We are about 8 hours away from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision.
That decision is due on Tuesday at 2:30 pm (local Aussie time), a couple of hours before the country's biggest horse race, the Melbourne Cup ($8 million in prize money) is set to take place.
But perhaps the more exciting match ups will be occurring in the forex market....
Has the market adopted the term “hawkish pause” to bolster USD bids? It could be possible that, in an attempt to drag out USD strength just a little bit longer (euro has weakened –4.20% in past 6 months), the term Hawkish Pause has been thrown around with not-enough criticism.
Not many people have confidence in the US Fed to really make the hard decisions...
Investor flight to safety might provide a favorable outlook for the Swiss franc this week.
Swiss franc against the USD and GBP might be the most interesting considering the Fed and the Bank of England (BoE) hold their policy meetings this week, where they are both expected to keep rates exactly where they are. These pauses by the Fed and BoE might contrast too...
There are two weeks left until the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) decides whether to enact another rate hike (on November 7). And, yesterday’s Australia Consumer Price Index (CPI) might have made the trading in the lead up to this decision more interesting.
The CPI figures show a quarterly inflation increase of 1.2% and an annual increase of 5.4%, raising...
Will bearish bets on the Canadian dollar grow in the lead up to Wednesday? It is widely expected that the Canadian central bank will leave interest rates on hold during its meeting that concludes on this day (Although, it may be a hawkish hold as the Governor Tiff Macklem will mention that another hike is still on the table for the bank).
Perhaps piling on the...
Where does gold go if the Gaza war escalates and are downside targets for gold pointless to think about right now? Perhaps it is prudent to think about some short-term retracements, but it does appear that the war will escalate or at least tensions remain heightened for quite some time, which is bullish for gold.
The latest event that could escalate the Gaza war...
Fake news sent Bitcoin up about 10% on Monday, surging from $27,900 to over $30,000 after Crypto news site Cointelegraph posted on X that the Securities and Exchange Commission had approved BlackRock’s spot bitcoin ETF application.
In response to the rumor, BlackRock had to clarify that no decision had been made regarding their ETF application. Even though the...
Fancy selling into uncertainty? This could be a scenario for the NZD/USD in the lead up to the election in New Zealand which is way too close to call for either major political party right now (Labour vs National). Voting has been open all week and closes October 14, with the winner called the same day (but after the close of this trading week).
Polls have the...
WTI and Brent crude futures both jumped more than 4% to above $86 and $88 per barrel, respectively, on Monday, after a surprise attack by Hamas on Israel over the weekend.
More than 900 Israelis have lost their lives, with 130 more held hostage, and nearly 700 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s retaliation. A truce is unlikely in the short term....
Did the BoJ secretly intervene in USD/JPY on Tuesday? And is there more to come? For now, Bank of Japan officials have avoided explicitly stating whether they had stepped into the market to strengthen the yen. After the USD/JPY crossed 150.000 (its weakest levels in a year), a huge candle appeared on Tuesday touching as low as 147.300 before closing at 149.100. ...
Gold has now hit a seven-month low at $1,830 just as the US government avoids a shutdown.
Over the weekend, the U.S. Congress passed a stopgap funding bill. This means that important government information won't be delayed, and it won't make it harder for the Federal Reserve to decide what they might do with interest rates.
Traders are starting to believe...
WTI crude futures surged by 3.5% on Wednesday, briefly reaching above $94, marking their highest settlement price of 2023. This impressive rally followed the release of EIA data indicating a larger-than-expected decrease in US crude inventories, showing a 2.17 million barrel drop in the past week.
In parallel, Brent crude futures saw a substantial increase of...
On Monday, the USDJPY dollar hit an 11-month peak, a move triggered by the Federal Reserve's recent signaling of another potential interest rate hike and an intention to maintain higher rates for longer.
Then, (counter to expectations) the yen faced pressure when the Bank of Japan, on the preceding Friday, decided to maintain its ultra-low interest rates and its...
The big story of the day is of course the Fed signaling one more rate hike this year.
At the conclusion of its FOMC meeting a few hours ago, The U.S. Federal Reserve held interest rates unchanged, but projected another rate increase by the end of the year. Additionally, higher for longer is probably the new reality, with projections showing rates falling only...
A huge gap in USD/JPY has appeared to start the week after comments from Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda about a possible end to its negative interest rate policy (NIRP). In a Saturday Yomiuri newspaper interview, Governor Ueda mentioned that by the end of the year, the BOJ could accumulate enough data to assess whether the conditions are present to raise...
British Pound supported at $1.25?
The US dollar index is poised to reach a new multi-month peak. Contributing to DXY’s rise the most is the GBP/USD, with the pound losing 0.45% against the USD due to recent comments from the Bank of England’s governor.
On Wednesday, Governor Andrew Bailey spoke in front the Treasury select committee, saying " I think we are...
The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to keep its rate on hold in its meeting today, so there might not be anything interesting here. Do we think this rate decision is going to make more of an impact on the Aussie than the Australian GDP (Gross Domestic Product) figures that are released tomorrow? There has been talk of the Australian dollar being undervalued,...
Focus is growing on the upcoming nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report. In August, it's expected that there will be about 170,000 new jobs (compared to 187,000 in July).
The days leading up to this report have had some not-so-great job-related data, like the JOLTS and ADP reports. This has heightened expectations that the NFP might show fewer jobs than expected. The US...
