Japan's economy recently slid to the fourth-largest position, trailing Germany. This shift is primarily attributed to a weakened Japanese yen. In 2023, Japan's GDP stood at approximately $4.2 trillion, while Germany's was around $4.45 trillion.
The weakness in the Japanese yen is pressuring BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to address this by tightening Japan's ultra-easy...
$3K gold in 2024 according to Citi
Citi bank suggests that gold prices might experience a surge of up to 50%, reaching $3,000 per ounce this year.
This projection is based on two potential scenarios. The first involves a continuation of central banks, particularly those in emerging markets like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Brazil, increasing their gold...
On Tuesday, February 20, Canada will unveil the latest inflation data. It is anticipated that headline annual inflation will decrease to 3.2%, marking its first deceleration since October 2023, compared to December's figure of 3.4%. Bear in mind, the Bank of Canada's previously indicated that they expected inflation to persist near 3.5% until mid-2024. The...
Can AUD/USD claim more ground above 0.6500?
AUD/USD has been making a short-term comeback from its 2024 low, crossing the 0.6500 mark due to a weaker Dollar. But is its downtrend intact still, or are we seeing the start of a sustained turnaround?
Looking at the 4-hour chart, there are potential signs of a continued negative outlook, unless we see a break of...
Anticipation Builds for Bitcoin Halving Event
Bitcoin is currently holding strong above the $50,000 mark in anticipation for the event known as "the halving."
The Bitcoin halving is a regularly scheduled event that occurs approximately every four years, where the reward for miners is halved. Historical data indicates that after each halving event, Bitcoin’s...
Gold tumbles: Eyes on UK inflation next
The new numbers are in: Current market sentiment suggests a 79% chance in June and an even stronger expectation of a 92% chance for a cut in July.
The unexpectedly high US inflation figures have led to a reassessment of when the Federal Reserve might implement its initial rate cut.
The US dollar surged on this news,...
Preparing for markets to overreact to US inflation?
The week has started slowly in FX, largely attributed to the closure of most Asian markets for New Year holidays. But this quiet period is likely coming to an end, driven by the impending release of U.S. inflation data on Tuesday, followed by UK inflation data the following day.
Projections are for a decline...
NZ Economist's bold call opens opportunity in NZD?
Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ (the country’s largest retail bank), says the RBNZ may lift interest rates to 6% at its next meetings in February (27th) and April. Zollner accounts for 25 basis points in each meeting.
This could potentially open some targets to the upside in the NZD/USD, including a...
Bullish or bearish signs build in USD/JPY?
The USD/JPY surpassed a crucial resistance level at 148.650 on Thursday and hit its highest value since November 2023.
The obvious next step is of course to explore the 150.00 threshold. However, any incremental advance beyond this point should be eyed with caution and uncertainty. The Yen faced is facing pressure...
GBP/USD Alert: Next Week's Inflation Forecast
The week is relatively quiet, so we are looking ahead to next week’s major events. With UK and US inflation released one day apart, perhaps the GBP/USD is the pair to watch.
On February 14, U.S. inflation rate data is set to be released. Despite the diminishing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March, if...
Wolfe Research thinks NAS100 moves higher
Several mega-cap entities, including Meta and Nvidia, are propping up the Nasdaq 100, following Jerome Powell's 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, which has further diminished the likelihood of a March rate cut (currently below 20%, according to the Financial Times).
Potential support zones might materialize around the...
USD opportunity? Market overestimating March rate cut?
The market is only pricing in a 30% chance of a rate cut from the US Fed in March now. Is this probability too high still? Jerome Powell spoke after the latest FOMC decision yesterday and noted that it was unlikely that the Fed would be cutting rates in March.
Why is the market still pricing in a 30%...
Oil’s Tug-of-War: Iran Tensions vs. Evergrande
On Wednesday, WTI crude futures dropped below $77 per barrel, undoing a 1.4% increase from the prior session, all while the U.S. readies itself to address a lethal attack on its troops in the Middle East.
Perhaps traders are concerned more about the liquidation of China Evergrande, raising worries about the...
Gold forecast: Crazy to expect rate cut tomorrow?
Mostly yes. Market consensus leans towards the U.S. central bank maintaining current interest rates following the conclusion of its two-day meeting tomorrow. However, the potential impact on the U.S. dollar and gold is likely to hinge on statements from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding expectations for a rate...
First opportunity AUD/USD
Australian inflation data released Tuesday evening, might make the AUD/USD the most interesting pair to watch this week. This is because inflation will likely come in higher than 4.0% still.
Less than 24 hours later, we then have the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on Wednesday, which will be one of the most watched forex...
Gold rally unlikely after strong US GDP data?
The United States revealed a 3.3% annualized GDP for the three months ending in December earlier today, surpassing the market's 2.0% forecast.
The likelihood of an early-year Fed rate cut seems to have diminished even further now, helping curb weakness in the dollar. Given these market conditions, does a rally in...
Time to Brace for GDP (and USD) Downside Surprise?
This Thursday marks the release of the initial estimate for the fourth quarter of 2023 GDP in the United States. If predictions hold true, there will be a noticeable deceleration in economic growth, with the market anticipating an annualized growth rate of 2%, a significant drop from the previous quarter's...
AUD/USD Trade alert: Strong USD vs RBA's rate decision
Talk of a US$278 billion (1 trillion yuan) rescue package for Chinese shares might not be enough to support AUD/USD.
Countering this positive signal for the AUD is general US dollar strength, caused by a shift in the market regarding the likelihood of a March rate cut. At the turn of the year, it was priced...
