consistent Trading Step 1: Defining Your Edge-What to Scan For Step 2: Setting Up Scanners in TradingView Step 3: Filtering & Ranking Potential Trades Step 4: Deep Analysis-Technical, Fundamental, and Sentiment Checks Step 5: Planning the Trade-Entries, Exits, and Risk Step 6: Executing the Trade and Real-Time Adjustments Step 7: Trade Management-Monitoring and Adapting Step 8: Post-Trade Review and Journaling Step 9: Tips, Case Studies, and Advanced Workflows Conclusion: Making the Scanner-to-Trade Workflow Your Own Introduction What separates a consistent trader from someone who hops between strategies, never seeing results? Workflow. The difference is as dramatic as preparing a gourmet moussaka with carefully layered ingredients versus tossing random ones into a pan. As passionate trading tool creators, we know the power of process . Yet, most TradingView users stop at scanning for new tickers, rarely following a structured approach from scanning to trade selection , execution , and review . That’s where this in-depth guide comes in. This article will walk you through a step-by-step workflow , using TradingView’s powerful features and easy-to-follow frameworks to help you transform from a chart-hopper into a methodical trader. Let’s get started! Why a Full Workflow is Crucial for Consistent Trading Before we break down the process, let’s understand why a workflow matters. Eliminates Guesswork : A workflow ensures every trade passes the same high standards, reducing emotional decisions. Saves Time : Systematic filtering and ranking quickly highlight the best opportunities. Improves Results : Backtests show that traders using a structured workflow outperform those who pick trades impulsively. Enables Review : Every step can be reviewed post-trade, so you always know what worked and what didn’t. The workflow is your trading “recipe.” Follow it, tweak it, and the results will come. Step 1: Defining Your Edge-What to Scan For Your workflow begins before you scan. First, define what you want to find. Are you a breakout trader, mean-reversion specialist, or a momentum chaser? Your edge -the reason you believe you can profit-should drive every scan. Ask Yourself: Do I want to catch squeeze breakouts with momentum? Am I seeking multi-timeframe trend alignment? Are volume spikes important for my entries? Do I care about a stock’s fundamentals or just the chart? Case Study: Finding Squeeze Momentum Setups Suppose you love the squeeze momentum strategy. Your scanner should look for: Low Bollinger Bandwidth (market coiling up) Rising momentum (e.g., MACD turning up) Volume spike confirming interest This is your “ingredient list”-customize it to your taste and strategy. Step 2: Setting Up Scanners in TradingView TradingView’s Stock Screener is powerful, yet many traders barely scratch the surface. Here’s how to go beyond the basics. 2.1 Launching the Screener Open any TradingView chart. Click the Screener tab (bottom panel). Choose Stocks , Crypto , or Forex according to your focus. 2.2 Customizing Your Filters Set market (e.g., NASDAQ, NYSE, Crypto Top 100). Add technical filters: price change %, RSI, MACD, volume, volatility, and, if available, squeeze momentum values (e.g., your custom script output). Add fundamental filters if needed: EPS growth, P/E ratio, market cap, etc. Example Setup: Squeeze Momentum Breakout Scan Market: US stocks (selected in the screener) Liquidity Filter: Volume × Price > 100M USD (focuses on liquid stocks and avoids thinly traded names) Volatility & Momentum Filter: Vol Change > 10% (captures stocks with significant recent movement) Minimum Price Filter: Price > 10 USD (to avoid penny stocks and illiquid tickers) Volatility Squeeze Condition: 1. Bollinger Bands (20, 1 day) Lower above Keltner Channels (20, 1 day) Lower, and 2. Bollinger Bands (20, 1 day) Upper below Keltner Channels (20, 1 day) Upper (classic squeeze setup: BB inside KC highlights contraction/ready-to-expand momentum) Calibration isn't about being perfect-it's about making your tools work better for specific markets. 2.3 Saving and Automating Your Scanner Save your screener settings as a preset ( Save Screener Template ). Set up alerts (once this feature becomes available in TradingView) so you’ll be notified when a new ticker matches your criteria. Step 3: Filtering & Ranking Potential Trades Your scanner likely spits out dozens of results. Time to filter and rank them, so you focus only on the “cream of the crop.” 3.1 The First Pass-Eliminate Noise Skip tickers with low liquidity (e.g., daily volume < 100,000 shares for stocks). Ignore assets with unreliable price action (wide spreads, frequent gaps). Check for major news events or earnings that could cause unexpected volatility. 3.2 Ranking Your Candidates Prioritize by: Strength of signal (e.g., squeeze + multi-timeframe trend alignment) Volume surge (higher is better) Relative strength vs. benchmark (e.g., SPY, BTC) Proximity to strong support/resistance (closer is often better for risk/reward) Pro Tip: Create a Scorecard Assign 1–5 points for each criterion and total up scores for each ticker. Focus on the top 3–5 results. Don’t just “feel” your top picks-score them for objective clarity! Step 4: Deep Analysis-Technical, Fundamental, and Sentiment Checks With ranked candidates, now perform a deeper dive. This is where your experience and favorite tools come into play. 4.1 Charting and Technicals Apply your key indicators (e.g., Squeeze Mom, Power Trends, Volume Profile). Check price structure: higher highs/lows, base breakouts, wedges, etc. Look for confluence: do different indicators and patterns agree? 4.2 Multi-Timeframe Confirmation Check setup validity on daily, 4H, and 1H charts. Does the larger trend support your trade, or are you trading against momentum? 4.3 Optional: Fundamental & Sentiment Checks Is the company reporting earnings soon? Any big news? For crypto, is there on-chain or social sentiment you should know about? Example Workflow: Chart 1: Daily Squeeze setting up, MACD positive, volume picking up. Chart 2: 1H uptrend confirmed, minor pullback for entry. News: No earnings for two weeks-less risk of surprise. Step 5: Planning the Trade-Entries, Exits, and Risk Now that you have a shortlist of well-vetted opportunities, it’s time to craft a plan. Failing to prepare is preparing to fail-so we layer in precise entries, realistic targets, and robust risk management. 5.1 Entry Strategies: The Art of Timing Your scanner found potential, but your entry determines your reward-to-risk. Here’s how to approach it on TradingView: Breakout Entry: Place buy-stop orders just above resistance or the squeeze “release” point. Pullback Entry: Wait for a retrace to moving average or previous support, then enter on bullish reversal candle. Confirmation Entry: Wait for indicator confirmation (e.g., Squeeze firing, MACD cross, volume surge) before pulling the trigger. Great entries are less about prediction and more about preparation and confirmation. Visualizing Your Entry Draw horizontal lines at anticipated entry points ( Alt + J hotkey). Use TradingView’s “long position” tool to visualize profit/loss zones. 5.2 Setting Targets: Aim for Realistic Wins Don’t hope-measure! Define exits before entering so emotion doesn’t sabotage your plan. Price Target: Project a move based on past squeeze breakouts (e.g., last breakout ranged $4, set target for similar move). ATR (Average True Range): Use ATR to estimate typical moves and avoid setting targets too far or too close. Fibonacci Extensions: Use Fibs to find likely resistance/support for partial profits. 5.3 Stop Losses: Defend Your Capital Risk management is your lifeline. Set stops where the trade idea is invalidated-not just at arbitrary numbers. Below previous support or swing low (for long trades). At technical invalidation-e.g., squeeze fails and price dips below the setup. ATR-based stop (e.g., 1.5x ATR below entry). Trade Example: Entry: Breakout above $100. Stop Loss: $97 (previous support, 1.5x ATR). Target: $104 (measured move from last squeeze). 5.4 Position Sizing: How Much to Risk? Golden Rule: Risk only a small percentage of your trading capital per trade. Standard: 1–2% of account per trade. Use TradingView’s position tool to measure. Calculate shares/contracts based on distance from entry to stop. Position sizing is the invisible lever that controls your trading destiny. Step 6: Executing the Trade and Real-Time Adjustments Execution bridges planning and reality. Even the best plans need discipline, fast reflexes, and the willingness to adapt if markets shift. 6.1 Entering the Trade: Be Precise Use limit or stop orders, not market orders, to avoid slippage-especially in fast-moving assets. Review your parameters one last time. Set alerts using TradingView’s Alarm Clock icon for your entry, stop, and target. // Basic Alert Example in Pine Script if (ta.crossover(ta.sma(close, 9),ta.sma(close, 21)) ) alert("Bullish crossover detected", alert.freq_once_per_bar) 6.2 Monitoring During the Trade Keep emotions out-let the process work. However, always watch for: Sudden news events or market shocks. Volume surges against your position. Reversal candles (e.g., bearish engulfing at target zone). 6.3 Adjusting On-the-Fly Sometimes, price action demands flexibility: Move stop to break-even once price moves in your favor. Scale out (sell a portion) at first target, let the rest run. Exit early if your setup is invalidated (e.g., heavy volume reversal). Adaptation is not abandoning the plan-it’s respecting the market’s message. Step 7: Trade Management-Monitoring and Adapting Trade management is an art that separates amateur from pro. 7.1 Trailing Stops and Locking Profits Use trailing stops (fixed % or ATR-based) to lock in gains if price runs well past your target. TradingView’s “long/short position” tool helps visualize your risk/reward as price moves. 7.2 Scaling In/Out Scale in: Add to winners on confirmed strength (e.g., after strong breakout retest). Scale out: Sell partial positions at key resistance/fib levels. 7.3 Dealing With Adverse Moves If stop hit, close trade-review, don’t revenge trade. If setup changes dramatically (e.g., news reversal), consider exiting early. The best traders protect profits, not egos. Step 8: Post-Trade Review and Journaling By now, you’ve completed the trade-but the learning (and edge-building) is just beginning. 8.1 Review Every Trade: The Secret to Improvement Did you follow your plan? If not, why? What worked? What didn’t? Were your scanner criteria effective? Was your sizing/risk on point? 8.2 Journaling Your Workflow Create a trade journal, either in TradingView’s notes or external tool (Notion, Google Sheets, etc.) Screenshot entry/exit with annotations. Log your scanner triggers and reasoning. Add psychological notes: Were you calm or emotional? Tag setups: “Earnings Squeeze,” “Breakout,” etc. A detailed journal is your best trading mentor. 8.3 Performance Analysis Periodically review your logs to spot patterns: Which setups yield best R/R? Where do you most often break your rules? How does time of day/market impact outcomes? Step 9: Tips, Case Studies, and Advanced Workflows 9.1 Expert Tips for Workflow Success Automate alerts for scanner triggers-don’t stare at screens all day. Batch your research (e.g., scan every evening, then focus only on finalists). Develop a pre-trade checklist (see sample below). Refine regularly: Tweak scanner filters as markets evolve. // Sample Pre-Trade Checklist as Comments // 1. Is the squeeze setup clear on multiple timeframes? // 2. Is volume confirming the move? // 3. Any major news/earnings ahead? // 4. Stop loss + target realistic? 9.2 Real-World Case Study: Squeeze Momentum on TSLA Imagine your scanner spits out NASDAQ:TSLA due to a tight squeeze and surge in volume. Analyze the chart: Daily chart shows a strong squeeze setup with multi-timeframe squeezes firing bullish momentum (see the MTF Squeeze dashboard and green histogram). Volume spikes confirm buying interest. The 4H and daily timeframes are both aligned to the upside. Check Earnings: Earnings are 30 days away, reducing the risk of event-driven surprises. Trade Setup: Set entry just above the most recent swing high ( $197.5 ), with stop-loss below the support and squeeze base ( $186 ). The initial profit target is set at a measured move near $220 (prior swing high resistance and typical squeeze expansion). Manage the Trade: Enter on breakout above $197.5; once price reaches around $208–$210, move stop to break-even. As price hits $220, sell half and trail the remainder using the 4H ATR or dynamic support. Journal: “Setup fired as per screener and indicator alignment: volume spike, momentum, and squeeze breakout confirmed. Exited partial at target, managed risk throughout.” 9.3 Advanced: Multi-Timeframe, Multi-Asset Workflow Combine scans across different assets (stocks, crypto, forex) using saved screener presets for catching opportunities globally. Create custom “watchlists” for different strategies, and rotate focus based on market conditions. Stocks: Focus on squeeze breakouts. Crypto: Seek mean reversion in sideways markets. Forex: Look for multi-timeframe trend alignment. Conclusion: Making the Scanner-to-Trade Workflow Your Own Trading is not about prediction, but process. The difference between hope and edge is workflow-layered, adaptable, and reviewable. By mastering the scanner-to-trade workflow, you can: Act with confidence, not hesitation. Avoid missed wins and costly emotional losses. Turn complexity into clarity-one structured step at a time. Start simple, layer in complexity as your skills grow, and let your journal be your improvement compass. The recipes here are just a foundation-make them your own, adapt them for your tools, markets, and goals. Your next high-quality trade is just a repeatable workflow away. Happy trading and happy building!

Education

Game-changing analysis technique that will elevate your strategy As many of my loyal followers know, my analysis toolkit goes beyond just the standard fare of CME options data and COT reports. I dive deeper, utilizing additional filters like the average long and short positions of retail traders. These insights are publicly available, and while I won’t name specific sources to avoid any hint of hidden promotion, I’ll give you a clue: look for a website with the word "book" in its title. 📚 For years, I’ve relied on this data, and it has proven to be both reliable and insightful. The average positions of market participants serve as both filters and indicators. But what do I mean by indicators? Let’s break it down. When the price interacts with these levels, it reveals the market sentiment. For instance, if the price is below the average long position and breaks through easily, it’s a bullish sentiment. Conversely, if it hovers below the level and struggles to break through, that’s still bullish, as it indicates buyers are being drawn into profitable territory. Now, let’s flip the script for the bears: if the price breaks down from above or struggles below the average short position, that’s a bearish sentiment. The price isn’t responding to sellers, dragging them into a profit land. There’s more. Often, you’ll notice different behaviors near these key levels, allowing you to enter positions with an incredible risk/reward ratio of 3:1, 5:1, or even better! This clarity gives you insight into the current market mood—who’s being punished and who’s favored at that moment. Now, let’s take a look at the screenshot of the British Pound futures chart. Here’s what you’ll see: - A green line representing the average long position of retail traders. - A red line for the average short position. - The breakeven point of a put option contract for the June futures expiring on May 22, with 1,320 contracts at a strike of 1.295. Take a moment to study the chart. What do you observe? 🤓 Ok, breathe in, breathe out. Tomorrow, we’ll dive deeper into this analysis. Don’t forget to subscribe so you won’t miss the continuation of this story! The insights I’ll share are definitely worth your time, as I aim to shift your perspective on the market by demonstrating a clear methodology without relying on indicators or technical patterns. Stay tuned; it’s going to be incredibly valuable! 🚀✨

Education

by ClashChartsTeam

TWAP and Chaikin's Osc vs VWAP Orders and VWAP Indicator There are two primary Order Types that the Professional Side of the market use. 1. Time Weighted at Average Price, aka TWAP , is used extensively by the Dark Pool Buy Side, Derivative Developers, and Sell Side Banks of record for Buybacks for corporations. The TWAP can be set at a penny to few pennies spread and pings and transacts on a specific TIME to PRICE. It can be set to time intervals shorter or longer. This is why the stock market is called "fully automated". TWAP is used most of the time. It is rare for the Giant Institutions to use VWAP orders due to the May 2010 FLASH CRASH when a fundamental trader of e-minis accidentally hit the VWAP order type rather than the TWAP order type which caused a massive collapse of all stocks as VWAPs accelerate selling as volume increases. 2. Volume Weighted at Price or VWAP is ALSO an ORDER TYPE. It is primarily used by Small Funds Managers and Small Asset Managers who are independents trading their customers' investment money actively, often intraday. Volume Weighted at price ORDER TYPES are also automated and ping to trigger the order to transact as volume increases. This is an easy, simple way for a busy small fund manager to cope with the complexity of buying and selling stocks with 10,000 share lots to 100,000 share lots. These are the NEW "whales" of the market. Professional Traders Swing trade 1 million to 5 million or higher share-lot sizes. The size of the orders of the professional trader has increased significantly in the past decade. All of you need to be aware of the market participants on the professional side as they control 80% of the 1 trillion dollars that exchange hands daily on the US Markets. Using Chaikin's Oscillator is ideal for tracking the Dark Pool Buy Side who create the bottoms. This excellent indicator analyzes all 3 data sets: price, volume and time. Thus, it can signal early that the Dark Pools have slowly started to accumulate over time and the runs down will turn into a bottom and then pro traders will nudge price to inspire VWAP orders from the Smaller funds managers. The VWAP INDICATOR is excellent for tracking the smaller funds managers' trading activity and it ALSO has price, volume, and time in the formula. So this is great for those of you who need an indicator for following smaller funds activity as these smaller funds VWAP orders trigger more and more volume and then runs that can move up or down for several days. TradingView has an awesome group of indicators to use. You should customize your indicators to which market participant groups you wish to track so that you can be ready and in a position before the big runs up or down. Trade Wisely, Martha Stokes CMT

Education

07:55

by MarthaStokesCMT-TechniTrader

HOW-TO: Use the Camarilla Pivots & BBT Strategies indicator This how-to shows the Camarilla Pivot & BBT Strategies indicator in action, the 5-minute timeframe is ideal for this. It shows the price action reacting to the HA play (S3 to R3 traversal). The "H" means that the ticker is in a Higher range on this day, the "A" refers to the label on the strategy in the image. In fact, the price does past R3 (which is the exit point) and reaches R4, at which point it trigger the "E" play, which is an R4 extreme reversal. A great trade, if you took it!

Education

How to Regain Your Trading MOJO Every trader, no matter how experienced, eventually hits a rough patch — a period where trades don’t work out, motivation fades, and confidence slips away. If you feel like you've lost your trading mojo, you're not alone. The key is not to quit but to rebuild it methodically. Here’s how to get your trading energy back on track: 1. Accept That Slumps Are Normal First, realize that losing your mojo is part of the trading journey. Even the best traders experience drawdowns — emotionally and financially. Acknowledging that this phase is temporary immediately removes some of the pressure and guilt. Self-acceptance is your first weapon. 2. Reduce Risk and Slow Down When your confidence is low, lower your position size. Trade smaller. Risk less. You don’t need to stop trading completely — you need to stop damaging yourself further. Think of it as “active recovery,” much like athletes training lightly after an injury. 3. Go Back to Basics Strip your trading plan down to the essentials: - Focus on one setup you trust. - Use clear entry and exit rules. - Avoid complicated strategies or "revenge trading." Simplicity restores clarity, and clarity brings confidence. 4. Reframe Losses Mentally Instead of seeing losses as failures, view them as fees for learning. Ask yourself after each trade: - "Was this trade according to my plan?" - "Did I respect my stop loss?" If yes, you are winning — even if the trade loses money. Consistency in good decision-making rebuilds emotional momentum. 5. Visualize the Trader You Want to Be Take 5 minutes each day to visualize yourself executing perfect trades: - Calmly analyzing. - Patiently waiting. - Executing your plan without emotion. Your brain needs new emotional associations with trading — not fear and anxiety, but calm and focus. 6. Set Tiny Wins Don't chase the big win right away. Set micro-goals like: - "I will follow my stop loss rules today." - "I will not overtrade today." - "I will wait for my setup." Achieving small wins daily rebuilds your trader identity brick by brick. Final Thoughts : Regaining your trading mojo is less about finding a "magic moment" and more about stacking good habits and resetting your mind. You don't need a new system, a new market, or a lucky break. You need to reconnect with the disciplined, focused trader within you. Stay patient, stay structured, and remember — your mojo isn’t lost forever. It’s just waiting for you to catch up. 🚀

Education

It’s Not Always the Strategy — Sometimes It’s the Wrong Pair Many traders endlessly tweak their strategies, thinking small losses or missed trades are always a sign the system itself is broken. But in reality, sometimes the real problem isn't the strategy — it's the market you're applying it to. Different forex pairs have different "personalities." Some are cleaner, trending smoothly with respect to structure, while others are choppier, heavily manipulated, or extremely news-sensitive. A structure-based strategy might perform well on pairs like GBP/JPY, where price respects support, resistance, and supply-demand zones cleanly. But the same strategy could struggle badly on a pair like EUR/USD, where high liquidity and institutional manipulation cause frequent fakeouts and liquidity sweeps. Choosing the right pair for your strategy is just as important as the rules of the system itself. A good strategy in the wrong market will feel like a broken strategy. Before doubting your edge, ask: "Am I applying my system in the right place?" Adapt your focus. Match your strategy with a market that suits its nature — and you'll be surprised how much smoother your trading becomes. #forex #tradingpsychology #forexeducation #gbpjpy #eurusd #forextrading #tradingview

Education

Gambling Is Not Trading : A Quick Reminder to THINK I've been getting quite a few messages from followers and many are positive. I seems my videos are helping many of you learn better skills and helping you find profits from these bigger price swings. But it also seems some of you are really gambling for the bigger gains with 0DTE options and taking excessive risks (IMO). I want to urge all of you to THINK and to try to learn to adopt a more fluid style of trading. The markets will quickly humble many of you gamblers. They have a way of taking everything you have when you let your guard down. Start Small. Build Your Skills. Learn How To Check Yourself When You Get Into That Gambling Mode. Remember, The Market Can Take EVERYTHING (And MORE). The trick to trading is to learn to GROW your account without gambling. It is like being a Sniper. You have to learn when to take your shot and you also have to learn when to be patient and wait. One of the best pieces of advice I've heard came from a friend (who trades options). He stated. Start Small Book Winners Quickly Book Anything over 20-25% -- Then Plan For The next Attack. Think about it. He's been trading for more than 20 years and has learned many of the pitfalls over that time. And, he is the one guy that I've seen generate 100-200%+ a week (consistently) over the past 2+ years. If you want to survive as a trader, you have to start thinking like a trader (not a GAMBLER). I hope this video helps. Get some. #trading #research #investing #tradingalgos #tradingsignals #cycles #fibonacci #elliotwave #modelingsystems #stocks #bitcoin #btcusd #cryptos #spy #gold #nq #investing #trading #spytrading #spymarket #tradingmarket #stockmarket #silver

Education

25:31

Option Insights – Trading the Greeks (4 of 4) Time Value Trading Option Insights – Trading the Greeks Part 4 of 4: Time Value Trading and the Volatility Premium ________________________________________ Introduction to Time Value Strategies Time value strategies are among the most widely used option strategies. In their simplest form, these involve selling options, collecting the premium, and aiming to retain it—i.e., hoping the option remains out-of-the-money (OTM) until expiration. The most common application is the sale of short-term (typically under 3 months, often under 3 weeks) OTM put options on single stocks or equity indices. The core rationale for selling options is time decay: if all other variables remain constant, the passage of time alone reduces the option’s value. As an option seller, time is on your side. This strategy has gained popularity thanks to consistent historical statistics: OTM equity puts have ended worthless most of the time in recent years—especially for zero days to expiration (0DTE) options. This suggests a high probability of success. However, selling puts carries significant downside risk. In periods of market correction or sharp price drops in the underlying, losses can occur that wipe out months—or even years—of accumulated premium. This creates a tradeoff: frequent small profits from selling options, offset by rare but potentially large losses. This asymmetry is evident in the performance of strategies like the PUTW ETF, which systematically sells SPX puts (see introductory chart). ________________________________________ Where Does Time Value Come From—and Why Does It Decay? The time value of an option arises from the volatility of the underlying asset. If the underlying price exhibited no volatility—moving linearly at a fixed rate—option values would simply reflect discounted intrinsic value at expiration. In that world, options would behave predictably and hold no additional time value. But in reality, assets fluctuate. Volatility introduces uncertainty, which increases the value of the option due to its asymmetric payoff: • If the price ends far in-the-money (ITM), the buyer benefits fully. • If it ends far out-of-the-money (OTM), the buyer loses only the premium. This favorable risk profile has value, which is reflected in the option’s time value—the premium over its intrinsic value. This time value increases with: • Longer expiration horizons • Higher volatility • Proximity to the money When options move far from the strike price (deep ITM or OTM), they begin to resemble synthetic linear positions (long or short underlying) or a “null” position, and the asymmetric advantage—and hence time value—diminishes. ________________________________________ What Is Actually Traded in Time Value Strategies? Selling short-term options is essentially a range-trading strategy. The trader is expressing a view that, by expiration, the underlying will not enter a specific price range. For put sellers, this range extends from the strike price down to zero: • If the underlying stays above the strike, the premium is kept. • If it drops below, losses can be substantial. In this setup: • Delta represents the key short-term risk factor (price sensitivity). • Over time, Theta (time decay) takes over close to the strike price. This range-based view may be easier to formulate than directional price forecasts. Traders are effectively betting on the probability that the underlying finishes OTM. Black-Scholes implied probabilities for OTM options to end OTM are typically above 50%. However, each trader must assess whether the real-world probability is higher or lower. Success hinges on understanding the drivers of real-world price distributions, including technical levels, macroeconomic triggers, and potential pivot zones that define future price ranges. ________________________________________ Risk Management in Time Value Trading A well-defined risk management plan is essential for time value strategies. If the underlying moves contrary to expectations, actions include: • Closing the position and accepting a loss (realize losses early, when they are small, especially if hope is only reason to hang on) • Hedging with the underlying asset (Delta Target/Hedge) • Selling option spreads instead of naked options (limiting downside) • Using entry filters to avoid risky environments For example, in U.S. equity markets, traders often avoid selling puts when: • VIX9D rises above the VIX • The first VIX future trades above the second These are signs of market stress and increased near-term volatility. Typical guidelines for selling index puts: • Sell index puts with Deltas between -20 and -30, as these are often favored by institutional hedgers. • Buy back short puts when Delta reaches -10, as the remaining premium does not justify the risk. • Selling options with a Delta of around ±10 is colloquially known as "picking up pennies in front of a steamroller"—frequent very small wins with looming large risks. ________________________________________ Monetizing the Volatility Premium One of the most compelling aspects of time value trading is the opportunity to capture the volatility premium. Historically, the implied volatility of index options has been consistently higher than the realized volatility of the underlying index. This difference—implied minus realized—is the volatility premium. Why Does the Volatility Premium Exist? Primarily due to: • Hedging demand, especially from leveraged players • Structural imbalances in supply and demand for options For example, SPX volatility premium is often visualized by comparing: • VIX (a synthetic 30-day implied volatility index) • Rolling 30-day realized volatility of the SPX ________________________________________ This premium can be exploited through two main methods: 1. Selling variance swaps 2. Selling options and delta-hedging with the underlying ________________________________________ How Does Selling Options Capture the Volatility Premium? Experienced vs. Calculated Volatility Monetizing the volatility premium essentially involves shorting the spread between implied volatility and ex-post realized volatility—effectively being short implied volatility while being long realized volatility. This relationship is most directly observable in variance swaps, where the final payoff is precisely the difference between the initially implied variance and the ex-post realized variance (i.e., the square of volatility). Though not identical to the direct difference in volatilities, it is effectively equivalent in the context of variance swaps. However, when trading options—or the underlying asset—neither implied nor realized volatility can be directly traded in isolation. Instead, what can be monetized is the price of volatility. This is done by selling the option premium, which reflects the market’s price for implied volatility for a specific strike and expiration date. Realized volatility, in turn, can be "traded" by replicating the option's payoff through a delta-hedging strategy. In such a replication, the final cost of the strategy corresponds to the option premium as if it had been priced using the ex-post realized volatility. Replicating a long option in this way is functionally equivalent to delta-neutralizing a short option position. Thus, capturing the volatility premium using options involves selling options (becoming short the price of implied volatility) and delta-hedging the position with the underlying asset. This hedge effectively replicates the value of the option as priced with realized volatility. ________________________________________ Important Distinctions: • In a variance swap, realized volatility refers to the variance or standard deviation of daily returns (calculated realized volatility). • In a delta-neutral option strategy, the realized volatility depends on the hedging frequency and is called experienced volatility. While the payoff of a variance swap reflects the difference between implied variance and calculated realized variance, an option-selling strategy monetizes the premium (implied volatility) versus the replication cost (based on experienced volatility). This distinction marks a key difference between using options versus variance swaps to capture the volatility premium. Variance swaps are passive and fixed in structure, whereas option-based strategies introduce degrees of freedom in how delta hedging is executed—thereby influencing which realized volatility is ultimately experienced. The art of monetizing the volatility premium through options lies in designing a hedging strategy that minimizes experienced realized volatility over the life of the trade. When done effectively, this approach can be profitable even when calculated realized volatility exceeds the initial implied volatility. That said, selling options while delta-hedging introduces gamma risk—the risk arising from large or frequent movements in the underlying asset. The profitability of the strategy becomes path-dependent, driven by how volatile and jumpy the asset is during the option’s life. This introduces another layer of complexity that differentiates option-based strategies from variance swaps. There is another way to trade the implied vs. realized spread via Timer Options, which we will not cover here. ________________________________________ Gamma Scalping vs. Volatility Premium Strategies Though seemingly opposite, Gamma Scalping and Volatility Premium capture strategies via options are surprisingly complementary. Both strategies involve option positions + underlying hedges, but with different objectives for hedge execution. While Gamma Scalping’s Delta Hedge is balancing countercyclical, trying to maximize the experienced volatility, Volatility Premium Strategies hedge Pro-cyclical and try to minimize the experienced volatility. by parsifaltrading

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by parsifaltrading

Visa-Ripple Partnership Could Spark a Significan from Trenovia G The financial world is undergoing a period of active transformation, and one of the most talked-about developments is the potential partnership between Visa and Ripple. According to a new analytical report by Trenovia Group, such a strategic collaboration could act as a catalyst for a substantial rise in Visa's stock value in the coming months. Key Growth Drivers Trenovia Group analysts emphasize that integrating Ripple’s technologies into Visa’s ecosystem would dramatically enhance the speed and reduce the cost of international transactions. RippleNet, built on blockchain technology, offers unique advantages: near-instant settlements, greater transparency, and lower fees compared to traditional interbank systems. Partnering with Ripple would provide Visa with a powerful technological upgrade, reinforcing its dominance in the payment solutions market, particularly in cross-border transfers. Expected Market Reaction According to Trenovia Group, even the announcement of such a partnership could trigger a strong positive reaction from investors. In an increasingly competitive payments landscape, adopting blockchain innovations would be seen as a forward-looking move, enhancing Visa’s market appeal. Technical analysis also points to favorable conditions: Visa shares are maintaining solid support around $260, and the formation of a "bullish flag" pattern suggests the potential for a breakout following positive news. Strategic Importance of the Alliance Trenovia Group highlights the long-term strategic benefits of this union. As digital currencies and decentralized payment systems gain traction, the integration of blockchain-based solutions would ensure Visa’s adaptability to evolving market and regulatory demands. Meanwhile, Ripple would gain access to Visa’s vast global client network, boosting its position as a leader in the corporate cross-border payments sector. Conclusion According to Trenovia Group’s forecast, the Visa-Ripple partnership could provide a powerful boost to Visa’s stock. Upon successful integration of RippleNet technologies, analysts project a 15–25% rise in Visa's share price within the first six months after the announcement. For investors, this could represent a rare opportunity to invest in the expansion of the world’s leading payment platform during a crucial phase of digital transformation.

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Gravions IG: Why Apple's Shift to India Could Trigger a Drop in Apple is betting heavily on changing its production geography, planning to move a significant portion of iPhone assembly from China to India by 2026. Analysts at Gravions IG have assessed the situation and concluded that this move could negatively impact the company’s stock value in the near term. Key Risks of Production Relocation Indian manufacturing facilities, although growing rapidly, have not yet achieved the level of quality and logistical efficiency seen at Chinese plants. Gravions IG emphasizes that reconfiguring production processes takes time, and potential disruptions in supply chains or reduced quality in the early batches could trigger dissatisfaction among consumers and partners. According to their analysis, the transition could increase product costs and squeeze profit margins, putting pressure on Apple’s financial results over the next few quarters. Investor Reactions Current market behavior reflects investor caution: Apple's share price has already fallen nearly 17% since the start of the year, with technical indicators suggesting further declines. The formation of a "death cross" — where the 50-day moving average crosses below the 200-day moving average — heightens concerns about a prolonged downtrend. Gravions IG stresses that until the Indian production lines are fully operational and stable, Apple's stock will likely remain under selling pressure. Strategic Perspective: Opportunity or Risk? In the long run, diversifying manufacturing could benefit Apple by reducing its dependence on China and insulating it from potential geopolitical or economic shocks. Additionally, the Indian government's efforts to bolster its manufacturing sector could provide Apple with a stronger foundation for future expansion. Still, Gravions IG insists that until Indian facilities reach consistent quality and scale, Apple will be vulnerable to market sentiment swings and potential reputational risks. Conclusion Relocating production is a strategically sound but high-risk move for Apple in the short term. Gravions IG advises investors to closely monitor product quality and supply chain stability in India before making long-term investment decisions regarding Apple's stock.

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Solvery IG Predicts Bitcoin to Reach $105,000 by May 10, 2025 The cryptocurrency market continues to surprise even the most seasoned investors. Against this backdrop, the analytical firm Solvery IG has released an ambitious forecast: according to their calculations, Bitcoin's price could reach $105,000 by May 10, 2025. Factors Supporting Bitcoin's Growth In recent months, the market has shown strong positive momentum. Several key factors have contributed to this trend: Institutional Investments: Major banks, funds, and corporations are increasingly incorporating Bitcoin into their portfolios as a hedge against risks. Macroeconomic Instability: Inflationary pressures and weakening fiat currencies are driving investors to seek alternative assets. According to Solvery IG experts, it is the combination of these factors that creates a "perfect storm" for the continued growth of the leading cryptocurrency. Analysis and Potential Risks Despite the optimistic forecast, potential threats should not be overlooked. The cryptocurrency market remains highly volatile. Possible tightening of regulations in the U.S. and Europe, as well as sudden shifts in Federal Reserve policies, could exert downward pressure on the market. Nevertheless, Solvery IG highlights a crucial technical point: according to their data, Bitcoin has successfully held above key support levels between $60,000 and $65,000. This indicates strong buyer sentiment and supports expectations for a continued upward trend. The impact of the halving event, which occurred in April 2024, should also be taken into account. Historically, Bitcoin has shown significant growth 12–18 months following a halving, and the current market behavior aligns closely with these cyclical patterns. What This Means for Investors If Solvery IG’s forecast comes true, Bitcoin would achieve more than a 50% increase compared to current levels. This presents significant opportunities for long-term investors. However, experts advise exercising caution, diversifying risks, and avoiding allocating all funds to a single asset. Cryptocurrencies remain high-risk instruments, and successful investing requires a deep understanding of the market and a realistic assessment of all potential scenarios. Conclusion Solvery IG’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $105,000 by May 10, 2025, sounds promising, especially given the positive momentum in recent months. However, investors should always remember: high returns come with high risks.

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The Gold-Silver Ratio Explained COMEX: Micro Gold Futures ( COMEX_MINI:MGC1! ), Micro Silver Futures ( COMEX_MINI:SIL1! ) The Gold-Silver Ratio is a financial term that measures the relative value of gold to silver. Specifically, how many ounces of silver it takes to buy one ounce of gold. The Gold-Silver Ratio is an important tool for traders and investors. It has been used to indicate the market sentiment towards these two precious metals. A high ratio suggests that gold is more valued than silver, often seen during economic turmoil or when investors seek safe-haven assets. On the contrary, a lower ratio implies that silver is gaining value relative to gold, which normally occurs during periods of economic growth and strong industrial demand. The ratio fluctuates over time due to supply and demand dynamics, geopolitical events, and changes in the global economy. By analyzing the ratio, traders can make informed decisions about when to buy or sell. This ratio reflects not only the market’s valuation of these metals but also an instrument for profit-making in the commodities market. Historical Gold to Silver Ratio Since 2000, the Gold-Silver Ratio has seen considerable fluctuations, reflecting various economic and market conditions. In the first decade of the 21st century, the ratio hovered around 65:1, meaning it took 65 ounces of silver to buy one ounce of gold. However, the ratio has spiked during times of economic uncertainty. For example, during the financial crisis of 2008, the ratio reached highs not seen in decades. More recently, in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic and the ensuing economic turmoil, the ratio surged, at one point exceeding 110:1 in 2020, indicating a strong preference for gold as a safe-haven asset compared to silver. Over time, the Gold-Silver Ratio has been trending up, meaning gold has gained value at a faster pace compared to silver. As of last Friday, gold is trading around all-time high at $3,330, while silver is quoted at $33.0. This makes the Gold-Silver Ratio almost exactly at 100. When to Buy and Sell based on the Gold-Silver Ratio? The decision to buy or sell the ratio hinges on interpreting its current value in the context of historical trends and market conditions. When to Buy Silver: A high Gold-Silver Ratio, typically at or above the 90:1 mark, suggests that silver is undervalued relative to gold. This is often interpreted as a buying signal for silver. In such scenarios, silver is cheaper than gold, and investors may see it as an opportunity to purchase silver at a relatively low price. The rationale is that if the ratio decreases, the relative value of silver will increase compared to gold, potentially leading to significant gains. When to Sell Silver/Buy Gold: Conversely, when the Gold-Silver Ratio is low, say around 50:1, it indicates that silver is relatively expensive, or gold is undervalued. In such situations, investors might consider selling silver and buying gold. The expectation is that the ratio will normalize or increase, meaning that gold’s value could rise relative to silver, offering a favorable return on the gold investment. The Gold-Silver Ratio can be a valuable indicator of when to buy or sell gold and silver. However, since the ratio is not stable but upward trending over time, we could not use a mean-reversion strategy. The price band for normal, high and low ranges should be updated regularly. Trade Setup with Micro Gold and Silver Traders could deploy the Gold-Silver Ratio trading strategy using COMEX Micro Gold Futures ( AMEX:MGC ) and Micro Silver Futures ( AMEX:SIL ). The big advantages of using futures contracts are capital efficiency and leverage. MGC contracts have a notional value of 10 troy ounces of gold. With Friday settlement price of $3,330.7, each June contract (MGCM5) has a notional value of $33,307. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $1,500 at the time of writing. By putting a deposit equivalent to less than 0.5 ounce, traders could gain the full exposure to 10 ounces of gold. If gold prices move up by 5%, a long futures position would double in value (= (33307*0.05) / 1500 = 111%). This futures contract has a built-in leverage of 22:1. Conversely, Micro Silver (SIL) contracts have a notional value of 1,000 troy ounces of silver. With Friday settlement price of $33.02, each June contract (SILM5) has a notional value of $33,020. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $3,000 at the time of writing. By putting a deposit equivalent to 91 ounces, traders could gain the full exposure of 1,000 ounces of silver. If silver prices move up by 5%, a long position in Micro Silver futures would gain 55% (= (33020*0.05) / 3000). This futures contract has a built-in leverage of 11:1. Micro gold futures (MGC, 10 oz) contracts tap into the deep liquidity of standard-size gold futures contracts (GC, 100 oz). As of last Friday, GC has an open interest (OI) of 447,356 contracts, while the OI for MGC is 44,449, according to data from CME Group. The OI for standard Silver Futures (SI, 5000 oz) and Micro Silver Futures (SIL, 1000 oz) are 154,276 and 12,345, respectively. Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com

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by JimHuangChicago

Why does it always go against you? You might be new to trading, you may have several years of experience. But, where a lot of people still seem to go wrong is in not realising the relationships. I have posted hundreds of educational posts here on Tradingview from cartoons, trying to simplify techniques through to market relationships between technical systems such as Elliott Wave and Wyckoff. Many new traders fall foul of social media posts covering "SMC - Smart Money Concepts" and are not seasoned enough to appreciate what or why these can work for some and not for others. You have Elliott Wave traders, there is a saying along the lines of "if you put 10 Elliott traders in a room searching for a wave count you will come out with 11 different answers" This isn't to say Elliott doesn't work, nor Smart Money. The market seeks liquidity, it forms seemingly complex patterns that humans try to make sense of. We are great at that, seeing patterns even if they are not there. - Look, there's an upside-down butterfly 1.618 extension! First, you need to appreciate Elliott Wave counts on smaller timeframe are pointless, especially in the age of algo's and bots. However, sentiment on the larger timeframes can't really be spoofed. In this first image; you can see a market wave that is straight out of a textbook. Let's also add some Wyckoff; if you were to visualise this - Wyckoff schematics would be visible on smaller timeframes, the Green boxes represent accumulation and the Red show distribution. Let's overlay and Elliott Wave count - Take that to the next level, this count is only part of a higher fractal count. How does this fit into smart money concepts? well, it's more like - How does Smart Money fit into this? Elliott waves and Wyckoff have been around for over 100 years. Many of the techniques shown on YT video's today can be traced back to these older concepts. Now, if you can see how a 1-2 EW count pushes up for a 3. You can zoom in again and start to see what to expect when trading using SMC. In this image you can see a drop, then a gap as price pushes back up (I haven't bothered drawing wicks for simplicity assume their inside the box) Many traders would now anticipate a move that looks something like this. Only to see price do this Yeah - you're not the only one! The next issue is where and how Supply and Demand is drawn. Ok, the gap didn't hold, it must be the demand level there. GO AGAIN!!! How did that play out? Trade 1, Trade 2 = What about now? Price holds the support This time you are afraid to go in. Then one of two things happens. 1) Or 2) In the first image, we can see a sweep of prior liquidity and that creates momentum for a move up. In the second image, price simply melts away. This is an easy fix. It all comes down to understanding what the charts are trying to tell you. People love to talk about how "Smart Money" is the banks and institutional players - how they are playing against you on every click of the button. The truth is, most people don't understand the market. When larger players enter the market, the can leave a pretty obvious footprint. In addition to that - they leave behind orders they had but were unable to fill. These orders they will be defended with even more buying or selling (if they need to), and this is the premise for a rally and pullback or a drop to pullback. Now, visualise a 1-2 Elliott Wave move. Why do you think 2 often comes back so deep? What would you expect the move from 2-3 to do? Powerful push, yes? In this image, the move that created demand is simply the opposing colour candle before the power play. The significant move pushed up (showing institutional involvement). Hence, a location they will likely defend. In addition to the push up, they pushed with so much money - it created a natural gap. This type of example doesn't always have to be a power play 1-5 up, it could be visualised on pullback moves too. Here's a great example recently on Euro. The demand candle 'buy before the sell" is clearly targeted on the way up. Price fails to close above it, drops, goes back to retest - sweeps and drops. If you were to zoom in you will see on smaller timeframes evidence of a Wyckoff schematic with a UTAD. Add a volume profile there. As the price breaks above, after it's pullback you can see an acceleration in price and of course the area has the PoC. Back to where people go wrong. They will see this GAP created and assume price will come back here to reject and go. However, look closer and the demand that started the move is very near that gap. Where is the juicy liquidity? PoC is another little clue. Let's take this to another level. In this image I have a range, using the prior high just to give the example in this post. We are in an uptrend = we just broke the high, we expect a Pullback. Where would that likely target? Zoom in again. This time I have added a fixed range volume tool. What do you know?! Anyways, once you get a handle on the bigger picture and understand the relationships, you can zoom into any timeframe you like - the game is always the same. Have a great week all! Disclaimer This idea does not constitute as financial advice. It is for educational purposes only, our principal trader has over 25 years' experience in stocks, ETF's, and Forex. Hence each trade setup might have different hold times, entry or exit conditions, and will vary from the post/idea shared here. You can use the information from this post to make your own trading plan for the instrument discussed. Trading carries a risk; a high percentage of retail traders lose money. Please keep this in mind when entering any trade. Stay safe.

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by Mayfair_Ventures

Have Right Tools and Right Structure Hi there, Some insights on the recent movement of XRPUSDT. It recently broke through two key support trendlines, creating lows that line up with the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level. This area has significant importance, especially when considering the lower point at 2.2404. The bullish RSI suggests we might see a positive price movement soon. However, it's essential to recognize that while we're anticipating a bullish trend, we need more confirmation. We’ve identified 2.2404 as a significant low, supported by multiple indicators, but we should also validate this level using higher timeframes to ensure we have a solid structure behind it. Measuring probabilities against the inherent randomness of the market, along with keeping an eye on the market calendar, is crucial. It's important to have clear definitions for the concepts you trade. Jumping into live trades without clarity can lead to confusion, mixing varying strategies like change of character (choch), liquidity, and price action coming all together as a confusing mess. Remember, trading isn’t about shifting from one strategy to another. It’s about understanding how the market behaves at price lows and highs and aligning that movement with the concepts that work best for you. So, it’s all about interpretation. The tools must allow you to see clearly without straining to understand what the market might be doing. The structure must also be clear. This means breaking previous highs and breaking previous lows, each followed by measurable retests, respectively. Stay sharp and trade smart Khiwe.

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The Hidden Power of the Silver Bullet Strategy - Full Guide Introduction The Silver Bullet Strategy is a high-probability intraday trading technique popularized within the Smart Money Concepts community. It focuses on taking precision trades during specific times of the day when liquidity is most active. Mastering this strategy can help traders consistently capture high-quality setups with minimal risk. In this guide, we will cover: - What the Silver Bullet Strategy is - Key Times to Watch - Entry Models - Target Setting - Risk Management - Real Chart Examples --- What is the Silver Bullet Strategy? The Silver Bullet Strategy is based on trading within a "window" of high-probability price action, typically during key liquidity times. It looks to capture moves after liquidity sweeps, order block mitigations, and Fair Value Gap (FVG) plays. Key Principles: - Focuses on high-probability windows (New York session especially) - Waits for a liquidity grab and displacement - Entries are often on FVGs, OBs, or MSS points --- Silver Bullet Timing Windows Timing is crucial to this strategy. The "Silver Bullet" typically occurs in these windows (New York time): - First Window: 10:00 AM - 11:00 AM (New York) - Second Window: 2:00 PM - 3:00 PM (New York) These times capture major moves post-liquidity sweeps or reversals after news/market manipulation. --- Silver Bullet Entry Model The classic sequence for a Silver Bullet setup: 1. Identify Liquidity Sweep: Look for price to grab liquidity above a swing high or below a swing low. 2. Look for Displacement: A strong move away from the sweep, creating a Fair Value Gap (FVG) or Breaker Block. 3. Entry in FVG or OB: Enter on a retracement into the FVG or Order Block after displacement. 4. Confirmation: Use lower timeframe MSS or BOS to confirm the reversal. Liquidity sweep and FVG at the 5m: MSS + Displacement candle at the 1m: So all 4 steps completed! Example Entry Checklist: - Liquidity sweep - Strong displacement creating an FVG - Price retraces into FVG or OB - MSS/BOS confirmation - Execute trade with tight stop-loss --- Where to Set Targets Targets should be logical based on market structure: - First Target: Recent internal liquidity (equal highs/lows) - Second Target: External liquidity zones (major swing highs/lows) - Optional: Use 1R/2R/3R scaling based on risk-to-reward goals --- Risk Management for Silver Bullet Trades Golden Rules: - Risk less than 1% per Silver Bullet setup - Set stop-loss beyond the liquidity sweep (not too tight, not too loose) or above FVG candle - Stick to one or two trades per window maximum - Avoid revenge trading outside the windows --- Common Mistakes to Avoid - Trading outside the specified time windows - Entering without a confirmed sweep and displacement - Overleveraging because the strategy "looks easy" - Ignoring higher timeframe bias (HTF context is still critical!) Pro Tip: Combine Silver Bullet entries with SMT Divergences, MSS, and IFVGs for maximum confluence. --- Final Thoughts The Silver Bullet Strategy is one of the cleanest ways to approach intraday trading. By mastering liquidity concepts, timing, and precision entries, traders can catch powerful moves with strong risk-to-reward setups. Be patient, wait for your window, and always trade with discipline. Happy Sniping!

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Peace Headlines Are Here — But Markets Have Already Moved On A Russia-Ukraine peace deal making headlines right now is historic news — politically and emotionally. But for the forex and commodities markets? The real money already left this story behind months ago. 🧠 Smart Money Knows: Markets Price in the Future, Not the Past Two years ago, the war sent shockwaves through oil, gas, wheat, and risk currencies. By late 2023, price action had already normalized — the "war premium" faded out quietly. Commodities stabilized. Forex volatility shifted. Safe havens lost their edge. Traders adapted, recalibrated, and moved on to new battlegrounds. Bottom Line: The market already priced in a future where this conflict would eventually fade — peace or no peace. 📊 What Actually Drives Forex Now While peace headlines grab attention, the real macro drivers today are: 🔥 Tariff escalation and global trade wars 🔥 Sticky inflation battles (core services inflation still high) 🔥 Central bank pivot games (Fed, ECB, BoJ) 🔥 Global growth fears (China slowdown, EU stagnation) This is where new money is flowing. Not into a two-year-old headline finally catching up. 🛡️ "Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact" in Action For two years, markets have priced in an eventual end (or fade) to the Ukraine conflict. A peace agreement now? → It confirms expectations, not shocks them. → It may trigger a short-lived risk-on pop (EUR, AUD, NZD up, gold down) — → But unless it unleashes massive new money flows (unlikely), that pop gets sold. 🔥 Final Thought: If you're still trading the last war, you're already late. The next major moves won't come from peace headlines — they'll come from tariff escalations, inflation battles, and central bank pivots. Focus forward. That's where opportunity lives. 💬 Question for Serious Traders: Which macro theme are you really watching into summer 2025? Peace headlines... or the new fires already burning? Drop your insights below. 👇

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How can beginners use ETFs to catch the next 10× quickly?Introduction to Crypto ETFs How Crypto ETFs Work? Future Candidates for ETF Inclusion Advantages of Crypto ETF Listing Hello✌ Spend 3 minutes ⏰ reading this educational material. The main points are summarized in 3 clear lines at the end 📋 This will help you level up your understanding of the market 📊 and Bitcoin💰. 🎯 Analytical Insight on Bitcoin: A Personal Perspective: Bitcoin is currently approaching three strong daily support zones, which perfectly align with key Fibonacci support levels. Based on this setup, I anticipate at least another 6% move to the upside, targeting the 99,700 level — very close to the major daily and psychological resistance at 100K.📈 Now, let's dive into the educational section , which builds upon last week's lesson (linked in the tags of this analysis). Many of you have been eagerly waiting for this, as I have received multiple messages about it on Telegram. Introduction to Crypto ETFs 📈 In the rapidly evolving world of digital assets, Crypto ETFs (Exchange-Traded Funds) provide a bridge between traditional finance and cryptocurrencies. They allow investors to gain exposure to assets like Bitcoin, Ethereum, and a basket of other cryptocurrencies through regulated stock exchanges, without the need for direct ownership or private wallet management. How They Actually Work 🔍 Instead of holding company shares, a Crypto ETF holds cryptocurrencies or crypto-related assets. You’re tracking coins like BTC and ETH the same way you’d track the S&P 500, but without direct crypto ownership headaches. Why Crypto ETFs Are a Big Deal 📈 They make crypto accessible to everyday investors, offer easy diversification across multiple coins, and skip the risk of managing private keys. Great for both beginners and institutions looking for safer exposure. What’s Inside a Crypto ETF? 🛒 Top picks usually include Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), and Litecoin (LTC). Some ETFs even mix in other favorites like Cardano (ADA) and Chainlink (LINK) to broaden the basket. Future Coins That Could Join the Party 🎉 Beyond BTC and ETH, expect to see DeFi giants like Uniswap (UNI) and Aave (AAVE) show up in future ETFs. Even stablecoins like USDC could sneak in to balance out volatility. What Makes a Coin ETF-Ready? 🧠 It needs high liquidity, broad investor trust, strong security backing, and, most importantly, regulator approval. Only coins that tick all these boxes are likely to be considered. Examples You Should Know 🏛️ Purpose Bitcoin ETF (Canada), Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), and ProShares Bitcoin Strategy ETF (BITO) are a few leaders. They open crypto markets to a whole new class of investors. Why Being in an ETF Matters 🌟 Landing inside an ETF boosts a crypto project’s credibility, liquidity, and investor demand. It’s almost like getting a stamp of approval from the traditional finance world. Not Always Smooth Sailing 🌊 Regulations are still tricky. Compliance isn’t easy. Some coins might not make the cut due to legal hurdles or operational risks. It’s a selective process for a reason. Final Thoughts: Crypto ETFs Are Just Getting Started 🌐 Crypto ETFs are reshaping the market, creating new bridges between blockchain and Wall Street. As more projects mature and regulations catch up, ETFs could become a dominant force in crypto investing. However , this analysis should be seen as a personal viewpoint, not as financial advice ⚠️. The crypto market carries high risks 📉, so always conduct your own research before making investment decisions. That being said, please take note of the disclaimer section at the bottom of each post for further details 📜✅. 🧨 Our team's main opinion is: 🧨 Crypto ETFs let you invest in Bitcoin, Ethereum, and other coins through regular stock markets, no wallets needed. 🚀 They make crypto investing safer, easier, and more accessible, while giving you diversified exposure. Top coins like BTC, ETH, and even DeFi tokens are in — but only if they’re liquid, trusted, and regulator-approved. 📈 ETFs boost a crypto’s credibility, liquidity, and adoption, though regulation hurdles still exist. 🌐 Overall, Crypto ETFs are a game-changer, connecting traditional finance with the world of digital assets! 🔥 Give me some energy !! ✨We invest countless hours researching opportunities and crafting valuable ideas. Your support means the world to us! If you have any questions, feel free to drop them in the comment box. Cheers, Mad Whale. 🐋

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From Financial Markets to Pope Francis' Funeral From Easter to April 28, 2025, financial markets have been in a period of great turbulence, influenced by economic, geopolitical and social events. The Forex market, in particular, has reacted to central bank decisions, commodity fluctuations, global trade tensions and the major event of Pope Francis' funeral, which has seen the participation of world leaders and talks that could have a lasting impact on international relations. This article offers an in-depth analysis of the key events of these weeks. 1. Monetary Policies and Forex Markets The decisions of major central banks have dominated the movements of currency markets. The Federal Reserve, in an attempt to balance recession and inflation risks, has decided to keep interest rates unchanged. This approach has caused a temporary weakness in the US dollar, prompting many traders to move towards more stable currencies such as the euro and the pound. In Europe, the European Central Bank took a more hawkish stance, hinting at a possible tightening of monetary policy to combat inflation. This move boosted the euro, which posted significant gains against major currencies. The Bank of Japan, on the other hand, continued its ultra-accommodative policy, causing the yen to weaken further. Traders then showed a preference for the dollar and the euro over the Japanese currency. 2. Commodity Prices and Impact on Related Currencies The commodity market saw significant movements. Oil prices fell, influenced by a rise in inventories in the United States and weak global demand. This trend penalized currencies that are highly correlated to commodities, such as the Canadian dollar (CAD) and the Australian dollar (AUD). On the other hand, gold continued to gradually increase, with investors choosing it as a safe haven in a context of economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Gold’s strength had an indirect impact on currencies tied to the precious metal. 3. Geopolitics and Conversations During Pope Francis’ Funeral The funeral of Pope Francis, held on April 26, 2025 in Rome, was a crucial moment for global diplomacy. The participation of world leaders allowed for significant discussions: Meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky: During the ceremony, a possible peaceful solution to the conflict in Ukraine was discussed. The opening to a ceasefire represents a real possibility for stability in the region. Statement by Vladimir Putin: The Russian president expressed Russia’s willingness to negotiate without preconditions, a signal that could positively influence global tensions. Focus on dialogue and peace: The funeral itself emphasized the importance of building bridges between nations, a central message of Pope Francis’ pontificate. These talks, if followed up with concrete actions, could have long-term effects not only on geopolitical relations, but also on investor confidence and, consequently, on financial markets. 4. Economic Data and Influence on Forex Markets Economic data released during this period played a central role in the movements of the Forex market: United States: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) showed a slowdown, suggesting that inflationary pressure could ease. This fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve could cut interest rates in the coming months. Eurozone: Inflation exceeded expectations, strengthening the euro and increasing the likelihood that the ECB will adopt further monetary tightening measures. Fluctuations in economic data caused greater volatility in the Forex market, offering opportunities and risks for traders. 5. Implications for the Future Looking ahead, investors should carefully monitor geopolitical developments stemming from Pope Francis’ funeral talks, central bank decisions, and key economic data. The combination of these factors could continue to generate volatility in currency markets, making FX a dynamic and complex space for the coming months.

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by Andrea_Russo_SwipeUP

Crypto Psychology episode 3 : Why Pumps are shorter than Dumps ?If you've spent even a little time in crypto, you've probably noticed that prices tend to soar fast... but crash even faster. There’s actually some very real reasons behind why pumps are usually shorter than dumps. Let’s break it down: Pumping Takes a Ton of Money — and Big Risk Unlike what many think, pumping a coin’s price isn’t free. Market makers and whales have to inject huge amounts of money to drive prices up. That's a big risk, especially in the crypto world where projects can be shaky and unpredictable. They’re not going to keep risking millions for too long — the higher the price, the harder (and scarier) it gets to keep it flying. Fear of Inflation Kills the Party Fast One of the big reasons dumps hit so hard is fear — specifically fear that the project will start " printing more coins " or distributing tokens like candy. If people sense that inflation is coming, they rush for the exit. It doesn't matter how much money was pumped in ; no amount can fight against the fear of endless supply. Too Many Longs? Time for a Harsh Correction As the price pumps, more and more traders jump into long positions, betting the price will keep going up. For market makers, this becomes dangerous: if everyone is winning, they're losing. So to protect themselves, they often trigger a sharp correction to liquidate a bunch of longs and reset the market. Better to rip the bandage off quickly than let risk pile up. Longs Are Always the Majority In crypto, especially during pumps, long positions always outnumber shorts. People naturally get greedy — everyone wants to ride the rocket. But the more longs that build up, the more unstable the market becomes. This imbalance is part of why dumps are so sharp and brutal: it’s a giant, messy unwinding of overly optimistic bets. Whales Use the Hype to Dump Fast When a coin is pumping, retail traders get hyped — and whales see an opportunity. They start offloading their coins to eager buyers at higher prices. If they tried to do it slowly, the price would collapse before they finish selling. So they dump fast and hard, using the excitement against retail. It's ruthless, but it’s just how the game is played. BINANCE:DOGEUSDT BINANCE:ADAUSDT BINANCE:XRPUSDT BINANCE:SOLUSDT BITSTAMP:BTCUSD

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Is the Crypto Market Broken ?It’s no secret — the crypto world isn’t what it used to be. A few years ago, it felt like an open frontier where anyone could jump in and strike gold. Today, the crypto space has changed dramatically. The market has become much more competitive , and the days of easy wins are largely behind us. One of the biggest issues is manipulation. The crypto market is now heavily influenced by " whales who hold massive amounts of coins and have the power to move prices with a single trade. They can trigger panic selling or hype buying, all while positioning themselves to profit, often at the expense of smaller investors. And that brings us to another hard truth: money in crypto tends to flow from the many to the few . Inexperienced and poorly informed traders often get caught up in hype or fear , making emotional decisions. Meanwhile, wealthy investors use strategy, patience, and insider knowledge to grow their holdings. In short, while the crypto market isn’t necessarily “broken,” it’s definitely no longer a level playing field. If you’re thinking of jumping in, it’s more important than ever to stay educated, cautious, and aware of the forces at play. BITSTAMP:BTCUSD COINBASE:BTCUSDT CRYPTOCAP:BTC.D CRYPTOCAP:TOTAL CRYPTOCAP:BTC

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MEME: HOW THE HUMAN BRAIN WORKS Super in-depth infographic detailing how the human brain works. Crypto People TOO! 🤣🤣🤣🤣 You can right-click the image below and select "Save As..." to download and share it with your friends. Have FUN!

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Select market data provided by ICE Data services. Select reference data provided by FactSet. Copyright © 2025 FactSet Research Systems Inc.© 2025 TradingView, Inc.

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