Deutsche Bank thinks markets may be underestimating the risk of a trade war between the US and Canada.
In its analysis, the bank suggests that USD/CAD could rise to "at least" 1.53, with the potential to test the 2002 all-time high of 1.61. A trade war could push Canada into a recession, prompting the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates to as low as 1.50%,...
The US dollar remains strong despite recent sell-off attempts. Uncertainty around President Trump’s tariff policies continues to influence market sentiment. Trump's announcement of plans to impose 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico by February 1 has attracted significant attention. The Canadian dollar has dropped to a multi-year low, with USD/CAD trading above 1.45...
Central bank decisions this week are poised to affect currencies, stocks, and bonds. Here’s what’s happening over the next 7 days:
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled for January 23-24, 2025. The yen rose against the dollar on Tuesday as traders anticipated a ~90% chance of an interest rate hike despite tariff concerns tied to Donald...
The dollar index dropped nearly 1% to 108.3 following the inauguration speech of President Trump, as the President did not confirm the implementation of immediate tariffs on day one, as previously pledged.
Bitcoin surged over 5% to reach a record high of $109,000 ahead of President Trump's inauguration. However, a newly released document from the Trump...
Inauguration Week: Opportunities in Stocks, Forex, and Crypto
Trump’s inauguration on January 20, 2025, marks the start of a new chapter for markets, with potential volatility from incoming executive orders.
Cryptocurrency
On January 17, 2025, Donald Trump surprised the industry by launching a meme cryptocurrency, $TRUMP, which has already reached a...
The Bank of Japan (BoJ) will hold its first policy meeting of the year next week, with markets pricing in a 90% likelihood of a rate hike on January 24.
Last year, BoJ rate hikes contributed to the Yen carry trade unwind in early August, coinciding with Bitcoin’s decline to $49,000.
This week, the Japanese yen strengthened toward 155.5 per dollar, its highest...
The US dollar is lower across the board, taking hits from news of a less aggressive Trump tariff plan and softer US producer prices.
The Yen has found additional demand after the Bank of Japan Governor made hawkish comments, leaving the door open for another BOJ rate hike as early as this month.
In the UK, softer inflation data prevented the pound from...
The self-styled crypto Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20 could trigger a major Bitcoin rally, with rumors of executive orders aimed at boosting the crypto sector.
Bitcoin is approaching the $100,000 mark after rising over 2% in the last 24 hours.
Some analysts also believe government support could reduce the reputational risk for public...
Swiss franc to outshine euro and pound?
The recent strengthening of the U.S. dollar could present both opportunities and challenges for European currencies.
In a note to clients on Monday, George Saravelos, Deutsche Bank's global head of FX research, expressed a bearish outlook on both the euro and the British pound. However, he was optimistic about the Swiss...
Analytics firm Glassnode has issued a warning that Bitcoin is possible nearing the end of its bull market.
Glassnode is monitoring Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) cost basis, a key metric representing the average acquisition price of BTC held for less than 155 days. Historical data suggests that Bitcoin usually transitions into bearish territory when its price...
Deutsche Bank FX strategist Vice President Shreyas Gopal has shifted to a bearish stance on the British pound.
The pound fell nearly 2% against a strong US dollar last week, hitting a 14-month low of $1.2200. Unlike the dip in November 2024, following the UK budget, Gopal does not see this decline as a buying opportunity. "We favor selling GBP against a basket...
The GBPUSD has fallen to levels last seen in November 2023, driven by surging UK borrowing costs. The yield on the UK 10-year gilt has surged to its highest level since the 2008 global financial crisis.
Although U.S. tariff policy announcements have had some influence, the rise in UK bond yields is largely attributed to domestic factors. Conservative MPs have...
Bitcoin appears to be moving in tandem with US tech stocks, posting falls and recoveries along a similar timeline.
The 92K level has now been tested on six separate occasions since price first exceeded $100,000, suggesting a potential base. Some market participants believe that further clarity on political factors—including Trump-related issues, tariffs, and a...
Gold surged by over $20 amid reports of China continuing to accumulate reserves and uncertainty around President-elect Donald Trump’s conflicting signals and tariff policies.
However, the metal has since retraced some of those gains following the release of the latest U.S. job openings data, which hit a six-month high at 8.098 million. Currently, Gold remains up...
We suspected it might be the case, and as post-holiday trading conditions resume, we're seeing a reversal of flow with healthy profit-taking on long US dollar exposure. A story from the Washington Post is also gaining attention and potentially factoring into the flow. It was reported that President-elect Trump may be considering a universal tariff plan, less...
Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is reportedly expected to announce his resignation this week, with Reuters suggesting the announcement could come as early as today.
Trudeau's departure would leave the Liberal Party without a permanent leader, as polls indicate the party is at risk of a significant loss to the opposition Conservatives in an election...
The commodity block currencies have been hit hard of late and are once again extending declines to multi-month lows against the US dollar. We're seeing clear divergence in monetary policy outlooks with deteriorating economic data in Australia, New Zealand, and Canada weighing on the respective currencies, while the added risk of trade wars only makes things that...
UBS forecasts gold prices to reach $2,900/oz by the end of 2025, driven by central bank demand, increased investor interest, and a lower interest rate environment. UBS projects central bank purchases of 900 metric tons or more in 2025 as part of ongoing reserve diversification efforts.
From a technical perspective, the 100 and 200 weekly Simple Moving Averages...
