NZD Outlook: ANZ’s Forecast for Next Week
ANZ anticipates that the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will maintain its current interest rates at the August 14 meeting but may signal potential rate cuts before the year ends. Although ANZ estimates a small 10-15% chance that the RBNZ might shift to an easing bias during this coming meeting.
Markets are...
Gold has slipped below the $2,400 mark even as geopolitical tensions possibly escalate, with Israel bracing for potential retaliation from Iran. US intelligence indicates the response could come late Thursday or Friday.
Market attention is also directed towards the upcoming Initial Jobless Claims data, due on Thursday, which investors hope will provide further...
Mexico's inflation data will be released Thursday morning, closely followed by the Central Bank of Mexico's interest rate decision in the afternoon.
July's headline inflation in Mexico is expected to have accelerated to its highest level in over a year, according to a Reuters poll. However, the core index is anticipated to continue its moderation.
Rising...
US equities just experienced their worst day since 2022, with the S&P 500 dropping 3.0%, the Nasdaq falling 3.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeting by 1033 points. All sectors in the US saw declines, with mega-cap tech stocks performing particularly poorly. Notably, NVIDIA saw a sharp fall of 15% during the trading day, though it managed to...
Gold temporarily surged past $2,474 per ounce on Friday, marking a new record high, as a weak U.S. jobs report bolstered expectations of a dovish shift by the Federal Reserve. The U.S. economy added 114,000 jobs in July, significantly below the anticipated 175,000 increase.
Gold prices have since pulled back slightly but are still trading just above the 100-hour...
Tight BOE 5-4 Vote on Rate Cut Hinges on Bailey's Decision
A Reuters survey indicates that most economists anticipate the Bank of England (BOE) reducing interest rates at its August meeting. The poll revealed that over 80% of respondents expect a rate cut.
We could see a close decision by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), with a 5-4 split in favor of a rate...
BOJ Decision Countdown: Potential 15-Basis Point Rate Hike Leaked
The Bank of Japan is reportedly considering a 15-basis point interest rate hike, surpassing market expectations of a 10-basis point increase or no change at all, according to NHK. This comes as the U.S. Federal Reserve contemplates a rate cut, potentially as soon as September.
This could be why...
US SPX 500 – technical overview
Longer-term technical studies are in the process of unwinding from overbought levels. There is now room for a pullback towards previous resistance turned support in the form of the previous record high from April around 5,290 before the market considers a run to another record high.
R2 5679 – 16 July/Record high – Strong
R1...
It's a huge week for central banks with the Bank of Japan (BOJ), Federal Reserve (Fed), and Bank of England (BOE) set to deliver their decisions within a 32-hour window. Market activity remains largely subdued in anticipation.
The BOJ’s decision is the most unpredictable. Current market sentiment suggests a ~60% likelihood of a 10-basis point hike and a ~40%...
GBP/USD to Track 100-MA Slope?
On Wednesday, GBP/USD traders will focus on the UK's July Manufacturing and Services PMI, expected to show slight increases.
Although, more significant events will come from the U.S., including the annualized Q2 2024 GDP and the PCE Price Index.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge likely cooled in June, suggesting its efforts...
R2 159.45 – 12 July high – Medium
R1 158.86 – 16 July high – Medium
S1 155.37 – 18 July low – Medium
S2 154.55 – 4 June low – Strong
USDJPY – fundamental overview
A large carry trade unwind via Aussie and Mexican Peso sales against the Yen, along with increased odds for a BOJ rate hike at the end of the month were behind the latest run of Yen demand....
NZDUSD – technical overview
Overall pressure remains on the downside with the market continuing to stall out on runs up into the 0.6500 area. At the same time, there are some signs of the market wanting to put in a longer-term base. Ultimately, a break back above 0.6500 would be required to take the medium-term pressure off the downside and encourage this...
ETH/USD is expected to experience increased volatility this week, with spot Ethereum ETFs set to go live on Tuesday, according to Bloomberg. The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) is poised to finalize updates on the products today.
Ethereum ETFs follow the path of eleven trading spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have amassed over $54 billion in assets under...
3 Events to Watch: CrowdStrike, 25th Amendment, & US weather
CrowdStrike Oversold?
A widespread outage on Friday left computer screens blue, grounded flights, halted hotel check-ins, and disrupted freight deliveries, forcing businesses to revert to paper and pen.
The incident, allegedly triggered by an update from CrowdStrike (down ~12%), also affected...
Trade Alerts: SA Rates and BoC Decision
South African Inflation
South Africa is expected to maintain its key interest rates at 8.25% and 27.25% on Thursday, citing persistent inflationary pressures. Central bank Governor Lesetja Kganyago has emphasized that rate reductions are unlikely until inflation sustainably returns to the 4.5% midpoint of the target...
Political uncertainty in the U.S. could significantly impact the EUR/USD as markets brace for tomorrow’s ECB decision. The major political factor may not if President Biden steps down, but who steps up to take his place. Who will the markets like and who will they dislike? This could play out in the EUR/USD.
Biden has said he will reevaluate his candidacy if...
Trump, Fed Speculation Drive Gold to New Heights
Gold price cleared the May 20 high of $2450 on Tuesday, as expectations intensify that the U.S. Federal Reserve will commence an easing cycle in September. Fed Chair Jerome Powell addressed the Economic Club of Washington this week, noting the economy's solid performance and signaling potential rate cuts once...
Earnings season kicks off: Key reports to watch
Earnings season kicks into high gear as Novartis, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, UnitedHealth, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Progressive, Johnson & Johnson, Netflix, Abbott, Blackstone, Reliance, and American Express, prepare to report their financial results.
Recent weeks have seen a rally in...
