USD/CAD jumped nearly 900 pips on Monday after President Donald Trump announced he is “terminating” trade negotiations with Canada. But the surge didn’t stick. Within hours, the pair gave up most of its gains, slipping back below the 1.3700 breakout level.
There’s been no reversal from Trump — not yet. But price action suggests the market might be front-running...
The latest U.S. PCE report is set for release at 8:30am EDT, with both headline and core inflation expected at 0.1% month-on-month.
As the Fed’s preferred inflation measure, today’s figures could influence interest rate expectations. A stronger print may reduce the case for a July rate cut, while a softer result could add pressure on the U.S. dollar.
The...
The euro has reached its highest level since October 2021, driven in part by commitments from European leaders to increase NATO defence spending.
The swing factor for the euro dollar in the shorter term is the possibility of US rate cuts. Critical for this will be US inflation data, starting with tomorrow's PCE report. If tariffs fail to significantly lift...
“Don’t fix what isn’t broken” seems to be the Fed’s current stance. Two Fed officials made that clear over the last 24 hours.
Vice Chair for Supervision Michael Barr warned that tariffs could fuel inflation by lifting short-term expectations, triggering second-round effects, and making inflation more persistent.
New York Fed President John Williams echoed that...
After an initial 6% spike at the open, U.S. crude oil futures reversed sharply—falling into negative territory—as markets priced in the possibility that Iran's latest retaliation may be more symbolic than escalatory.
According to President Donald Trump, Iran gave advance notice before launching missiles at a U.S. base in Qatar, allowing defences to intercept the...
President Donald Trump has confirmed that the U.S., in coordination with Israel, has conducted three strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Will there be panic buying of WTI and Brent at the open?
In response, Iran’s parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme...
Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz during periods of heightened tension with the U.S., notably in 2011, 2018, and 2020. The Strait is considered the world’s most critical oil chokepoint, with nearly 20 million barrels passing through daily.
Several banks warn that a full closure could push crude prices above $120–$150 per barrel, or...
The yen didn't move all that much but did manage to post a 4-day low against the buck after the Bank of Japan maintained its interest rate as expected while planning to reduce bond purchases quarterly starting next fiscal year. BoJ Governor Ueda signaled potential rate hikes if economic and inflation forecasts held, but highlighted risks from U.S. tariffs,...
Goldman Sachs now expects the EUR/USD to hit 1.20 by the end of the year. While this prediction draws comparisons to the 2017 rally in the pair, Goldman notes a key difference. This time, the pricing reflects pessimism in the US dollar, rather than optimism in the euro.
Bank of America seemingly agrees and warns that even a “hawkish” dot plot at this week’s FOMC...
Markets may be underpricing Israel and Iran risk.
Despite continued fighting—including high-impact strikes and rising casualties—global equities moved higher to start the week.
U.S. indices led the advance, with the Nasdaq gaining 1.5%, followed by the S&P 500 and Dow. Earlier in the session, European and Asian markets also closed higher, with Germany’s DAX up...
A pack of central bank decisions is set to drive market direction this week, with the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) all scheduled to announce their latest interest rate decisions.
The Federal Reserve will, of course, take center stage.
Despite President Trump’s continued...
The US dollar has extended declines in the aftermath of Wednesday's softer US CPI print. Interestingly enough, the data has failed to inspire much confidence in risk assets—presumably due to distractions around the escalation in geopolitical tension in the Middle East.
President Trump's push for unilateral tariffs within two weeks ahead of the July 9th deadline...
Geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran might fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
A break above $3,403 might open the door for a test of the May high at $3,437. However, price action over the last two sessions potentially indicates that buyers are reluctant to drive spot prices above $3,400.
At the same time, analysts are suggesting that oil could climb toward...
Aside from a brief spike in April, EUR/USD has remained below 1.1500 for over three years.
Sellers again have had to defend the zone following the weaker-than-expected US CPI release. The main resistance zone potentially spans all the way up to 1.1573 (the April high).
Some indicators suggest potential room for further upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI)...
Overnight, dollar-yen reached an 8-day high but retreated after Bank of Japan Governor Ueda noted that Japan's inflation is still below the 2% target and the low policy rate limits economic stimulus options.
Meanwhile, the pound weakened as UK employment dropped by 109,000 in May—the largest decline in 5 years—with wage growth slowing to 5.2%, signalling...
Do technical signals show Bitcoin’s path to $130K?
Bitcoin briefly pushed above $110,000 for the second time this month, before pulling back slightly to trade around $109,500. The market consolidating just below the 61.8% Fibonacci extension level could be suggesting strong resistance is being tested near current levels.
Bitcoin remains within reach of its...
President Trump’s “Trump Accounts” proposal would give every American newborn a $1,000 investment account placed in a stock market index fund, managed by the child’s guardians. The plan is part of the Big Beautiful Bill and has support from CEOs including Nvidia’s Jensen Huang, who called it “a seed fund for America’s next generation.”
If passed, the plan could...
Despite believing the euro is currently overvalued, Bank of America prefers it to the US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
Bank of America thinks the EUR could be supported leading up to the NATO and EU summits (June 24-27) especially if defense spending is confirmed. German infrastructure spending might also be expected to support the euro.
The EUR/USD...
