US SPX 500 – technical overview
Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.
R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
R1...
It's a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation.
The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40%...
GBP/USD to Track 100-MA Slope?
On Wednesday, GBP/USD traders will focus on the UK's July Manufacturing and Services PMI, expected to show slight increases.
Although, more significant events will come from the U.S., including the annualized Q2 2024 GDP and the PCE Price Index.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge likely cooled in June, suggesting its efforts...
R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
S1 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium
S2 154.55 – 4 June low – Strong
USDJPY – fundamental overview
A large carry trade unwind via Aussie and Mexican Peso sales against the Yen, along with increased odds for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the month were behind the latest run of Yen demand....
NZDUSD – technical overview
Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this...
ETH/USD is expected to experience increased volatility this week, with spot Ethereum ETFs set to go live on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to finalize updates on the products today.
Ethereum ETFs follow the path of eleven trading spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have amassed over $54 billion in assets under...
3 Events to Watch: CrowdStrike, 25th Amendment, & US weather
CrowdStrike Oversold?
A widespread outage on Friday left computer screens blue, grounded flights, halted hotel check-ins, and disrupted freight deliveries, forcing businesses to revert to paper and pen.
The incident, allegedly triggered by an update from CrowdStrike (down ~12%), also affected...
Trade Alerts: SA Rates and BoC Decision
South African Inflation
South Africa is expected to maintain its key interest rates at 8.25% and 27.25% on Thursday, citing persistent inflationary pressures. Central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has emphasized that rate reductions are unlikely until inflation sustainably returns to the 4.5% midpoint of the target...
Political uncertainty in the U.S. could significantly impact the EUR/USD as markets brace for tomorrow’s ECB decision. The major political factor may not if President Biden steps down, but who steps up to take his place. Who will the markets like and who will they dislike? This could play out in the EUR/USD.
Biden has said he will reevaluate his candidacy if...
Trump, Fed Speculation Drive Gold to New Heights
Gold price cleared the May 20 high of $2450 on Tuesday, as expectations intensify that the U.S. Federal Reserve will commence an easing cycle in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the Economic Club of Washington this week, noting the economy's solid performance and signaling potential rate cuts once...
Earnings season kicks off: Key reports to watch
Earnings season kicks into high gear as Novartis, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Progressive, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Abbott, Blackstone, Reliance, and American Express, prepare to report their financial results.
Recent weeks have seen a rally in...
GBPUSD – technical overview
Signs have emerged of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base after collapsing to a record low in September 2022. The door is now open for the next major upside extension towards the 2023 high at 1.3143. Any setbacks should be well supported ahead of 1.2000.
R2 1.2894 – 8 March/2024 high – Strong
R1 1.2861 – 12 June high...
As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi engages with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow, the focus back home will shift to the latest inflation figures.
India has faced significant pressure from Western nations to distance itself from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine. However, New Delhi has maintained its ties with Moscow. A key factor in this...
NZDUSD – technical overview
Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this...
This week's economic calendar is dominated by US inflation data, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) set for release.
Expectations are for a further decline in inflation, potentially strengthening the case for multiple Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year. Economists polled by Reuters forecast annual consumer price...
The euro held steady at $1.0825 on Monday, recovering from a dip to $1.0815 as traders absorbed the surprising French election results, which saw a leftist alliance lead both the centrists and the right in the number of sets gained.
Key drivers for the EURUSD's next moves include Biden's potential resignation, upcoming bank earnings, Powell's testimony in...
France is on the brink of a hung parliament, with the left-wing coalition capturing the most seats in a stunning upset over Marine Le Pen’s National Rally.
Obviously, the forex markets are closed on the weekend. So will be interesting to see the reaction to these shock election results in France on the EUR/USD and EUR/GBP when the market opens. Regardless of...
Euro eyes French vote after pound's rally
The British pound surged above $1.276 on Thursday, reaching its highest level in three weeks, as voters across the United Kingdon headed to the polls for parliamentary elections.
The Labour Party, currently leading in the polls, appears poised to unseat Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's Conservative Party. Some projections...
