Undervalued Dollar? Democrats' Influence on Powell's Rate Cut Plans
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to present his semi-annual monetary policy testimony to the House and Senate starting this Wednesday. The market will be looking for Powell to provide a more specific timeline for interest rate cuts.
Currently, the market is pricing in three...
The key events for the week are concentrated mainly between Wednesday and Friday.
In the United States, the focus will be on January jobs data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials. The most important of the bunch is of course Federal Reserve Chair Powell two-day testimony in Congress on monetary policy starting Wednesday. Traders will look for cues...
How much longer can the kiwi sell off?
On Wednesday, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand opted to maintain interest rates, coupling this decision with dovish remarks and forward guidance.
Danske Bank economists anticipate a continued decline in NZD/USD in the upcoming year, setting a 12-month target at 0.5700. They think that the RBNZ contrasts with other G10...
Bitcoin touches 64K: Has it found its footing?
On January 22, CNBC's Jim Cramer said that it was " Unlikely that bitcoin finds its footing"
However, Bitcoin reached over $63,000 on Wednesday, marking its highest value since late 2021, even briefly touching $64,000 before turning a little lower.
As the Bitcoin halving in April approaches, reducing its...
Republican-led shutdown: What's at Stake for the USD??
We are four days away from a potential partial government shutdown, and negotiations among lawmakers have yet to produce a resolution.
On Monday, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Mike Johnson, and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries meet in...
Major Events in Euro Area and US on Friday
Friday is a significant day with Euro Area Consumer Price Index (CPI) and US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data on the radar.
Euro Area inflation likely eased to 2.5% in February, and the official report is expected on Friday after a rush of local economic data from the Euro Area. The European Central Bank...
25% chance of RBNZ rate hike on Tues?
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is likely to maintain its interest rate at the existing 5.50%, yet there might be a notable 25% probability of a 25-basis points hike.
Why? In part, the RBNZ provided a hawkish signal post its recent meeting.
The RBNZ's forward guidance suggests an inclination towards future hikes,...
Japan's economy recently slid to the fourth-largest position, trailing Germany. This shift is primarily attributed to a weakened Japanese yen. In 2023, Japan's GDP stood at approximately $4.2 trillion, while Germany's was around $4.45 trillion.
The weakness in the Japanese yen is pressuring BOJ Governor Kazuo Ueda to address this by tightening Japan's ultra-easy...
$3K gold in 2024 according to Citi
Citi bank suggests that gold prices might experience a surge of up to 50%, reaching $3,000 per ounce this year.
This projection is based on two potential scenarios. The first involves a continuation of central banks, particularly those in emerging markets like China, Russia, India, Turkey, and Brazil, increasing their gold...
On Tuesday, February 20, Canada will unveil the latest inflation data. It is anticipated that headline annual inflation will decrease to 3.2%, marking its first deceleration since October 2023, compared to December's figure of 3.4%. Bear in mind, the Bank of Canada's previously indicated that they expected inflation to persist near 3.5% until mid-2024. The...
Can AUD/USD claim more ground above 0.6500?
AUD/USD has been making a short-term comeback from its 2024 low, crossing the 0.6500 mark due to a weaker Dollar. But is its downtrend intact still, or are we seeing the start of a sustained turnaround?
Looking at the 4-hour chart, there are potential signs of a continued negative outlook, unless we see a break of...
Anticipation Builds for Bitcoin Halving Event
Bitcoin is currently holding strong above the $50,000 mark in anticipation for the event known as "the halving."
The Bitcoin halving is a regularly scheduled event that occurs approximately every four years, where the reward for miners is halved. Historical data indicates that after each halving event, Bitcoin’s...
Gold tumbles: Eyes on UK inflation next
The new numbers are in: Current market sentiment suggests a 79% chance in June and an even stronger expectation of a 92% chance for a cut in July.
The unexpectedly high US inflation figures have led to a reassessment of when the Federal Reserve might implement its initial rate cut.
The US dollar surged on this news,...
Preparing for markets to overreact to US inflation?
The week has started slowly in FX, largely attributed to the closure of most Asian markets for New Year holidays. But this quiet period is likely coming to an end, driven by the impending release of U.S. inflation data on Tuesday, followed by UK inflation data the following day.
Projections are for a decline...
NZ Economist's bold call opens opportunity in NZD?
Sharon Zollner, chief economist at ANZ (the country’s largest retail bank), says the RBNZ may lift interest rates to 6% at its next meetings in February (27th) and April. Zollner accounts for 25 basis points in each meeting.
This could potentially open some targets to the upside in the NZD/USD, including a...
Bullish or bearish signs build in USD/JPY?
The USD/JPY surpassed a crucial resistance level at 148.650 on Thursday and hit its highest value since November 2023.
The obvious next step is of course to explore the 150.00 threshold. However, any incremental advance beyond this point should be eyed with caution and uncertainty. The Yen faced is facing pressure...
GBP/USD Alert: Next Week's Inflation Forecast
The week is relatively quiet, so we are looking ahead to next week’s major events. With UK and US inflation released one day apart, perhaps the GBP/USD is the pair to watch.
On February 14, U.S. inflation rate data is set to be released. Despite the diminishing market expectations for a Fed rate cut in March, if...
Wolfe Research thinks NAS100 moves higher
Several mega-cap entities, including Meta and Nvidia, are propping up the Nasdaq 100, following Jerome Powell's 60 Minutes interview on Sunday, which has further diminished the likelihood of a March rate cut (currently below 20%, according to the Financial Times).
Potential support zones might materialize around the...
