As expected, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) kept interest rates unchanged yesterday but did provide some surprises to the market; extending the timeline for a potential rate cut, and even noted its consideration of a rate hike. This unexpectedly hawkish stance sent the NZDUSD higher.
Before the announcement, markets saw an ~80% chance of a rate cut by...
Is a rate cut imminent? Watching incoming UK Inflation data
"The next move will be a cut," Bank of England's Andrew Bailey stated in response to a question about the Governors thoughts on interest rates during a speech at the London School of Economics. This does not mean the next decision will immediately be a cut; rather, rates will remain stable until a cut...
Gold maintains upward bias on Iran and Fed speak?
Gold surged at the beginning of the week due to escalating geopolitical tensions, reaching a new all-time high of $2,450. However, it has since retreated slightly but perhaps maintains an upward bias.
The rise in gold prices could have been fueled by news of the deaths of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and...
This week's trade could be a decision between gold and silver.
The former might be swayed by the seven fed officials that are planned to speak this week, while the latter could be influenced by the #SilverSqueeze movement that is tangentially related to the meme stock frenzy that reignited last week.
Gold Technical
Gold (XAU/USD) prices rose at the end of...
The major trading opportunities next week could be front-loaded, with significant events occurring from Monday to Wednesday.
USD
Seven Fed officials are scheduled to speak on Monday and Tuesday, followed by the release of the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.
AUD
The Reserve Bank of Australia will release the minutes from its latest interest rate...
The AUD/USD and NZD/USD are trending higher due to risk-on flows boosting these currency pairs.
For AUD/USD, on the downside, immediate support could lie at 0.6594, just above the 100 Daily Moving Average. The RSI is almost levelling off at around 80.
Westpac recently highlighted a bullish stance on AUD/USD:
“...there is no clear path to significantly higher...
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed reservations about the trajectory of disinflation in the US during his recent remarks, stating, "My confidence in that is not as high as it was." Despite this, he indicated that further rate hikes were unlikely based on the data from the first quarter of the year.
Powell's comments largely echoed those made during...
OpenAI has denied rumors claiming it's set to reveal an AI-powered search engine for its flagship chatbot, ChatGPT, on Monday.
Although there is speculation that OpenAI is being a bit of a wise guy, and the product it will demo is not a search engine, but what they might dub as the next generation of search engines.
It will be interesting to see if this...
We have seen 2 interventions from the BOJ over the past 2 weeks.
The first came when the USDJPY hit between 158.000 and 160.000 and the second when it hit almost 158.000.
With the BOJ warning that it is ready and willing to step in again, how smart is it to try to catch the ride down if or when the BOJ steps in again?
Finance Minister Shunich Suzuki...
The British Pound has seen a partial retreat against the USD ahead of the Bank of England's interest rate announcement.
It's widely anticipated that rates will remain steady at 5.25%. Consequently, attention is likely to be directed towards the voting split among the nine-member Monetary Policy Committee and the accompanying commentary, as these factors could...
Countdown to RBA rate decision
The nine members of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) are set announce its latest interest rate decision that could significantly impact the Australian dollar.
This comes amidst remarks from Warren Hogan, Chief Economic Advisor at Judo Bank, who suggests that the central bank might soon need to raise rates to over 5%, a...
Markets next move awaits Fed speeches this week
In April, the US economy saw a modest increase of 175,000 jobs, marking its slowest growth in six months, notably below market projections of 243,000 and a considerable drop from the robust 315,000 jobs added in March.
So, now we know the NFP data from last Friday, has this changed investors' outlook for fed...
Coming up: BOE's rate decision week
Morgan Stanley has asserted that the Bank of England might still opt for an interest rate cut in the coming week, a stance that stands out amidst dwindling market confidence in such a move. Morgan Stanley’s opinion diverges notably from the consensus, which suggests an initial rate cut by the BOE in September.
Backing Morgan...
Fed rules out rate hike. Will the RBA now do the same?
The US Federal Reserve maintained its policy rate within the 5.25%-5.50% range as anticipated. Notably, Fed Chair Powell, in the press conference, expressed that while the central bank remains vigilant about inflation risks, a hike is "unlikely" for the next move.
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA)...
On Monday, the yen dropped to 160.000 per dollar, marking its lowest level since 1990, before rebounding more than 3% to 154.5 per dollar. This rebound was suspected to be the result of intervention by Japanese authorities.
According to reports from Bloomberg, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) likely injected ¥5.5 trillion into the currency markets after discrepancies...
Why has the US dollar sunk in the lead up to the FOMC decision?
Bloomberg Economics says “We expect Powell to make a hawkish pivot” regarding the FOMC’s decision this Wednesday. Expectations for rate reductions have been pushed further into 2024.
So, why is the US dollar underperforming to start this week? And does this open up an even more attractive entry...
USD/JPY: Breaching 158.500 signals potential run to 160?
The JPY weakened below 158.200 against the dollar. It is the first time since May 1990 we have seen this exchange rate for the USD/JPY. The reason is being attributes to the Bank of Japan keeping interest rates unchanged last Friday.
With the USD/JPY comfortably above both the 50-day and 200-day EMAs, a...
Fed decision preview: Zero rate cuts and EURUSD parity in 2024?
Expectations point to the Federal Open Market Committee maintaining interest rates at their current levels in the upcoming decision slated for May 1. However, fixed income markets suggest the possibility of rate cuts surfacing in either the July or September meetings of the FOMC.
Nonetheless,...
