With both the election and an upcoming Fed meeting in focus, markets could face a surge in volatility this week.
According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders are placing a 99% probability on a quarter-point rate cut at the conclusion of the Fed’s policy meeting on Thursday, following a half-point cut in September.
After the rate decision, Fed Chair...
Momentum has swung back towards Harris over the weekend and this is having a clear impact on the dollar-bullish Trump trade.
The US dollar has sold off quite aggressively across the board though we haven't seen much impact in the world of equities where us equity futures are trading up ahead of the US open on Friday.
The US jobs report gave off some mixed...
Two major central bank decisions this week join the U.S. election as key events for markets, with interest rate reductions from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of England being considered.
The RBA will announce its decision Tuesday (local time), with economists polled by Reuters forecasting no change to the current 4.35% cash rate. Persistently robust...
Trump or Harris? Markets Awaits Outcome
This week, the U.S. presidential election will command everyone's attention.
Market watchers will be focused on a handful of pivotal swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Pennsylvania is potentially the most critical.
Yet, the results may not be...
Most of what we've been seeing in recent sessions has been Euro-supportive. Economic data out of the zone has been on the better side of expectations.
Inflation data is pointing up, and ECB speak has been decidedly less dovish.
Meanwhile, ECB President Lagarde has said she doesn't expect a Euro area recession in the months ahead.
Otherwise, the yen has been a...
Just days before the U.S. heads to the polls, the last employment report before Election Day will offer a snapshot of hiring and unemployment, key factors in a race where the economy remains top of mind for voters.
Ordinarily, monthly jobs data provides a clearer gauge of economic conditions. However, analysts project that last month’s hiring figures could be...
Currencies were attempting to run higher against the dollar earlier today.
Before giving back many of those gains as the North American market opened, the euro had benefited early on from a run of mostly supportive economic data and higher inflation rates.
Though with investor sentiment souring, there was a flow back towards the U.S. dollar.
U.S. employment...
HSBC foresees a brief rally in EUR/USD should Kamala Harris secure the U.S. presidency. However, the bank expects the rally to be a temporary knee-jerk reaction, with the pair resuming a downward trajectory.
A Donald Trump victory could have starker implications for EUR/USD, as Trump has pledged tariffs on Europe, reigniting fears of a renewed trade war....
It’s been relatively calm in traditional markets. Currencies are flat, stocks are steady, and commodities are consolidating.
Meanwhile, cryptocurrencies are heating up, with Bitcoin making a push back towards its record high from earlier this year.
Gold is holding just under record highs, and oil is consolidating after another sharp drop at the start of the...
Trump Trade & Japan Politics Push USDJPY Higher
Japan's ruling coalition losing its parliamentary majority in weekend elections is currently weighing on the Japanese yen.
Adding momentum to the dollar's strength, long-term U.S. Treasury yields continued their surge, despite the Federal Reserve’s recent 50-basis-point rate cut. Traders perhaps now see little...
The Canadian Dollar simply can't catch a break. Bank of Canada policy has turned increasingly dovish, all while the price of oil remains under pressure and Canada economic data deteriorates.
Oil prices have tumbled following Israel's strikes on Iran, which avoided crude facilities. This has led to a de-escalation of tensions in the Middle East.
Looking ahead,...
Americans continue to rank the economy as their top issue, and the final Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report before voting day, offers a crucial signal this coming Friday.
September saw a gain of 254,000 jobs, but forecasts point to a marked slowdown, with expectations hovering just above the 100,000 mark. The expected downturn stems from several factors, including...
We continue to see broad-based demand for the US dollar, though it's clear that most of the dollar strength of late has been against the Euro and the Yen. A new report has been making headlines, discussing a growing group of ECB members who think the central bank has fallen behind the curve on monetary easing.
We've also been hearing plenty of dovish talk from a...
Election 2024: Bitcoin to $80k?
The cryptocurrency market is turning downwards, in tandem with the broader stock market. This decline might be dashing hopes of BTC/USD breaking the $70,000 threshold.
Despite the bearish trend, options traders like the odds that Bitcoin could soar to $80,000 by the end of November, regardless of the outcome of the U.S....
On November 5, approximately 250 million Americans are expected to vote in the presidential election.
The outcome, though, may not be immediately clear. The official result could take anywhere from a few hours to several weeks, depending on the margin of victory and potential legal disputes.
UBS analysts caution that the election's outcome may not be known...
Japan is holding a snap election this Sunday, triggered by a scandal within the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), despite a general election not being due until late 2025.
The LDP, which has dominated Japanese politics for all but four of the last 65 years, has seen its popularity plummet. In June, its poll numbers hit their lowest point this century. ...
Russia will host the BRICS summit in Kazan from October 22-24, where President Vladimir Putin will push for a new SWIFT-like payment system to challenge US dollar dominance.
The group, comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa, has expanded to include Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran, and the UAE, with further expansion on the table as nations like Thailand...
USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week?
Canada’s central bank is set to announce its next rate decision on Oct. 23, with Canadian banks largely anticipating a 50-basis-point cut. A similar reduction is also expected at the BoC's final meeting of the year on Dec. 11.
For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets...
