This week’s inflation data could be decisive for traders as markets weigh whether the Fed will cut rates by 25 or 50 basis points. Last week’s jobs report did not sway the market from its current consensus.
The US economy added 142,000 jobs in August 2024, falling short of the expected 160,000, based on the latest NFP data. According to the CME FedWatch Tool,...
Futures markets are pricing in a US rate cut for September, with a 62% chance of a 25-basis point cut and a 38% chance of 50-basis points. The Fed’s dovish shift has helped the euro surge to its highest level in more than a year.
Attention now shifts to the ECB’s 12 September rate decision. After cutting rates in June and pausing in July, analysts expect the ECB...
XAU/USD: Citi Sees 50bp Rate Cut After NFP
Citi anticipates the upcoming Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) report will show 125,000 new jobs, leading to a 50-basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve.
Citi suggested in a note to Clients on Tuesday that if payrolls come in between 125,000 - 175,000, a 50-basis point rate cut is likely from the Fed.
The 4H chart for...
Arif Husain, the head of fixed income at T. Rowe, is cautioning that volatility threatens the Japanese yen. Husain suggests that the yen carry trade has been unfairly blamed for what may actually be the onset of a larger, more complex trend. The Bank of Japan’s monetary tightening and its broader impact on global capital flows are intricate issues. A significant...
Volatile Week for USD/CAD?
The Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to lower rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate down to 4.25%. This expectation follows a recent CPI report that indicated further easing in core inflation, coupled with weaker labor market data.
While a 50-basis point cut seems unlikely, it can't be entirely dismissed....
Switzerland's Consumer Price Index (CPI) for August is forecast to show a year-over-year increase of 1.2%, down from 1.3% in July. On a month-over-month basis, CPI is expected to rise by 0.1%, rebounding from the prior month’s 0.2% decline.
The figures, due on Tuesday, come as Swiss National Bank (SNB) President Thomas Jordan recently acknowledged the challenges...
Next week’s job reports could be the decisive factor in determining the scale of the Federal Reserve’s rate cut in September.
Bank of America, among others, had initially forecast a 25-basis point cut next month. But recent developments have sparked discussions about the possibility of a larger 50 bps reduction, as economic conditions continue to evolve....
Can Gold’s Uptrend Survive Friday’s PCE Data?
Gold prices slipped over 0.7% on Wednesday as the U.S. dollar rebounded, setting the stage for a pivotal close to the month with key inflation data on the horizon.
Markets are bracing for the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. The PCE...
Stock Surge Leaving Bitcoin Behind?
The longstanding correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin took a hit today as the two markets diverged, signaling potential shifts in investor sentiment.
This breakdown could be a precursor to broader market volatility, particularly as Nvidia prepares to release its much-anticipated earnings report tomorrow.
Nvidia...
Gold extended its rally on Monday as mounting expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September fueled demand for the safe-haven asset. Powell gave the green light on interest rate cuts during his speech at Jackson Hole last Friday.
San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly echoed Powell, saying “It's hard to imagine anything could derail a September rate...
Jackson Hole Aftermath Sparks 25 or 50bps Debate
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell signaled a rate cut in September during his speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium last Friday. In response, the British pound surged over 1%, climbing above $1.322, its highest level since March 2022. Meanwhile, the USD/MXN dropped more than 2%, and the NZD/USD and AUD/USD pairs...
The euro surged to its highest level in a year yesterday, marking a fourth consecutive day of gains, before turning red.
This rally suggests growing market confidence that the eurozone may avoid a hard landing. Recent data supports this sentiment: final inflation figures for July show core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, holding steady...
R1 0.6799– 11 July high – Strong
R2 0.6753 – 21 August high– Medium
S1 0.6637 – 19 August low– Medium
S2 0.6563 – 15 August low – Strong
This week's RBA Minutes came out confirming the recent more hawkish leaning RBA decision. The central bank hinted at the fact that the cash rate would stay where it is for an extended period of time, while the...
The dollar is under pressure, with persistent selling pressure driving it to new yearly lows across several currencies, including the pound.
A recent revision of jobs data revealed that U.S. job growth was significantly weaker than initially reported, with 818,000 fewer jobs added (for the year ending March 2024). This huge downward adjustment, the largest since...
Does the USD/JPY Bounce Have More to Give?
Credit Agricole anticipates a potential rally in USD/JPY this week, hinging on market reactions to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming address at Jackson Hole. The bank suggests that traders might need to recalibrate their expectations for Fed rate cuts.
Current market sentiment, as reflected in the CME...
Investors will be watching a series of key Asian central bank decisions and inflation reports this week, as regional currencies rally to annual highs.
The Bank of Korea is set to announce its rate decision on Thursday, followed by inflation data from Japan and Singapore on Friday.
The U.S. dollar's slide resumed from last week, with markets embracing a risk-on...
Market sentiment is leaning towards three more rate cuts from the European Central Bank (ECB) this year, while economists are more cautious, expecting just two. Should the economists be correct, 2023’s high for the EUR/USD pair could be back in play.
The market's confidence in ECB rate cuts outpaces that in the Federal Reserve. The Fed, facing closer scrutiny,...
Traders will next hear from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell during his highly anticipated address at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. The key question hanging over the market: Will Powell use this speech to pave the way for a potential interest rate cut in September?
Scott Helfstein, head of investment strategy at Global X, argues that Powell should take...
