US CPI came in as expected on Wednesday, which has kept markets mostly confined to tighter consolidation. The data confirms expectations for another rate cut from the Fed next week. However, it also introduces the possibility that the Fed might be less accommodative in 2025.
Elsewhere, the Australian dollar has been benefiting from a strong wave of demand after...
The EUR/USD is trading near a fresh monthly low around 1.0480. The European Central Bank delivered a widely expected 25-basis-point rate cut earlier in the day and downgraded its growth outlook, signaling weaker-than-anticipated economic performance.
Policymakers hinted at additional easing, with a 25-basis-point cut projected for each of the next two meetings....
This week, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is holding its final board meeting of the year to decide on the cash rate.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox.
Those anticipating a rate cut from the RBA might have to wait until next year...
The two biggest movers in the FX market on Wednesday have been the Yen and the Australian Dollar, both of which have come under significant pressure.
The Yen has been sold on reduced odds of a BoJ rate hike this month, following a local news article suggesting the central bank would likely prefer to wait and carefully assess developments in the U.S. economy and...
The euro remains under strain as French PM Michel Barnier faced a no-confidence vote over a divisive budget plan of tax hikes and spending cuts. The vote closed at 8:20 p.m. local time.
President Macron is expected to swiftly appoint a caretaker PM if Barnier’s government collapses, ahead of July elections.
Barnier warned that France’s debt burden—€60bn in...
Asia is where the drama in currency currently resides.
The Japanese yen found support today following South Korea's decision to declare martial law, prompting a flight to safety across markets. The South Korean won tumbled to ₩1,444 at one point, its lowest since October 2022 (now trades at ₩1,416).
Over the weekend, Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled...
When considering trends, it's important to understand that markets tend to move in measured steps.
Looking at the Bitcoin chart, the $69,000 high reached in 2021, followed by the low in 2022, represented a move of $53,540.
Now that Bitcoin has broken out to a new record high in 2024, we project a measured move extension of the same size—$53,540—which points to...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech will be a key event this week.
Three weeks ago, Powell was grilled about the economic implications of former President Trump's potential return to office, following the Fed's interest rate decision. A continuation of these discussions is expected on Wednesday.
Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic...
President-elect Donald Trump issued a sharp warning to BRICS nations over the weekend, urging them to "find another sucker" and threatening 100% tariffs on any efforts to create an alternative currency that challenges the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has been a prominent advocate for reducing...
The Australian Dollar found support following comments from Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Governor Michele Bullock, where she reiterated that inflation remains too high to consider interest rate cuts in the near term.
Currently, the AUD/USD pair is trading near 0.6500. However, the daily chart shows a lower high and lower low, indicating potential for further...
We're seeing more "sell the fact" action on the Trump trade and hearing a lot of talk about month-end dollar outflows.
This seems to be factoring into price action today, with the dollar down across the board.
Dollar weakness has been especially prominent against the yen, where speculation of a December BOJ rate hike is ramping up. The euro has also gained...
The New Zealand dollar staged an unexpected rally following the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's (RBNZ) latest interest rate decision. Analysts struggled to pinpoint a definitive hawkish signal in the central bank’s messaging.
Technical factors did support the rally, as NZD/USD broke above the 100- and 200-hour moving averages. However, sellers have tempered the...
Currencies are already in recovery mode.
After absorbing the news of President-elect Trump vowing to impose tariffs on China, Canada, and Mexico, even the Canadian dollar, which slumped to its lowest level since mid-2020 against the buck, has been trying to find some demand.
Bank of Canada Governor Mendez is on the docket today, and it will be interesting to see...
Selling the currency of the U.S.'s largest trading partner, the Mexican peso, could be one of the clearest Trump trades.
The Mexican peso slid over 2% on Tuesday, now trading above 20.8 per dollar for the first time since July 2022.
Posting on his Truth Social platform, Trump said one of his first executive orders will be to impose a 25% tariff on all products...
It seems financial markets are feeling more at ease following President-elect Trump's nomination of Scott Bessent as the next Treasury Secretary. Bessent has expressed a willingness to implement tariffs gradually to avoid shocking the market.
On the back of this, there has been renewed risk appetite and some mild profit-taking on Trump trade dollar long...
Gold (XAU/USD) plunged during Monday’s US session, dropping nearly 3.5% from its recent peak following reports from Axios that Israel and Hezbollah may have agreed to a ceasefire.
Gold has fallen below key technical levels, trading under its 200-, 100-, and 50-day Simple Moving Averages after recently peaking around $2,720.
Possibly adding to the downward...
State Street Global Advisors has voiced concern that the current cryptocurrency rally is diverting attention from gold. Despite the competition, gold posted its strongest weekly performance in almost 2 years.
Currently trading less than 3% below its October 30 peak, XAU/USD maintains an upward trajectory within an ascending channel on the 1-hour chart. The...
We'd like to take a moment to focus on the technical picture for the euro right now.
If we use EUR/USD as a proxy for direction in the FX market, the longer-term euro chart could provide valuable insights.
In recent weeks, the euro has come under intense pressure, with the single currency sinking to a fresh 2024 low and gravitating back towards the 2023 low...
